Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Republic of Korea
Economic Bulletin
Policy Issues
The 2012 guidelines on budgeting 42
Statistical Appendices 51
The Green Book
Current Economic Trends
Overview
The Korean economy stayed on an upward track, with employment and business sentiment
steadily improving, and inflation slowing down, as cold waves eased and foot-and-month
disease was brought under control.
Mining and manufacturing production went up 1.4 percent month-on-month in March
backed by rising demand from strong exports and with the number of working days
returning to normal from the previous month when the Lunar New Year holiday fell and
resulted in fewer working days. Service output gained 2.0 percent from the previous month,
helped by boosted domestic demand amid increasing employment.
In March retail sales rose 2.9 percent month-on-month, as the adverse effect of unusual cold
spells and foot-and-month disease had been removed, and the positive effect of new car
releases set in.
Facilities investment increased 2.9 percent month-on-month in March, while the manufacturing
operation ratio posted a solid performance of 82.5 percent. Construction investment improved
for the first time in three months, rising 13.4 percent from the previous month.
Three month moving average of the cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index fell
0.1 percentage point in March affected by the previous month’s poor performance. The
leading composite index fell 0.8 percentage points year-on-year due to worsening consumer
sentiment and net terms of trade.
Although imports soared due to rising oil prices, a trade surplus in April expanded to US$5.8
billion from the previous month’s US$2.8 billion, as exports continued to be brisk despite
the aftermath of the Japanese earthquake.
Employment in March continued to improve, adding 469,000 jobs, as strong exports and
eased foot-and-mouth disease contributed to job generation in agricultural, forestry &
fishery industries as well as manufacturing and services sectors.
Although high international commodities prices pushed up those of manufactured products,
consumer prices rose at a slower rate of 4.2 percent than the previous month’s 4.7 percent,
due to drops in fresh food prices. Core consumer prices, which exclude goods reflecting
changes in supply situations with their high price volatility, narrowed an increase month-on-
month from 3.3 percent to 3.2 percent.
In April stock prices rose and foreign exchange rates fell, as the business performance of
domestic companies brought about foreign capital inflows and the dollar depreciated.
Both home prices and rental rates, led by the Seoul metropolitan area, posted a slower
increase than the previous month in April, as wait-and-see attitude prevailed with the
moving season nearing an end.
To sum up, although the overall global economy has recovered, there are growing
uncertainties such as political unrest in the Middle East, worries over Japan’s radiation leak,
and the European fiscal crisis.
The Korean government will closely watch any changes in economic situations and flexibly
respond to them with microeconomic as well as macroeconomic measures, so that the
Korean economy can be on its way to solid recovery with employment steadily improving
and inflation stabilizing. On the other hand, the government will continue to pursue an
economy strong enough to deal with external changes such as high oil prices on its own,
while stepping up efforts to improve the real economy, to which lives of working classes are
closely related.
Economic Bulletin 3
1. Global economy
The global economy, despite lingering uncertainties, has seen robust growth in developing
countries such as China and gradual recovery in advanced countries including the US. There
are continuing uncertainties from rising oil prices as a result of political instability in the
Middle East, the effects of Japan’s earthquake and the renewed European financial crisis.
US
The US economy, affected by heavy snow, cold waves, sharp rises in energy prices and a
reduction in fiscal expenditures, slowed down in the first quarter of 2011 compared with the
previous quarter, posting 1.8 percent growth (advanced estimate, annualized q-o-q).
In March the ISM manufacturing index dropped for the second month in a row, while
industrial production and retail sales improved 0.8 percent and 1.5 percent month-on-
month, respectively.
In February, housing prices fell for the eighth consecutive month based on the S&P/Case-
Shiller Home Price Index, but in March the new and existing home sales rose 11.1 percent
and 3.7 percent, respectively, compared with the previous month.
The labor market stayed on a gradual recovery track in March, as unemployment fell 0.1
percentage point to 8.8 percent and non-farm payrolls increased at a faster rate.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on April 27 that the growth slowdown would
be temporary, and predicted that gradual growth would continue until the end of 2011.
4 May 2011
1-1 US GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate)
Source: US Department of Commerce
Economic Bulletin 5
China Despite China’s austerity measures in the first quarter, the country’s economy grew 9.7
percent year-on-year backed by strong industrial production and consumption. However, the
economy faced continued inflationary pressure due to a rise in grain and raw material prices
as well as higher demand. In 2011 the People’s Bank of China raised the interest rate twice
and banks’ reserve ratio four times in order to meet the target inflation rate of 4 percent.
M2 growth (y-o-y, %)
19.3 (Oct 2010) 19.5 (Nov) 19.7 (Dec) 17.2 (Jan 2011) 15.7 (Feb) 16.6 (Mar)
Japan The Japanese economy saw industrial production and retail sales significantly decline
affected by the March 11 earthquake, while exports slowed down. On April 28, the Bank of
Japan revised down its economic forecast for 2011 from 1.6 percent to 0.6 percent.
(Percentage change from previous period)
2009 20101 20111
Annual Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar
Real GDP -6.3 4.0 1.5 0.5 0.8 -0.3 - - -
Industrial and mining production -21.9 16.4 7.4 0.7 -1.1 -0.1 -2.0 1.8 -15.3
Retail sales (y-o-y) -2.3 2.5 3.8 3.7 3.2 -0.4 -3.0 0.1 -8.5
Exports (y-o-y) -33.1 24.4 43.2 33.2 17.8 10.0 2.4 9.0 -2.3
Consumer prices (y-o-y) -1.4 -0.7 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
1. Preliminary Source: Japan’s Statistics Bureau and Statistics Centre
Eurozone While Eurozone’s economy gradually improved, fiscal problems reemerged following
Portugal’s request for an EU bailout on April 6 and concerns over the Greek debt
restructuring. The European Central Bank raised the policy rate from 1.0 percent to 1.25
percent on April 7 in response to growing inflation.
(Percentage change from previous period)
2009 1 20111
2010
Annual Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar
Real GDP -4.0 1.7 0.4 1.0 0.3 0.3 - - -
Industrial production -14.9 7.1 2.4 2.4 1.0 1.7 - 0.5 -
Retail sales -2.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 - 0.3 -
Exports (y-o-y) -18.1 20.1 12.9 22.3 22.8 21.8 - 23.1 -
Consumer prices (y-o-y) 0.3 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.7 2.4 2.7
1. Preliminary Source: Eurostat
6 May 2011
1-4 China’s GDP and fixed asset investment
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
Economic Bulletin 7
2. Private consumption
Private consumption (advanced estimate of GDP) increased 0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter
and 3.0 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2011.
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2009 2010 1 20111
Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Private consumption2 0.0 -4.7 -1.1 0.4 5.6 4.1 6.6 3.5 3.6 2.9 3.0
(Seasonally adjusted) 3 - -0.3 3.7 1.4 0.9 - 0.5 0.7 1.4 0.3 0.5
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts 3. Percentage change from previous period
Source: The Bank of Korea
In March, retail sales climbed 2.9 percent month-on-month and 4.9 percent year-on-year
with sales of durable, semi-durable and non-durable goods rising 1.5 percent, 2.9 percent
and 3.4 percent, respectively. The increases, partly due to a low base effect, came as new
vehicles were released, and a cold wave and foot-and-mouth disease subsided.
On a year-on-year basis, durable and semi-durable goods sales expanded 14.9 percent and
4.6 percent, respectively, whereas those of non-durable ones declined 0.4 percent affected
by higher prices of food and petroleum products.
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2009 2010 20111
Annual Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar
Consumer goods sales 2.7 6.6 9.7 4.9 7.5 5.1 4.9 -0.8 4.9
(Seasonally adjusted) 2 - - 0.6 -0.1 3.3 0.8 1.0 -6.2 2.9
- Durable goods3 8.2 14.9 29.6 5.6 17.0 10.6 12.8 9.1 14.9
・Automobiles 21.8 11.1 48.9 -2.1 12.0 0.1 10.2 3.0 19.0
- Semi-durable goods 4 1.3 6.8 2.5 6.2 6.6 11.1 6.0 2.0 4.6
- Non-durable goods 5 1.2 2.2 3.2 3.3 3.0 -0.7 0.6 -7.0 -0.4
1. Preliminary
2. Percentage change from previous period
3. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc.
4. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc.
5. Non-durable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobacco, etc.
Source: Statistics Korea
Sales of nonstore retailers and supermarkets jumped by 8.2 percent and 7.8 percent month-
on-month, respectively, while all sales categories improved due to a low base effect. On a
year-on-year basis, all sales categories such as nonstore retailers, department stores,
specialized retailers and large discounters posted an increase.
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2009 2010 20111
Annual Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar
- Department stores 4.3 8.8 7.5 9.2 7.4 10.5 11.5 2.8 10.2
- Large discounters -2.2 4.4 5.4 4.1 7.6 0.8 3.5 -11.0 2.0
- Specialized retailers 2 3.0 5.6 9.7 1.8 7.3 4.2 4.3 1.9 4.1
- Nonstore retailers 8.7 15.6 20.1 17.9 11.4 13.5 11.2 3.2 12.1
1. Preliminary
2. Specialized retailers are defined as stores carrying a few (1 to 3) specialized items.
Source: Statistics Korea
8 May 2011
2-1 Private consumption
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
Economic Bulletin 9
Consumer goods sales are projected to go on with the increase, given the purchasing power
strengthened by rebounding employment and the stock price rise, improving consumer
sentiment in line with slowing down inflation, and advanced indicators showing an upward trend.
Sales of gasoline decreased for the second month in a row due to high oil prices, but domestic
credit card use and sales at department stores and large discounters continued to rise.
The number of workers hired has grown amid a continuous wage increase, which has led to
a rise in consumption.
Although the consumer sentiment index registered at the benchmark of 100, it turned to an
increase for the first time in five months, showing signs of picking up.
However, considering uncertainties in the global economy such as rising international oil prices
and the renewed European financial crisis, consumer sentiment may possibly deteriorate.
10 May 2011
2-4 Department store and discount store sales (current value)
Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (monthly retail sales)
Economic Bulletin 11
3. Facility investment
Facility investment (advanced estimate of GDP) in the first quarter of 2011 posted a quarter-
on-quarter decrease of 0.8 percent and a year-on-year gain of 12.0 percent.
Facility investment in March rose 2.9 percent month-on-month and 0.3 percent year-on-year,
backed by strong transportation equipment investment. Facility investment is projected to
go on with solid growth, given rising investment demand in line with economic recovery,
positive signs in leading indicators and improving business sentiment.
2010 2011
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Business survey indices (base=100) for
103 103 104 104 102 103
manufacturing facility investment projections
Source: The Bank of Korea
12 May 2011
3-1 Facility investment by type
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
Economic Bulletin 13
4. Construction investment
Construction investment (advanced estimate of GDP) in the first quarter of 2011 fell 6.7
percent quarter-on-quarter and 11.9 percent year-on-year.
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2009 20101 20111
Annual Q3 Q4 Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q11
Construction investment2 3.4 3.2 4.0 -1.4 4.3 -2.3 -3.1 -2.9 -11.9
(Seasonally adjusted)3 - -1.2 0.7 - 2.0 -4.2 -0.8 -1.0 -6.7
- Building construction -2.3 0.2 2.4 -2.9 4.5 -5.1 -6.3 -2.8 -
- Civil engineering works 11.6 8.2 5.6 0.5 4.0 1.0 1.7 -2.9 -
1. Preliminary
2. National accounts
3. Percentage change from previous period
Source: The Bank of Korea
The value of construction completion (constant) in March, as both building construction and
civil engineering works improved in some parts, gained 13.4 percent month-on-month, while
losing 9.2 percent year-on-year.
2010 2011
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Business survey indices (base=100) for
81.3 77.5 87.0 80.5 59.1
construction projections
Source: The Construction and Economy Research Institute of Korea
14 May 2011
4-1 Construction investment
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
Economic Bulletin 15
5. Exports and imports
Exports in April increased 26.6 percent (preliminary) year on year to US$49.77 billion.
The average daily exports rose to a record high of US$2.12 billion, as exports continued to
grow amid global economic recovery.
By business category, exports of petroleum products (up 78.9%), vessels (up 54.6 %), and
automobiles (up 35.7%) surged, while those of semiconductors (down 0.7 %) slightly
decreased.
By regional category, exports to Japan (up 64.8 %), the Middle East (up 46.0 %), the ASEAN
countries (up 38.8%), and the US (up 17.7%) surged, while those to EU (up 13.5%) and
China (up 9.8%) stayed on an upward trajectory.
(US$ billion)
2009 2010 2011
Annual Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb Mar Apr1
Exports 365.53 466.38 101.08 120.24 116.32 128.75 44.60 38.61 48.07 49.77
(y-o-y, %) -13.9 28.3 35.8 33.1 22.7 23.8 45.1 16.9 28.9 26.6
Average daily exports 1.30 1.70 1.51 1.76 1.72 1.79 1.94 2.03 2.00 2.12
Imports 323.08 425.21 98.16 105.63 105.70 115.73 41.76 36.15 45.29 43.95
(y-o-y, %) -25.8 31.6 37.4 42.8 24.6 24.6 32.4 16.4 27.3 23.7
Average daily imports 13.16 1.46 0.47 1.54 1.57 1.61 1.82 1.90 1.89 1.87
1. Preliminary
Source: Korea Customs Service
Imports in April increased 23.7 percent (preliminary) year on year to US$43.95 billion.
Rising international commodities prices and recovering domestic demand led to increasing
import, in particular that in raw materials (up 23.7%) and consumer goods (up 28.9%).
(US$ billion)
2009 2010 2011
Annual Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb Mar Apr1
Trade Balance 40.45 41.17 2.93 14.61 10.62 13.02 2.92 2.46 2.78 5.82
1. Preliminary
Source: Korea Customs Service
16 May 2011
5-1 Exports (customs clearance basis)
Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
Economic Bulletin 17
6. Mining and manufacturing production
Mining and manufacturing production in March, free from the holiday effect, rose 1.4 percent
month-on-month and 8.7 percent year-on-year, as exports continued to be brisk.
By business category, primary metals (up 4.2%) and automobiles (up 2.5%) increased
month-on-month, while audio-visual communications equipment (down 7.9%) and
semiconductors and parts (down 1.8%) went down.
The month-on-month increase in shipment (up 2.6%) outpaced that in inventories (up
0.4%), and the manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio declined in two months.
By business category, the shipments of other transportation equipment (up 9.4%) and
semiconductors and parts (up 5.8%) increased month-on-month, while those of audio-visual
communications equipment (down 5.6%) and machinery (down 1.5%) declined. The
inventories of machinery (up 6.6%) and primary metals (up 6.2%) climbed month-on-month,
while those of computers (down 12.8%) and semiconductors and parts (down 1.0%) fell.
The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector improved 0.1 percentage point to
82.5 percent, hovering above the 10 year average of 78.3 percent between 2000 and 2010 by
4.2 percentage points.
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) 81.2 80.4 80.8 81.5 83.2 84.8 82.4 82.5
activity Production capacity 7.2 6.2 7.4 7.0 6.7 7.0 6.9 6.4
1. Preliminary
2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry
3. Information and Communications Technology
4. End-period
Source: Statistics Korea
Mining and manufacturing production is expected to stay on an upward track, with exports
steadily growing, labor-management conflicts in the automobile industry being eased and
production in the steel industry increasing.
Exports (y-o-y, %)
21.4 (Nov 2010) 22.6 (Dec) 45.2 (Jan 2011) 16.9 (Feb) 28.9 (Mar) 26.6 (Apr1)
Major steel producers including POSCO recently revealed their plans to increase production
in line with growing demand.
18 May 2011
6-1 Industrial production
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
6-3 Inventory
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin 19
7. Service sector activity
Despite sluggish hotels & restaurants and real estate & renting, service activity in March
increased 2.0 percent month-on-month due to improving wholesale & retail sales and
transportation services. The increase was also helped by robust exports and eased adverse
effects of cold waves and foot-and-mouth disease. On a year-on-year basis, service activity
increased 2.7 percent.
Service activities in hotels & restaurant and real estate & renting decreased due to the
devastating earthquake in Japan and a delay in real estate market’s recovery. Meanwhile,
educational services suffered a slowdown for three consecutive months affected by the poor
performance of private institutions.
With service activities in other areas showing an even growth, transportation services
significantly increased, affected by increasing freight volume amid robust exports.
Service activity is expected to continue an upward trend in April helped by active economic
activities amid economic recovery, robust logistics performance and expanded consumption.
20 May 2011
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Economic Bulletin
21
8. Employment
The number of workers on payroll in March increased by 469,000 from a year earlier, while
the employment rate (seasonally adjusted) rose by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to
58.3 percent.
By industry, employment in manufacturing (up 198,000), services (up 243,000) and agriculture,
forestry & fishery (up 71,000) climbed while that in construction (down 50,000) declined.
Hiring in manufacturing maintained a high growth rate helped by increasing production in mining.
The service sector continued to expand employment with increasing health & welfare (up
208,000), business assistance (up 100,000) and professional, scientific & technical services
(up 78,000).
By status of workers, the number of regular workers (up 617,000) and daily workers (up
25,000) increased whereas temporary workers (down 194,000) decreased. Non-wage
workers (up 30,000) went up slightly as self-employed workers (down 25,000) decelerated
the decline.
22 May 2011
8-1 Number of employed and employment growth
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin 23
The number of unemployed persons in March increased by 68,000 year-on-year to
1,073,000.The unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) rose by 0.2 percentage points to
4.3 percent.
The youth unemployment rate was up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 9.5 percent as
job seekers who actively looked for jobs amid economic recovery and people who applied
for national examination for local public officers were counted as unemployed persons.
The economically inactive population in March was down 74,000 from a year earlier to
16,000,000. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate (seasonally adjusted) rose 0.6
percentage points year-on-year to 60.9 percent.
The number of workers quitting jobs due to rest, time-off and leisure (up 142,000) and
housework (up 36,000) increased, while those who quit jobs due to old age (down 113,000),
education (down 58,000) and childcare (down 22,000) decreased.
- Childcare 40 48 19 15 -125 -112 -118 -126 -149 -107 -44 -22 -44
- Housework 148 125 100 235 201 192 237 175 303 189 85 36 130
- Education 31 58 11 -36 12 -25 -74 23 46 55 -40 -58 -16
- Old age 88 102 105 92 80 191 193 59 43 25 -121 -113 -103
- Rest, time-off and leisure 123 112 94 123 -56 -140 -187 -27 15 -27 244 142 241
Source: Statistics Korea
24 May 2011
8-4 Employment rate
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin 25
9. Financial market
9.1 Stock market
Helped by strong domestic and overseas earnings and inflows of global liquidity, the Korean
stock price index rose to a fresh record high of 2,216 points on April 25. On the same day, the
KOSPI posted a record high of 1,242 trillion won in terms of market capitalization.
Despite concerns over global inflation, a possible debt restructuring in the southern
European countries and Standard & Poor’s decision to revise its outlook on the US AAA
credit rating to “negative” from “stable”, the Korean stock market gained in April led by
domestic auto and chemical sectors, overseas companies including tech heavyweight Intel
Corp, and continuing inflows of liquidity.
With abundant liquidity and high earnings expectations, foreign investors maintained the
net-buying position on Korean shares to purchase 3.2 trillion won in April.
Along with most Asian currencies making gains, the won/100 yen exchange rate was down 11.5
won month-on-month as the won appreciated significantly, backed by solid fundamentals.
(End-period)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Dec Dec Dec Dec Mar Apr Change1
Won/Dollar 936.1 1,259.5 1,164.5 1,134.8 1,096.7 1,071.5 5.9
Won/100 Yen 828.6 1,396.8 1,264.5 1,393.6 1,325.6 1,314.1 6.1
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
26 May 2011
9-1 Stock prices
Economic Bulletin 27
9.3 Bond market
Treasury bond yields inched up in April due to diminishing demand for safe assets on
improving earnings news.
Despite expectations over Bank of Korea’s key interest rate hike boosted by high inflation
and strong earnings reports, the bond yields, mainly those of short-term bonds, increased
only slightly due to the global easy monetary policy and ample overhanging demand.
(End-period)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Feb Mar Apr Change1
Call rate (1 day) 4.60 5.02 3.02 2.01 2.51 2.76 2.99 3.02 +3
CD (91 days) 4.86 5.82 3.93 2.88 2.80 3.17 3.39 3.42 +3
Treasury bonds (3 yrs) 4.92 5.74 3.41 4.44 3.38 3.84 3.73 3.77 +4
Corporate bonds (3 yrs) 5.29 6.77 7.72 5.56 4.27 4.63 4.51 4.56 +5
Treasury bonds (5 yrs) 5.00 5.78 3.77 4.98 4.08 4.28 4.11 4.10 -1
1. Basis point, changes in April 2011 from the previous month
Despite banks’ expanded lending, the month-on-month M2 growth slowed down due to
smaller government expenditure, beleaguered asset management companies (AMCs) and
savings banks, and outflows of foreign portfolio investments.
(Percentage change from same period in previous year, average)
2008 2009 20104 20114
Annual Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb Feb1
M1 2
-1.8 16.3 10.8 17.6 18.9 17.8 11.8 14.5 10.7 10.8 11.2 12.6 11.5 432
M2 14.3 10.3 11.5 10.1 9.9 9.8 8.7 9.4 9.5 8.6 7.4 6.5 5.0 1,674
Lf 3 11.9 7.9 8.8 7.3 7.8 7.8 8.2 8.5 9.1 8.2 7.1 6.6 5.2 2,148
1. Balance at end February 2011, trillion won
2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs
3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3)
4. Preliminary
In March, bank deposits plunged while asset management company (AMC) deposits shifted
to an increase.
Despite an increase in time deposits, bank deposits greatly decelerated due to a decrease in
money market deposit accounts (MMDA) and the transfer of debts between banks affected
by KB Financial’s spinoff of its credit card unit.
Asset management company (AMC) deposits turned to an increase as growth in equity funds
continued and money market fund (MMF) shifted to a rise, helped by capital inflows from banks.
(Monthly change, end-period, trillion won)
2009 2010 2011
Annual Mar Annual Mar Jan Feb Mar Mar1
Bank deposits 54.8 -4.4 36.9 16.2 2.1 14.3 -11.4 1,049
AMC deposits -27.6 -3.0 -16.7 6.1 -5.2 -8.5 0.6 1,302
1. Balance at end March, trillion won
28 May 2011
9-4 Interest rates
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin 29
10. Balance of payments
Korea’s current account surplus (preliminary) in March slightly expanded from the previous
month’s US$1.13 billion to US$1.43 billion.
Despite rising international commodity prices, the goods account surplus, helped by solid exports,
accelerated the growth to post US$2.86 billion from the previous month’s US$1.53 billion.
The service account deficit slightly narrowed to US$330 million from the previous month’s
deficit of US$570 million on the back of increased revenue from transportation and
construction services.
The primary income account shifted to a deficit of US$860 million from the previous month’s
surplus of US$540 million due to dividend payments by Korean companies whose fiscal year
ends in December. Meanwhile, the secondary income account deficit narrowed to US$240
million from US$380 million a month earlier.
(US$ billion)
2009 2010 2011
Annual Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb Mar1
Current account 32.79 28.21 0.26 8.86 9.93 9.16 0.15 1.13 1.43
- Goods balance 37.87 41.90 4.79 12.24 12.54 12.34 1.56 1.53 2.86
- Service balance -6.64 -11.23 -4.20 -1.87 -2.96 -2.20 -1.64 -0.57 -0.33
- Income balance 2.28 0.77 0.55 -1.01 1.30 -0.07 0.70 0.54 -0.86
- Current transfers -0.71 -3.23 -0.87 -0.50 -0.95 -0.91 -0.47 -0.38 -0.24
Source: The Bank of Korea
1. Preliminary
The capital and financial account (preliminary) in March turned to the inflow of US$500
million from the previous month’s outflow of US$2 billion.
The direct investment account slightly decelerated the outflow to US$1.34 billion from the
previous month’s outflow of US$1.64 billion due to decreased overseas direct investments
by locals.
The portfolio investment account shifted to an inflow of US$720 million from the previous
month’s outflow of US$3 billion as foreign investors decelerated their net-selling of Korean
shares and increased investments in bonds.
The financial derivatives account turned to an inflow of US$520 million from the previous
month’s outflow of US$360 million.
The other investment account shifted to an outflow of US$670 million from the previous
month’s inflow of US$5.13 billion as domestic banks’ overseas lending increased.
Despite widened primary income account deficit due to dividend payments by Korean
companies whose fiscal year end in December, the current account surplus in April is
expected to expand from the previous month driven by a rising goods account surplus.
30 May 2011
10-1 Current account balance
Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
Economic Bulletin 31
11. Prices and international commodity prices
11.1 Prices
Consumer prices in April rose 4.2 percent year-on-year and 0.0 percent month-on-month.
Prices of agricultural, livestock & fishery products stabilized as vegetable prices went down,
but high oil product prices and a price hike in personal services led to an increase of
consumer prices.
Core consumer prices, which exclude oil and agricultural products, rose 3.2 percent year-on-
year and 0.2 percent month-on-month in April. The year-on-year increase rate was lower
than the previous month’s because price hikes in personal service charges had slowed
down. Consumer prices for basic necessities, a barometer of perceived consumer prices,
were up 4.1 percent compared to the same month of the previous year.
Agricultural, livestock & fishery product prices stabilized (down 1.8%, m-o-m), as vegetable
prices posted a significant drop from the previous month.
Prices of oil products and processed food rose slightly (up 0.2%, m-o-m), due to price
increases in international commodities such as oil.
Public utility charges remained unchanged from the previous month as a result of the
continued price freeze. Personal service charges increased 0.3 percent month-on-month, led
by the cost of dining out, due to increasing cost burdens and inflation expectations.
32 May 2011
11-1 Prices
Source: Statistics Korea (consumer prices, core inflation) & The Bank of Korea (producer prices)
Economic Bulletin 33
11.2. International oil and commodity prices
International oil and domestic oil product prices rose in April.
International oil prices (Dubai crude) spiked due to continued political turmoil in Libya and
other parts of the Middle East.
(US$/barrel, period average)
2008 2009 2010 2011
Annual Annual Annual Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Dubai crude 94.3 61.9 78.1 80.3 83.6 88.9 92.5 100.2 108.5 115.8
Brent crude 97.5 61.7 79.7 83.2 85.8 91.8 96.8 103.9 114.6 123.3
WTI crude 99.9 61.9 79.5 81.9 84.4 89.2 89.5 89.7 103.0 110.0
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Stable exchange rates and oil refiners’ price cuts resulted in domestic oil product prices
rising only slightly despite a significant increase in international oil prices.
Price increases in international commodities such as non-ferrous metals and grains slowed
down in general, although individual items showed different price movements depending on
their supply conditions.
Non-ferrous metals experienced price decrease, led by copper and nickel, due to large
inventories and the possibility of policy tightening in major countries such as China.
Rise in stocks as of April 22 (change from the end of the previous month, tons)
Zinc (79,000), lead (210,000), copper (17,000)
International grains exhibited different price trends depending on supply conditions. Corn
rallied due to delays in planting new crops, while raw sugar declined.
34 May 2011
11-4 International oil prices
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Economic Bulletin 35
12. Real estate market
12.1 Housing market
The upward trend of nationwide apartment sales prices decelerated in April, with prices
rising 1.2 percent month-on-month.
Apartment sales prices in the Seoul metropolitan area rose 0.1 percent month-on-month,
with the increase rate slightly lower than that of the previous month.
Apartment sales prices in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area showed a persistent
upward trend, led by South Gyeongsang Province (up 3.9%, m-o-m), Gwangju (up 3.3%, m-
o-m) and Busan (up 3.2%, m-o-m). Apartment prices in 5 metropolitan cities and other cities
climbed 2.4 percent and 2.0 percent each, surpassing the national average.
Nationwide apartment rental prices in April were up 1.6 percent from the previous month.
The increase rate was significantly lower than the previous month’s 2.3 percent. Price
increases decelerated in Seoul (up 0.7%, m-o-m), the Seoul metropolitan area (up 1.2%, m-
o-m) and Gyeonggi Province (up 1.7%, m-o-m).
Apartment sales transactions in March increased 26.3 percent from the previous month’s
77,471 to 97,842. The transactions were up 23.0 percent from 79,549 a year earlier.
36 May 2011
12-1 Real estate prices
Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
Economic Bulletin 37
12.2 Land market
Nationwide land prices in March rose for the fifth consecutive month (up 0.11%), but were
still 1.92 percent lower than the pre-crisis peak reached in October 2008. Land prices were
0.21 percent lower compared with the previous year, but the pace of increase has
accelerated evenly nationwide.
Land prices in the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.12%), Seoul (up 0.15%), Gyeonggi Province
(up 0.10%) and Incheon (up 0.06%) posted a slight increase from the previous month.
Land prices in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area rose 0.08 percent month-on-
month in February, continuing the upward trend from October 2010.
Nationwide land transactions in March recorded 244,000 land lots, up 38.7 percent from the
previous month and up 14.6 percent from 213,000 a year earlier. Land transactions were
8.2% less than the five-year March average of 226,000 land lots.
Month-on-month land transactions increased greatly in areas such as Seoul (up 34.3%, m-o-
m), Incheon (up 42.9%, m-o-m), Gyeonggi Province (up 37.6%, m-o-m), and Gwangju (up
51.7%, m-o-m).
38 May 2011
12-4 Land and consumer prices since 1970s
Source: Korea Land Corporation (land prices) & Statistics Korea (consumer prices)
Economic Bulletin 39
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
Despite improvements in related indices, the cyclical indicator of the coincident composite
index fell 0.1 point in March, due to the three-month moving average effect.
Among the components of the coincident composite index, six factors, including the mining
& manufacturing production index and domestic shipment index, increased from the
previous month, while the value of construction completion and service activity index
dropped.
The year-on-year leading composite index in March decreased for the second consecutive month
(down 0.3%p, m-o-m), as the consumer expectations index and terms of trade declined.
Among the components of the leading composite index, three factors, including the indicator
of inventory cycle and value of construction orders received, rose month-on-month, while six
factors, such as the consumer expectations index and value of machinery orders received fell.
2010 2011
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan1 Feb1 Mar1
Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %) -0.3 -0.3 0.2 0.8 1.5 0.1 0.4
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index 100.4 99.6 99.5 99.8 100.8 100.6 100.5
(m-o-m, p) -0.7 -0.8 -0.1 0.3 1.0 -0.2 -0.1
Leading composite index (m-o-m, %) 0.0 -0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 -0.2 -0.3
12 month smoothed change
in leading composite index (%) 4.5 3.3 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.4 1.6
40 May 2011
13-1 Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index
Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin 41
Policy Issues
The 2012 guidelines on budgeting
The 2012 guidelines pursue fiscal consolidation and effective budget spending. Balanced
fiscal situation on which the future of Korea is firmly based will be the focus of the 2012
budgeting, while the government continues to provide essential support.
Overview
It is time for Korea to manage total fiscal balance as the country is on its way to solid fiscal
recovery. The rise in the total fiscal expenditure will be controlled below that in the total
revenue so that the 2012 fiscal balance can be improved from 2011’s deficit of 2.0 percent of
GDP. To help the country achieve fiscal health and prepare for the better future at the same
time, the government will plan budget spending on the principle of ‘selection and
concentration’, and provide strong support to the most essential projects.
Stricter rules will be applied to budget spending, while fiscal projects will be field-examined
before allocating budgets.
42 May 2011
Guidelines on budget allocation
The 2012 budgets will be aimed at 1) providing better environment for employment,
education, and living, 2) fostering green growth industries and developing next generation
high technologies, and 3) strengthening security in terms of homeland protection and social
safety nets, and reinforcing efforts in crime and natural disaster prevention.
2) Fostering green growth industries and developing next generation high technologies
The 2012 budgets will have to more effectively allocate R&D budgets as well as expand
them, with a focus on enhancing research capabilities in basic sciences. In 2012 green
growth related budgets including development of energy saving technologies will be
increased, with the four river restoration projects successfully carried out. Based on the
Economic Bulletin 43
budgeting guidelines which highly prioritize developing future growth engines, the
government will keep nurturing IT convergence and other next generation high value added
technologies, and seek developing markets in emerging countries. Green house gas
emissions reduction obligations will be applied more broadly. Details of the guideline are as
follows:
- R&D investment to be under close evaluation with the focus of the investment moving
toward basic sciences, original technologies, new growth engines, and green growth
related technologies
- Restructuring of similar R&D projects
- National Science & Technology Council to lead the directions of national R&D projects
- Maintenance of flood prevention facilities constructed during the four river restoration
project
- High speed rails, one of the green transportation methods, to be constructed as scheduled,
with public transportation conveniently linked to them to boost demand for railways
- Upgrading water quality by improving water supply and drainage infrastructures and waste
disposal facilities
- Helping small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) enter overseas markets, in particular
emerging markets
- High-tech convergence industries, biotechnologies and health-related industries to receive
strong support as future growth engines
- New and innovative enterprises to receive financial support on the principle of selection
and concentration
- Support for developing energy saving technologies and expanding overseas resources
development, aimed at securing energy supply and developing substitutes for conventional
energy resources
- Improving distribution systems of fresh food products to stabilize their prices, and raising
competitiveness of agricultural and fishery industries ahead of FTAs
- Applying stricter quarantine systems for livestock
- Bolstering high value added agricultural and fishery industries, such as the seed industry,
bio-industry and globalized food industry
44 May 2011
- ODA to reach 0.15 percent of GNI
- Increased support for North Korean defectors
- Reimbursement of acquisition tax cuts to local governments, aimed at helping increase
fiscal stability of the local governments
The focus of the 2012 budget management is on strictly regulating spending, and pursuing
fiscal consolidation. To this end, the government will limit budget spending to the most
essential ones, secure tax revenue, carefully manage long-term fiscal risks, and field-
examine fiscal projects and reflect the result in budgeting. Details of the guidelines are as
follows:
- Restructuring of local government projects to ease the financial burden of both the local
governments and the central government
- Legislation incurring budget spending to be carefully examined by government’s legislation
committee
- Welfare, R&D, and ODA projects to be carefully examined and restructured
- Withdrawal of tax exemptions and cuts, and increased taxation on tax evaders
- Mid- and long-term risk management of public debts, in particular debts of the National
Pension Service and the National Health Insurance Corporation
- Field examination of fiscal projects, the result of which to be reflected in allocating budgets
- Careful examination of ongoing fiscal projects by outsourced experts
Economic Bulletin 45
Economic
News Briefing
Korea’s real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 1.4 percent in the first quarter of
2011 compared to the previous quarter. From a year earlier, the GDP grew 4.2 percent.
On the production side, manufacturing sector expanded 3.2 percent led by an increase in
electrical & electronic equipment, steel and automobile manufacturing. Service sectors grew
1.3 percent from the previous quarter’s 1.1 percent. Meanwhile, agriculture, forestry &
fishery contracted by 5.1 percent due to the sluggishness in the livestock industry affected
by the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease.
On the expenditure side, exports rose by 3.3 percent helped by robust semiconductors,
electronic components and automobiles exports. Private consumption grew by 0.5 percent as
increased expenditures on durable goods offset sluggish spending on nondurable goods. Facility
investment and construction investment decreased by 0.8 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively.
Real gross domestic income (GDI) fell by 0.6 percent as terms of trade declined affected by
high oil prices.
46 May 2011
<GDP by production and expenditure*> (Percentage change from previous period)
2009 20101 20111
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
GDP 0.1 (-4.2) 2.5 (-2.1) 3.4 (1.0) 0.2 (6.3) 2.1 (8.5) 1.4 (7.5) 0.6 (4.4) 0.5 (4.7)
2 1.4 (4.2)
Agriculture, forestry and fishery 1.1 0.0 3.7 0.0 -3.1 -2.5 -2.5 0.2 -5.1 (-9.2)
Manufacturing -3.4 8.4 9.7 -1.1 4.2 4.0 2.3 0.1 3.2 (9.9)
Construction 3.5 1.3 -1.4 0.5 1.4 -0.1 -1.2 -3.2 -6.1 (-9.9)
Services 3
0.3 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.6 0.1 0.1 1.3 1.3 (2.8)
Private consumption -0.3 3.7 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.7 1.4 0.3 0.5 (3.0)
Government consumption 2.6 0.8 0.1 -1.1 3.6 0.3 -0.1 -0.4 1.8 (1.6)
Facility investment -10.2 6.7 9.1 7.8 2.8 7.9 5.6 -1.0 -0.8 (12.0)
Construction investment 3.9 2.4 -1.2 0.7 2.0 -4.2 -0.8 -1.0 -6.7 (-11.9)
Goods exports4 -2.1 13.3 5.4 -1.7 3.0 7.4 2.5 3.0 4.6 (18.6)
Goods imports 4
-6.1 8.1 7.8 -0.4 4.8 7.1 3.6 -0.7 2.7 (13.3)
Gross Domestic Income 0.8 4.8 1.9 1.2 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.3 -0.6 (1.6)
*At 2005 chained prices in seasonally adjusted terms
1. Preliminary
2. Percentage changes from the same period in the previous year in original terms
3. Wholesale & retail sales, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communication services, financial & insurance services, real estate & renting, business
services, public administration, defense & social security, educational services, healthcare & social welfare services, entertainment, cultural & sports services
and other services are included.
4. FOB basis
The National Assembly approved the Korea-EU free trade agreement (FTA) on May 4, 2011 by
a vote of 163 to 1 with 5 abstentions. The trade pact between Korea and the EU was initialed
on October 15, 2009 and signed on October 6, 2010. The European Parliament supported the
trade agreement by a wide margin on February 17, 2011. With the approval of both parties,
the provisional application of the FTA is expected on July 1, 2011.
The Korea-EU FTA will bring significant positive effects on the Korean economy considering
that the EU is the world’s biggest trading bloc and Korea’s second largest trading partner. In
addition, the trade pact is expected to contribute to solidifying the strategic partnership,
which was established during the Korea-EU Summit last October. The Ministry of Foreign
Affairs and Trade welcomed the ratification of the FTA, saying it will help Korea better
prepare against global economic challenges such as Japan’s devastating earthquake, political
upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa, and the Korean currency’s appreciation.
Economic Bulletin 47
Korea announces follow-up plan for improving service sector
The Korean government released an assessment of previous plans to nurture the service
sector and announced follow-up measures for the industry, at a meeting held by the Ministry
of Strategy and Finance (MOSF) on April 27. Since 2001, the government has introduced
various measures to enhance the competitiveness of the service sector, but ten years of
efforts have not led to significant advancements to the sector. Although some improvements
have been made in terms of increased employment opportunities and eased regulations,
other areas, such as the structure of employment, productivity and international
competitiveness, leave much to be desired.
According to the assessments, the employment rate in the service industry has been steadily
increasing but there needs to be efforts to improve the quality of employment. In order to
enhance productivity, knowledge based service industries should increase investment in
research and development (R&D), and to improve the service account, the tourism,
education and consulting services should be further promoted. The government pointed out
five service industries that need improvement - medical and social services, education,
tourism and leisure, broadcasting and communication contents, and business services - and
unveiled detailed action plans.
On May 1, the Korean government unveiled a comprehensive program to boost the sluggish
construction industry. Establishing a bad bank to buy non-performing property loans,
reducing transfer taxes for homeowners in Seoul and the Seoul metropolitan area, extending
tax incentives for real estate investment trusts (REITs) and funds, expanding the supply of
houses by easing regulations on land use and promoting project developments without
minimum revenue guarantee (MRG) are part of the plan.
In particular, by creating a Project Financing Stabilization Bank (“the PFS Bank”), all project
financing (PF) loans can be pooled together and purchased by one bank so that the PFS
Bank can take actions to restructure and stabilize the industry on an individual project basis.
The first PFS bank, which will be launched during June 2011, will acquire 1 trillion won worth
of soured PF loans. The second and the third PFS Banks will follow suit afterwards.
48 May 2011
Korea to help low-income households’ access to financial services
The Financial Services Commission (FSC) announced on April 18 measures to lower financial
costs of low-income households and strengthen the financial safety net. According to the
plan, Korea will provide 3.2 trillion won in loans to low-income families this year through its
three lending programs: Smile Microcredit, Sunshine Loans; and New Hope Loans.
Regarding individual credit rating, credit inquiry records would be no longer taken into the
assessment of individuals’ credit rating. In addition, overdue payments of less than 100,000
won would not affect borrower’s credit rating. Overdue payments of less than 90 days would
be reflected only for three years, in the assessment of borrower’s credit ratings if debts are
fully repaid.
As a part of the plan, measures such as putting a cap on loan brokerage fees, strengthening
the crackdown on illicit brokerage practices, extending the operation of pre-workout program,
broadening the scope of beneficiaries of transfer loans, and expanding financial support for
those in the credit recovery program, establishing a database of financial services targeting
low-income earners and creating more education programs for them are included.
The Ministry of Strategy and Finance (MOSF) held a meeting on May 3 to discuss the
government’s price stabilization efforts. Responding to inflationary pressures in regional
public utility and personal service charges, the government has set up an action plan to
provide 50 billion won in financial aid to stabilize public utility prices in regional areas. The
system will be introduced in June to compensate provincial governments for losses from
price hikes in intra-city buses, subways and water supply. Meanwhile, the government
recognized that provision of agricultural, livestock and fishery products have improved but
supply problems still exist in certain items such as rice and pork. Therefore the government
will attempt to stabilize the market by releasing its holdings of rice and increasing tariff
quotas for imported pork.
Economic Bulletin 49
Statistical
Appendices
Tables & Figures
1. National accounts
2. Production, shipment and inventory
3. Production capacity and operation ratio
4. Consumer goods sales index
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment,
and estimated facility investment index
7. Value of construction completion and domestic construction orders received
8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI
9. Balance of payments (I)
10. Balance of payments (II)
11. Prices
12. Employment
13. Financial indicators
14. Monetary indicators
15. Exchange rates
Economic Bulletin 51
1. National accounts
(year-on-year change, %, chained 2005 year prices)
P: Preliminary
Source: The Bank of Korea
52 May 2011
Growth rate by economic activity
Economic Bulletin 53
2. Production, shipment and inventory See graphs 6-1, 6-3, 7-1, 7-2 & 7-3
(constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Service
Production Shipment Inventory
Period Y-o-Y Y-o-Y Y-o-Y production Y-o-Y
index index index
change (%) change (%) change (%) index change (%)
54 May 2011
3. Production capacity and operation ratio See graph 6-2
Economic Bulletin 55
4. Consumer goods sales index See graphs 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 & 2-5
(constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Consumer
goods
Period Durable Semi-durable Non-durable
sales
Y-o-Y goods Y-o-Y goods Y-o-Y goods Y-o-Y
index
change (%) change (%) change (%) change (%)
56 May 2011
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index
See graph 2-6
Domestic consumer
goods shipment index Consumer
Period (2005=100) Durable Non-durable sentiment index
Y-o-Y goods Y-o-Y goods Y-o-Y
change (%) change (%) change (%)
Economic Bulletin 57
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment
and estimated facility investment index See graph 3-2
Domestic machinery orders received Domestic
Estimated
excluding ship (billion won, constant prices) machinery
facility investment
Period shipment
index
excluding ship
Total Public Private (2005=100)
Manufacturing (2005=100)
58 May 2011
7. Value of construction completion and domestic construction
orders received See graphs 4-2 & 4-3
(current prices, billion won)
Economic Bulletin 59
8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI
See graphs 13-1, 13-2 & 13-3
Cycle of
Leading Coincident
coincident
Period index Y-o-Y index BSI (results) BSI (prospects)
index
(2005=100) change (%) (2005=100)
(2005=100)
60 May 2011
9. Balance of payments (I) See graphs 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 10-1 & 10-2
(million US$)
P: Preliminary
Source: The Bank of Korea & Korea Customs Service
Economic Bulletin 61
10. Balance of payments (II) See graph 10-3
(million US$)
62 May 2011
11. Prices See graphs 11-1, 11-2 & 11-3
(2005 = 100)
Producer prices
Consumer prices Export & import prices
(2005=100)
Period
All Items Commodity Service Core All items Commodity Export Import
Economic Bulletin 63
12. Employment See graphs 8-1, 8-2 & 8-3
64 May 2011
13. Financial indicators See graphs 9-1 & 9-4
(period average)
Economic Bulletin 65
14. Monetary indicators See graph 9-5
(period average) (billion won)
66 May 2011
15. Exchange rates See graphs 9-2 & 9-3
Economic Bulletin 67
Editor-in-Chief
Bang, Moon-Kyu (MOSF)
Editorial Board
Kim, Young-Min (MOSF)
Shim, Jae-Hak (KDI)
Lee, In-Sook (KDI)
Coordinators
Kim, Dae-Hyun (MOSF)
Cho, Hyun-Joo (KDI)
Editors
Cho, Eun-Hyung (MOSF)
Eli Horn (MOSF)
Lee, Ji-Youn (KDI)
Ministry of Labor
http://english.molab.go.kr/english
Statistics Korea
http://kostat.go.kr