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Nitish Thesis

Nitish Thesis

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Published by Nitish Prasad Bandi

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Published by: Nitish Prasad Bandi on May 23, 2011
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CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
Estimation of design flood is one of the important components of planning, design and operationof water resources projects. Information on flood magnitudes and their frequencies is needed for design of hydraulic structures such as dams, spillways, road and railway bridges, culverts, urbandrainage systems, flood plain zoning, economic evaluation of flood protection projects etc.Methods of flood estimation may be broadly divided into five categories viz. (i) flood formulaeand envelope curves, (ii) rational formula, (iii) flood frequency analysis, (iv) unit hydrographtechniques and (v) watershed models. The generally adopted methods of flood estimation are based on two types of approaches viz. (i) deterministic approach, and (ii) statistical approach.The deterministic approach is based on the hydro meteorological technique, which requiresdesign storm and the unit hydrograph for a catchment. The statistical approach is based on theflood frequency analysis using the observed annual maximum peak flood data. The choice of method depends on the design criteria applicable to the structure and availability of data.Hydrologic processes may be thought of as stochastic processes. Annual maximum daily rainfallserves as example of stochastic hydrologic process. Hydrologic processes are continuous process. Determination of the probability distribution of yearly maximum and minimumdischarges is of fundamental importance in many water resource design problems.
 
In floodfrequency analysis, the objective is to establish a flow magnitude (Q) corresponding to anyrequired return period (T) of occurrence. That is, a past record is fit with a statistical distributionfunction, which is then used to make inferences about future events. Identification of the truestatistical distributions for the various hydrologic and meteorological data sets (annual flood peaks and annual maximum daily rainfall) continues to be a major question facing engineers andscientists. An even greater problem facing hydrologists and meteorologists is the identification of the distribution form for regional data.1
 
 In hydrology, sufficient information is seldom available at a site to adequately determine thefrequency of rare events using frequency analysis. This is certainly the case for the extremelyrare events, which are of interest in dam safety risk assessment. One substitutes space for time byusing hydrologic information at different locations in a region to compensate for short records ata single site.Three approaches (Cudworth, 1989) have been considered for regional flood frequency analysis:(1) average parameter approach; (2) index flood approach; and (3) specific frequency approach.With the average parameter approach, some parameters are assigned average values based uponregional analyses, such as the log-space skew or standard deviation. Other parameters areestimated using at-site data, or regression on physiographic basin characteristics, perhaps the realor log-space means. The index flood method is a special case of the average parameter approach.It is a simple regionalization technique. The specific frequency approach employs regressionrelationships between drainage basin characteristics and particular quantiles of a flood frequencydistribution. Regional analysis can be used to derive equations to predict the values of varioushydrologic statistics (including means, standard deviations, quantiles, and normalized regionalflood quantiles) as a function of physiographic characteristics and other parameters.Flood frequency analysis, as commonly practiced, focuses on the estimation of return periodsassociated with annual maximum flood peaks of various magnitudes. Based on an assumeddistribution, it is possible to make probability statements of future flows of various magnitudes.The expected value of the random variable is also estimated for a given probability. For thedesign purpose, T year design flood (T = 100, 50, 25, 10 or any desired year) is often required tocalculate from the best-fit distribution. So probability distribution plays a vital role in designingstructures and proper management of resources.2
 
Popularly used continuous distributions are: Normal, Lognormal, Gamma, Pearson, LogPearson,Generalized Extreme Value, Weibull, and Gumbel distribution. Commonly used parameter estimation procedures are the method of moments (MOM) and the method of maximumlikelihood (MLE). Probability weighted moments (PWM) and method of maximum entropy(MME) are of recent interest. But of late, a new method called L-moments was introduces whichhas gained immense popularity.L-moments of a random variable were first introduced by Hosking (1990). They are analogous toconventional moments, but are estimated as linear combinations of order statistics. Hosking(1990) defined L-moments as linear combinations of the Probability Weighted Moments. In awide range of hydrologic applications, L-moments provide simple and reasonably efficientestimators of characteristics of hydrologic data and of a distribution's parameters (Stedinger etal., 1992).Frequency based design flood estimation primarily needs proper selection of the distribution to be used to the previous years data to calculate T year return period flood. Selection of thedistribution can be done by goodness of fit test: Chi- Square Test or Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test.Apart from the aforementioned tests the recently introduced L-moment ratio diagram based onthe approximations given by Hosking (1990) and the goodness of fit or behavior analysismeasure for a frequency distribution given by statistic
disti
Zdescribed below, are also used toidentify the suitable frequency distribution. They have been proved to be very efficient inselection of the distribution to be used.In India, a number of studies have been carried out for estimation of design floods for variousstructures by different organizations. Prominent among these include the studies carried out jointly by Central Water Commission (CWC), Research Designs and Standards Organization(RDSO) and India Meteorological Department (IMD) using the method based on synthetic unithydrograph and design rainfall considering physiographic and meteorological characteristics for estimation of design floods3 and regional flood frequency studies carried out by RDSO using the3

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