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Sudan - Rule of Law Deployments

Sudan - Rule of Law Deployments

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Published by David Shinn
Remarks by David Shinn, former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia and Burkina Faso and adjunct professor of international affairs at George Washington University, on May 13, 2011, at Rule of Law: Sudan Case Study, hosted by the Walker Institute at the University of South Carolina. Updated July 1, 2011.
Remarks by David Shinn, former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia and Burkina Faso and adjunct professor of international affairs at George Washington University, on May 13, 2011, at Rule of Law: Sudan Case Study, hosted by the Walker Institute at the University of South Carolina. Updated July 1, 2011.

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Published by: David Shinn on May 13, 2011
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1Rule of Law: Sudan Case StudyHosted by the University of South Carolina¶s Walker Institute, Washington, D.C.1 July, 2011Remarks by David H. ShinnAdjunct Professor, Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington UniversityAs the focus in this course is on deployment overseas to support the rule of law, I will layout the key issues in this Sudan case study that face the governments in both the South and Northas they implement the historic division of the country.South Sudan¶s week-long referendum in January 2011 to determine whether voters preferred continued unity with the North or secession resulted in a 99 percent vote for independence. Although the goal of the 9 January 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement(CPA) was to work to make unity of northern and southern Sudan attractive, this goal failed. Neither the North nor the South made a serious effort to make unity attractive. In the case of theSouth, any real thought of pursuing unity probably died with the death of the Sudan People¶sLiberation Movement (SPLM) leader John Garang in a helicopter crash soon after the CPA cameinto effect. For its part, the northern government never made a serious effort to take those stepsthat might have led to a vote for unity. To the surprise of many, however, the referendum took  place on schedule and was relatively peaceful. The terms of the CPA, which created thetransitional government of South Sudan and the Sudanese Government of National Unity, willcontinue until the end of the CPA on 9 July 2011. South Sudan is on the way to becoming anindependent state and Khartoum has already opened a consulate in Juba that it will upgrade to anembassy after July 9.
Challenges to Be Resolved
There are some serious unresolved issues between the North and South. They include:
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Approximately 75 percent of the producing oil fields are located in the South while the pipeline for export and the refinery capacity are controlled by the North. The two sides mustagree on a formula for sharing the oil revenue or both entities will face economic disaster.This should be an issue where the North and South can find a solution that benefits both of them and there could be agreement by July 9.
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The initial goal was to have a second referendum on 9 January 2011 on the future of Abyeiregion where there are conflicting loyalties between the Ngok Dinka who live there
 
2 permanently and prefer attachment to the South and the Misseriya, a nomadic Arab people,who use the land for pasturage during the dry season each year and prefer attachment to the North. This referendum did not take place. The future of Abyei must be resolved beforethere can be peace between the North and the South. The North introduced armed forces intoAbyei resulting in occasional clashes. The conflict in Abyei resulted in the displacement of more than 100,000 Ngok Dinka. Although there is some oil in Abyei, it is relativelyinsignificant. The two sides avoided a major conflict by agreeing on a temporary solution for administration of the region and allowing 4,200 Ethiopian troops under UN mandate toreplace Sudanese forces.
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There is agreement on about 80 percent of the border between the North and the South. Thetwo sides must reach agreement on 7 separate sections of the border that constitute theremaining 20 percent. There is a Border Committee that has responsibility to reachagreement on the disputed areas and to demarcate the border. It will be impossible to resolveall of these issues before 9 July.
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There are significant groups of people in Southern Kordofan Region, especially the NubaMountains, and Blue Nile Region who are contending their future status. The consultationshave been completed for Blue Nile Region but no agreements announced.
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Southern Kordofan, which is north of the border, lies on a fault line between North and SouthSudan. Following elections earlier this year in Sudan, oil-rich Southern Kordofan did nottake part and only held elections on 2 May to elect a state governor and the state assembly.The elections were generally peaceful. An NCP-backed candidate won the governership by anarrow margin and the popular Nuban opposition candidate cried foul. Consultations amongthe people are now expected to take place. In the meantime, northern troops moved intoSouthern Kordofan, creating another crisis.
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The citizenship of southerners who remain in the North and northerners who remain in theSouth has not been resolved. The North wants to solve this problem by establishing anagreement on ³soft borders´ that will permit northerners and southerners to cross withoutvisas. The South may be willing to accept this solution, although it prefers a solutionwhereby northerners living in the South and southerners living in the North can choose their citizenship. Article 7 of the interim northern constitution permits dual nationality. This provision will not likely survive following the division of Sudan. The African Union HighLevel Implementation Panel on Sudan has taken the position that all persons should be permitted to remain where they are and keep their jobs and property. This principle seems to be generally accepted. There has been, however, no agreement on the amount of time persons will have to decide if they want citizenship in the North or South.
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Sudan has a debt of $38 billion, mostly to bilateral donors and commercial banks. Theremust be an agreement on who assumes this debt and how much donor nations, commercial banks and multilateral organizations are willing to write off. Not surprisingly, South Sudandoes not want to assume any of it. The African Union High-Level Implementation Panel onSudan has argued that this debt should be forgiven.
 
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The interim constitutions for both the North and South expire on 9 July 2011. Both entitiesneed new constitutions. The government of South Sudan released its draft transitionalconstitution in April. It is expected to be approved by July 7; South Sudan will then need to prepare a permanent constitution. Nine small South Sudan political parties announced they pulled out of the constitutional review committee following disagreements on power-sharingwith the SPLM.
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For its part, if the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) in the North excludes other points oview from the constitutional discussions, it will create a series of new problems. Agreementon the new constitution is an opportunity for the North to create a more inclusivegovernment.
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There are some 24,000 southern Sudanese students at the University of Khartoum; about4,000 have already left for the South where there is not space in southern universities. It isnot clear what will happen to the southern students who remain in the North or those whotravel to the South and find no openings.
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Between 150,000 and 260,000 southern Sudanese have already left the North for the South.Unemployment is high in the South and it will be difficult to absorb these and futuremigrants into the southern economy. Thousands ended up in transit camps or temporaryquarters.
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Under the CPA, SPLM military units were assigned to the North and northern units assignedto the South. Some of these units remain in place. There are some southerners serving innorthern units in the South. After the referendum, some mutinied as they insisted onremaining in the South and keeping their military equipment. This resulted in conflict andkillings involving northern and southern troops in these units.
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The security arrangements in the CPA expire on 9 July. The 9
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and 10
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divisions of theSPLA from the Nuba and Blue Nile areas have some 40,000 active troops. Because of the presence of these forces, the North maintains contingency forces and three Sudan ArmedForce divisions nearby. This creates considerable tension. The goal is to establish ademilitarized buffer zone along the north-south border manned by a UN force.
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Darfur rebels continue to operate out of South Sudan and pose a challenge to both thegovernments of the North and the South.
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The future relationship between the North and South will be critical. Whether this is anamicable or hostile divorce, the North and South will remain neighbors.
D
ealing with the Future
Looking forward, there are a number of considerations that will play a major role as the North and the South cope with their new situation. While there are many issues that separate theSPLM and President Omar Bashir¶s NCP, politically the two groups need each other to helpensure their respective hold on power. Economically, the North and the South remain joined atthe hip, especially because 75 percent of the oil is located in the South while the entire exportand refining capacity is located in the North. But senior South Sudan officials have already

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