431

Rock instability and risk analyses in open stope mine design

Mark S. Diederichs and Peter K. Kaiser

Abstract: Modern underground mining methods often call for the excavation of large, often unsupported voids called stopes. In many cases, these are non entry stopes, with the removal of broken rock (mucking) performed by remote control. With the risk to human safety thus reduced, stability concerns within the stopes are primarily driven by the economics of unplanned overbreak and waste rock dilution of the mined ore. In this context, it is appropriate to speak of acceptable risks of instability and to optimize design by balancing risk costs with productivity potential. Larger individual stopes generally increase productivity while reducing stability. The modified stability graph is a popular empirical mine design tool that has been calibrated to provide discrete recommendations for maximum stope dimensions based on a rock quality index. It seems appropriate to extend the method to account for variability in the calibration data and also for variability in each new set of input parameters. A risk template and associated probabilistic techniques are proposed to supplement the discrete design limits currently established.

Key words: risk, mining, stability, design, empirical.

Resume: Les methodes modernes d'extraction souterraine font regulierement appel it I'amenagement de cavites importantes et souvent non soutenues, appelees chambres. Dans de nombreux cas on a affaire it des chambres oil le personnel ne penetre pas, I'enlevernent de la roche brisee (nettoyage) se faisant par teleguidage, Le risque humain etant ainsi reduit, les soucis concernant la stabilite it linterieur des chambres decoulent principalement des consequences economiques d'une exploitation hors profil non planifiee et de la dilution du minerai dans la roche sterile. Dans ce contexte, il est approprie de parler de risque d'instabilite acceptable. On peut alors optimiser les operations en equilibrant les cofits associes au risque avec la productivite potentielle. Des chambres individuelles de grande dimension augmentent en general la productivite mais reduisent la stabilite, L'abaque de stabilite modi fie est un outil minier empirique populaire qui a ete etalonne en vue de fournir des recommendations discretes pour les dimensions maximales des chambres, it partir de I'indice de qualite de la roche. II parait approprie d'etendre la methode et de prendre en compte la variabilite des donnees d'etalonnage ainsi que les changements apportes par tout nouvel ensemble de parametres d'entree, Un modele formel de risque et des techniques probalistiques associees sont proposees pour completer les limites discretes actuellement acceptees,

Mots cles : risque, operations minieres, stabilite, conception, empirique.

[Traduit par la redaction]

Introduction

Dimensioning of open stopes and the decision to mine with or without stope support are among the most important decisions made by the geomechanics engineer during the mine design process. One of the useful design tools developed for this application is the empirical "stability graph method" originally proposed by Mathews et al. (1981). An excavation stability number (eq. 1 and Fig. 1) incorporating rockmass quality, induced stress, and excavation geometry is evaluated for the rock in the vicinity of a proposed open mine void or stope. The critical dimensions of the stope, expressed in terms of the hydraulic radii of the roof and walls, can then be determined to ensure stability of the excavation (Fig. 2). This method

Received August 21, 1995. Accepted February 7, 1995. M.S. Diederichs and P.K. Kaiser. Geomechanics Research Center, F217, Laurentian University, Sudbury, ON P3E 2C6, Canada.

Can. Geotech. J. 33: 431-439 (1996). Printed in Canada / Irnprime au Canada

was modified and calibrated for hard rock mining by Potvin (1988). Potvin's method, detailed in Hoek et a1. (1995), Bawden (1993), and in Hutchinson and Diederichs (1996), involves the calculation of a modified stability number, N':

[1]

where

RQD is rock quality designation (Deere et a1. 1967); In is the joint set number from the rock tunneling quality index, Q (Barton et a1. 1974);

Jr is the joint roughness number (Barton et a1. 1974) for the kinematically critical joint set;

Ja is the joint alteration number (Barton et a1. 1974) for the kinematically critical joint set; and

A, B, and C are parameters (Potvin 1988) evaluated as shown in Fig. 1.

The hydraulic radius, HR, of a stope face is calculated as the face surface area divided by the face perimeter. In the

-c
.... 0.8
0 ~~~~
...... n
0 0.6 Stope /
CO
L.I.. 8 ope
C/} 0.4
C/} 6 Slabbing
(I) 02 0
....
......
(J) .... 4
0 0
.:.! ......
0 0 2 4 6 8 o 12 0 2
0 CO
a: Ratio: LI1iaxial Compo Strength. UC.S. L.I..
...... 0
Max. Induced cerro, Stress. Umax c:
(I) 0 n 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
E Dip of Stope Face
......
III Staattr« vs. Stress C/}
::J
U OR
.... -c o ~
0 0.8
...... >-
0 ......
co .:; 8
L.I.. 0.6 ttl
c: ~ 6
0 0.4
:;. Sliding
CO 4
...... 02
c:
(I) 2
8 0
0 n 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
...... 0
c: True Angle Between Face and Joint 0 n 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
'0
"'") ( Angle ex Between Poles) Dip of Critical Joint 432

Fig. 1. Input parameters for the modified stability graph method.

Strength vs. Stress

modified stability graph method, each face is evaluated separately and the critical (i.e., maximum) dimensions are established to ensure operational integrity of the stope during mining. If the rock quality as defined by N' is too low or if the stope is too large (excessive HR), instability may occur, which leads to dilution of barren wall rock into the blasted ore. This reduces the effective grade of the mined ore and the associated milling revenue and increases haulage and treatment costs. If the instability is severe enough (as in the "caving" zone defined in Fig. 2), it can prevent the stope from being mined and prevent safe access to future mining areas. The limiting degree of instability where miner safety is at risk is much lower than is the case for mine operations. Consequently, stope design should be more conservative when personnel are to be present.

Discrete analysis

An example stability assessment is illustrated in Fig. 2. The stope is to be developed in a good quality rockmass (RQD = 80) with three dominant joint sets (in = 9). These joints are primarily smooth and planar (ir = 1.0), with light staining on most surfaces (ia = 1.0). Intact rock core exhibits a compressive strength of 160 MPa, while the maximum induced wall stress determined from modeling is approximately 30 MPa (A = 0.5 from Fig. 1). The critical joint set forms an angle of 45° with the stope face (the hangingwall is being analyzed in this example, as shown in Fig. 2), resulting in a B factor of 0.5. The hangingwall dips at 60°, resulting in a C factor of 5. The resultant discrete value of N' for this example is approximately 11.

The hanging wall being analyzed is 20 m along strike and 30 m down dip. This yields a hydraulic radius of 6 m. The associated point (N', HR) plots on the stability graph

Can. Geotech. J. Vol. 33, 1996

Structure vs. Gravity

as shown in Fig. 2 on the boundary between the stable and unstable zones proposed by Potvin (1988). This indicates that a hydraulic radius of 6 m represents the maximum prudent unsupported dimension to prevent instability and dilution in this stope. A decision to increase the dimensions beyond this point implies acceptance of both the increased risk of instability and the worsening consequences of this instability. For example, a substantial risk of minor block fallout from the stope walls may be acceptable in nonentry stopes, while only a small risk of large-scale caving can be tolerated.

Input variability and sensitivity

The deterministic approach described in the previous example cannot be expected to truly reflect any such absolute certainty in the rockmass parameters. It is desirable in such situations to determine the range of possible outcomes for N' based on some quantified variability in the input data. One such approach is Monte Carlo analysis. The approach involves the specification of discrete or continuous ranges of input for each parameter and the calculation of hundreds or thousands of unique outcomes (N' in this case) for different combinations of input parameters (Harr 1987). The selection of values for a given input function is biased according to the input probability functions or discrete probability ranges specified. The Latin hypercube technique bears similarities to Monte Carlo but is more efficient and stratifies the sampling domain to reduce "clumping" of input, which can invalidate the outcome (McKay et al. 1979; Hoek et al. 1995; Palisade Corporation 1994).

The mean or central values for each of the input parameters correspond approximately to the discrete values used in the previous example. Here, however, a variety of discrete

Diederichs and Kaiser

and continuous probability functions have been specified as input into the simulation. The resultant distribution of occurrence for N' based on over 1000 simulations is shown in Fig. 3.

While the histogram represents actual percentages of occurrence of N' within specified "bin" ranges, these probabilities divided by the nominal bin width gives the PDF or probability distribution function (Hoek et al. 1995). Note that in the case of N', it is more convenient to express the probability of occurrence and the PDF with respect to 10g1ON'. Once the outcome distribution (N' range) has been computed, it is necessary to overlay this distribution onto the design limits in the modified stability graph. Figure 4 illustrates this procedure for our example problem. In this case the hydraulic radius is assumed to be fixed and the boundaries of the design range have been reinterpreted as labeled. The upper bound of Potvin's (1988) unstable transition zone can be interpreted in engineering terms as the dividing line between 0% (above) and 100% (below) probability of some form of instability. The lower bound corresponds in a similar fashion to caving or major instability and possible loss of serviceability of the stope.

If the PDF for N' is draped across either of these design limits, the area inside the PDF curve below (or to the left of in Fig. 4b) the design limit gives the probability of occurrence of either instability or major caving as shown. The total area inside the PDF curve is always unity (100%). In this case the method shows that there is approximately a 45% chance of some form of instability occurring in the stope hangingwall during mining. This is indeed an expected result, since the discrete example point in Fig. 2 straddled the instability limit, intuitively indicating a nearly 50/50 result (stable/unstable). Note that according to this analysis, however, it is unlikely that the instability would lead to major caving « 1 % probability).

Probability based design limits

The procedure outlined in Fig. 4 utilizes a probabilistic range for the input data (N') only, but does not account for the uncertainty inherent in the actual design limits proposed by Potvin (1988). These limits are empirical and are based on 176 case histories by Potvin and another 13 by Nickson (1992). This data base is plotted in Fig. 5. The data base is divided into three categories: stable, caved, and unstable. Figure 6 shows the relative density of calibration cases at each point on the plot and gives a direct estimate of relative confidence in the calibration results. Clearly higher data densities in the vicinity of interest reflect a more reliable sampling. For the purposes of calibration, "caved" was defined by Potvin (1988) as instability involving greater than 30% of the face area. "Stable" indicates little or no visible signs of instability. Figures 7 and 8 reflect the relative concentrations of stable, unstable, and caved case histories in a sampling region adjacent to each point on the graph. The contours in Fig. 7 represent the relative local frequency of occurrence of calibration cases exhibiting any form of instability. All cases exhibiting instability or caving were assigned equal weighting. In Fig. 8, unstable cases were assigned 0.3 times the weighting of caving cases, corresponding to the 30% areal

433

Fig. 2. Example of stability assessment using the modified stability graph.

Example Input Data

ROD 80
In 9
Jr f
Ja f
A 0.5
B 0.5
C 5 N- ROD x Jr x AxBxC
- In Jij
Example: HR Area 2Ox30 6m
N= II Perimeter 40 + 60
1000
=
z -
-
'--
Q)
.0 100
E
:::J
Z
>.
....., 10
.0
CO
.....,
(f)
D =
Q) -
-
D
0
:2 0.1
0 5 10 15 20
Face Hydraul ic Radius. HR ( m ) involvement limit defined by Potvin (1988). The resultant plot yields isocontours of probability of major caving. Using the discrete example input data introduced earlier (N' = 11), it can be seen from Figs. 7 and 8 that the test hanging wall as proposed (HR = 6 m) will have a 35% probability of experiencing some form of instability and a 20% chance of major caving. The confidence in these probability values (Fig. 6) is relatively high because of the large local density of calibration data around the example point.

Input variability and calibration uncertainty

It is now possible to combine the two previous analyses to provide a risk assessment for the example stope that accounts for both input parameter variability as shown in Fig. 3 and uncertainty in the empirical calibration of the stability graph. In the example frequency (probability) histogram for 10g1ON' in Fig. 3, the height of each bar represents the probability that the actual value of loglON' falls within a range corresponding to 10glON' = ±0.05 of the center of each bar or bin. In Fig. 9, each such bin probability

434

Can. Geotech. J. Vol. 33, 1996

Fig. 3. Example of probabilistic simulation for N' incorporating input variabilities.

Input Parameter Distributions (Example)

I Ll_:WL11l1aLl~_1~1_L

60 80 100 6 9 12 1.0 1.5 0 1 2 3 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.8 2 5 8

ROD In Jr Ja ABC

N'- ROD Jr

---x-xAxBxC In Ja

Obtain Distribution for N' based

on above parametric inputs using Monte Carlo or Hypercube simulation

ModIfied Stability Number. N'

10 100

2
Q) 20
0
c
Q)
S15
0
0
°10
'0
c-,
...... 5
.0
co
.0 0
0
U: 0 Fig. 4. Estimation of instability and caving probabilities based on discrete design zones. Modified Stability NrrtJer. N

1;]' : '~':1"1

o "i~i

o Log N 1 2

z

5 10 15 20

Face Hydraulic Radius t rn )

(b)

BaSed on discrete desi{J7 zones for instability and caving :

PrObability of Instability (sl7aded area; see ri{jlf)

=45%

PrObability of Caving (total instability)

=<! % •

(A) is multiplied by the calibration data's probability of instability (B) from Fig. 7, computed for the respective incremental value of N' (HR = 6 m in the example). The resultant product values are then summed to yield the overall probability of instability as shown in Fig. 9. In this case, the overall result indicates a 35% chance of instability. This corresponds coincidentally to the previously plotted result in Fig. 7.

Risk and consequence

The calculated probability of undesirable occurrence is meaningless unless the consequences of the occurrence are understood. In open stope, nonentry mining, minor

instability in the form of small localized block fallout from the stope wall may be of little or no consequence, while major dilution and caving cannot be tolerated. Figure 10 shows the results of analyses, based on the procedure in Fig. 9, for a range of dimensions (HR) and for the distribution of N' calculated (Fig. 3) for our example stope. Both the probability and potential severity of instability increase with stope dimension. These probabilities are very high and would not be acceptable if safety instead of economics was the primary concern (as in civil engineering construction and nonremote mining). In this case, only openings with HR < 1.5 (3 m tunnel or 6 m cavern) could be considered safe if left unsupported, clearly an overconservative approach for mining. Design must instead be

Diederichs and Kaiser

Fig. 5. Calibration data base (data from Potvin 1988;

Nickson 1992).

1000-=r;::=========\T-----::::--~

z 0 0
05 100
.0
E
::J
Z
>.
+-'
:0 10
CO • •
+-' •
(f)
D
Q) •
D
0 • •
~ O.l---t--h-+,-h'=¥~'='F¥R'=FA~¥F'1

o 5 10 15 20

Face Hydraul ic Radius. Area/Perimeter t rn )

Fig. 6. Relative local density of calibration data points with respect to (N', HR).

1000=----------------,

z Insufficient
----
----
05 100 Low »>
/' /'
.0 /'
E /
::J Med/-/~/
z
>. f2m 1//
+-' -:
10
.0 H/g~
CO
+-' /....._/
(f)
D / /
Q) / / Med
D {_ /
0
~ I I Low
I",__j Density
0.1 of Case Data
0 5 10 15 20
Face Hydraulic Radius ( m ) based on risk cost, which is calculated as the product of the probability of the occurrence and the cost of the occurrence (Brummer and Kaiser 1994). The risk costs associated with instability in nonentry open stope mining have an economical impact on the viability of a mining operation in addition to the ever-present safety concerns. Risk-based design decisions, while being more sound than discrete analyses, are philosophically far more difficult due to the rarity of zero risk situations. From Fig. 10, it is not immediately apparent how much risk is acceptable and where the engineer should establish a design limit. If the degree of instability can be related to a risk cost, and if the financial benefits of larger stopes can be itemized as in Table 1 and then financially quantified, the stope dimensions can be

435

Fig. 7. Isoprobability contours for all forms of instability. 1000=-----------------,

z

Probability rZ) of Instability

05 100 .0

E

::J Z

c-,

+-'

:0 10
CO
+-'
(f)
D
Q)
-
D
0
~ O.l-+-+-'-''-,--.+-'------'r-T-.---'--'--r-T-,---,--,-r-r---l

o

5 10 15

Face Hydraulic Radius c m :

20

Fig. 8. Isoprobability contours for major instability or caving.

1000 =------------------,

z

Probability rZ) of Caving (i.e: Major Instability)

~ 100 E

::J Z

>.

+-'

.0 CO

Ci5

D Q)

D o ~

0.1 -+-+-.----1-,-....,-+-,----,-,-....,-,-,----,-,-....,--,--,----,-,--1

o 5 D ~ ~

Face Hydraulic Radius ( rn )

optimized as shown schematically in Fig. 11. General risk cost calculations for mine financial planning are extremely complex and are beyond the scope of this paper. The reader is referred to Gentry and O'Neil (1984) and to Smith (1995) and other mineral economics references.

In the existing empirical data base, only three qualitative consequence levels are defined: safe, unstable, and caving. These categories also represent increasing levels of dilution. Dilution in open stope mining is defined as the mass of waste mined divided by the expected (planned) mass of ore (Pakalnis et aI. 1995). Some dilution is expected because of the need to simplify ore geometry for blasting and retrieval. Of concern here is the unplanned dilution due to instability and caving. The risk of instability or caving

436

Can. Geotech. J. Vol. 33, 1996

Fig. 9. Combined analysis of input variability and empirical calibration uncertainty.

Modified Stability NJrrtJer. N'

10 100

z

Probability of Instability

HR=6m

ru~'-,,-r.-~-r.-,,-r.-,,-..-,,~

o 5 10 15

Face Hydraulic Radius t rn :

Fig. 10. Increasing risk with increasing stope dimensions. 100,-----------,----------,

80
~
~ 60
:0
til
.D
0 40
0::
20 Trends shown are for example:

rock mass described in tile I ~ew~pe~: -------~--------

- I I

N:>::12 I I

I I

________ + L

I I I

-------_j--

O+-'-'--.-.-+-+-.-'--'r-r-,-,-,-,-~

o 5 m 15

Face Hydraulic Radius (Area/Perimeter in m)

Fig. 11. Schematic principle of risk cost-benefit analysis.

Face Hydraulic Radius. HR ( rn )

-0:< 20
o~ en
6 ""Q)~ 15
...... =~
~ ~;~ 10
~ "8°2 5
~ 0:80 0
) o~ 100
2 [ll2 80
~ >..0'0
=~~ 60
15=_ 40
111.0 III
~ B~> 20
.8 0:~8 0
<::; 10
~ ~2
~ 8
~~aJ 6
a 4
B )( 2
0:0:< 0 I II
A
I,

I--
B
r--

(AB) Probability of Instability ~(AB) =35 %

Fig. 12. Typical economic consequence of dilution (based on Bawden et al. 1989).

30,-----------------------~

~

o

LLa:!

-55 ~ 20

roc Os

......,

DO) 2a:

c_

:::J 0 10 00)

~......,

.- ro Orr:

Case Study:

Mining Rate: 360000 t/year Tonnage: 2500000 t Grade: 20% Zinc

o

10 20 30 Average Dilution (%)

40

in Fig. 10 is based on the probability of occurrence for a single mining stope. Normally risk costs are defined as the product of the probability of an event, over a given service life or within a group of trials (stopes mined), with the cost (consequence) of the event. The averaging of historical stope-by-stope dilution values over a reasonable sampling of stopes results in an average dilution for the mine, which directly represents a risk cost to the mining operation. The impact of this average dilution value must be uniquely determined for every mining project.

While the evaluation of direct financial implications of dilution or other risks requires complex economic analysis (Planeta and Bourgoin 1990; Elbrond 1994; Smith 1995), Bawden et al. (1989) relate a discounted rate of return calculation to average dilution in a fictitious ore body, summarized in Fig. 12. It can be seen that the mining project ceases to be viable at a dilution value greater than 35%. While "instability" in the modified stability graph would typically indicate at least 2-5% additional dilution, "caving"

Diederichs and Kaiser

Fig. 13. (a) Average dilution for a Canadian mine (based on Pakalnis et al. 1995). (b) Estimated dilution risk.

z

20%

:0 co

U5

D Q)

D o ~

25%

T=Sm

•11

.

.

0.1 +.-r-T---.---,--,----,---.-r--.---r-T...,-,--r-r----r-r-.-I

o

5 10 15

Face Hydraulic Radius ( m )

20

~ ( b)
~
c 25
0 Average Seam
....... 20 Thickness = 5m ,,;"/
::J
0 Average N·=12 ,
D 15
Q)
.......
o 10
Q)
0.
x
w 5
Q)
OJ
co 0
._
Q) 0 5 10 15 20
>
« Face Hydraulic Radius ( m ) can be associated with unplanned dilution greater than 15-25%, depending on the stope volume, in a typical mining scenario.

Pakalnis et al. (1995) have made an attempt, for a specific mining environment, to overlay real dilution measurements on the stability graph. This data can be crudely contoured according to average dilution, as shown in Fig. 13a. These dilution values can be used directly in place of the probability values shown in Figs. 7 and 8 and multiplied by the example input variability (Fig. 3), similar to the procedure shown in Fig. 9. The average dilution for the mining project can be calculated (assuming no change in the mean stability number) in this way and represents the current risk cost directly. Figure 13b shows the result. The impact of this dilution must then be calculated in terms of net present value of the orebody or in terms of discounted cash flow rate of return according to standard mine economic analyses.

Dilution risk and support costs

Another option for reducing the risk costs associated with dilution is the use of rock support for walls of the open

437

Fig. 14. Typical cablebolt support system for an open stope mine.

2m Cablebolt Spacing Along Stope Strike

-

.

.

. ..

.

Cement Grouted Steel Cablebolt

Table 1. Economic costs (risks) and benefits to larger stope dimensions.

Costs (risks)

Benefits (potential)

Increased dilution

Reduced stope development costs

Increased cycle time

( develop-drill-blastextract-backfill) Increased production rate Reduced mine life Increased net present value

Increased unplanned delays

Lower mill grade

Extended mine life Decreased net present value

stopes. Cablebolts provide one of the only practical forms of support for inaccessible stope walls and roofs (Hutchinson and Diederichs 1996). Cablebolts are long flexible tendons made from multi wire steel strands, which are grouted into drilled holes. They are designed to reinforce and maintain the integrity of the rockmass. They have proved highly successful in controlling dilution (Anderson and Grebenc 1995). A typical cablebolt layout for the example stope of Fig. 1 is shown in Fig. 14. There are approximately 180 m of cable bolts in each "ring" as shown. The cablebolt "ring" shown would be typically spaced at about 2 m out of plane with the section, resulting in a cable bolt length

438

Can. Geotech. J. Vol. 33, 1996

Table 2. Effect of dilution on allowable unit cost (after Planeta and Bourgoin 1990).
Minimum Actual
Mining parameters Baseline dilution dilution
Total dilution (%) % 0.00 10.0 23.0
Diluted ore grade g/t 6.00 5.40 4.60
Total tonnage blasted 1.25 X 106 1.25 X 106 1.62 X 106
Drawn tonnage 1.19 X 106 1.39X 106 1.54X 106
Yearly mining t/year 0.18xl06 0.18Xl06 0.18xW6
Mining Life years 6.60 7.30 8.60
Gold recovery rate 0.90 0.90 0.90
Yearly revenue Can$/year 14.6X 106 13.1 X 106 11.2XI06
Baseline operating cost
(at Can$55/tonne) Can$/year 9.90X 106 9.90X 106 9.9XW6
Yearly gross profit Can$/year 4.68XW6 3.22XI06 1.28X 106
Total gross profit Can$ 31.0XI06 23.5XW6 11 X 106
Discounted gross profit Can$ 18.8X 106 13.8XW6 5.98xl06
Allowable unit operating cost for a
constant profit equivalent to baseline
(Can$ 18.8 X 106) Can$/tonne 55.0 48.4 39.7 to ore volume ratio of 1801900 = 0.2 m/m", If the unit mass of the ore is 3 t/rrr' and if the stope width is 5 m, this equates to approximately 0.067 m of cablebolt per tonne of ore. Cablebolts can typically cost up to 30.00 $CDN/m installed (Goris et al. 1994). This gives a unit support cost of 2.00 $/t of mined rock. Table 2 gives example calculations of maximum unit costs for a sustained profit given varying degrees of dilution. Note that if the dilution risk can be reduced from 23 to 10% by eliminating 13% due to uncontrolled hangingwall failure, the maximum allowable operating costs (for the specified constant profit) rise from 39.70 to 48.40 $/t. If cablebolts can be expected to decrease the dilution risk or average dilution by this amount (a reasonable expectation) and thereby reduce the risk cost by 8.70 $/t, then it can be seen that the 2.00 $/t unit cost of this additional support is well justified if the stope size cannot be reduced. The incremental cost of the support option could be compared to the incremental unit cost of mining with smaller stopes, which could (according to Figs. 9 and 13) remain unsupported and achieve a lower average dilution risk cost.

Note that the above cost analyses are based only on the direct financial impact of additional waste rock in the mining stream. A complete dilution cost analysis must also include the cost of unplanned downtime due to the necessity of reblasting over-sized waste, the risk of forfeited stopes due to excessive caving, the threat to remote machinery working in the stope, and other incidental consequences. Some of these are discussed in Anderson and Grebenc (1995).

Conclusions

Variability and uncertainty in calibration and input data must be considered in empirical analyses, since deterministic stability limits are not justified. Decisions based on probability of failure are difficult because of a lack of obvious "stable-failed" transitions. Decisions can be made, however,

on the basis of the economics of stope dimensioning and rock support application. Average waste rock dilution directly represents a risk cost associated with stope instability. Financially based "risk cost-benefit analysis" is applicable to open stope mine design because of the lack of safety concerns associated with wall failure. Financially based risk analyses are difficult to apply to issues of human safety in mining. In these cases acceptable risk increment criteria similar to those used in civil and environmental applications must be implemented.

References

Anderson, B., and Grebenc, B. 1995. Controlling dilution at the Golden Giant Mine. Canadian Institute of Mining, Mine Operator's Conference, Timmins, February 19-22.

Barton, N.R., Lien, R., and Lunde, J. 1974. Engineering classification of rock masses for the design of tunnel support. Rock Mechanics, 6(4): 189-239.

Bawden, W.E 1993. The use of rock mechanics principles in Canadian underground hard rock mine design. In Comprehensive rock engineering. Vol. 5. Edited by J. Hudson. Pergamon, Oxford, pp. 247-290.

Bawden, W.E, Nantel, J.H., and Sprott, D. 1989. Practical rock engineering in the optimization of stope dimensionsapplication and cost effectiveness. CIM Bulletin, 82(926): 63-70.

Brummer, R.K., and Kaiser, P.K. 1994. Risk-cost-benefit analysis for support design in burst-prone mines. Presented at the Institute of Mining and Metallurgy Conference, Risk Assessment in the Extractive Industries, University of Exeter, Exeter, U.K., March.

Deere, D.U., Hendron, A.J., Patton, ED., and Cording, E.J. 1967. Design of surface and near surface construction in rock. Proceedings of the 8th U.S. Symposium on Rock Mechanics, New York, pp. 237-302.

Elbrond, J. 1994. Economic effects of ore losses and rock dilution. CIM Bulletin, 87(978): 131-134.

Gentry, D.W., and O'Neil, T.J. 1984. Mine investment analysis.

Society of Mining Engineers, New York.

Diederichs and Kaiser

Goris, 1.M., Nickson, S.D., and Pakalnis, R. 1994. Cablebolt support technology in North America. Washington: United States Department of the Interior, Washington, Bureau of Mines Information Circular No. IC9402.

Harr, M.E. 1987. Reliability-based design in civil engineering.

McGraw-Hill, New York.

Hoek, E., Kaiser, P.K., and Bawden, W.F. 1995. Support of underground excavations in hard rock. A.A. Balkema, Rotterdam.

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