Welcome to Scribd, the world's digital library. Read, publish, and share books and documents. See more
Download
Standard view
Full view
of .
Look up keyword or section
Like this
1Activity
0 of .
Results for:
No results containing your search query
P. 1
Are Talking Heads Blowing Hot Air

Are Talking Heads Blowing Hot Air

Ratings: (0)|Views: 26 |Likes:
Published by Ken Connor

More info:

Published by: Ken Connor on May 12, 2011
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

Availability:

Read on Scribd mobile: iPhone, iPad and Android.
download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
See more
See less

05/12/2011

pdf

text

original

 
1
Are Talking Heads Blowing Hot Air?
An Analysis of the Accuracyof Forecasts in the Political MediaPublic Policy 501
Holly DonaldsonRuss DoubledayScott HeffermanEvan KlondarKate Tummarello
 
2
Table of Contents
Abstract ........................................................................................................................................3Introduction ..................................................................................................................................4Literature Review .........................................................................................................................5Methodology ................................................................................................................................8The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly ...............................................................................................15
The Good ....................................................................................................................................
17
The Bad ......................................................................................................................................
27
The Ugly ....................................................................................................................................
40Components of Predictive Accuracy .........................................................................................46Analysis .....................................................................................................................................47Implications ...............................................................................................................................51Conclusion .................................................................................................................................59Works Cited ...............................................................................................................................60
 
3
Abstract
We evaluated the predictions of politicians, journalists, and pundits (collectively, “prognosticators”) over a16-month period surrounding the 2008 United States federal elections. We sought to test the accuracy of these predictions and understand what makes individuals unusually good or bad at prognostication. We evaluated a random sample of 
Meet the Press, This Week,
and 
Face the Nation
transcripts and printed columns from themost prominent American prognosticators. Ultimately, we determined that some prognosticators are signicant-ly better than others, and there are characteristics that signicantly impact a prognosticator’s predictive power. After nding which characteristics make an accurate prognosticator, we ranked prognosticators based onoutcomes. We found that a number of individuals in our sample, including Paul Krugman, Maureen Dowd, Ed  Rendell, Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, and Kathleen Parker were better than a coin ip (sometimes, substan-tially so.) A number of prognosticators were frequently inaccurate, including Cal Thomas, Lindsey Graham,and Carl Levin. Our paper explores the reasons for these differences and attempts to evaluate the purpose of  prognosticators in the media in light of their varying degrees of accuracy.

You're Reading a Free Preview

Download
scribd
/*********** DO NOT ALTER ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE ! ************/ var s_code=s.t();if(s_code)document.write(s_code)//-->