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Modelling flood extent with 3b42 satellite rainfall

Modelling flood extent with 3b42 satellite rainfall

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Published by Albert Grela
The present study explores the error propagation from satellite rainfall estimates into the modelling of the flood plain extent in the Semois basin (Belgium). The area near Villers-sur-Semois (49.69° Lat N, 5.56° Long E, 5.8 ha) has been modelled with a ID2D software suites (ISIS free) forced with discharge inputs from 3 different sources : the observed gauged flow, the simulated flow based on rain gauges data and the simulated flow based on the 3b42 v6. multi-satellite product of the Tropical Rain Monitoring Mission (TRMM) providing a rainfall rate every 3hours for a cell size of 0.25 deg. Precipitations were transformed into discharge with the revitalised FSRlFEH rainfallrunoff method which is part the Flood Estimation Handbook in UK. The flood plain based on the 3b42 data appears grossly overestimated (135% of the observed flow flood extent) or underestimated (50%) depending on the event chosen, clearly dismissing the adequacy of the dataset. The flood plain modelled with the observed discharge and the one modelled based on the rain gauge data appear quite similar in their maximum extent but present a different temporal dynamic. They present a good similarity with the flood risk map prepared by the regional authorities. The modelled flow based on the rain gauges has a Nash Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency between 0.23.and 0.33 according to the event modelled.
The present study explores the error propagation from satellite rainfall estimates into the modelling of the flood plain extent in the Semois basin (Belgium). The area near Villers-sur-Semois (49.69° Lat N, 5.56° Long E, 5.8 ha) has been modelled with a ID2D software suites (ISIS free) forced with discharge inputs from 3 different sources : the observed gauged flow, the simulated flow based on rain gauges data and the simulated flow based on the 3b42 v6. multi-satellite product of the Tropical Rain Monitoring Mission (TRMM) providing a rainfall rate every 3hours for a cell size of 0.25 deg. Precipitations were transformed into discharge with the revitalised FSRlFEH rainfallrunoff method which is part the Flood Estimation Handbook in UK. The flood plain based on the 3b42 data appears grossly overestimated (135% of the observed flow flood extent) or underestimated (50%) depending on the event chosen, clearly dismissing the adequacy of the dataset. The flood plain modelled with the observed discharge and the one modelled based on the rain gauge data appear quite similar in their maximum extent but present a different temporal dynamic. They present a good similarity with the flood risk map prepared by the regional authorities. The modelled flow based on the rain gauges has a Nash Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency between 0.23.and 0.33 according to the event modelled.

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Categories:Types, Research, Science
Published by: Albert Grela on May 12, 2011
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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02/20/2014

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THE UNIVERSITY OF HULL
Flood plain modelling
based
on
TRMM 3b42
satellite
rainfall.Lessons
learned
from
the
Semois
basin
being a Dissertation submitted in partial
f~lfilment
of
the requirements
for
the-Degree
of
Master
of
ScienceGIS
&
Environmental Modelling
in
the University
of
Hull
by
Albert Grela, Agr EngSeptember 2010
 
Flood plain modelling based
on TRMM
3b42 satellite rainfall.Lessons learned from the Semois basinSummaryThe extensive flood damages sustained worldwide cost approximately
20
billions
f:
a year.These natural catastrophes have a certain level
of
predictability allowing preparedness,mitigation and defences. The key to minimizing the damages lies
in
the precision
of
theprediction
of
the flood extent and dynamic. The present study explores the error propagationfrom satellite rainfall estimates into the modelling
of
the flood plain extent
in
the Semoisbasin (Belgium). The area near Villers-sur-Semois (49.69° Lat
N,
5.56° Long
E,
5.8
ha)
hasbeen modelled with a
ID2D
software suites (ISIS free) forced with discharge inputs from 3different sources : the observed gauged flow, the simulated flow based
on
rain gauges dataand the simulated flow based
on
the 3b42 v6. multi-satellite product
of
the Tropical RainMonitoring Mission (TRMM) providing a rainfall rate every 3hours for a cell size
of
0.25deg. Precipitations were transformed into dischal'ge with the revitalised FSRlFEH rainfallrunoff method which is part the Flood Estimation Handbook
in
UK. The flood plain based
on
the 3b42 dataappears grossly overestimated (135%
of
the observed flow flood extent) orunderestimated (50%) depending on the event chosen, c1early dismissing the adequacy
of
thedataset. The flood plain modelled with the observed discharge and the one modelled based
on
the rain gauge data appear quite similar in their maximum extent but present a differenttemporal dynamic. They present a good similarity with the flood risk map pl'epared
by
theregional authorities. The modelled flow based
on
the rain gauges has a
Nash
Sutcliffecoefficient
of
efficiency between 0.23.and 0.33 according to the event modelled.Additional online presentation
of
the study :http://web.me.comlalbert.grelal3b42_flood...J)lain/Welcome.html
 
Abstract
Abstract
The extensive flood damages sustained worldwide cost approximately
20
billions
f
ayear. These natural catastrophes have a certain level
of
predictability allowingpreparedness, mitigation and defences. The key to minimizing the damages lies inthe precision
of
the prediction
of
the flood extent and dynamic. The present studyexplores the error propagation from satellite rainfall estimates into the modelling
of
the flood plain extent in the Semois basin (Belgium). The area near Villers-surSemois (49.69° Lat N, 5.56° Long E , 5.8 ,ha) has been modelled with a
ID2D
software suites (ISIS free) forced with discharge inputs from 3 different sources: theobserved gauged flow, the simulated flow based
on
rain gauges data and thesimulated flow based
on
the 3b42 v6. multi-satellite product
of
the Tropical RainMonitoring Mission (TRMM) providing a rainfall rate every 3hours for a cell size
of
0.25 deg. Rain were transformed into discharge with the revitalised FSRlFEHrainfall-runoff method which is part the Flood EstimatIon Handbook in UK. Theflood plain based
on
the 3b42 data appears grossly overestimated (135%
of
theobserved flow flood extent) or underestimated (50%) depending
on
the eventchosen, clearly dismissing the adequacy
of
the dataset. The flood plain modelledwith the observed discharge and the one modelled based
on
the rain gauge dataappear quite similar
in
their maximum extent but present a different temporaldynamic. They present a good similarity with the flood risk map prepared by theregional authorities. The modelled flow based
on
the rain gauges has a NashSutcliffe coefficient
of
efficiency between 0.23.and 0.33 according to the eventmodelled.

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