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1.1 Introduction
1.2 What is Simulation?
1.3 Why Simulate?
1.4 When to Simulate
1.5 Conclusion
Exercises
References
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Modelling the Progress of Time
2.2.1 The time-slicing approach
2.2.3 The continuous simulation approach
2.3 Modelling Variability
2.3.1 Modelling unpredictable variability
2.3.2 Random numbers
2.3.3 Relating random numbers to variability in a simulation
2.3.4 Modelling variability in times
2.3.5 Sampling from standard statistical distributions
2.3.6 Computer generated random numbers
2.3.7 Modelling predictable variability
2.3.8 Summary on modelling variability
2.4 Conclusion
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Visual Interactive Simulation
3.3 Simulation Software
3.4.5 Step 4: Evaluate the software in relation to the criteria
3.4.6 Step 5: Software selection
3.5 Conclusion
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Simulation Studies: An Overview of Key Modelling Processes
4.2.1 Simulation modelling is not linear
4.2.2 Something is missing!
4.3 Simulation Project Time-Scales
4.4 The Simulation Project Team
4.5 Hardware and Software Requirements
4.6 Project Costs
4.7 Project Selection
4.8 Conclusion
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Conceptual Modelling: Important but Little Understood
5.3 What is a Conceptual Model?
5.4 Requirements of the Conceptual Model
5.4.1 Four requirements of a conceptual model
5.4.2 Keep the model simple
5.5 Communicating the Conceptual Model
5.5.1 Simulation project speciﬁcation
5.5.2 Representing the conceptual model
5.6 Conclusion
Exercise
6.1 Introduction
6.2 A Framework for Conceptual Modelling
6.2.1 Developing an understanding of the problem situation
6.2.2 Determining the modelling objectives
6.2.3 Designing the conceptual model: the inputs and outputs
6.2.4 Designing the conceptual model: the model content
6.2.5 The role of data in conceptual modelling
6.2.6 Summary of the conceptual modelling framework
6.3 Methods of Model Simpliﬁcation
6.3.1 Aggregation of model components
6.3.2 Excluding components and details
6.3.3 Replacing components with random variables
6.3.4 Excluding infrequent events
6.3.5 Reducing the rule set
6.3.6 Splitting models
6.3.7 What is a good simpliﬁcation?
6.4 Conclusion
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Data Requirements
7.3 Obtaining Data
7.3.1 Dealing with unobtainable (category C) data
7.3.2 Data accuracy
7.3.3 Data format
7.4 Representing Unpredictable Variability
7.4.1 Traces
7.4.2 Empirical distributions
7.4.4 Traces versus empirical distributions versus statistical distributions
7.4.5 Bootstrapping
7.5 Selecting Statistical Distributions
7.5.1 Selecting distributions from known properties of the process
7.5.2 Fitting statistical distributions to empirical data
7.6 Conclusion
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Structuring the Model
8.3 Coding the Model
8.3.1 Separate the data from the code from the results
8.3.2 Use of pseudo random number streams
8.4 Documenting the Model and the Simulation Project
8.5 Conclusion
9.1 Introduction
9.2 The Nature of Simulation Models and Simulation Output
9.2.1 Terminating and non-terminating simulations
9.2.2 Transient output
9.2.4 Other types of output
9.2.5 Determining the nature of the simulation output
9.3 Issues in Obtaining Accurate Simulation Results
9.3.1 Initialization bias: warm-up and initial conditions
9.3.2 Obtaining sufﬁcient output data: long runs and multiple replications
9.4 An Example Model: Computer User Help Desk
9.5 Dealing with Initialization Bias: Warm-up and Initial Conditions
9.5.1 Determining the warm-up period
9.5.2 Setting initial conditions
9.5.3 Mixed initial conditions and warm-up
9.5.4 Initial conditions versus warm-up
9.6 Selecting the Number of Replications and Run-Length
9.6.1 Performing multiple replications
9.6.2 Variance reduction (antithetic variates)
9.6.3 Performing a single long run
9.6.4 Multiple replications versus long runs
9.7 Conclusion
10.1 Introduction
10.2 The Nature of Simulation Experimentation
10.2.1 Interactive and batch experimentation
10.2.2 Comparing alternatives and search experimentation
10.3 Analysis of Results from a Single Scenario
10.3.1 Point estimates
10.3.2 Measures of variability
10.4 Comparing Alternatives
10.4.1 Comparison of two scenarios
10.4.2 Comparison of many scenarios
10.5.2 Experimental design
10.5.3 Metamodelling
10.5.4 Optimization (‘‘searchization’’)
10.6 Sensitivity Analysis
10.7 Conclusion
11.1 Introduction
11.2 What is Implementation?
11.2.1 Implementing the ﬁndings
11.2.2 Implementing the model
11.2.3 Implementation as learning
11.3 Implementation and Simulation Project Success
11.3.1 What is simulation project success?
11.3.2 How is success achieved?
11.3.3 How is success measured?
11.4 Conclusion
12.1 Introduction
12.2 What is Veriﬁcation and Validation?
12.3 The Difﬁculties of Veriﬁcation and Validation
12.3.1 There is no such thing as general validity
12.3.2 There may be no real world to compare against
12.3.3 Which real world?
12.3.4 Often the real world data are inaccurate
12.3.5 There is not enough time to verify and validate everything
12.3.6 Conﬁdence not validity
12.4 Methods of Veriﬁcation and Validation
12.4.1 Conceptual model validation
12.4.2 Data validation
12.4.3 Veriﬁcation and white-box validation
12.4.4 Black-box validation
12.4.5 Experimentation validation
12.4.6 Solution validation
12.5 Independent Veriﬁcation and Validation
12.6 Conclusion
13.1 Introduction
13.2 Types of Simulation Model
13.4 Conclusion
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Wiley Simulation the Practice of Model Development and Use

# Wiley Simulation the Practice of Model Development and Use

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