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Population momentum: Why 15.8 Billion should be viewed as an emergency

Population momentum: Why 15.8 Billion should be viewed as an emergency

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Published by TheWecskaopProject
How near-term momentum (right-now) can lock us into calamitous and increasingly inescapable collision trajectories. If astronomers discovered a near-earth asteroid on a collision trajectory with our planet by 2100, NASA engineers and international space agencies would need to make immediate preparations to nudge the object away from its collision trajectory. Another trajectory has just appeared that may promise an equally-dangerous collision by century's end and had best receive our attention now. (Caution -: If you notice or experience symptoms of a J-curve, it is important to contact your local physicist immediately!)
How near-term momentum (right-now) can lock us into calamitous and increasingly inescapable collision trajectories. If astronomers discovered a near-earth asteroid on a collision trajectory with our planet by 2100, NASA engineers and international space agencies would need to make immediate preparations to nudge the object away from its collision trajectory. Another trajectory has just appeared that may promise an equally-dangerous collision by century's end and had best receive our attention now. (Caution -: If you notice or experience symptoms of a J-curve, it is important to contact your local physicist immediately!)

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Published by: TheWecskaopProject on May 12, 2011
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial No-derivs

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01/09/2014

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Wworldshould b
Thisone
y
 
the U.N.’s newest population projectionviewed as an emerge cy
 
Many have already read the newesMay 2011 which.raised.their previ  jecting that earth's worldwide popu2041), but also that we are heading picted upper left).In the past, most jections. This new case is different,(1) The newest projections (May, 20.sooner .than previously expected (2
headed toward 
.even
higher
numbe
 
 billion instead of nine billion).
Caution -
If you notic
Why thprojection
This J-curve
is anunfolding disaster
** May 5, 2011
world population projections released by theous worldwide
medium-fertility
assessments slation will not only reach
NINE
billion in justo
 
ward more than
TEN
billion by the close of thof us would simply have focused on the neweshowever, because:11) have just informed us that not only will our 041) – but also that the newest U.N. medium-fer rs.than contemplated by their 
previous
medium
e or experience J-curve symptoms whilereading this article, contact your local physicist imm
U.N.'s newest world populatioshould be viewed as an emerge
This one
,
like the trajectoof a near-eartasteroid,threatens globobliteration
nited Nations
in earlyo that they are now pro-three decades (by aboutis century (see graph de-“medium-fertility” pro-inth billion likely arriveility projections
show us
-fertility projections (ten
ediately.
ncy
ryl
 
(2) In addition, the U.N.’s newe
is just 
½
child per woman hig 
“near-earth asteroid,” a potentia between our planet and more tha
Firstly,
right now, literally huincluding enormous portions of ginning to enter their childbearidecisions and family-size decisi(and over the next 20-30 years)bers that can become nearly inexactly the same (or largely-simtries right now (say 4, 5, or moenter a powerful trajectory towa
[This is not hyperbole. In the months imost demographers (Joseph Chamie, f grapher with the PRB) separately wrotefollows]:
1
Chamie, J.
2011.
As Africa M
2
Chamie, J.
2011.
Africa’s De
( 13 June 2011)
3
Haub, C.
2011.
What If Expert
http://e360.yale.edu/
 As a second example, supposebillion child-bearing couples 20-fertility rates
ddo not occurd
vening years result in 1.5 billionthe same fertility rates to eitherthe 1.5 billion couples adding 50
s
 
t “high-fertility” projections, which contemplat
her than
the “medium-fertility” projections, thl real-world possibility with a trajectory that counN
FIFTEEN BILLIONN
of us (
15.8 billion
)
 
(3)
Thirdly, not only do we still have the ttion growth (an additional billion added eoverpopulation,but a quite serious matter
 
MENTUMM
is now emerging as a third daing, and
nearly inescapable factor that is 
 
our civilizations, our planet 
, and the
o
onl
 
machinery so far known to exist anywhere
(What is this thing called populat
It is a directional momentum that, like anlong time to slow down or reverse even wi And one classical recipe for populationmously large portion of a population that i(which means their childbearing years liewith high fertility rates, which factors, whcascade of births that can carry a nationunstoppable demographic destinies.dreds of millions of earth’s “Under-20sgenertheir numbers in the world’s poorest and higheg years
right now
. And, all other factors heldns, non-decisions, and events in the
immedi
can unleash or impart a demographic momentscapable short of catastrophe. If their quite poilar) fertility and family-size decisions that alreare children per woman), humankind’s worldwiderd the U.N.’s higher-end population numbers.
mmediately following the U.N.’s May 2011 population projecrmer Director of the U.N.’s population division, and Carl Hthree articles warning exactly of such high-end trajectories
ltiplies
http://www.theglobalist.com/StoryId.aspx?StoryId=922
ographic Multiplication
http://www.theglobalist.com/
s Are Wrong On World Population Growth?
eature/what_if_experts_are_wrong_on_world_popul
hat demographic “projections” (guesstimates) eto-30 years from now, but then their expectedat all or do not occur as rapidly as imagined.child-bearing couples (instead of the projected ofuture group (1.5 billion couples versus one billi% more offspring to the next generation, with t
a
 
n average fertility thateaten to become, like ald carry us to a collisiony century’s end.
win problems of popula-ery 12-to-15 years) andof 
MPOPULATION MO-
gerous, highly unforgiv-
threatening to slam into 
 y
 
 y
planetary life-supporti
 
n the universe.
ion momentum?)
aircraft carrier, takes ah all engines full-astern.momentum is an enor-is less than 20-years-old just ahead), combineden combined, produce a(or a planet) into nearlyation around the world,st-fertility LDCs, are be-qual, their demographic
te
future (
right now
)m to humankind’s num-erful generation makesdy prevail in their coun-demographic future will
tions, two of the world’s fore-aub, a 30-year-veteran demo-. Links to their articles are as
8
(11 July 2011)storyid.aspx?StoryId=9167
ation_growth/2444/
vision an estimated oneor hoped-for declines inf those near-term inter-ne billion), then applyingon couples) will result inhe effects of these near-

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