After completing this chapter you should be able to:
List the elements of a good forecast.
Outline the steps in the forecastingprocess.
Evaluate at least three qualitative fore-casting techniques and the advantagesand disadvantages of each.
Compare and contrast qualitative andquantitative approaches to forecasting.
Describe averaging techniques, trendand seasonal techniques, and regressionanalysis, and solve typical problems.
Explain three measures of forecastaccuracy.
Compare two ways of evaluating andcontrolling forecasts.
Assess the major factors and trade-offsto consider when choosing a forecastingtechnique.
Introduction, 74Features Common to All Forecasts, 75Elements of a Good Forecast, 76Forecasting and the Supply Chain 76Steps in the Forecasting Process, 77Forecast Accuracy, 77
Summarizing Forecast Accuracy, 78
Approaches to Forecasting, 80Qualitative Forecasts 80
Executive Opinions, 80Salesforce Opinions, 81Consumer Surveys, 81Other Approaches, 81
Forecasts Based on Time-Series Data, 82
Naive Methods, 82Techniques for Averaging, 83Other Forecasting Methods, 89Techniques for Trend, 89Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing, 92Techniques for Seasonality, 93Techniques for Cycles, 98
Associative Forecasting Techniques, 98
Simple Linear Regression, 98Comments on the Use of LinearRegression Analysis, 102Nonlinear and Multiple RegressionAnalysis, 103
Monitoring the Forecast, 103Choosing a Forecasting Technique, 107Using Forecast Information, 109Computer Software in Forecasting, 109Operations Strategy, 109
M&L Manufacturing, 130Highline Financial Services,Ltd., 130
Introduction to OperationsManagement
Competitiveness, Strategy, andProductivity
Product and Service Design
Strategic Capacity Planning forProducts and Services
Process Selection and FacilityLayout
Work Design and Measurement
Location Planning and Analysis
Management of Quality
Aggregate Planning and MasterScheduling
MRP and ERP
JIT and Lean Operations
Supply Chain Management
Management of Waiting Lines