local market trends
The Real Estate Report
S
ANTA
C
RUZ
C
OUNTY
Strouse Realty GroupAmerican Dream Realty
5522 Scotts Valley Dr.Scotts Valley, CA 95066(831) 338-6481Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.comhttp://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com
DRE #01228878
Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A.
Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A. | Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com | (831) 338-6481
M
ORE
STATISTICS
…
Year-over-year, home inventory was down for thefirst month since last March: -0.6%.The sales price to list price ratio turned around lastmonth and dropped one point to 96.8%.Pending sales were off for the ninth month in a row:14.7%. All these statistics are year-over-year.
I
N
THE
CONDO
MARKET
…
the median price was down 11.9% year-over-year.Condos sales were flat year-over-year.Pending sales were down for the eighth month in arow year-over-year: 24.2%.Inventory, on the other hand, increased for theeleventh month in a row: up 38% year-over-year.Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same.For complete information on a particular neighbor-hood or property, call. Although sales of single-family, re-sale homesunexpectedly fell compared to March, a very unu-sual event, they were up in April, year-over-year,for the fourth month in a row by a healthy 33%.The median price for single-family, re-sale homesin Santa Cruz County was down 14.7% year-over-year, while the average price declined 11.3%.
S
ALES
MOMENTUM
…
although still negative, started trending upward lastmonth and is now at –5, a gain of 4 points.Our momentum stats are calculated using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. Bycomparing this year’s 12-month moving average tolast year’s, we get a percentage showing marketmomentum.
P
ENDING
MOMENTUM
…
a harbinger of future sales, while still positive, hasbeen trending downward. Last month the number was –3, a decline from +1 the month before.
P
RICING
MOMENTUM
…
after peaking at +12% last August, has also beentrending downward and is now at –3.
Home Sales Up Fourth Month in a Row
M
AY
/J
UNE
2011
Inside This Issue
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L
OCAL
M
ARKET
T
RENDS
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M
ORTGAGE
R
ATE
O
UTLOOK
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2
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H
OME
S
TATISTICS
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2
>
F
ORECLOSURE
S
TATS
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3
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C
ONDO
S
TATISTICS
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A
NNUAL
T
ABLES
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4
Apr 11 Mar 11 Apr 10
Median Price:470,500$ 480,000$ 551,500$
Average Price:523,754$ 534,374$ 590,673$
Units Sold:133167100Inventory:637580641Sale/List Price Ratio:96.8%97.8%97.1%Days on Market:8910165Days of Inventory139104186
Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%06FMAMJ JASOND07FMAMJJASOND08FMAMJJASOND09FMAMJJASOND10FMAMJJASOND11FMA
Santa Cruz County Homes:
Sales MomentumSales Pending Median
© 2011 rereport.com
The Real Estate Report
Page 2
Mortgage Rate Outlook
3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%01-0504-0507-0510-0501-0604-0607-0610-0601-0704-0707-0710-0701-0804-0807-0810-0801-0904-0907-0910-0901-1004-1007-1010-1001-1104-11
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A.
Strouse Realty GroupAmerican Dream Realty
5522 Scotts Valley Dr.Scotts Valley, CA 95066(831) 338-6481Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.comhttp://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com
DRE #01228878
The chart above shows the Nationalmonthly average for 30-year fixedrate mortgages as compiled byHSH.com. The average includes mort-gages of all sizes, including conforming,"expanded conforming," and jumbo.
Apr 29, 2011
--Mortgage rates, seemingly as uncon-cerned about inflation as the Fed appears to be,found new reasons to drift downward, and there maybe reason to believe that we could see more of thisas Summer approaches.HSH.com'soverall mortgage tracker -- our weeklyFixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) -- found thatthe overall average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mort-gages declined by three basis points (.03%) to 5.06% A key component of the first-time homebuyer market,FHA-backed 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by justtwo basis points, falling to 4.72% for the week. Hybrid5/1 ARMs averaged 3.66% this week, down five-hundredths of a percent from last week's average.The Fed released their new forecast for GDP growthand inflation for the coming year. The new forecastscall for slower economic growth (centering around a3.2% annual pace, down from about 3.7% in theJanuary forecast). Inflation expectations wereratcheted up considerably; the Personal Consump-tion Expenditure (PCE) inflation (the Fed's preferredgauge) increased from a January forecast of about1.5% to a new 2.4% expectation. Essentially, growthis expected to be weaker and inflation higher.Growth is already weaker and inflation rising. Theinitial estimate of GDP growth for the first quarter of this year came in at 1.75%, a considerable downshiftfrom the 3.11% clip seen in the fourth quarter of 2010. PCE inflation for the quarter climbed to 3.5%from 1.7% in 4Q10, and "core" PCE moved from0.4% to 1.5% over the same three-month period. Inhis press session, Mr. Bernanke took some pains toexpress that the Fed believes these inflation trendsare "transitory"; rising food and gasoline prices mayindeed foster slower growth, and such slowing wouldeventually serve to cool price pressures, but wouldcarry unwanted implications for the economy as well.The Fed again characterized the housing sector as"depressed". Even outstanding mortgage rates arefailing to overcome poor economic conditions whichare perpetuating a lack of demand. Plus, home pricesare still softening in many areas, and that removesthe urgency for a potential homebuyer to move quick-ly. Sales of new homes did move higher in March,but the 300,000 annualized rate of sale remainsamong the weakest on record. At the moment, thereare about 7.3 months of available supply, with183,000 units built and ready to sell. In the face of such soft demand, builders won't or can't build more"on spec" in hopes of finding future buyers.
CitiesMedianAverageSalesPendInvenDOISP/LPMedAveSales Pend2Inven
County,,.%-.-.%.%-.-.%ptos,,.-.-..-.-.Capitola,,.%-.%-.%-..%.%Rio del Mar,,.%.%.%..%-.Seacliff,,.%-.-.%.%-..%San Lorenzo Vly,,.%-.-.%.%-..%Soquel,,.%-.-.%-..%.%Scotts Valley,,.%-.-.%.%.%-.%Santa Cruz,,.%-.%-.%.%.%.%East County,,.%-.%-.%-.-..%West County,,.%-.-.%.%.%.%Watsonville,,.%-.%-.%.%-..%
Santa Cruz County - April 2011
Single-Family Homes% Change from Year Before
PricesPrices
020406080100120140160180200$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800$900$1,00007FMAMJJASOND08FMAMJJASOND09FMAMJJASOND10FMAMJJASOND11FMA
S i n g l e - f a m i l y H o m e S a l e s M e d i a n & A v e r a g e P r i c e s
Santa Cruz County Homes
-Prices & Sales
(3-month moving average—prices in $000's)
Table Definitions _______________
Median Price
The price at which 50% of priceswere higher and 50%were lower.
Average Price
Add all prices and divide by thenumber of sales.
SP/LP
Sales price to list price ratio or theprice paid for the property divided bythe asking price.
DOI
Days of Inventory, or how manydays it would take to sell all theproperty for sale at the current rateof sales.
Pend
Property under contract to sell thathasn’t closed escrow.
Inven
Number of properties actively forsale as of the last day of the month.
Page 3
Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A.
Strouse Realty GroupAmerican Dream Realty
5522 Scotts Valley Dr.Scotts Valley, CA 95066(831) 338-6481Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.comhttp://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com
DRE #01228878
Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure pro-cess, in Santa Cruz County decreased 32.1% in Marchfrom the year before. Notices were up 14.7% from Feb-ruary.Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auc-tion, and serve as the homeowner's final notice beforesale, were down 22.3% year-over-year, and down16.9% from January. After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there areonly three possible outcomes. First, the sale can becancelled for reasons that include a successful loanmodification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal re-quirement to re-file the notice after extended postpone-ments. Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, thebank will place the opening bid. If a third party, typicallyan investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, theproperty will be sold to the third party; if not, it will goback to the bank and become part of that bank's REOinventory.
F
ORECLOSURE
STATISTICS
In January, cancellations were up 11.7% year-over-year, and up 11.7% from February.Properties going back to the bank rose in March fromFebruary by 22.6%. Year-over-year, properties goingback to the back also rose 22.6%.The total number of homes that have had a notice of default filed declined by 20.1% in March compared toMarch 2010. They were down 2.7% from February.The total number of homes scheduled for sale de-creased by 6.3% from February, and, were down 3.9%year-over-year.Unfortunately, the total number of homes owned by thebanks was up 24.8% year-over-year. Ouch!
-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%
07FMAMJJASOND08FMAMJJASOND09FMAMJJASOND10FMAMJJASOND11FMA
Santa Cruz County Homes:
Year-Over-Year Median Price Change
CitiesMedianAverageSalesPendInvenDOISP/LPMedAveSales Pend2Inven
County,,.%-.%-.%.%-.%.% Aptos,,.%-.%-.%.%-.%.%Capitola,,.%-.%.%.%-.%-.%o e ar,,..-.-...Scotts Valley,,.%-.%-.%.%.%-.%Santa Cruz,,.%.%-.%.%-.%.%Watsonville,,.%-.%-.%.%-.%.%
Santa Cruz County - April 2011
Condos/Townhomes% Change from Year Before
PricesPrices
051015202530354045$100$200$300$400$500$600$70007FMAMJJASOND08FMAMJJASOND09FMAMJJASOND10FMAMJJASOND11F
lMedian&AveragePrices
Santa Cruz County Condos
-Prices & Sales
(3-month moving average—prices in $000's)
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