Professional Documents
Culture Documents
BRANDS
Putting society at the
heart of your business
MICHAEL
WILLMOTT
1111 has not only helped me to understand complex system models, but
2 also provided the simulations that are produced in Chapter 10.
3 Future Foundation associate Jim Murphy has shown me the
4 need for, and benefits of, always questioning the status quo and
5 received wisdom. A classic example is Jim’s idea of ‘peace and
6 plenty’ – which refutes the proposition of social and economic
7 decline – that I discuss in some depth and give my own personal
8 views on in Chapter 5.
9 Paul Ormerod introduced me to the whole area of complex
10 system models and ‘butterfly economics’ and provided many of
1 the research references in Chapter 10. Deborah Parkes from
2 Richmond Events initiated the project on corporate citizenship
3 mentioned above and provided objective comment and criticism
4 throughout. She also suggested involving Consumers’ Association
5 as research partners and joint funders. In the two years that the
6 programme ran, Paul Flatters and Leslie Sopp, who were at the
7 time both at Consumers’ Association, were fellow researchers and
8 analysts whose contribution was extremely helpful.
9 The most instrumental person in the evolution of this book
20111 was my commissioning editor at Wiley’s, Claire Plimmer. It was
1 Claire who approached me with the idea that a book on this
2 subject might be worth doing, and who has encouraged me
3 throughout. Without her, this book would not have happened –
4 I hope her judgement, and faith in me, were right.
5 Equally, without Bob Tyrrell’s and David Darton’s faith in me,
6 and their invitation to join them at the Henley Centre, it is unlikely
7 that I would ever have got into the forecasting and trend analysis
8 business. But their influence on me over the years has been much
9 more than that. They showed me how to look at and analyse
30 consumer and other trends, how to assess their impact on busi-
1 ness, and, most importantly, how to think creatively about the
2 future.
3111 I always received good advice from my father, Peter. He taught
me the importance of objectivity in analysis. ‘Where are the facts?’
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS xi
1111 he would always say when I had put some new analytic conclu-
2 sion before him. As he did for many others, he helped me to
3 improve my writing tremendously and I am sure would have made
4 many useful comments on this book had he been alive. My mother,
5 Phyllis, has been of similar help over the years, not least in
6 commenting on my prose. An author and social historian, she has
7 been hugely influential on my views on, and analysis of, the world.
8 But there are two people to whom I am most indebted for
9 the opportunity to write this book. First is Melanie Howard, my
10 co-founder of the Future Foundation. I have worked with Melanie
1 for over ten years and many of the ideas that are put forward in
2 this book have developed as a result of our joint work and her
3 creative input into that. She unselfishly encouraged me to take on
4 the task of writing the book and supported me throughout the
5 process.
6 Last, but not least, is my wife, Marianne. She has endured my
7 late nights, uneven moods and much else, both over the years and
8 during the course of this project in particular. And most of the
91111 time she has done it with good humour, while always being a
20111 pragmatic, realistic and intelligent critic.
1 All these people have helped me greatly and, without them,
2 I could not have completed this book. I hope it does not dis-
3 appoint them.
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INTRODUCTION
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9 bout ten years ago, I became interested in the broader
20111 role and responsibilities of business in society – what was then,
1 and still is, referred to as corporate social responsibility. Over the
2 years, my views developed and I began to recognize that it was
3 more than just about companies ‘doing good’ – it also impinged
4 on key strategic and marketing issues like reputation and branding.
5 It was with this in mind that I first coined the phrase ‘citizen
6 brands’ in a 1997 report on corporate responsibility for British
7 Telecom.1 Since then, whenever I have used it in conference
8 presentations or at client meetings, the term has proved to be a
9 popular one – for many people, it seems it epitomizes a new and
30 different approach to business.
1 Yet, during the course of writing this book, my ideas about
2 what exactly citizen brands stands for and why it is import-
3111 ant have been shifting subtly. Whereas originally I used the term
to refer to the responsibilities that companies had in the wider
2 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 B E Y O N D B E N E FA C T I O N
2
3 Second, it is important that corporate citizenship is recognized as
4 being more than benefaction. Again, there is nothing wrong with
5 benefaction. From the beginning of time people have acted char-
6 itably. Many give time or money to individual people, or to causes,
7 on the basis of their moral or ethical beliefs. There is no reason
8 why companies should not do the same (although companies as
9 collections of individuals and work units may have more compli-
10 cated decisions to make about what causes to support). It is likely
1 that corporate benefaction will increase in the future as people
2 become more aware and more concerned about a range of issues.
3 But it seems to me wrong to equate benefaction with corporate
4 citizenship, which is deeper, more involved, more reciprocal.
5 Corporate citizenship is not so much about a company ‘giving’
6 to charity (benefaction), although, of course, it might do that; it
7 is much more about a company showing that it understands soci-
8 etal issues and cares about them.
9 Thus the distinction I am making between benefaction and
20111 citizenship is that the first is about responsibility, the second about
1 a relationship; the first about ethics, the second about (social) values
2 and interdependence.
3
4
5 R E A P P R A I S I N G VA L U E S
6
7 The third imperative is a reappraisal of the link between corpor-
8 ate citizenship, values and branding. In Built to Last4 James Collins
9 and Jerry Porras not only produced one of the best business books
30 of the last decade but also highlighted the importance of core
1 values to corporate success. How does the concept of citizen brands
2 differ? It does so in two ways. First, I specifically link core values
3111 to corporate citizenship. For example, Collins and Porras argue
that Phillip Morris is successful because it has a deeply embedded
INTRODUCTION 5
1111 core ideology, even though the authors themselves do not (as they
2 understatedly put it) see ‘Philip Morris as working altruistically
3 for the good of humankind’! They add:
4
We concluded that the critical issue is not whether a company has
5
the ‘right’ core ideology or a ‘likeable’ core ideology but rather
6 whether it has a core ideology.
7
8 While this may have been true in the past, I argue that it is
9 becoming increasingly unsustainable as the consuming public
10 becomes more aware of social and ethical issues and more
1 demanding of companies (see Chapter 2). For example, research I
2 conducted in Britain5 shows that when asked what adjectives (from
3 a list of 30) best describe Marlboro, Philip Morris’s main brand,
4 the top six chosen by respondents were cynical, ruthless, heartless,
5 secretive, deceitful and greedy. Philip Morris may have a strong
6 ideology (the right to personal freedom and choice) but such nega-
7 tive views suggest a position that may well be unsustainable in the
8 long term.
91111 My second point of difference over Built to Last is that, whereas
20111 Collins and Porras’s book concentrates on the internal impact of
1 core values, I look specifically at the external impact – how the
2 social values and behaviour of a company affect its branding
3 and the way it is perceived by those outside the organization,
4 particularly its customers. This is significant because branding is
5 becoming more important in the high-tech, interconnected
6 world of the future (the ‘network society’ as Manuel Castells has
7 labelled it).6
8
9
30 THE MEANING OF CITIZEN BRANDS
1
2 Thus, three critical issues facing business today – corporate citizen-
3 ship, core values and branding – come together in an integrated
4111 way to form the concept of citizen brands. Each is an important
6 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111
2
Corporate
3 Core values
citizenship
4
5 Citizen brands
6 Embody social values that
7 define the company’s
relationship with society,
8 customers, employees, investors etc.
9
10
1
2 Branding
3
4
5 Figure I.1 Citizenship, values and branding.
6 Source: Michael Willmott/Future Foundation.
7
8
9 topic in its own right worthy of serious consideration by manage-
20111 ment. Together, they define a company’s relationship with its
1 customers, workers, owners and society in general (see Figure I.1).
2 And in the emerging networked, post-industrial world, managing
3 this relationship is surely the most important challenge facing
4 companies.
5 My argument is predicated on two interrelated views. First,
6 that citizen brands will become more commercially successful in
7 the future. If this is not so, it will be extremely difficult to persuade
8 companies to embrace the concept. Second, that wider concerns
9 and ethical awareness are going to increase affecting people’s views
30 of companies as suppliers of goods and services, as employers and
1 as owners of their capital (through direct share ownership or
2 through indirect means like pension funds).
3111
INTRODUCTION 7
W
6
7
8
91111 hat do Hewlett Packard, Richard Branson’s Virgin
20111 and British retailer Marks and Spencer have in common? Not a
1 lot one would have thought. They operate in different industries,
2 on different scales, with different geographical coverage and with
3 different current levels of commercial health.
4 Hewlett Packard is an IT company that is currently ‘reinventing’
5 itself under new CEO Carly Fiorina. Its stock has underperformed
6 the market since 1999 and in November 2000 it had to call off the
7 prospective acquisition of PricewaterhouseCoopers’ consulting arm
8 following disappointing fourth quarter results. Richard Branson’s
9 Virgin Group operates in a range of sectors including airlines, trains,
30 music, mobile telephony and financial services. In December 1999
1 it sold a minority stake in its Virgin Atlantic airline to Singapore
2 Airways for £600 million – a figure ‘far more than most analysts
3 had thought it worth’.1 At the moment Virgin appears to be going
4111 from strength to strength.
12 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 Marks and Spencer, the best known name in British retailing,
2 is on the other hand having a torrid time. The last two years have
3 been riddled with profit warnings, disappointing results and a
4 collapse in share price.
5 So what do these three companies have in common? Well, in
6 their different ways they are examples of citizen brands. They are
7 not perfect examples, but then I am not sure that any company
8 yet is. But the values they encompass explain Virgin’s current
9 success, why HP will continue to prosper in the hi-tech sector in
10 the twenty-first century and why Marks and Spencer is likely to
1 once again be a leading player in the British high street (unless
2 it is acquired by another company that fails to embrace, and build
3 on, its core values).
4 Their stories are all different but they all have one thing in
5 common – a strong set of core values that relate to their roles in,
6 and relationships with, society. And the reason for being optimistic,
7 rather than pessimistic, about their future prospects is strong
8 evidence that those values and those relationships provide a sound
9 base from which to build success. For a whole range of studies
20111 has shown that, on the whole, being a good citizen does, indeed,
1 equate to commercial success.
2
3
4 THE EVIDENCE
5
6 Organizations like Business for Social Responsibility and The
7 Business Enterprise Trust in the United States or the Centre for
8 Tomorrow’s Company and Business in the Community in Britain
9 have summarized some of the studies in this area. Their conclu-
30 sions are clearcut.
1 For example, the Centre for Tomorrow’s Company – whose
2 own particular formulation of corporate responsibility initiatives it
3111 calls the ‘inclusive approach’ – has argued that:
THE CASE FOR CITIZEN BRANDS 13
1111 At the very least, the research supports the view that the inclusive
2 approach, while serving shareholders’ interests, particularly in the
3 long-term, does lead to business success as a result of improved
customer satisfaction, greater commitment on the part of employees,
4
a more effective supply chain, and an enhanced reputation in the
5 community at large.2
6
7 While, in the United States, Business for Social Responsibility has
8 noted that:
9 Over the past decade, a growing number of companies have recog-
10 nized the business benefits of CSR [corporate social responsibility]
1 policies and practices. Their experiences are bolstered by a growing
2 body of empirical studies which demonstrate that CSR has a posi-
3 tive impact on business economic performance, and is not harmful
4 to shareholder value.3
5 A Committee of Inquiry that reported to the British Govern-
6 ment, came to the same conclusion (as have others who looked
7 at the evidence):
8
91111 The evidence [stacks up] to the point where any reasonable person
must begin to ask what more might be required to demonstrate a
20111
binding cause and effect relationship between increased competi-
1 tiveness and environmentally and socially responsible behaviour.4
2
3 Although there is no reason to doubt the conclusions of these
4 bodies, it was necessary for the purposes of this book to consider
5 some of the specific studies themselves not least because the
6 umbrella title of citizen brands includes such a diverse range of issues.
7 But before discussing the specifics, there are some general observa-
8 tions to make as a result of my analysis of the research:
9
30 1. A number of these studies and research projects are, in fact, con-
1 sumer surveys, many of them attitudinal. These are notoriously
2 difficult to interpret particularly when they are of the form
3 ‘I would pay 10% more for an environmentally friendly product’
4111 or ‘other things being equal, I would choose a company that is
14 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 socially responsible’. This does not mean that they should be
2 discarded as such but rather that they should be treated in a
3 different way and separately from studies based on more
4 direct commercial measures such as share price performance or
5 profitability. For example, some researchers have looked at
6 the correlation between environmentally friendly practices and
7 profitability; others at the relationship between executive pay
8 and share price. It is for this reason that I consider the con-
9 sumer research in a separate chapter.
10 2. When you take out these consumer research analyses, there
1 are fewer direct attempts to assess the impact of corporate
2 citizenship on business performance than might be imagined.
3 However, as I show in this chapter, when the results of these
4 studies are considered together, they do provide a consistent,
5 and I believe persuasive, argument in support of the citizen
6 brands thesis.
7 3. Interestingly, and importantly, there are very few studies that
8 show the converse – that is, that being a citizen brand is bad
9 strategically and commercially. Given the opposition that exists
20111 in some quarters to the idea, I believe this, in itself, lends
1 support to the citizen brand argument. Where there is criti-
2 cism of some initiatives in this area they tend to be of the
3 values and motives involved (altruism versus self-interest) rather
4 than the effect (that citizenship is good for the company). An
5 example is a paper by Joel Schwartz of the Hudson Institute5
6 where he argues that corporate philanthropy is acceptable if
7 it is driven by self-interest but not if it is the result of altruism
8 (‘corporate philanthropy cannot really be justified unless its
9 motive is “impure” ’).
30 4. All the studies that have been conducted are, inevitably, back-
1 ward looking. Some of them, limited by the availability of
2 data, have been forced to look at relationships existing in the
3111 early 1990s or even the 1980s. Since part of my argument is
that the concept of citizen brands is becoming more important
THE CASE FOR CITIZEN BRANDS 15
1111 Customer
retention
2
100%
3
90%
4 80%
5 70%
6 60%
50%
7
40%
8 30%
9 20%
10 10%
0%
1 Low Medium High
2 Employee retention
3
4 Figure 1.1 Employee and customer retention. Branch banking in
Europe.
5
Source: Bain & Co.
6
7
8 customer retention also have the highest profitability it is clear
91111 how the connection is made.
20111 Eli Lilly’s research among its own staff indicated, as CEO
1 Randall L. Tobias put it, ‘very clearly and very convincingly that
2 employee and customer satisfaction are strongly and positively
3 linked’.27 Lilly is a company that takes its employees (and indeed
4 its relationship with all society) very seriously. So too does Hewlett
5 Packard which, according to a new book, has built up a ‘bank of
6 emotional resilience’ among its people.28 This is one reason why,
7 HP epitomizes a citizen brand more than most.
8 With the process of globalization, companies increasingly have
9 to be attentive to employment practices throughout their supply
30 chain particularly where these involve developing nations. This is
1 important because it can be much harder for companies to monitor
2 standards and because (as I discuss in subsequent chapters) it can
3 be the focus of considerable media attention (and consumer
4111 reproach). For example, British retailer Marks and Spencer, which
22 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 e-Inclusion programme. This aims to help the poor in the devel-
2 oping world benefit from new technology and e-services.
3
4
5 E N V I R O N M E N TA L I S S U E S
6
7 Closely related to community initiatives are environmental ones.
8 These too can either be local or global. This is an area where a
9 lot of work has been carried out with nearly all of it showing
10 the commercial benefits of environmental awareness.
1 For example, in May 1997 the Guardian reported that new
2 research had shown that companies taking environmental issues
3 seriously had better financial performances than that of their non-
4 green rivals. The study from Imperial College and Jupiter Asset
5 Management had ‘found that a large sample of greener companies
6 did as well as or better than competitors in the same business over
7 a four year period.’33 At about the same time, the Financial Times
8 ran a headline ‘Green is the colour of money’ on a report about
91111 the 1997 Queen’s Awards for Industry. It went on to say that ‘the
20111 Queen’s Awards for Environmental Achievement this year provide
1 ample support for the thesis that helping the environment can
2 help company profits too.’34
3 More specifically, ICF Kaiser, one of the United States’ largest
4 engineering consulting groups, discovered that companies that
5 ‘green’ their corporate practices can make their shareholders up to
6 5 per cent richer. According to Kaiser, when risks are reduced by
7 the introduction of responsible corporate environmental practices
8 – and the improvements are communicated to Wall Street – com-
9 panies become more attractive investments. The study found that
30
Adopting a more environmentally proactive posture has, in addition
1
to any direct environmental and cost-reduction benefits, a signifi-
2 cant and favourable impact on the firm’s perceived riskiness to
3 investors and, accordingly, its cost of equity capital and value in the
4111 market place.35
24 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 INVESTORS
2
3 For investors then, whether a company is a citizen brand is a crucial
4 piece of information. This raises two questions. What evidence is
5 there that good corporate citizenship is related to an increased share
6 price? And is this recognized by investors?
7 Clearly on the first point there are some specific examples
8 where being a good citizen is not enough to maintain a company’s
9 position in the stock market – Marks and Spencer being a current
10 high profile example of this. But, as I discuss below, this partly
1 reflects other business issues – being a citizen brand on its own
2 is not enough to guarantee success. But, evidence from specifically
3 focused social, environmental or ethical funds – which by defin-
4 ition cover a broader range of companies – does suggest a link.
5 The Social Investment Forum analysed the performance of socially
6 responsible mutual funds and found that they had done well on
7 both a one year and three year basis.39 It quotes Wiesenberger, a
8 Thomson Financial company, as finding that 25 out of the 46
91111 social and environmental mutual funds were in the top quartile
20111 of their investment categories over three years (so over 50 per
1 cent are in the top 25 per cent of all funds). Nine of the funds
2 (20 per cent ) are in the top 10 per cent.
3 In 1997, US academics Robert D. Klassen and Curtis P.
4 McLaughlin assessed what happened to companies that won
5 environmental awards and those that were involved in disasters like
6 oil spills.40 They found the positive news produced an average rise
7 in share price of nearly 1 per cent, while a problem produced a fall
8 of 1.5 per cent.
9 It is perhaps not surprising, therefore, that investors are increas-
30 ingly taking account of citizenship issues, although there is clearly
1 some way to go before it becomes universal. Critical in this will
2 be the actions of investors themselves and their advisers. Evidence
3 from both suggests a keen awareness of the issues. There is now,
4111 too, an obligation in Britain for pension fund trustees to define
26 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 – it lost touch with what its market wanted. And if there is one
2 danger that can arise from corporate citizenship it is that it can
3 turn into paternalism and arrogance when the company is partic-
4 ularly successful. So, despite being a good corporate citizen Marks
5 and Spencer lost the plot. But, and this is the important point, its
6 behaviours and actions in the past, its inherent values, mean it
7 retains a special position in British consumers’ hearts. It has that
8 bank of goodwill. Despite its poor recent performance it still has
9 very high consumer ratings on critical citizenship issues as I show
10 in the next chapter.
1 With a new management team in place that is taking a more
2 proactive approach to its customer base and yet which retains the
3 fundamental values that have been part of the business for many
4 years the chances are that the company will re-establish itself.
5 Hewlett Packard’s position is a more puzzling one. Having
6 grown revenues and earnings every year for the last five years, its
7 main problem seems to be that it is not as successful as some of
8 its hi-tech competitors. In November 2000 it announced year-on-
91111 year revenue growth of 17 per cent yet disappointed the market
20111 by missing its earnings per share target. But this is a solid company
1 and a good corporate citizen – it will be a surprise if it is not
2 still a major player in years to come.
3 My final example – Virgin – is rather different. It does put its
4 employees first and is very consumer focused but it does it in an
5 unorthodox way. Richard Branson himself makes the point: ‘Virgin
6 Direct illustrates one of the great strengths of the Virgin Group:
7 we thrive on mavericks [ my emphasis]’.47 It thrives on being differ-
8 ent. ‘To some traditionalists . . . the fact that Virgin has minimal
9 management layers, no bureaucracy, a tiny board and no massive
30 global HQ is an anathema’.48 But most important of all in my view
1 is the way Virgin positions itself so clearly as a consumer champion.
2 It is one of us, it is a citizen, it is a citizen brand.
3 This positioning of Virgin, and its success, highlights an im-
4111 portant point about being a citizen brand. As I show in the next
30 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 chapter, the ideal citizen brand is not only sympathetic, trustworthy
2 and friendly but also dynamic and innovative. Virgin’s success –
3 its connection with society – is based on its understanding of
4 consumer needs, its innovation in addressing those and its deter-
5 mination to take on monopolistic or complacent competition. As
6 I also show later, it is much easier to gain the benefits of being
7 a citizen brand in more competitive markets than in less compet-
8 itive ones. If Virgin has thrived on its dynamism in competitive
9 markets, Marks and Spencer’s current plight demonstrates the
10 dangers of complacency that follow from market domination and
1 the lack of innovation that can ensue.
2 Hewlett Packard, Marks and Spencer and Virgin are all brands
3 that have something about them that is more than just an offer of
4 good quality or service or value for money.That something comes
5 from their internal values and their views about their roles and
6 positions in the world. HP wants to make the world a better place,
7 M&S wants a cohesive and prosperous community,Virgin to cham-
8 pion the consumer.They all, in their own different ways, epitomize
9 some aspect of citizen brands. It is not a guarantee that they will
20111 succeed in the future, but it certainly gives them a head start.
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BRANDS, CITIZENSHIP
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91111 f the last chapter provided case study and other evidence of
20111 the strategic and financial importance of being a citizen brand,
1 this chapter concentrates on a range of consumer research studies.
2 The aim here is to:
3
4 ■ Understand the wider concerns of consumers and citizens,
5 ■ Assess the extent to which this affects (if at all) their consumer
6 decisions and their perceptions and expectations of companies,
7 ■ Investigate the process or relationship between the two.
8
9 In particular, I am going to draw on three pieces of research
30 carried out by myself and my colleagues at the Future Foundation.
1 The first was a project commissioned by British Telecom in 1997,1
2 the second was some work conducted jointly with Richmond
3 Events and Consumers’ Association in 1998 and 1999,2 while the
4111 third involves a special analysis of the Future Foundation’s annual
34 CITIZEN BRANDS
2 Figure 2.1 Altruism and self-interest. How concerned people are about
3 different issues – mean scores.
4111 Source: The Responsible Organisation, BT/Future Foundation.
36 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 example, in their day-to-day lives it is things like crime, the health
2 service and education that most people are worried about. These
3 also get the highest ratings as issues facing society generally.
4 To illustrate the point further, an analysis of different groups
5 in society highlights how people’s own specific circumstances will,
6 not surprisingly, condition the issues that they are personally
7 concerned about. For example:
8
9 ■ Women who are not working are more concerned about the
10 local community (50 per cent higher than the total popula-
1 tion) clearly because they spend more time in it (and are more
2 likely either to have children or be elderly making them more
3 dependent on local amenities and services).
4 ■ Parents with school age children are more concerned about
5 education.
6 ■ Those in society who have suffered most from redundancy in
7 the last few decades are more concerned about unemploy-
8 ment. The proportion of middle-aged manual workers who
9 are worried about this is nearly a third higher than the popu-
20111 lation as a whole.4
1
2 This is not to say that altruistic concerns do not exist. The
3 British Telecom study found that a significant minority of the
4 population (around 10 per cent ) was extremely concerned about
5 specific ethical issues like human rights, fair trade or third world
6 poverty. (These issues are not included in Figure 2.1 as respon-
7 dents were not asked whether they were worried that they might
8 be personally affected by them – for the simple reason that very
9 few people in Britain are likely to be so. Most people do not, for
30 example, have relatives living in the third world, let alone suffering
1 from poverty or exploitative labour practices. Nor do many have
2 friends or family living under human rights abusing regimes.
3111 Certainly, there are not enough to generate sufficient responses in
a standard sized sample survey.) The study also found that slightly
BRANDS, CITIZENSHIP AND CONSUMERS 37
5 40%
6
7 30%
8 20%
9
10%
10
1 0%
1986 1999
2
3 Figure 2.2 Declining sympathy for the unemployed. Proportion who
4 agree that ‘there is too much emphasis on the unemployed and they
could get jobs if they really wanted to’.
5
Source: nVision, Future Foundation.
6
7
8 Second, social and economic trends point to an increase in
9 concern among consumers along both dimensions.You might have
20111 thought that if issues like crime, poverty and educational standards
1 can be addressed and the effects mitigated, then we would expe-
2 rience a decline in those general concerns that are driven by
3 self-focused fears. The reality though is more complex as people’s
4 analysis of their own situation is often a relative rather than absolute
5 one. For example, although most people are better-off, income
6 polarization is increasing the downside risks and implications of,
7 for example, failing to keep up in the job market. Although
8 spending on health care and education may be rising (as it has in
9 real terms in the UK) expectations are increasing at an even higher
30 rate, making the delivered service seem inferior. Although we live,
1 in general, in a safer and healthier world, we are more concerned
2 – even paranoid – about a range of issues likely to affect us person-
3111 ally.This is all part of one paradox of a world of ‘peace and plenty’
that I discuss more fully in Chapters 5 and 8.
BRANDS, CITIZENSHIP AND CONSUMERS 39
1111 credibility to the exercise (as people were clearly thinking about
2 the specific formulations being presented to them and making
3 considered opinions on the basis of that) but also reinforces the
4 fact that such concerns are, in effect, ‘nice to have’ rather than
5 ‘must have’.
6 Another example of how consumer decision making might be
7 influenced in this way is the boycotting of goods or companies.
8 Again, the evidence here is not as clear as might be hoped but
9 certainly a range of questions asked in the 1990s points to an
10 increasing willingness of consumers to pursue such action. Figure
1 2.4 shows a compilation of survey questions from various sources
2 on the issue of consumer boycotts. Some relate to ethical issues,
3 some to specific environmental ones. Some ask about whether
4 people have at some point engaged in a boycott, others whether
5 they would consider it. As all the questions are slightly different,
6 it is difficult to draw clearcut conclusions but there is certainly an
7
8 70%
Were prepared to I would not deal with
9 boycott over ethical a company if I disliked
20111 60% standards ^ its ethics ^^
Operating some
1 boycott *
50%
2
3 40% Had boycotted over
ethical standards ^
4 Had seriously
30% considered doing so **
5 Avoid products
6 20%
damaging
Had boycotted
the ozone
product on
7 layer *
environmental grounds
8 10% **
9
0%
30 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
1
Figure 2.4 A growing readiness to boycott? Percentage agreeing to each
2 statement.
3111 Source: Who are the Ethical Consumers?,8 Co-operative Bank; *Daily Telegraph;
**Research 2000; ^Gallup; ^^GGT.
BRANDS, CITIZENSHIP AND CONSUMERS 43
1111
Provide good & consistent service
2 Honest & fair
3 Treat customers fairly
4 Good at handling complaints
5 Honest & truthful advertising
6 Use information responsibly 1999
1111 For example, take two particular, and very important, issues:
2 trusting companies to be ‘honest and truthful in their advertising’
3 and to be ‘open in providing details about the company’. Figure 2.6
4 shows that the best companies have twenty times more consumers
5 trusting them (a great deal or mostly) on these aspects than the
6 worst do.
7 As far as individual companies are concerned, on these dimen-
8 sions Nike, Sky and Marlboro are towards the bottom of the British
9
10 Marks and Spencer
1 Body Shop
2 BBC
3 Kodak
4 Tesco
5 Cadbury
6 Virgin
7 BT
8 Disney
91111 Nestlé
20111
Shell
1
British Airways Open in providing details
2 about the company
Coca Cola
3
Barclays Honest and truthful in
4 advertising
Microsoft
5
Dixons
6
Nike
7
Sky
8
Marlboro
9
30 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
1
Figure 2.6 Whether company trusted to be ‘honest and truthful in
2 advertising’/‘open in providing details about the company’. Percentage
3 saying a great deal or mostly.
4111 Source: Future Foundation/Consumers’ Association/Richmond Events.
46 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111
2
3 Old
4 Conventional
Rover
5 WH Smith Boring
Lazy
6 Cadbury
Kodak
1111 Body Shop is seen as more sympathetic than Virgin but less
2 dynamic; Tesco is seen as more dynamic than Sainsbury but less
3 trustworthy.
4 What is perhaps most interesting are the companies occupying
5 the area in the bottom right-hand corner of the map. The adjec-
6 tives respondents associated with these companies are not ideal
7 brand attributes: ruthless, deceitful, greedy, cynical and the like.
8 Some of the world’s biggest brands are here – Marlboro, Nike, Coca
9 Cola and Microsoft – as is British satellite broadcaster Sky. To
10 reinforce the point, listed in Table 2.1 are the top five adjectives that
1 were associated with three of the world’s best-known brands.They
2 are set alongside the adjectives for Virgin, a brand that if not as
3 ‘famous’ still has significant global brand awareness and certainly
4 was better placed on the map. The contrast is stark.
5 However, many of these poorly ranked brands (in terms of
6 adjectives) have been highly successful in commercial terms over
7 the last few years. On one measure of this, seven of the companies
8 included in the survey rank within Interbrand’s top 60 world
9 brands by brand value.11 But Figure 2.8 shows how many of these
20111 fall in the ‘nether’ zone of the adjectives map.
1 This raises some important questions. If these companies have
2 such a strong brand valuation and if some are highly successful
3 commercially, why do they have such negative associations in some
4 customers’ minds? More importantly, does it therefore matter
5 whether consumers think you are greedy or ruthless or cynical if
6 they keep buying your products?
7 I believe it does for the simple reason that past or current
8 commercial success is no guarantee of success in the future.
9 Moreover, the chances of a company or brand failing in the future
30 depend in part on current perceptions of it. In any case, some of
1 these companies have been successful in part because of the market
2 conditions under which they operate. An obvious example from
3111 those businesses included in this survey is British satellite broad-
caster Sky.
3
2
1
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
30
10
4111
1111
20111
91111
Table 2.1 Adjectives associated with certain companies
1111
2
3
4
5
6 Kodak
16
7
8 49
Shell
9
10 Greedy
1 Ideal 1 Difficult Secretive
Coca Cola
2 Ambitious Aggressive Heartless
Deceitful Marlboro
3 Cynical
Disney
Exclusive
Ruthless
10
4 Nike
6 Young 28
5 Company
Microsoft
6 Adjective
2
7 10 World ranking on
brand value
8
9 Figure 2.8 Brand value – do we have the right measures? Brand and
20111 adjective ‘map’ and ranking on Interbrand’s brand value.
1 Source: Interbrand, Future Foundation/Consumers’ Association/Richmond
Events.
2
3
4 Thanks to a benign regulatory environment Sky has, until now,
5 been the only satellite broadcaster in Britain. Of course it does
6 have multi-channel competitors in the form of cable companies,
7 but cable is still being rolled out across the country. Sky also now
8 has a terrestrial digital television competitor in ONdigital but for
9 many years benefited from first mover advantage. Through its own
30 skill and audacity, Sky also bought film and sports rights giving it
1 a huge advantage in content too. (Again, these are available through
2 the cable operators but are heavily branded as Sky and the
3111 revenues, of course, go to Sky.) Thus, many people had little option
but to subscribe to the Sky service, either directly or through
BRANDS, CITIZENSHIP AND CONSUMERS 51
1111 cable operators. The same continues to happen with Sky’s new
2 digital offer.
3 Consider some of the other companies in that quadrant of the
4 map. Microsoft too is in a near monopoly position with its Windows
5 products and although Coca Cola has a major competitor in Pepsi
6 Cola, between them they account for the vast majority of cola sales
7 around the world. Marlboro, although it has many competitors, sells
8 an addictive product that has no alternative – the market may not
9 be a monopoly but the product certainly is.
10 Indeed, the only brand in that quadrant of the map that
1 stands out as not having some special market factors in its favour
2 is Nike. The poor perception of Nike is almost certainly linked
3 to the bad publicity it has received over the claimed ill-treatment
4 of its workers in its third world factories (see Chapter 9). To
5 date, that does not seem to have affected its commercial success
6 but whether that will still be the case in the future remains to
7 be seen.
8 What is clearly true is that if any of these companies were
91111 asked whether they were happy to have themselves perceived in
20111 this way, the answer would be a resounding no. This is not an
1 ideal positioning to have and most businesses in this situation,
2 whatever their current commercial fortunes, would seek to address
3 it. Some already have.
4 Sky, perhaps in part because it is starting to face real compe-
5 tition for the first time, has tried to rid itself of its old aggressive,
6 ‘macho’ image. Mark Booth, CEO from 1997 until 1999 made a
7 start in June 1998 when he said ‘BSkyB has been aggressive with
8 its pricing in the past, and there is a trust issue we are committed
9 to turning round’.12 Recent indications from the company suggest
30 that the initiative is being maintained.
1 Coca Cola too has had a change of heart – this, though,
2 prompted by a poor set of results. As new Chairman and Chief
3 Executive Douglas Daft baldly put it: ‘After 15 years of consistent
4111 success, [in 1999] we endured a year of dramatic setbacks’.13 Daft’s
52 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 response has been to develop a new strategy that tries to recon-
2 nect the company with society. This is built around three strands:
3
4 1. ‘Think local, act local’ – the aim here being to reconnect to
5 the local communities where, after all, local people drink indi-
6 vidual bottles in local settings.
7 2. ‘Focus as a pure marketing company’ – since, as Daft notes,
8 Coca Cola’s ‘success flows from the strength of our brands,
9 and our ability to relate to people’.
10 3. ‘Lead as model citizens’ – because ‘in every community where
1 we sell our brands, we must remember we do not do busi-
2 ness in markets; we do business in societies.’14
3
4 It is clear that Douglas Daft recognizes that the way Coca
5 Cola is perceived across the globe leaves much to be desired –
6 and, more importantly, that it is unsustainable. In his mind, although
7 he has not put it exactly in this way, it needs to have a better
8 understanding of, and relationship with, society – to be, in other
9 words, a citizen brand.
20111 All this suggests that many large, multinational companies not
1 only recognize that there are negative feelings about them but also
2 recognize they should do something about it. Whether they are
3 doing enough is another matter.
4
5
6 T H E I M PA C T O N C O N S U M E R S
7
8 If we take two of the key points from this chapter and think of
9 their combined impact, then the potential effect on companies is
30 profound.
1 First, I have shown that as affluence increases consumers
2 become more likely to change their purchasing patterns as a result
3111 of wider concerns – they are more likely to be ‘ethical’ consumers.
Second, people are becoming increasingly cynical of companies’
BRANDS, CITIZENSHIP AND CONSUMERS 53
1111 behaviour. Taken together, this suggests that the public’s percep-
2 tion of a corporation’s attitude to and understanding of broader
3 social issues and, indeed, that company’s behaviour in society at
4 large, is becoming more influential in determining buying patterns
5 and brand choice.
6 Analysis of consumer survey data covering the last twenty years
7 certainly seems to support this thesis. The surveys initially
8 conducted by market research company Taylor Nelson (now Taylor
9 Nelson Sofres) and now continued by the Future Foundation
10 investigate a range of social values and consumer attitudes.15 I have
1 re-analysed some of the questions to consider these two aspects
2 of ‘ethical’ consumption and cynicism towards companies. For the
3 first dimension – how wider concerns might be influencing
4 consumer behaviour – I created an index by combining each
5 respondent’s responses to two questions:16
6
7 ■ how people felt about ‘companies that do things which are
8 profitable but not morally right’ (and, in particular, whether it
91111 made them angry);
20111 ■ agreement with the statement: ‘I would be willing to pay as
1 much as 10 per cent more a week for grocery items if I could
2 be sure that they would not harm the environment’.
3
4 To assess the question of cynicism towards companies I used agree-
5 ment (and disagreement) with the statement:
6
7 ■ ‘most companies in this country are fair to consumers’.
8
9 As before in this chapter, these questions are far from ideal.
30 If we were seeking to specifically research these issues today we
1 would ask different and more direct questions. But, these ques-
2 tions do allow us to get a feel for the issues under consideration
3 and do at least allow us to compare change in consumer attitudes
4111 over a long period of time.
54 CITIZEN BRANDS
8 5%
9
0%
30 1980 1999
1
Figure 2.9 Seeking citizen brands? Proportion of consumers who are
2 potentially influenced by wider/‘ethical’ issues and who are cynical about
3111 companies – defined in two ways.
Source: nVision, Future Foundation.
BRANDS, CITIZENSHIP AND CONSUMERS 55
1111 proportion of ‘hard nuts’ – those with the most strongly held
2 ethical and anti-corporatist views – is much smaller than those
3 with a still concerned but more equivocal outlook. This is consis-
4 tent with other research studies in the area of ethical consumption.
5 Third, it still affects only a minority of the consuming public.
6 This last point is an important one since at this rate it might
7 take perhaps 20 years before the majority of the population could
8 be characterized as caring about citizen brands. It would, however,
9 be a mistake in my view to interpret it like this. For a start, few
10 companies can ignore even 15 per cent of their consumers let
1 alone 35 per cent. Then, there is the fact that, as I showed earlier,
2 those consumers who many companies most cherish – those in
3 higher social grades and with most discretionary spending power
4 – are more likely to have these wider concerns and, research shows,
5 more likely to pay a price premium for products embracing them.
6 Then there are the dynamics within society. As the nature of work
7 changes, so more people are entering managerial, professional and
8 administrative occupations – moving into higher social grades.
91111 Society is ageing too and, as I show in Chapter 9, it is the ‘new’
20111 old – those who are passing their 50th birthday now or during
1 the next 10 years – who are the most cynical about companies.
2 Finally, it is clear that attitudes towards companies, their operating
3 practices and their relationship with society has suddenly become
4 a hot and potentially disruptive issue as I discuss also in Chapter
5 9. Whether this is just a flash in the pan remains to be seen. I
6 suspect it is not, but in any case, surely it would be foolish for
7 the business world to dismiss it as such.
8
9
30 T H E R E L AT I O N S H I P B E T W E E N L O YA LT Y,
1 T R U S T A N D C O R P O R AT E C I T I Z E N S H I P
2
3 The final piece of analysis of consumer research that I wish to
4111 draw on involves using multivariate statistical techniques to look
56 CITIZEN BRANDS
30
10
3111
1111
20111
% feeling company % feeling company
has had very/fairly has had excellent
good press or very good
coverage advertising
90 70
80
60
70
50
60
50 40
40 30
30
20
20
10
10
0 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
% trusting a great deal/mostly % trusting a great deal/mostly
Figure 2.10 The relationship between communications activity and trust. Does press activity have more of an impact?
Source: Future Foundation/Consumers’ Association/Richmond Events.
BRANDS, CITIZENSHIP AND CONSUMERS 59
1 Trust in
company/brand
2
3
4 Whether perceived
as good citizen
5
6 Whether seen as
7 open/transparent
8 ?
?
9
30 Communications
activity
1 Lower
1111 Third, and related to this, the adjectives some consumers most
2 associate with some companies are, to say the least, far from ideal
3 as far as those companies, presumably, are concerned. Some of the
4 world’s biggest brands may be ubiquitous, ‘famous’, have great
5 brand recall and be commercially successful but underneath that
6 there are some negative connotations in consumers’ minds. This
7 suggests that current measures of brand ‘value’ may be missing
8 something. Certainly, some brands should be feeling rather uneasy.
9 Finally, the importance of trust – and through that, of citizen-
10 ship and transparency – on customer loyalty has been demonstrated.
1 So, being a good corporate citizen (and being open and accessible
2 is surely, in itself, a component of that) is already important for
3 corporate and brand success. For a variety of reasons that I discuss
4 later it seems likely that it will become more so in the future.
5 These are all important points and I pick up and develop a
6 number of them in later chapters. I also consider the implications
7 for business strategy and behaviour. But first, I want to consider
8 some of the philosophical objections to corporate citizenship and
91111 do that by looking at the historical development of it.
20111
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
30
1
2
3
4111
1111
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
20111
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
30
1
2
3111
1111
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
91111
20111
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
30
BEYOND
1
2
PHILANTHROPY
3
4111
1111
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
20111
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
30
1
2
3111
1111
2
3 CHAPTER 3
4
5
6
7
BEYOND PHILANTHROPY
8
9 Searching for a New
10 Consensus
1
2
3
4
5
6
D
7
8
91111
20111 espite all the evidence that good corporate citizens are
1 more commercially successful, there continues to be a vigorous
2 argument about the roles and responsibilities of companies. On the
3 one side are those who believe that a company’s main (and some-
4 times sole) responsibility is to its owners/shareholders. On the other
5 are people who argue that companies have a moral and ethical
6 responsibility to consider a wider range of stakeholders.
7 At one level, the existence of this debate seems strange. You
8 would have thought that given the evidence from the previous
9 two chapters shareholders would be clamouring for companies to
30 be better corporate citizens. They would actively want the com-
1 panies they invest in to have a better awareness and understanding
2 of society’s concerns, sometimes even taking a more active role in
3 directly helping to address social and economic problems. They
4111 would want a company to be open and transparent and to be great
66 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 sweets, or fat geese for Christmas. On the other hand, if you leave
2 this money with me, I shall provide for you everything that makes
3 life pleasant – viz, nice houses, comfortable homes and healthy recre-
ation. Besides I am disposed to allow profit sharing in no other form.4
4
5 In America, similar, but slightly more pragmatic, attitudes were
6 being espoused by the likes of Henry Ford:
7
8 I don’t believe we should make such an awful profit on our cars.
9 A reasonable profit is right, but not too much. I hold that it is better
to sell a large number of cars at a reasonably small profit . . . I hold
10
this because it enables a larger number of people to buy and enjoy
1 the use of a car and because it gives a larger number of men employ-
2 ment at good wages. Those are the two aims I have in life.5
3
4 Ford was responding to criticism over his high wage rates
5 (roughly double the industry standard) and aggressive pricing
6 policies that had seen a more than 50 per cent reduction in prices
7 between 1908 and 1916, even though demand for his cars ex-
8 ceeded supply. Although now, we might view this as pragmatic
9 business decision-making, at the time it caused a furore in the
20111 business world. The Wall Street Journal claimed Ford had a ‘naïve
1 wish for social improvement’ and had injected ‘spiritual prin-
2 ciples into a field where they do not belong’, while two share-
3 holders took legal action against him to stop such ‘philanthropic’
4 activity.6
5
6
7 THE END OF PHILANTHROPY?
8
9 As the twentieth century progressed though, the state became more
30 involved in welfare provision, the regulation of corporate behav-
1 iour and the conditions under which people worked. Across
2 Europe, welfare state systems were initiated, most notably in Britain
3111 in 1946. At the same time, many industries were brought under
state control.
BEYOND PHILANTHROPY 69
10
10
1
2 0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
3
4 Figure 3.1 Government spending as a proportion of GDP.
5 Source: Office of National Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis (US
6 Department of Commerce).
7
8 The involvement of the state hit a peak in the UK in the
91111 mid-1970s when government spending reached nearly 50 per cent
20111 of Gross Domestic Product. A similar, but less extreme pattern
1 occurred in the United States too, with the total of federal and
2 state spending peaking, at a bit under 25 per cent, also in the
3 1970s (Figure 3.1).
4 The rise in state involvement in welfare is illustrated by the
5 legislation that was enacted during the course of the industrial-
6 ization process. In Britain in the hundred year period between the
7 middle of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, a whole host
8 of welfare related acts of parliament were passed, ranging from
9 those covering poverty, to health, to workers’ rights.The immediate
30 post-war era represented the height of this activity, with the Labour
1 government’s launch of the National Health Service (and, wide-
2 spread nationalization).
3 A look at the legislation during this period suggests three dis-
4111 tinct phases (see Figure 3.2). First, to counter the worst problems
70 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 £
500
2 Richest
450
3 Median
400
4 Poorest
350
5
300
6 250
7 200
8 150
9 100
10 50
1 0
2 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996
Belgium
Canada
France
Germany
Italy
Japan
Netherlands
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
UK
USA
Non-US ave.
30
1
2
3111 Figure 3.4 Chief Executive Officer pay in advanced countries. Ratio
of CEO to worker pay.
Source: The State of Working America, 1999.
BEYOND PHILANTHROPY 75
1111 The narrowing gap between the two sides suggests that a subtle
2 shift in the analysis and position of each side could lead to agree-
3 ment.This requires two things. First, as I argued in the introduction
4 to this book, it would be better to view corporate citizenship
5 not as an obligation but as something of mutual benefit arising out
6 of the interdependent relationship between business and society.
7 Second, companies need to get away from an overly short-term
8 focus and be bolder in promoting good citizenship as being in
9 shareholders’ longer-term interests.
10 This suggests that those campaigning for business to be more
1 ‘engaged’ with society might do better not to suggest that this is
2 a moral, ethical or philanthropic issue and should certainly avoid
3 sounding righteous or political. Business activity in this area is not
4 a substitute for the state. Rather, it is about getting business to
5 engage in citizenship because it is good for society and good for
6 business. Realistically, we must recognize the pressures on com-
7 panies in today’s global economy and their justifiable need to make
8 profits. The focus therefore needs to be on the business case for
91111 any initiative, emphasizing that decisions about citizenship are legit-
20111 imate business decisions. It is important to make clear that this is
1 not, as Samuel Brittan feared, ‘a charter for management to do
2 what it likes without accountability’ but rather a pragmatic analysis
3 for the benefit of shareholders.
4 Those on the shareholder-is-supreme side of the argument
5 should see this as a straightforward business issue. They might do
6 better to forgo pedantic debates about who responsibilities are to
7 or for and just get on with making the correct strategic choices.
8 Here, the evidence is overwhelming. In the long run, being a good
9 corporate citizen is a sensible strategy because:
30
1 ■ As I have shown in the past two chapters, it is correlated to
2 commercial success.
3 ■ It is just plain good business sense. Management gurus implore
4111 companies to be great employers – this is accepted as a
78 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 perfectly sensible strategy. They exhort the need to put the
2 customer at the centre of the company and this is embraced
3 without question. Citizenship – a company’s relationship with
4 society and the people (including customers and employees)
5 and organizations within it – is just another aspect of this.
6 ■ As I argue throughout this book citizenship is important
7 because increasingly it impacts on corporate and product brand-
8 ing. If corporate citizenship is an integral part of branding, and
9 branding is a major responsibility of the marketing function,
10 and marketing is recognized as an increasingly important strate-
1 gic issue, is not corporate citizenship a strategic issue?
2
3 Crucially then, this is not about benefaction or philanthropy.
4 Importantly, as the business case becomes increasingly accepted,
5 being a citizen brand will not be seen as a ‘nice-to-have’ add-on
6 but as a crucial aspect of corporate strategy. Indeed, I suspect that
7 the nature of the criticism that corporate managers worry about
8 will change. At present, I get the feeling that a number of exec-
9 utives fear castigation for wasting time and resources on ‘fluffy’
20111 citizenship activities rather than concentrating on hard-nosed busi-
1 ness problems and shareholders’ needs. In the future their concern
2 is more likely to be the charge that they are jeopardizing share-
3 holder needs by ignoring such citizenship issues.
4
5
6 BACK TO THE FUTURE?
7
8 Some might dismiss my arguments as nothing new. It sounds very
9 similar to the ‘enlightened self interest’ that Robert W. Johnson Jr,
30 of Johnson & Johnson, referred to as long ago as 1935:
1
In 1935 Johnson . . . echoed these sentiments in a philosophy that he
2 called ‘enlightened self-interest’ wherein ‘service to customers [his empha-
3111 sis] comes first . . . service to employees and management second, and
. . . service to stockholders last’. Later (in 1943), he added service to the
BEYOND PHILANTHROPY 79
T
6
7
8
91111 he previous three chapters have discussed, and I hope
20111 demonstrated, the correlation between citizenship, branding and
1 business performance and then some of the historical baggage that
2 restricts objective analysis of it. But there remains an outstanding
3 question: Why does being a citizen brand result in greater busi-
4 ness success?
5 A major criticism of corporate citizenship as an issue has always
6 been that there is no coherent ‘model’ of why it is linked to
7 commercial success. Without a ‘model’ – a concrete explanation
8 of the processes involved – citizenship appears in the boardroom
9 as a fuzzy, woolly, ‘nice-to-have’, rather than a pragmatic, sensible,
30 ‘must-have’. This chapter aims to redress that by describing the
1 process by which I believe it works. I touched on this in Chapter
2 2 when discussing some of the consumer research studies but here
3 I expand on the model to provide an integrated explanation of
4111 how the process operates.
84 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 This is no easy task for two reasons. First, a broad range of
2 diverse issues is involved. How, for example, can you have a model
3 that includes such factors as environmental consciousness, work-
4 life balance, fair trade policies and concerns about third world
5 poverty? This all-embracing approach not only tends to ‘clutter’
6 the argument – as it includes so much – but it tends to under-
7 mine it too through the breadth of its claims. How can one process
8 achieve all these things?
9 It also raises the spectre of political agendas being pursued
10 underneath the banner of corporate citizenship. For example,
1 different advocacy or pressure groups might be tempted to promote
2 their own specific aims under the more general, larger, and there-
3 fore legitimizing, umbrella of corporate responsibility. So, environ-
4 mentalists rub shoulders with employment rights activists, art
5 supporters with human rights campaigners.1
6 Second the process is complex and difficult to track and the
7 direct impact hard to measure, raising similar problems to those
8 encountered in the analysis of advertising. Thus, the breadth and
9 complexity of the issue potentially undermines its credibility.
20111 But, in fact the whole process can be described more simply.
1 There are, I believe, two specific factors that explain why corporate
2 citizenship leads to improved commercial success: one that incor-
3 porates all those activities that lead to direct and measurable impacts;
4 and one that involves indirect and less easily measurable impacts.
5 The term citizen brand incorporates both aspects although in the
6 context of this book it is the indirect element that is most im-
7 portant as it goes to the heart of my contention about the relation-
8 ship between citizenship and branding. Being less direct and harder
9 to measure does not mean that it is any less important.
30 For this reason I will limit my discussion of the direct impacts
1 to an overview and some brief examples, in order to concentrate on
2 the indirect component. In reality the distinction between the two
3111 is not as clear cut as I would like, as I point out later, but I do believe
it helps in understanding and describing the processes involved.
A MODEL FOR CITIZEN BRANDS 85
1111 D I R E C T I M PA C T S
2
3 What do I mean by direct impacts? Here I am referring to specific
4 initiatives, that can be categorized as environmentally or socially
5 responsible behaviour, that have been implemented precisely for
6 their environmental or social impact but which also result in
7 tangible commercial benefits.The major components are as follows.
8
9
10 Environmental Initiatives
1
2 There are at least three reasons why taking account of environ-
3 mental concerns is linked with commercial success. First, it can
4 be a catalyst for change, leading to innovative and more produc-
5 tive solutions. Here, there is considerable evidence that taking a
6 more environmentally conscious approach leads to improved effi-
7 ciency. An example is Dow Chemicals’ new environmental
8 equipment and programmes that had an expected return on invest-
91111 ment of between 30 and 40 per cent, as I noted in Chapter 1.
20111 Second, in today’s climate (no pun intended) companies that are
1 environmentally aware are deemed to be less risky to investors.2
2 In part, of course, this is an indirect impact too as it relates to the
3 overall perception of the company and its brand equity but I
4 include it here as there is a documented direct correlation. Third,
5 there is the direct impact on consumer behaviour. The most
6 obvious example of this is when consumers seek out or reject a
7 company or product because of its environmental credentials.
8
9
30 Employment Issues
1
2 Many studies have shown the direct benefits – in terms of greater
3 commitment, motivation and productivity – to be gained from an
4111 investment in human capital. Whether it be a clear set of core
86 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 values that workers can relate to (Collins and Porras),3 an atten-
2 tion to basic working conditions or looking more broadly at how
3 work fits in with people’s lives outside work, all can directly impact
4 on a company’s success. Sometimes, as in the case of allowing, or
5 even encouraging, flexible working, it might appear that initiatives
6 like these generate costs with no consequent payback in produc-
7 tivity and profitability. But this has been shown to be a simplistic
8 and incorrect analysis – example after example has shown that
9 flexible work hours, job sharing and the like produce real bottom
10 line benefits. Helping workers to get a better work–life balance
1 invariably helps the company too.4
2
3
4 Suppliers
5
6 In a world of outsourcing and ‘just-in-time’ processes, the role of
7 suppliers is crucial. As with employees, understanding supplier
8 needs and concerns and developing an open, mutually beneficial
9 relationship often leads to a more fruitful and productive associ-
20111 ation. Trust is a critical issue here and those companies that
1 maintain long-term trusting relationships with their suppliers are
2 likely to be rewarded with better, more flexible service.The success
3 of Japanese car companies in the 1980s was in part the result of
4 their close links with their suppliers. Talking to suppliers about
5 their own corporate citizen behaviour can have its benefits too.
6 For example, they might be persuaded to install a more environ-
7 mentally friendly production process that is, in fact, more efficient
8 and hence more profitable for them, while reducing costs for you.
9 In this way, companies can push corporate citizenship and good
30 business practice down the supply chain to mutual advantage.
1
2
3111
A MODEL FOR CITIZEN BRANDS 87
4 30%
5
20%
6
7 10%
8 0%
9 Chosen product or service Avoided products or services
on basis of company’s because of company’s
30 responsible reputation behaviour
1
Figure 4.1 Impact of social and ethical issues on consumer behaviour.
2 Proportion agreeing to each statement.
3111 Source: Research conducted by MORI for the Co-operative Bank’s report, Who
are the Ethical Consumers?, 2000.
A MODEL FOR CITIZEN BRANDS 89
7 0.50%
8
0.25%
9
10 0.00%
1 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
6
7 Work by the New Economics Foundation, also for the Co-
8 operative Bank,7 shows how consumer interest in such issues is
91111 translating into real sales, as opposed to stated opinion in market
20111 research surveys. Specific ethical products currently only take a
1 small proportion of any market. For example, fair trade sales as a
2 proportion of household expenditure on coffee, tea and cocoa
3 accounts for only just over 1 per cent. But, as the Foundation
4 notes ‘in certain key areas, market share is considerably higher’ to
5 the extent that ‘Cafédirect fairly traded roast and ground coffee
6 now has 5% of the market . . . and is growing at 9% a year’.
7 Importantly, as Figure 4.2 shows, although still small in market
8 share terms, they are growing rapidly.
9 The second reason why business should take an interest in
30 broader social issues is that companies, and the larger ones specific-
1 ally, benefit from a thriving, stable and cohesive society.To take one
2 example, lower crime rates are likely to mean not only less direct
3 crime against business (like shoplifting) but also a more secure high
4111 street and shopping environment for customers and employees.
90 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 This is the point John Banham was making when he talked of
2 ‘an increasingly deprived, resentful and repressed minority’8 as I
3 noted in the last chapter. Do companies like BT want their tele-
4 phone kiosks vandalized or Marks and Spencer their shops? Does
5 McDonalds want rough sleepers begging outside their restaurants
6 or Starbucks to have bricks thrown through its windows? Of course
7 not. And for large companies with a mass market appeal the more
8 people who can afford their products the better. Reduced poverty
9 can lead directly to increased sales. Indeed, in mature, saturated
10 markets it may be the only way to growth. Some business execu-
1 tives understand this point:
2
it is in our company’s interest that we have thriving inner cities,
3
and that people have a healthy diet.
4
5 if we work in a healthy, prosperous, growing society, we’re going to
6 do better.9
7
British Telecom, which has a dominant position in the UK
8
market for fixed line telecommunications services recognizes this
9
in particular:
20111
1 BT’s continued success depends on the skills and the resources of
2 our people, the loyalty of our customers and the health and pros-
3 perity of the communities of which we are part. Successful companies
need successful communities.10 [My emphasis]
4
5 So too does Marks and Spencer:
6
7 By supporting those communities where we operate we bring added
8 value, create safer living and working environments, better educated
young people, more effective small businesses, an enriched cultural
9
life and a healthier nation. In turn, this creates a more prosperous
30 and self-sufficient society, which is obviously good for business. Put
1 simply, healthy back streets lead to healthy high streets.11 [My emphasis]
2
3111 Meanwhile, Jac Nasser, president and chief executive officer of
Ford sees one of his most important jobs as being to ensure that
A MODEL FOR CITIZEN BRANDS 91
1111 the company is ‘doing good in the communities that we are in,
2 be it the environment, education or helping out the society that
3 we’re doing business with’.12
4
5
6 INTELLIGENT BUSINESS
7
8 All these factors also have one other direct impact on companies,
9 one that is, if anything, the most important of all – the provi-
10 sion of business intelligence. By engaging in these issues and
1 activities, businesses inevitably develop a broader, more outward-
2 looking view of their operating environment. They understand
3 better the world they operate in and their relationship with it.
4 There are many benefits from this: better market research;
5 faster anticipation of potential problems and quicker reactions to
6 them; to name but a few. In this sense, corporate citizenship
7 becomes another form of market intelligence. This is, in effect,
8 a reconfiguration of a standard exhortation of management gurus:
91111 inwardly focused companies struggle; outwardly focused ones
20111 thrive.
1 All of these initiatives are consistent with basic good manage-
2 ment practice. They all contain elements of some of the major
3 themes of current management theories as espoused by some of
4 the most respected commentators and ‘gurus’ of today. The likes
5 of Tom Peters and Robert Waterman,13 or Gary Hamel and C.
6 K. Prahalad14 and, of course, the giant of them all Peter Drucker15
7 all highlight the importance of one or more of:
8
9 ■ innovation
30 ■ employees as most valuable assets
1 ■ customer focus
2 ■ supply chain management
3 ■ flexibility
4111 ■ and being an externally focused company.
92 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 I N D I R E C T I M PA C T S
2
3 Corporate citizenship feeds indirectly into commercial success via
4 the mechanism of branding. In many ways, this is the most
5 powerful aspect of citizen brands but is, at the same time, the most
6 difficult to prove. In this, it is much like advertising.
7 Debate has raged for years about how and why advertising
8 works and continues to do so. Yet, it is not only an integral part
9 of commercial activity that is almost universally used by business
10 but expenditure on it has also been growing in real terms for
1 many decades. But people are far from clear why, and even
2 whether, it works and thus whether the expenditure is justified.
3 The old adage ‘half the money I spend on advertising is wasted,
4 and the trouble is I don’t know which half ’ has as much reso-
5 nance today as it did when it was first espoused many years ago.16
6 In fact, there is now a body of research that does allow a plau-
7 sible model of the advertising process to be developed. From this,
8 we can begin to understand why some advertising works and some
91111 does not. Mike Hall, former planning director at Leagas Delaney
20111 in London and now Group Chief Executive of Hall and Partners
1 has developed a theoretical model of how advertising works.
2 Initially based on research among practitioners and users of adver-
3 tising in 1990,17 Hall has developed the model further over the
4 ensuing years through his own experience in providing advertising
5 research services.18 The success of his company in that time is a
6 testament to the plausibility and relevance of the model – certainly
7 in the eyes of his clients. Put briefly, Hall proposes that rather than
8 there being one model of how advertising works, there are in fact
9 four major ones (and a number of sub-models that I will not elab-
30 orate upon here). These are:
1
2 ■ The sales response model – this is where advertising seeks short-
3 term changes in consumer behaviour. It stimulates direct
4111 interest in (and hence sales of ) a brand but does little in terms
94 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 This may seem like Hall’s salience model but in fact it is differ-
2 ent. Here, the advertising itself is not saying the company is big;
3 it is the very fact that advertising has taken place (which might be
4 directed towards a persuasion model, for example) that is.
5 The second, more general reason why I believe advertising
6 benefits business is that it encourages companies to take a more
7 external focus on their business. Since the development of advertising
8 planning in the 1960s, trying to understand potential customers’
9 needs and the environment they operate in is now an explicit part
10 of the development of the communications strategy.
1 This might be the theory of how advertising works but what
2 evidence is there to support the thesis? Certainly, my own expe-
3 rience in this area – having observed a number of econometric
4 projects that sought to develop sales forecasting models – is mixed.
5 More often than not the level of advertising expenditure had no
6 discernible impact on sales. But two criticisms can be made of
7 this. First, as I have just noted, not all advertising should be, or is,
8 focused directly at immediate sales increases. Second, the impact
9 of advertising may not be direct but, instead, indirect – and the
20111 indirect process may be rather complex.
1 Recent research by the British Institute of Practitioners in
2 Advertising (IPA) not only confirms this but also provides persua-
3 sive evidence that advertising works.22 The study involved a special
4 analysis from the celebrated PIMS database23 of over 200 com-
5 panies mainly operating in branded consumer products in Europe.
6 There were two main conclusions from the research. The first was
7 that it is not absolute advertising but relative spend compared
8 to competitors that is most important. Second was that ‘the correla-
9 tion between advertising and profitability is not direct but
30 indirect’.24 Both points again help to explain the failure of some
1 econometric analyses in this area.
2 The indirect process by which advertising works is through
3111 the mechanism of superior customer value. Previous analysis of
the whole of the PIMS database has shown this to be ‘a prime
A MODEL FOR CITIZEN BRANDS 97
1111
Advertising expenditure relative to competitors
2
3
4
5 Product image and company
reputation
6
7
8 Relative quality of
Relative price
9 offering
10
1
2
(Relative) Customer
3 value
4
5
6 Commercial success
7
8 Figure 4.4 How advertising indirectly affects sales and profits. Schem-
91111 atic representation.
20111 Source: Adapted from How Advertising Impacts on Profitability. PIMS
1 database/Institute of Practitioners in Advertising.
2
3
4 driver of growth and profitability’.25 Customer value is a function
5 of perceived quality and price relative to others. Advertising can
6 affect both of these: price through the sales response model and
7 quality through the persuasion model. But the IPA analysis also
8 showed that perceptions of quality could not only be affected
9 directly by advertising but also indirectly via perceptions of product
30 image and reputation. Advertising would influence these through
1 the involvement and salience models. The relationships are shown
2 in Figure 4.4.
3
4111
98 CITIZEN BRANDS
1 Better/more Improved
Increases Creates ‘goodwill’
perceived quality bank
2 trusted supplier market/business
relationships intelligence
3
Greater loyalty =
4 All aiding greater higher value
5 innovation customers
I
7
8
91111
20111 f I have shown that the concept of citizen brands is already
1 an important one for companies, why has the issue emerged in
2 the way it has? What are the social, economic, political and tech-
3 nological factors that have made this more important than it was
4 ten, twenty or thirty years ago? And will these factors continue
5 to exert an influence in the future increasing the importance of
6 citizenship to companies?
7 In this section I consider these questions to assess not only
8 why these new citizenship pressures on companies are developing
9 but also to contemplate what sort of future society business will
30 be operating in. In this first chapter I describe the new political
1 economy that is emerging as a result of the twin forces of glob-
2 alization and economic growth. In the next chapter I look at the
3 technological revolution before turning in subsequent chapters to
4111 specific aspects of consumer change: coping with discretion and
104 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 relative. But equally there is no support for the contention that
2 people despite being richer are generally more miserable.
3 Another doomsayer example is the work of American econo-
4 mist Juliet Schor, famous for her two books The Overworked
5 American3 and The Overspent American.4 Schor’s argument in the first
6 book is that Americans are working longer hours, leading to a range
7 of detrimental impacts. However, in a rather damning critique of
8 her analysis, John Robinson and Geoffrey Godbey assert that Schor’s
9 claims ‘are not supported by diary data’. This would not matter
10 so much except that Schor’s analysis was based on their own
1 time-diary data and it was, they claim, selective and partial use:
2
Schor uses our time-diary data only for 1975, and then mixes those
3 data with time-estimate data – a step we question . . . She does not
4 use our 1965 time-diary data – the major benchmark year for our
5 analyses . . . She also does not take into account our time-diary data
6 and published articles from the 1985 study.5 [My emphasis]
7
They conclude, in a rather understated way, that ‘our results and
8
conclusions about trends in hours spent at work are notably differ-
91111
ent from Schor’s’.
20111
Robert H. Frank effectively repeats Schor’s contention in his
1
book Luxury Fever: Why Money Fails to Satisfy in an Era of Success:6
2
3 All of us, rich and poor alike . . ., are spending more time at the
4 office and taking shorter vacations; we are spending less time with
our families and friends; and we have less time for sleep, exercise,
5
travel, reading and other activities that help maintain body and soul.
6
7 Yet, there is no evidence from the United States or Britain
8 that people are sleeping less: ‘sleep data show the least variance
9 across time. While many people claim they are so busy that they
30 forgo hours of sleep, little evidence of decreased sleep appears
1 [from the data]’.7 Professor Jonathan Gershuny’s data on sleep high-
2 lights a similar conclusion for Britain,8 while at the same time
3 showing that parents are spending more time on child care than
4111 they have ever done9 (Figure 5.1).
106 CITIZEN BRANDS
6 100
Approx. 85 minutes on
7 80 average per child
8
60
9
Approx. 25 minutes on
40
10 average per child
1 20
2 0
3 1961 1975 1985 1995
4 Figure 5.1 Child care time. Men and women with children under 16
5 (UK).
6 Source: Jonathan Gershuny with special analysis by Michael Willmott.
7
8 Of course the world has changed and not for the better in
9 every single case. But, by and large and by most objective measures
20111 things have improved. The refusal to accept these objective facts
1 and to search with fervour for some sign of decline or impending
2 doom may be an underlying human trait. As Brown and Duguid
3 note:
4
Since the nineteenth century when the economist Thomas Malthus
5
gloomily predicted that the geometric growth of population would
6 outstrip the arithmetic growth in resources, predictions appear regu-
7 larly that humanity is on the verge of destroying itself.10
8
9 Unfortunately, even respected British forecasting organizations
30 are prone to this. Here were some typical comments that marked
1 the end of the millennium:
2 Although the economic outlook was bright, the problems facing
3111 society at the end of the second millennium were likely to deteri-
orate by the start of the third.
PEACE AND PLENTY 107
1111 The ageing population and increased mobility, together with the
2 increase in single-person households and rising stress levels at home
3 and at work, have all led to increasing isolation for many people.11
4 This last point is a highly contentious one as all the research
5 shows that people are going out and socializing more, have more
6 people in their homes and to dinner and, thanks to the new tech-
7 nologies (see next chapter), are communicating more than ever
8 before.
9 Although doomsayers have been around throughout history
10 the discrepancy between the reality and the hype has probably
1 never been greater (certainly in the advanced economies of the
2 developed world). Thus, the critical issue for business and polit-
3 icians alike is not really people’s unhappiness or poverty or
4 ill-health but rather, it is in understanding the impact of a stable
5 and prosperous society on people’s values and behaviour. This
6 includes understanding when and where the misplaced perception
7 of decline is relevant and when and where it is not.
8
91111
PEACE AND PLENTY
20111
1 This phenomenon of ‘peace and plenty’ – as Jim Murphy12 has
2 described it – is, I believe, a crucial one in the development of
3 citizen brands because it does impact on consumer values and the
4 political environment. The argument goes as follows.
5 Despite the doom and gloom suggested by many commenta-
6 tors we currently live in unprecedented times. The end of the
7 cold war and the collapse of communism – hailed at the time as
8 a momentous event – has turned out to be just that. Diverted,
9 almost as soon as it happened, by an economic slowdown in the
30 western world (and recession in some countries like the United
1 States and Britain) it is my view that we have underestimated
2 just what impact this has had on the economics and psychology
3 of today. The peace dividend is a reality: military spending dimin-
4111 ished from 11 per cent of UK government spending in 1987 to
108 CITIZEN BRANDS
3 Figure 5.2 Less fear more fulfilment? ‘If you had just one wish, which
4 one of these would you choose?’
5 Source: nVision/Future Foundation.
6
7 new ones. So, people worry more about crime and disease and
8 about community and family. We now have a new global threat
91111 too – environmental degradation and global warming. I am not
20111 saying there are not legitimate environmental concerns – indeed,
1 I think there are – but rather that, with the threat of nuclear war
2 diminished, there is a natural tendency to concentrate on other
3 potentially catastrophic events. An important point though is that
4 these new threats are longer-term ones. Global warming is not
5 going to bring disaster literally tomorrow as nuclear war could.
6 But if these are conflated concerns with a less immediate effect
7 then surely the importance of them to people, and people’s behav-
8 iour, will be more variable? And that is exactly what has happened
9 – concern about environmental issues has fluctuated, often in tune
30 with the economic cycle. Concerns they may be, but they are less
1 deeply ingrained and, importantly, less immediately personally
2 threatening.
3 Look again at Figure 5.2. If the response ‘less fear’ has gone
4111 down, what has increased? A number of areas have gone up: ‘to
110 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111
To be well groomed
2
3 More excitement
4 Involvement in
community
5
Better way of evaluating 1999
6 quality of products
1983
7 To differ in way to
express tastes
8
9 To learn more
10 To be more creative
1
2 New experiences
1111 become a new type of war – at least for us in the West. Laser
2 guided bombs and cruise missiles weave their way precisely to
3 their military targets. While some innocent civilians ‘over there’
4 may be casualties as the odd missile goes astray or intelli-
5 gence wrongly identifies targets and while huge, and long-term,
6 hardship is caused by the destruction of infrastructure, civilians
7 at home are not threatened at all. Indeed, if the past few ‘wars’
8 are any-thing to go by, the risks faced by our military personnel
9 are pretty slim too, and the potential for public outcry limited.
10 This is a sanitized version of war for the West – more an enter-
1 tainment (as we receive round the clock, live news coverage) than
2 a threat.
3 For the developed world, Vietnam was the last serious ‘body
4 bag’ war where not only regulars, but conscripts were involved.
5 But in the 1970s and 1980s the threat of nuclear war remained.
6 Only now, and for the first time in history, do we in the West
7 have a generation of people who have never experienced the fear
8 that accompanies the prospect of them or their loved ones going
91111 to war or of their country being decimated by it. That is unprece-
20111 dented indeed.
1
2
3 NEVER HAD IT SO GOOD?
4
5 If the threat of major wars and nuclear destruction has receded,
6 are there not broader economic problems facing people, and specif-
7 ically that of poverty? Certainly, one of the more obvious economic
8 trends in a number of western economies over the last two decades
9 has been the increasing polarization of incomes. This is most
30 noticeable in some of the Anglo-Saxon economies that have most
1 readily embraced free market capitalism, like the USA and Britain.
2 Although most people view this as a bad development, with
3 increasing numbers wanting a fairer distribution (see Figure 5.4),
4111 the argument is not quite as simple as it might seem.
112 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 80%
2 70%
3
60%
4
5 50%
6 40%
7
30%
8
20%
9
10 10%
1 0%
2 1980 1983 1986 1999 2000
3 Figure 5.4 Support for a fairer division of wealth. Proportion who agree
4 that ‘there should be a fairer division of wealth and money’.
5 Source: nVision/Future Foundation.
6
First, although incomes are undoubtedly being distributed less
7
equitably, practically everyone is better off in real terms – it is just
8
that the richer are getting richer, faster. So the question is one
9
about relative, rather than real poverty since more people can afford
20111
some of the basic, and not so basic, items of life. A passage from
1
Melvin Bragg’s novel The Soldier’s Return emphasizes the point:
2
3 the inhabitants of the Rabbit Warren at the very centre of town
4 were to be sent almost a mile away, to the south, into houses with
5 three, sometimes four, bedrooms and an indoor lavatory and even a
6 bath, with gardens front and back and no damp, no TB, no rats, no
cockroaches, no chesty coughs, no beatings and worse, no stench of
7
beasts and excrement in the street.16
8
9 Compared with the past the living conditions of nearly
30 everyone are much better now. The ‘problem’ is that as living stan-
1 dards improve, so expectations increase. In the post-war period
2 that Bragg was writing about many people did not have an indoor
3111 toilet and to have one was deemed, if not a luxury, then certainly
a movement away from poverty, deprivation and misery. There was
PEACE AND PLENTY 113
5
ve
Socialization
mo
6
of
on
7
cti
re
8 Security
Di
9
30
Sustenance
1
2
3 Figure 5.7 Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. Schematic representation.
4111 Source: The Responsible Organisation, BT/Future Foundation.
118 CITIZEN BRANDS
5 10 000
6
5000
7
0
8 –40 –30 –20 –10 0 10 20 30 40 50
9 –5000
Whether companies should be engaged in setting ethical standards and building a better society
30 (a positive rating = yes – see note 25)
1
Figure 5.8 Companies, society and affluence. Belief about the role of
2 companies by Gross Domestic Product per capita.25
3111 Source: Environics/The Prince of Wales Business Leaders Forum/The Con-
ference Board/Future Foundation.
PEACE AND PLENTY 119
1111 growth and can be a force for improved social and economic con-
2 ditions around the world (see, for example, Dollar and Kray).31 But,
3 at the same time it clearly does impact upon companies, countries
4 and citizens.
5 The steady deregulation of world trade – through GATT and
6 WTO, as well as within regions such as the European Union or
7 NAFTA – is forcing businesses in all sectors to reassess their oper-
8 ations and cost bases in the face of greater competition in
9 previously protected home markets. Since the Second World War,
10 there have been really three distinct periods of trade growth. From
1 1950 until the early 1980s trade was steadily growing at an annual
2 rate of one and a half times world output. But it accelerated in
3 the 1980s in a new phase of growth, growing between 1984 and
4 1993 at nearly double the rate of output. But from the early 1990s
5 it quickened its pace again and since 1994 has been growing at
6 three times world gross domestic product (Figure 5.10).
7 As markets open ‘globally’, so supply in virtually any sector
8 can be much better organized and any kind of protective price
9 regime is left vulnerable. We are experiencing this today in the
20111
1
2 2300
2100 World trade
3 1900 World GDP
4 1700
5 1500
1300
6 1100
7 900
8 700
500
9
300
30 100
1 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998
1111 insecurity and income polarization has been felt to threaten social
2 cohesion and hence has fed the need for policies to address that.
3 This reflects the two poles of the new political economy: full-
4 hearted acceptance of the global market economy while at the
5 same time searching for mechanisms to protect individual citizens
6 from the ravages of it.
7 Begun by Bill Clinton and recreated by Tony Blair in Britain
8 as ‘the third way’, it is being adopted in varying degrees by other
9 politicians throughout Europe, most notably Lionel Jospin and
10 Gerhard Schroeder. This is not only a left-of-centre phenomenon.
1 A right-of-centre administration in Spain has followed similar poli-
2 cies and, as Charles Leadbeater has pointed out,33 George W. Bush
3 presents a similar credo under the guise of ‘compassionate conser-
vatism’. Now, Michael Portillo is doing the same from a
4
Conservative perspective in Britain.
5
This has thrown up some interesting paradoxes. Not least is
6
that those on the left have embraced stable, business friendly, free
7
market economic policies to such an extent that they are seen –
8
at least in Britain and the United States – as safe guardians of the
9
economy in the eyes of Wall Street and the City of London,
20111
perhaps even safer than their right-of-centre opponents.
1 What this new political philosophy is attempting to do is to
2 marry the principles of individual rights, social cohesion and basic
3 welfare with the economic necessity of enterprise and capitalism.
4 What this represents, as American political analyst Mark Lilla34 has
5 proposed, is the confluence of the economic credo of the 1980s
6 with the social credo of the 1960s – two generations and two
7 political persuasions brought together.
8 According to Lilla this phenomenon – the ‘politics of fusion’
9 as he puts it – explains the general consensus that exists in polit-
30 ical debate today. An acceptance of the global market economy
1 (1980s economics) together with support for individual rights and
2 a concern for a degree of social justice (1960s morality). Philip
3111 Stephens when discussing Lilla’s New York Review article summa-
rizes the argument succinctly:
PEACE AND PLENTY 123
7 Self-esteem Thatcherism/Reaganism
Targeting and
status brands
8
9 Socialization Welfarism
Mass market
focus and brands
10
Paternalism
1 Security Paternalism (and paternal brands)
2
3 Sustenance Feudalism Basic product
4
5 Figure 5.11 Maslow, political economy and corporations. Schematic
6 representation.
7 Source: Future Foundation.
8
9 self-actualization – which, I argued earlier, the more affluent in
20111 society are currently engaged in – suggests companies, products
1 and brands should start to embrace a wider perspective, adding to
2 people’s personal development and quality of life. To be, in other
3 words, citizen brands.
4 So, the combined impact of peace and plenty and globaliza-
5 tion has profound implications not just for government but for
6 companies too. It may not seem like it yet, but this is potentially
7 a very different political climate to be operating in. This is post-
8 material politics. It is free market economics and, yes, governments
9 are on the whole pro-business but there is a sting in the tail.
30 Governments, and others in society, will expect far more from the
1 corporate sector in the future – companies will be expected not
2 only to be good businesses but good citizens too.
3111 The importance of peace and plenty and globalization is not
restricted to its impact on the political economy. It directly affects
PEACE AND PLENTY 125
1111 consumer attitudes and behaviour and through that has clear impli-
2 cations for companies. I have already discussed the impact of increas-
3 ing affluence on what might be called ‘ethical’ consumption. But
4 there are other outcomes too.
5 First, and perhaps surprisingly, this new environment makes
6 consumers more demanding. The mix of never had it so good and
7 increasing concerns and worries makes people expect more. But
8 most importantly, consumers also feel empowered because most
9 of them do have a significant degree of discretion. This may seem
10 strange since I made the point earlier that there has been an
1 increase in the proportion of people whose main wish is to be
2 able to afford something. But look at consumer spending growth
3 in Britain over the last thirty years (Figure 5.12). Those areas
4 reflecting the basic needs of subsistence and security – food,
5 housing and energy – have grown but at below average rates. The
6 more discretionary areas, and the ones that reflect individual
7 choices – like leisure, clothes or household goods – have grown.
8 Thus the concern that some people express is – in the termi-
91111 nology I used earlier – not so much about absolutes but about
20111
1
Household goods
2
3 Clothing and footwear
N
6
7
8
9 o book about business, and certainly one that looks at
20111 future trends, would be complete without a chapter on new tech-
1 nology.1 But the hype about the technological revolution is now so
2 great that there is a danger that both the direction and strength of
3 its impact – the when, where and how quickly – is being exag-
4 gerated. Certainly, some respected commentators are warning of the
5 perils inherent in an uncritical analysis of the implications of digital
6 technology. John Seely Brown, head of research at the world famous
7 Xerox PARC2 no less, has in his recent book with Paul Duguid3
8 cautioned against the ‘endism’ inherent in much of contemporary
9 analysis. This is where new technology is predicted to bring
30 about the end of mass media, intermediaries, high street retailers
1 and so on.4 Seely Brown and Duguid go on to describe the myopia
2 of what they call 6-D vision, where the D stands for all those
3111 ‘futurist-favored’ words beginning with de- or dis-, such as demassifi-
cation, disintermediation or disaggregation. It is not that these two
130 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 authors deny that there are important developments taking place.
2 They accept that ‘particular institutions and particular organizations
3 are under pressure and many will not survive’ and that ‘none of the
4 D-visions is inherently mistaken or uninteresting’. But, they argue,
5 the analysis and application of it is too linear, too uni-dimensional,
6 too simplistic. They make two specific points: that other ‘revolu-
7 tions’ in the past – like the industrial revolution of the last century
8 – have been as dramatic and fast as this one; and that the effects of
9 those revolutions were critically shaped by social forces and that this
10 revolution will be no different. In order to understand the true
1 impact of new technology, they argue, we need to look beyond
2 technology itself and consider social aspects.
3 There is a lot of sense in what John Seely Brown and Paul
4 Duguid say.5 The argument that previous revolutions have been as
5 dramatic is a popular and legitimate one. Is the pace of change really
6 any greater now than that experienced in the major historical
7 revolutions involving science (in the sixteenth and seventeenth
8 centuries), agriculture (in the late eighteenth century in Europe)
9 and industry (predominantly the eighteenth and nineteenth cen-
20111 turies)? The American sociologist Daniel Bell has pointed out, for
1 example, that around a hundred years ago there was a period of
2 intense and rapid technological innovation and change, including
3 the invention or mass deployment of electricity and light, the motor
4 car and the telegraph/telephone.A visit to Thomas Edison’s summer
5 home and laboratory in Fort Myers, Florida – now a museum – is
6 a reminder of the spirit of invention and change at the beginning
7 of the twentieth century. Not only was Florida itself opened up for
8 the first time by the railway, but Edison was revolutionizing the
9 world with, among other things, batteries, phonographs, light bulbs
30 and electricity generators. His great friend and neighbour Henry
1 Ford was also doing his bit at that time to change the face of travel.
2 But valid though this argument is, to some extent it misses the
3111 point – the fact that rapid change has happened before in history
does not diminish its impact or significance now.Those revolutions
BEYOND ‘ENDISM’ 131
4 50%
5 40%
6 30%
7 20%
8 10%
9
0%
30
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
1
2 Figure 6.1 Access to interactivity via various platforms. Forecasts for
3111 the UK.
Source: nVision/Future Foundation.
BEYOND ‘ENDISM’ 133
1111 A R U N AWAY W O R L D
2
3 The technological revolution clearly helps to promote the idea that
4 the pace of change in life is getting quicker.The time scales involved
5 in new product launches are now so short that it is hard to know
6 exactly when to buy, as a better product is likely to appear tomorrow.
7 Nowhere is this more true than with computers as they get faster and
8 faster (and cheaper and cheaper) on a regular basis.Whole new tech-
9 nologies appear overnight.The result, according to Anthony Giddens
10 (who is Dean of the London School of Economics), is that it ‘feels like
1 a world out of control; a runaway world’.11 Whether people actually
2 feel less in control of their own lives and less secure as a result of this
3 is uncertain.What we do know is that the desire to be in control is
4 high (Figure 6.2).
5 But despite the lack of evidence to support or refute the thesis
6 of a ‘runaway world’, there clearly is something in the idea even
7 if it can sometimes be over-embellished.Things can, and do, change
8 rapidly; people have a wider range of choices; fewer employees
9 have (and, it should be said, want) a job for life. If things are not
20111
1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
2
Being in control of my life
3
4 Having enough money to do what I
want to do
5
6 Making the world a better place
in some way
7
8 Being recognized for my individuality
9
30 Having access to the best and
latest information
1
2 Figure 6.2 Desire to be in control. Proportion rating each element as
3111 ‘very important’ in their lives.
Source: nVision/Future Foundations.
BEYOND ‘ENDISM’ 135
1111 completely uncertain and out of control, they are less certain, less
2 given than in the past.
3 This creates a seeming paradox in that it promotes the rise of
4 short-termism (you are only as good as last quarter’s results) while
5 simultaneously focusing attention on the future (as demonstrated
6 by the plethora of books on futurology). The problem is that if
7 things are moving so fast it becomes all the more important to
8 anticipate change but harder to do so accurately. As Stewart Brand
9 points out in his book The Clock of the Long Now:
10
If taking thought for the future was essential in steady times, how
1
much more important is it in accelerating times, and how much
2 harder? It becomes both crucial and seemingly impossible.12
3
4 It is not just IT, but scientific innovation – aided, of course, by
5 technology – that in general is speeding up, affecting people’s lives
6 more directly. There are more scientists at work today than in the
7 rest of human history13 and thanks to information technology they
8 work much more closely together than in the past.This accelerates
91111 the process of innovation. As Sir Alec Broers, the vice-chancellor of
20111 Cambridge University, noted in his study of the innovation process:
1
The innovation matrix extends across groups of researchers and, in
2
many cases, across nations and the world. . . .This is perhaps the area
3 of greatest change [in scientific research] over the last 100 years.14
4
5 One result of this perception of a quickening pace of change
6 is the development of what I call a culture of immediacy. Because
7 people feel the world is moving so fast – because new technology
8 like mobile phones allows them to do it – people increasingly
9 want, and expect, things to happen or be done immediately.
30 For example, in some research conducted by the Future Founda-
1 tion, people were asked how they would like to order a holiday
2 if they had chosen it one evening, either after watching a tele-
3 vision programme or reading a brochure. Respondents were given
4111 a variety of options that included going to a travel agent, or
136 CITIZEN BRANDS
7 15%
8 10%
9 5%
10 0%
Internet users All
1
2 Figure 6.3 A culture of immediacy? Most likely method of ordering
3 a holiday after choosing from a brochure/TV programme etc.
4 Source: nVision/Future Foundation.
5
6 ordering via the telephone or the Internet. They were also asked
7 whether they would do the ordering immediately or would wait
8 until the next day (or later). Even though, in this instance, it does
9 not really matter when it takes place, Figure 6.3 shows that a
20111 significant minority – a quarter – would want to order there and
1 then. More importantly, four out of ten Internet users would do
2 so, although many of these would use the telephone rather than
3 the Internet (suggesting that in these initial stages of the Internet
4 there remain some barriers to usage). Access to technology has an
5 impact, it seems, not just on, say, the channels of distribution (the
6 how people order) but on the psychology of it (‘I want it now’).
7 Technology enables people to do things more quickly – it allows
8 immediate response.
9
30
1 A N E W C O N C E P T O F T I M E A N D S PA C E
2
3111 So, new technology is influencing how we perceive time. But it
is also affecting our sense of space – where we want to, or feel
BEYOND ‘ENDISM’ 137
1111 able to do things. This is one of the reasons why the digital revo-
2 lution is potentially so disruptive. Space and time – the where and
3 when – are critical aspects of not only social and economic life
4 but even of our sense of identity. As sociologist Manuel Castells
5 has noted:
6
the new communication system radically transforms space and time,
7 the fundamental dimensions of human life.15
8
9 Of course, the current phase of technological innovation is
10 not the only one that has impacted on time and space. Railways
1 and cars opened up countries in the last century and electricity
2 opened up the night. More recently, the telephone allowed imme-
3 diate real-time conversation between places miles apart. The
4 washing machine allowed laundry to come into the home and the
5 television created, in effect, a home cinema. All these inventions
6 affected the when and where, as well as the how. And all of them
7 were hugely successful, to the point that they are now largely
8 ubiquitous, exactly because they transformed time and space.
91111 The importance of this particular revolution in terms of time
20111 and space is twofold. First, as I discuss in the next section, it is
1 impacting on communications – both personal and with and
2 between businesses. Second, the new technology is liberating
3 because it is mobile. Think about those previous inventions that
4 I have already mentioned – it is only the motor car that, as an
5 ‘appliance’, was truly mobile; and look at the importance and
6 success of that. A more recent example was the Sony Walkman,
7 or before that the transistor radio (and look too at the success of
8 those). But the difference this time is that the technology is not
9 only mobile but is potentially interactive too.
30 People are spending more time on the move – a trend that
1 is likely to be aided and abetted by the new technology. Analysis
2 of time diary data shows that the amount of time the average
3 Briton spends neither at home, nor at work has nearly doubled
4111 over the course of the last forty years (Figure 6.4). The reason is
138 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 16%
2 14%
3 12%
4 10%
5 8%
6
6%
7
4%
8
2%
9
0%
10
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
1
2 Figure 6.4 Space – the new frontier? Percentage of waking hours spent
neither at home nor at work.
3
Source: Author’s analysis of data contained in Leisure in the UK Across the 20th
4 Century, Institute for Social and Economic Research.16
5
6
7 that we are spending more time on out-and-about activities like
8 going to bars, restaurants and other leisure pursuits and on shop-
9 ping and non-work travelling (Figure 6.5).
20111 What the new interactive mobile technology will allow is the
1 ability to access information anywhere and communicate with
2 companies in any location. People could look at holidays, and even
3 order one, while having a drink in a bar with friends. They could
4 change their supplier of car insurance after being recommended
5 to another company by a friend who is driving them to a foot-
6 ball match. They could choose a restaurant while on a train or
7 watch a sports event while sitting in the park.
8 So, the technology has the potential to revolutionize when and
9 where things are done. Wherever and whenever something is
30 currently done (one’s banking, or the purchase of insurance,
1 for example) may in the future be done somewhere else and at
2 a different time. Understanding and anticipating this revolution
3111 in space and time will be a critical factor in business success in
the future.
BEYOND ‘ENDISM’ 139
5 60
6
50
7
8 40
9 30
Other women
10
20 Women P/T
1
Women F/T
2 10
Men
3 0
4 1961 1975 1985 1995
5 Figure 6.5 Time spent on shopping and domestic travel. Minutes per
6 person per day.
7 Source: Jonathan Gershuny.17
8
91111
20111 There are two major caveats to make about this, however.
1 First, note from Figure 6.4 that the proportion of time currently
2 spent neither at home nor at work is only 15 per cent of waking
3 hours. Despite the increase in time spent on out of the home
4 leisure and related activities, the largest part of people’s lives are
5 still spent in their house or apartment. This suggests to me that a
6 lot of digital entertainment consumption, product information
7 gathering and purchasing will still take place at home. Second,
8 because people have the technological capability of doing some-
9 thing does not mean they will inevitably embrace it. The offer of
30 being able to receive information or carry out a transaction, for
1 instance, in a different place will only be taken up if it offers some
2 benefits to the consumer. It is the interaction between the tech-
3 nology and people and their needs that will define the success of
4111 any initiative.
140 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 easier for one consumer to tell another or a whole group of others
2 that a product is a ‘must buy’ or a ‘must avoid’.
3 Second, these new communications channels provide advocacy
4 groups an easy outlet for their campaigns. This can vary from
5 the anti-capitalist or anti-advertising ‘culture jammers’18 to the
6 free market fuel price activists who mounted an e-mail campaign
7 against fuel taxes in the United States and Europe in the summer
8 of 2000.
9 All this not only has some direct impact on how companies
10 need to operate and behave, as I outline below, but it also inher-
1 ently increases the chances of volatile behaviour as I discuss in a
2 later chapter. More connections and more communications mean
3 good and bad news can travel further and faster than it has ever
4 done before.
5
6
7 RESPONDING TO THE TECHNOLOGICAL
8 REVOLUTION
91111
20111 The implications of this quickening pace of change, the new land-
1 scape of time and space and the increase of connectivity and
2 communications are profound.
3 At a more mundane level, it raises some important operational
4 issues. For instance, as people communicate more via electronic
5 media, so they leave a trail of information about themselves.
6 This might be unbeknown to them, as their web site visits are
7 tracked for example, or even when information is consciously pro-
8 vided on registration or application forms. All this will increase the
9 importance of data protection as a consumer concern.Those com-
30 panies that abuse the information provided to them by consumers
1 are unlikely to be forgiven, something that a number of proponents
2 of new media marketing sometimes forget. (The so-called ‘one-to-
3 one’ marketing, for instance, only works if a company has sufficient
4111 information about consumers to properly target offers at them.
142 CITIZEN BRANDS
T
6
7
8
91111 he trends that I have been discussing in the last two
20111 chapters – growing affluence for the many, globalization and the
1 technological revolution – are leading to a number of important
2 developments beyond those I have already outlined. But three –
3 the explosion of choice, a reappraisal of authority and trust and
4 attitudes towards companies – are specially relevant for the way
5 companies themselves operate. The next few chapters are devoted
6 to these themes beginning, in this one, with the issue of choice.
7 Increased choice for consumers is clearly a relevant matter for
8 companies as it reflects two important trends in markets – one to
9 do with demand, the other with supply – which I have already
30 discussed. In terms of demand, there is clearly a growing frag-
1 mentation of tastes as affluence rises, discretionary income increases
2 and consumers become more cosmopolitan in their outlook and
3 confident in their own individual choices. There are fewer
4111 economic, social and institutional constraints to what people can
146 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 and cannot do; fewer peer group or value-based barriers to choice.
2 On the supply side, the inevitable outcome of globalization and
3 deregulation has been more open and competitive markets, often
4 leading to a greater range of goods and services available to
5 consumers. Some have argued that globalization can reduce choice
6 as an ever smaller number of large (multinational) companies push
7 a standardized (and often Americanized) offer into previously
8 diverse markets. While there is something in this argument, in my
9 view the net effect of globalization has been to increase choice.
10 Just look at the range of goods that are available from around the
1 world in British or American or French supermarkets that previ-
2 ously have not been there. As I show later, this is not restricted
3 to supermarkets. In a range of areas, there are more products and
4 services to meet a broader range of consumer tastes and needs
5 than ever before.
6 But why is increasing consumer choice relevant to the concept
7 of citizen brands? It is because it raises a number of questions that
8 are critical to branding itself.What happens to branding in a world
9 of greater choice? How does a company or product differentiate
20111 itself? Is increasing promiscuity inevitable?
1 I will come back to these questions but first I want to consider
2 the degree of choice and the different areas of people’s lives where
3 it is most noticeable.
4
5
6 EXPLOSION OF CHOICE?
7
8 I have already mentioned the increased choice in grocery stores
9 and it is perhaps the clearest area where the range of products
30 available to consumers has grown. As local shops have closed in
1 favour of first supermarkets, then superstores and finally hyper-
2 markets, so, inevitably, the array of produce available to people on
3111 their regular shopping trips has increased. Some may bemoan the
closure of local stores, catering to local needs and with personal-
COPING WITH CHOICE 147
1111 world, but it seems that consumers welcome the choice too. The
2 individualization of consumption means that products are not
3 bought for the family, but for individual members within it. This
4 complicates the shopping process, as one middle-aged female
5 shopper noted in some research conducted for British retail bank
6 Abbey National:
7
8 I have to get different sorts of cereal for everyone, different sorts of
shampoo, different sorts of coffee.2
9
10 Consumer research reveals that the average British household
1 now has six different types of cleaning products, three different types
2 of shampoo and three different breakfast cereals, with a general ten-
3 dency for younger people to have a greater range of these products
4 than older people3 (Figure 7.2). In part this reflects the fact that
5 people expect to have their own choices in a number of areas, but
6 it also demonstrates how products themselves are moving away from
7 the general purpose to the more specific. There are now different
8
9
20111 Mean number
1 of items
8 Breakfast cereals Shampoos Household cleaning products
2
7
3
6
4
5 5
6 4
7 3
8 2
9 1
30 0
1 18–25 26–35 36–45 46–55 56–65 66+
1111 types of hair care products for different occasions. In terms of house-
2 hold cleaning there are different formulations for different purposes:
3 creams, mousses, wipes and sprays; for use on floors, windows,
4 bathrooms, toilets, kitchens, ovens (and, of course, in a range of
5 scents and finishes).
6 Another interviewee in the Abbey National research – a
7 woman in her 70s – summed up how much things have changed
8 over the last fifty-odd years:
9
In my day, we just had roast on Sunday, rissoles on Monday, a shep-
10
herds pie or something on Tuesday, fish on Fridays – every day you
1 knew what you were going to eat.You didn’t eat things like chicken
2 – that was a luxury, there was less choice.4
3
4 This is another example of the benefits of prosperity that we
5 sometimes fail to realize. People now have much more choice
6 about what to eat, about what to drink and about what personal
7 care products to use, for example. Of course, they can also choose
8 to have someone else prepare their food for them. The home
91111 meal replacement market (those chilled, ready to cook prepara-
20111 tions that I referred to earlier) is now worth £200 million in
1 Britain5 and is growing rapidly; market research company A. C.
2 Nielsen expects it to be worth £600 million by 2003. Spending
3 on meals bought away from home has risen from 11 per cent of
4 UK food expenditure in 1968 to 24 per cent in 1998. In the
5 United States, the ready meal/take-away market is currently worth
6 a staggering £44 billion.6
7 Another example of the impact of a more connoisseur atti-
8 tude towards food and drink and the implications for choice is
9 that of the new breed of coffee shops that have sprung up. In a
30 local one near my office there are a number of different styles of
1 coffee (ranging from espresso, through macchiato, to latte and
2 cappuchino), three different types of milk (normal, semi-skimmed
3 and skimmed), the option of brown or white sugar or sweetener
4111 or none at all and a choice for most styles of three different cup
150 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 sizes. When you add in the options for different toppings and
2 flavourings, of decaffeinated or not, and whether you want extra
3 cream there are over 6000 different permutations from which one
4 can choose. If you tried one a day for every day, it would take
5 over sixteen years to try them all. It is no wonder that I need a
6 written note of different colleagues’ choices when I do the coffee
7 run – the orders are too varied and too complex to memorize!
8 But it is not just in grocery or multiple retail stores or even coffee
9 shops that consumers have experienced an explosion of choice.The
10 same has been happening in a range of service sectors too ranging
1 from media to telecommunications to energy suppliers.
2 Watching television – the activity that we spend so much time
3 on that it dwarfs any other leisure pursuit – is being affected by
4 the explosion of choice. In Britain there are now around 160
5 channels to choose from if you subscribe to Sky’s digital service.
6 Twenty years ago there were only three (Figure 7.3) – choosing
7 which programme to watch has become more complex. The
8 same is happening with other media. There are now nearly 250
9 commercial radio stations compared to three in 1973 (Figure 7.4).
20111
1
180
2
160
3
140
4
120
5
100
6 80
7 60
8 40
9 20
30 0
1 1923 1952 1964 1982 1994 1999
1111 Licences at end of year AM and FM frequencies licensed together AM and FM licensed separately
250 as one IBA contract – ‘simulcasting’ of by Radio Authority
2 one station on both AM and FM
3 200
4
5 150
6 100
7
8 50
9
0
10
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Jun. 99
1
2
Figure 7.4 Growth in commercial radio stations. Independent local
3 licences on air since launch.
4 Source: 1974–1990: IBA Archive; 1991–present: Radio Authority.
5
6
7 The number of consumer magazine titles continues to grow. And
8 then there is the new media. With the number of web sites having
91111 grown exponentially in recent years it is becoming increasingly
20111 difficult to find your way around the world wide web.
1 Telecommunications is another sector where choice is grow-
2 ing. In Britain there is a choice of at least three suppliers in the
3 fixed-line market and four mobile operators. But, it is in the mobile
4 market when you mix the choice of operator, with the choice of
5 phone manufacturer and then the different payment methods that
6 the decision becomes complex. The different types of tariff offered
7 by the high street phone shop Carphone Warehouse has grown
8 rapidly over the last few years (Figure 7.5).
9 Privatization in Britain has opened up not only the fixed line
30 telecommunications market to competition and choice but other
1 utility services too. During the 1990s gas and electricity were
2 privatized and under a regime that encouraged competition in the
3 market. The result has been yet more choice for consumers – and
4111 some have clearly been quite confused by it.
152 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 45
2 40
3 35
4 30
5 25
6 20
15
7
10
8
5
9
0
10 1992 1993 1996 1999
1
Figure 7.5 Growing complexity in the mobile phone market. Number
2 of different tariffs available from the Carphone Warehouse.
3 Source: Carphone Warehouse, reported in Complicated Lives, Abbey National/
4 Future Foundation.
5
6 Taken together, these government initiatives to provide choice
7 for consumers in the utilities market and to promote rivalry
8 between operators has had a major impact. In 1980, British con-
9 sumers had no choice at all in the four utility areas of gas,
20111 electricity, water and telecommunications.There was just one oper-
1 ator in each. Currently, there are 16 electricity suppliers, 22
2 companies providing gas, and at least seven telecommunication
3 operators (if you include the mobile companies).7 As a result of
4 this, whereas consumers had, in 1980, no choice of utility suppliers
5 there are now nearly 2500 permutations across the three areas.
6 And it is likely to get worse. Although currently only large volume
7 water users (those who use over 100 megalitres per year) can
8 choose between different suppliers, the introduction of consumer
9 choice of water supplier is likely within the next few years adding
30 greatly to the permutations across all the utilities. The temptation
1 for some consumers to buy all four services from just one supplier
2 must be strong.
3111 If there is almost too much choice now, technological devel-
opments are likely to exacerbate the problem. The Internet allows
COPING WITH CHOICE 153
1111 specialist outlets who cannot justify high street overheads a chance
2 to market to a broader audience without incurring crippling costs.
3 Equally, without the physical constraints of a retail outlet, a much
4 wider range of stock can be offered as Amazon has shown for
5 books and CDs. This is true for exisiting retailers as well as new
6 Internet start-ups like Amazon. British multiple retailer Woolworths
7 carries many more lines in its ‘virtual’ site on the interactive Open
8 service than even its biggest stores can provide. And then there
9 are the search engines and intelligent ‘bots’ that can look across
10 the web by category, brand name, product specification and/or
1 price to provide an almost unlimited selection of goods.
2
3
4 D O P E O P L E WA N T C H O I C E ?
5
6 This all raises the question of whether consumers really want so
7 much choice. Here, the evidence is far from conclusive. At a broad
8 level, there is no suggestion that people are getting more concerned
91111 about the complexity of life in general. For example, research by
20111 the Future Foundation8 shows that the proportion of the popu-
1 lation agreeing to the statement ‘I don’t mind living with the
2 increasing complexity of life’ has, at just above 40 per cent, changed
3 little between 1983 and 2000. The only real difference has been
4 a small increase in acceptance for those aged under 35, with around
5 50 per cent now agreeing with this view. So, if anything, rather
6 than being concerned about living in a more complex world,
7 society is coming to expect it as a fact of life.
8 But, choice in consumer markets is only one aspect of
9 increasing complexity and it might be one that people are, in fact,
30 less happy about. Equally, the fact that people accept complexity
1 does not mean that they actively enjoy it, nor that they would
2 not welcome help in solving some of the problems it brings. So
3 an acceptance of complexity does not necessarily equate to a desire
4111 for the huge expansion of choice that I have outlined above.
154 CITIZEN BRANDS
3 25
4
20
5
6 15
7 10
8 5
9
0
10 Consumer’s preferred Consumer’s perception Actual number of
1 number of suppliers of the number of potential suppliers for
to choose from suppliers the average consumer
2
3 Figure 7.7 Actual, perceived and preferred number of energy suppliers.
How many suppliers consumers would prefer to have, how many they
4 think there are and how many there actually are.
5 Source: nPower/OFGEM/Future Foundation.
6
7
8 This certainly suggests that consumers currently have more
91111 choice than they feel they want.Yet against that, I wonder whether
20111 people would really be happy to go back to the days when there
1 was less to choose from. In the Abbey National research quoted
2 above, a grandmother described the limited range of clothes avail-
3 able to her:
4
In my wardrobe, I had my everyday clothes, skirts, sweaters and
5 blouses, and my Sunday clothes, one coat, two pairs of shoes and a
6 best dress.10
7
8 In the 1950s she had a small selection of clothes for everyday
9 wear, only two pairs of shoes and one overcoat plus, of course,
30 one smart set of clothes for Sunday. It was quite clear she felt her
1 granddaughter was lucky, and privileged, to have the choice she
2 had. But the granddaughter viewed things differently. For her:
3 I have so many clothes, I’ve got nowhere to put them . . . but I’ve
4111 still got nothing to wear!11
156 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 to deal with it. At one extreme, some people clearly use price as
2 a selection tool.
3
4 I shop in the supermarket on Monday, the lady goes around with
the machine marking everything down and I walk behind her
5
picking up the bargains.13
6
7 Where this is the result of poverty, it is not really a strategy
8 for choice – the individual probably does not have much discre-
9 tion in the first place. But, there is some anecdotal evidence that
10 even those not weighed down by poverty, indeed even some people
1 who are really quite well-off, use price as a selection tool – partic-
2 ularly in areas where they have little intrinsic interest. But beyond
3 price, Figure 7.8 shows the other major options open to people
4 faced with the problem of choice.
5 The first strategy – and again this applies particularly to those
6 areas of least interest – is to relax the search and selection criteria
7
8 Faced with too much choice
91111
20111 What strategies do
consumers adopt?
1
2
3
4
Brands as Values/
5 Independent Relax search
choice ethical Price
advisers criteria
6 managers concerns
7
8
9
30 Depends on
1 Profit-making Not for profit interest in
category
2
3 Figure 7.8 Strategies for coping with choice. Schematic representation.
4111 Source: Michael Willmott.
158 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 and services would best suit their needs. But, this could develop
2 in other areas too. Examples would be holidays (where it does
3 exist in a fashion with travel agents but, to my mind, is currently
4 very poorly executed in most cases), electrical appliances, com-
5 puting or home décor (where there is already some activity in
6 this area with, apparently, a growth in interior design consultants).
7 There has been much talk recently, as well, of personal shoppers
8 who will buy clothes, ornaments and even Christmas gifts for the
9 (presumably) money rich and (presumably) time poor.
10 So, despite all the talk of disintermediation, this is why we
1 might in fact see an increase in intermediation – others who help
2 us navigate the plethora of choice we face in the modern world.
3 These advisers also include the media: magazines, newspapers
4 and television programmes with their own ‘named’ experts who
5 will recommend this product or that service. And increasingly, of
6 course, new media channels as well. Also, not all of these indepen-
7 dent advisers will be commercial. Non-profit consumer organiza-
8 tions with a tradition of helping their subscribers and readers
9 choose the best and safest in a given field should be well placed to
20111 take advantage of the explosion of choice. Consumer Reports in
1 America, Que Choisir in France or Which? in Britain all have many
2 years’ experience of providing independent consumer advice.
3
4
5 BRANDS AS CHOICE MANAGERS
6
7 But in some markets perhaps the most important ‘choice manager’
8 for many future consumers will be brands. This may seem a
9 strange assertion given the increasing cynicism towards companies
30 that I discuss later and the decrease in loyalty that I have already
1 alluded to in this chapter. Yet, the fact remains that brands can
2 provide a very efficient shortcut for people who have neither the
3111 time nor the energy to devote much effort to choosing products
and services. This has always been an important role for brands
COPING WITH CHOICE 161
O
8
91111
20111
1 n Monday 24 July 2000 tens of thousands of New
2 Yorkers were looking forward to attending a New York
3 Philharmonic concert in Central Park. Little did they know that
4 they were about to be disappointed.The stage was built, the weather
5 was fine and the orchestra was ready to play but, at short notice,
6 the evening concert had to be postponed. It eventually took place
7 two days later on Wednesday.
8 The reason for the postponement was mosquitoes. Or more
9 correctly, it was not the mosquitoes as such (the species concerned,
30 Culex pipiens, is the most common mosquito in New York City
1 during the summer) but what they might be carrying – the deadly
2 West Nile virus. The virus had apparently returned, creating alarm
3 among New Yorkers, as it had done the year before when seven
4111 people had died from the disease.
166 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 Not only was this an ideal opportunity for the mayor to
2 demonstrate his dynamic and tough credentials but also one where
3 he could show his compassion and concern for his people’s well-
4 being. Politically, therefore, this was almost certainly a good move.
5 But was it a rational decision?
6 A day or so later, I saw the story about the potentially deadly
7 brain disease on television news in Britain. Since I was about to
8 travel with my family to New York I was naturally concerned
9 about the possible dangers of West Nile-carrying mosquitoes. So
10 I decided to do some research into the subject. In these days of
1 the Internet this was not difficult and within a few minutes I was
2 starting to form a different view of the situation.
3 The Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory – a specialist
4 unit at the University of Florida – told me some of the history
5 of the West Nile virus. It is closely related to St Louis encephalitis
6 a mosquito-borne virus that has been around in the United States
7 for many years with epidemics occurring in Florida in 1959, 1961,
8 1962, 1977 and 1990. This was not making me feel any better.
91111 After stopping off in New York for a few days, we were flying
20111 down to Florida for a month. If West Nile did not get us in New
1 York, perhaps St Louis encephalitis would get us in Florida.
2 I read on with the history. The first reported epidemics of
3 West Nile were in the 1950s in Israel. Subsequent epidemics
4 occurred in the Rhône delta in France in 1962, 1963 and 1964,
5 South Africa in 1974, 1983 and 1984 and in Romania in 1996
6 and 1997. I had been in southern France in 1962 as a child and
7 travelled through the Rhône delta but until now I had been bliss-
8 fully unaware of the epidemic (as too had my parents). And, I’d
9 subsequently been or stayed in the Rhône delta on numerous
30 occasions since. If it was so dangerous why had I not been warned
1 of this before? Why were people not worried about going to
2 South Africa or Romania? Why had my travel agent not warned
3 me about St Louis encephalitis when he knew I was going to
4111 Florida? Perhaps it was not as dangerous a disease as it seemed.
168 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 and outlying suburbs) was not a rational response. But, at the same
2 time, I accept that Mayor Giuliani faced a difficult choice. He would
3 be attacked for spraying (as it was far from clear that it was neces-
4 sary) and he would be attacked if he did not spray for not taking
5 sufficient caution. I think most politicians would have taken the
6 same decision as Giuliani. As I said before, it appeared to be a
7 positive, responsive and concerned approach. To have not sprayed
8 would have been politically riskier – Giuliani took the maybe not
9 so rational, but certainly the more precautionary approach.
10 Why is this relevant to the concept of citizen brands? It may
1 not be immediately obvious but it is, in fact, potentially very
2 important. This is because it raises questions about citizens’ trust
3 in institutions, how rational consumers really are and the degree
4 of volatility that might be experienced in consumer markets and
5 political arenas in the future.To explain why, our story comes back
6 across the Atlantic to England.
7
8
9 W E L C O M E T O T H E P R E C A U T I O N A RY
20111 PRINCIPLE
1
2 In mid-July 2000 a conference took place at the Royal Institution
3 in London, England. Entitled The Precautionary Principle its aim was
4 to discuss the seeming increasing nervousness of society about
5 scientific development, innovation and new ways of doing things.
6 The idea of the precautionary principle has been promoted by
7 environmentalists and conservationists in particular and it argues
8 that unless we can prove that something – a new drug, a new
9 scientific procedure, a new invention – is safe, then we should
30 treat that development with extreme caution. Indeed, in its extreme
1 it argues that we should reject any new development until it is
2 proved to be safe. The principle has increasingly been incorpo-
3111 rated into international law and is recognized by bodies like the
United Nations and the European Commission.7
S U R V I V I N G A C U LT U R E O F F E A R 171
1111 or fauna. Against this, there are some very real potential benefits
2 from GMOs like the reduced use of toxic pesticides or the devel-
3 opment of new strains of food products that could dramatically help
4 hunger and disease in the third world. The rational, scientific
5 response to this is controlled tests to assess the potential impacts but
6 this is rejected by conservationists who, applying the precautionary
7 principle, have gone to great lengths to stop all trials.10
8 More understandable in my view are concerns about the power
9 that genetic technology might provide to multinational companies.
10 Monsanto, for example, is accused of deliberately developing
1 ‘terminator genes’ so that farmers have to buy new seeds from
2 the company each year. In this way, it is suggested, Monsanto has,
3 effectively, complete control over the market. Although Monsanto
4 would of course deny this and some people suggest that the
5 company is, in fact ‘a good corporate citizen’,11 for a variety of
6 reasons that I discuss in the next chapter there is increasing distrust
7 of multinational companies.
8 But, what I have trouble understanding or finding sympathy
91111 with is the attitude towards currently available genetically modi-
20111 fied foods themselves. To repeat, there is no evidence that, for
1 example, genetically modified soya is harmful to humans at all.
2 Yet, research by the Future Foundation shows that four out of ten
3 British consumers are ‘concerned about eating GMOs’ and six out
4 of ten agree that they ‘try not to buy foods containing geneti-
5 cally modified ingredients’ (Figure 8.1). Around 40 per cent of
6 people who say they are not concerned about consuming GM
7 foods would still not buy them – a clear demonstration of the
8 precautionary principle at work!
9 It is for this reason that all the major supermarkets withdrew
30 all genetically modified foods or ingredients from their shelves.
1 They had little choice given the strength of consumer opinion.
2 It is little wonder that the British government had to retreat
3 too, eventually taking an extremely cautious (if less than rational)
4111 attitude towards GMO field trials.
174 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 70%
2 60%
3 50%
4 40%
5 30%
6 20%
7 10%
8 0
9 I am concerned about I try not to buy food Proportion of those not
consuming, eating or products containing concerned about consuming
10 drinking genetically genetically modified genetically modified foods
modified foods ingredients but try not to buy them
1
2 Figure 8.1 Concerns about genetically modified foods. Proportion
3 agreeing.
4 Source: nVision/Future Foundation.
5
6
7 The most worrying outcome from all this is the impact that
8 it has had on perceptions not so much of science as of scientists.
9 Thus, the Future Foundation’s research shows that over the last
20111 20 years there has been no change in the majority view of the
1 benefits of science to progress (see Figure 8.2). Even in the year
2 2000, in the midst of the genetic engineering furore, the medical
3 potential of that specific technology was acknowledged (Figure
4 8.3). But, as the chart also shows, many more people agree than
5 disagree that ‘you can’t trust scientists’ in this particular field of
6 science.
7 We can now see what might be going on in people’s minds:
8 ‘We hear there is no evidence that GMOs are damaging to your
9 health, but who produces this evidence? Scientists, and we do not
30 trust them. So we do not believe their tests – maybe GMOs do
1 damage your health. Let us be precautionary and not eat geneti-
2 cally modified foods.’ Put like this, it seems a rational reaction but
3111 ultimately it is not – unless, of course, you believe that the scien-
tists really are not telling the truth.
S U R V I V I N G A C U LT U R E O F F E A R 175
1111 80%
2 70%
3
60%
4
5 50%
6 40%
7
30%
8
9 20%
10 10%
1
0%
2 1980 1983 1986 2000
3 Total
4 Figure 8.2 Science is still seen as the best hope for progress. Proportion
5 agreeing that ‘scientific breakthroughs are our main hope for a better life’.
6 Source: nVision/Future Foundation.
7
8 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
91111
20111 Genetic engineering
1 offers the best hope
of curing some
2 serious diseases
3 Agree
4 Disagree
5
We can’t trust what
6 scientists say about
genetic engineering
7
8
9
30 Figure 8.3 Lack of trust in science and genetic engineering. Proportion
agreeing/disagreeing with statements – June 2000.
1
Source: Future Foundation.
2
3
4111
176 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 Part of the problem here, it seems to me, is not so much scien-
2 tists but their paymasters. In any discussion of the subject of
3 genetically modified organisms ultimately the issue arises as to
4 who has funded the research.The strong implication is that corpo-
5 rately funded research is not completely independent and objective.
6 It is not so much science that people distrust as scientists who
7 work for large multinational companies. I return to this point later.
8
9
10 THE DANGERS OF MOBILE PHONES
1
2 The second example is mobile phones. In May 2000 the British
3 government-backed Stewart Committee reported on its analysis of
4 the potential threats to human health from the use of mobile
5 phones. The committee found no evidence of any harmful effects
6 but recommended that phones and transmission masts should be
7 handled with caution and made a number of recommendations.
8 Here, now, were not environmentalists or individual consumers
9 applying the precautionary principle, but a government-backed
20111 committee of experts. The Financial Times brilliantly highlighted
1 the potential damage to rational analysis. It is worth quoting most
2 of its leader on the subject:
3
There is no evidence that eating strawberries in moderate doses is
4
hazardous. But anti-strawberry lobbyists claim they can cause
5 headaches, loss of memory and cancer. Studies do not support this
6 but they do show interactions with the body’s chemistry. On the
7 precautionary principle, therefore, children should not eat strawber-
8 ries unless absolutely necessary, and never with cream.
9 Substitute ‘mobile telephones’, and this gives the general drift of
30 yesterday’s report by a committee of experts on the dangers of phon-
ing on the move. Because there is much ignorance about the hazards
1
of radiation, the report’s ambivalence will spread unnecessary confu-
2 sion.The National Radiological Protection Board has said simply that
3111 mobile phones are safe. The report criticises the board for insensitiv-
ity, but fails to offer good evidence to challenge its conclusion.
S U R V I V I N G A C U LT U R E O F F E A R 177
1111 Several simple points emerge. First, the radio waves transmitted
2 by mobile telephones have thousands of times less energy than
3 needed to create harmful ionisation effects, such as those of X-rays.
Second, the power of radiation from mobiles is too low to raise the
4
temperature of the brain by more than its normal fluctuation. Other
5 forms of damage are speculative.
6 Third, when telephones are close to a base station they auto-
7 matically reduce output, perhaps to a thousandth of full power.
8 Fourth, the heating effect of radiation emitted by base stations is
9 5000 times smaller than that from mobile phones.
It therefore seems perverse to recommend that the erection of
10
base stations should be restricted by tighter planning controls. This
1 change would inhibit competition and require mobiles to transmit
2 at higher power than would otherwise be necessary.
3 The possibility of danger to children is no more than a possi-
4 bility, with no firm evidence to support it. Even if proved, it would
5 probably be far less than the danger from eating sweets or going to
6 a disco.
The report makes some sensible, if obvious, conclusions, such
7
as the need for more research, for the monitoring of transmission
8 equipment and for clearer public information. But it has gone over
91111 the top in adopting the precautionary principle. This is too often
20111 used to justify inchoate fears of the unknown, and should be treated
1 with the greatest caution by scientists. In responding, the govern-
2 ment should stick to the facts and apply the strawberry test to
everything else.12
3
4
5 Quite likely the committee was taking a political view. It has
6 now become too dangerous to give new innovations a completely
7 clean bill of health. By being cautious, you not only are less likely
8 to get a media or pressure group grilling but are also covered if
9 something ever did prove to be wrong. Here, the Stewart Com-
30 mittee was acting in a similar way to Mayor Giuliani in New
1 York.
2
3
4111
178 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 T H E P O L I T I C I Z AT I O N O F S C I E N C E
2
3 Some supporters of the precautionary principle welcome this
4 politicization of science. Brian Wynn, Professor of science studies
5 at Lancaster University and adviser to the British government has
6 argued that political and social concerns should be explicitly
7 considered when assessing scientific evidence.13 But this is surely
8 exposed for what it is: a means of legitimizing the rejection of
9 rational and objective analysis for political gain.
10 At the Future Foundation we ran an opinion poll just after
1 the Stewart Committee report was published. Not surprisingly,
2 perhaps, we found the precautionary principle had been embraced
3 wholeheartedly by the British public. On the specific issue of
4 mobile phones, nearly three-quarters agreed that ‘because of the
5 possible health effects mobile phones should carry a government
6 health warning’ with, amazingly, two-thirds of current mobile
7 phone users agreeing.Three-quarters of the respondents also agreed
8 with the more general statement ‘the government has a responsi-
9
20111
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
1
2
3 The government has a responsibility to
warn people of the possible dangers in
4 using new technology even when there is
no scientific evidence that it is harmful
5
Agree
6
Disagree
7
8 Because of the possible health effects
mobile phones should carry a government
9 health warning
30
1
2 Figure 8.4 Welcome to the precautionary principle. Proportion of the
3111 population agreeing that . . .
Source: Future Foundation.
S U R V I V I N G A C U LT U R E O F F E A R 179
1111 bility to warn people of the possible dangers in using new tech-
2 nology even when there is no scientific evidence that it is harmful’
3 (Figure 8.4). On the face of it, this is a ludicrous suggestion and
4 a potentially costly one for companies too. Every new innovation
5 or technology (why not set-top decoders for digital TV, for
6 example) would have to carry an unspecified health warning.
7 I’m not saying that GMOs have been proven to be safe or
8 that new GMOs in the future might not pose some threats. We
9 need to remain vigilant and continue objective and rigorous test-
10 ing. It might possibly be true that at some point in the future
1 mobile phones are proved to be unsafe.
2
3
4 T I M E T O S AY G O O D B Y E T O T H E
5 P R E C A U T I O N A RY P R I N C I P L E ?
6
7 But, at this point in time and on the balance of evidence, I am
8 happy to eat genetically modified soya and use my mobile phone
91111 (and let my children use it too). A new panic might arise and I
20111 might, as I did with the New York West Nile virus, have to research
1 the subject. But my decision on that issue will be based on a
2 balancing of the evidence available. To do otherwise would leave
3 me hostage to irrational fears and concerns – perhaps those dreamt
4 up by others in pursuit of their political goals. It would leave me
5 hostage to a backward-looking, anti-innovation, no-change view
6 of the world. Ultimately, the precautionary principle is a desper-
7 ately anti-progressive tool since it can be used to argue against
8 any new development without the need for any real evidence or
9 proof. As the Social Issues Research Centre warns:
30
The narrow philosophy which surrounds the precautionary principle
1 is fundamentally conservative in both political and literal sense.14
2
3 I agree with Freeman Dyson on this who, in his book Imag-
4111 ined Worlds, spells out the dangers of both blinkered, free market
180 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 other lobbyists’ aims. But the side effects of it: a reduction in faith
2 in science; a rejection of a rational approach to analysing available
3 evidence; and an increase in hysteria and paranoia are ones that
4 are very important for society and companies.
5
6
7 W E L C O M E T O A C U LT U R E O F F E A R
8
9 The New York incident and the development of the ‘precaution-
10 ary principle’ are symptomatic of the rise of what Kent University
1 sociologist Frank Furedi calls the Culture of Fear.18 If one paradox
2 of a world of peace and plenty is the ‘burden’ of choice that
3 increased affluence enables and the complications this adds to
4 people’s lives (as I discussed in the previous chapter) another is
5 people’s assessment of risk. It seems that despite being richer and
6 healthier, there are heightened concerns about a range of life issues,
7 be it health, the environment, drugs or crime. Safety, as Furedi points
8 out in his 1997 book on the subject, became ‘the fundamental value
91111 of the 1990s’. The paradox is that by most measures we live in a
20111 safer world.
1
Most serious contributors have to accept that in real terms people
2
live longer than before, and that they are more healthy and better
3 off than in previous times.19
4
5 Furedi notes that in answer to a Gallup question about whether
6 people need to take special care in what they eat (for health
7 reasons) the proportion agreeing doubled between 1947 and 1996.
8 Despite people’s health and diet improving, more are worried
9 about what they do eat. This worry about our health is also
30 demonstrated by data that show that the proportion of people in
1 Britain self-reporting longstanding illnesses increased from 21 per
2 cent in 1972 to 35 per cent in 1996.20
3 People are more concerned about their children too. The age
4111 at which people let their children play in the street or walk to
182 CITIZEN BRANDS
6 7
7
8 6
9 5
10 66+ 55–65 46–55 36–45 26–35 18–25
1 Current age of respondent
6 180
7
160
8
9 140
10 120
1
100
2 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
3
Figure 8.6 Crime rates in Britain. Index of crimes reported to, and
4 recorded by, the police and those identified by victims in the British
5 Crime Survey.
6 Source: British Crime Survey, Home Office.
7
8 of Americans think they were soaring? How did it come about that
91111 by mid-decade 62 per cent of us described ourselves as ‘truly
desperate’ about crime – almost twice as many as in the late 1980s,
20111
when crime rates were higher? . . .
1 In the late 1990s the number of drug users had decreased by
2 half compared to a decade earlier; almost two-thirds of high school
3 seniors had never used any illegal drugs, even marijuana. So why
4 did a majority of adults rank drug abuse as the greatest danger to
5 America’s youth? Why did nine out of ten believe the drug problem
6 is out of control, and only one in six believe the country was making
progress?
7
Give us a happy ending and we write a new disaster story.23
8
9 Barry Glassner goes through a long list of scares ranging from
30 road rage to ritual child abuse to violence in the workplace and
1 demonstrates that there is little real evidence to support any of them.
2 Glassner argues that three forces are stoking up people’s irra-
3 tional hysteria: politicians who win elections by heightening fears;
4111 advocacy groups that improve their fund raising capabilities by
184 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 exaggerating concerns; and the media, conscious that fear and
2 scaremongering sells. Although he doesn’t initially include them
3 in the list Glassner does later identify companies as a further agent
4 of the culture of fear. He quotes an example of a hospital in New
5 York that at the height of a scare about child psychiatric prob-
6 lems ran a TV advert that showed a teenage girl with a gun at
7 her head: ‘As the screen cut to the hospital’s name and phone
8 number, a gunshot rang out and parents were urged to call if they
9 worried about their own children.’
10 In a different way, a report from a British mutual retailer the
1 Co-op provides another example. Its Food Crimes24 report accused
2 big business of committing seven crimes: blackmail (‘the insidious
3 targeting of the public by global big business’), contamination,
4 grievous bodily harm, vandalism, cannibalism, pillage (‘the careless
5 exploitation of countries’) and fraud. While the Co-op was oper-
6 ating from the highest of principles – it really does want to improve
7 food and animal welfare standards – and had no specific desire to
8 increase a culture of fear, the effect was to increase concern about
9 a range of issues and the behaviour of multinational companies
20111 specifically.
1 And, as the New York Times put it in an article on 30 July
2 2000, an environment of scare and hysteria provides ample oppor-
3 tunities for making a noise.The article entitled ‘The Things People
4 Choose to Fear’ was prompted by the West Nile crisis and finished
5 with the following tale:
6 And some players just want a piece of the action. Howard
7 Rubenstein Associates, for example, the big New York public rela-
8 tions firm better known for representing high-gloss celebrities, began
9 calling reporters last week with a whispered tip about a new turn
30 in the virus story: a mosquito, infected with West Nile, that appar-
ently feeds during the day, had just been discovered by researchers
1
at Fordham University. The researchers themselves were a bit more
2 circumspect; they are not quite sure yet how common their new
3111 mosquito, Aedes japonicus, is, how well it transmits the virus, or
whether it even bites people.25
S U R V I V I N G A C U LT U R E O F F E A R 185
1111 Both Furedi’s and Glassner’s books are a rallying call for a return
2 to rationality (as is the argument against the precautionary princi-
3 ple) but I wonder whether this will happen. As Stuart Sutherland
4 showed in his book Irrationality:The Enemy Within,26 we are already
5 a pretty irrational society. How else can one explain the changes
6 that people make to their behaviour as a result of very low, or
7 effectively zero, risk exposure (many food, health and crime scares,
8 for example) and the increase in participation in high risk areas
9 like dangerous sports? And the combined force of politicians,
10 campaigners and the media is likely to mean we are going to stay
1 that way or even get worse.
2 In defence of people’s attitude to risk it is clear that an
3 important issue is the perceived control that people have over any
4 activity or event and the choices that are available to them. So,
5 driving in cars is more dangerous than travelling by plane or train,
6 yet the driver feels ultimately in control of events. With BSE or
7 genetically modified foods, part of the problem was not having a
8 choice – not knowing whether a food product contained genet-
91111 ically modified soya or whether the beef you were eating was
20111 from an infected herd. It is only when they have this choice and
1 this control that people may then weigh up the benefits that accrue
2 from an activity against the risk. They will use a mobile phone
3 even though they believe it is dangerous or go skiing in the know-
4 ledge that it is a dangerous sport.
5
6
7 C U LT U R E O F F E A R A N D C I T I Z E N
8 BRANDS
9
30 Why is the phenomenon of a ‘culture of fear’ important to the idea
1 of citizen brands? It is so for three reasons. First, a climate of fear
2 tends to reduce trust in a range of institutions. If there are scares,
3 claims and counter-claims it is difficult to know who to believe and
4111 who to trust.Worryingly, companies seem to fare particularly badly
186 CITIZEN BRANDS
I
7
8
91111
20111 n No Logo, Naomi Klein produced one of the most significant
1 business books of 2000. Its importance lies in the fact that she iden-
2 tified and articulated a disturbing trend for companies – an increase
3 in cynicism about businesses, and multinationals in particular, and
4 the way they operate in the global economy. Although, as I discuss
5 later I believe some of her analysis is misguided, the book’s huge
6 success reflects the fact that it clearly touched a nerve – there was
7 something in it that mirrored people’s own view of the world; their
8 fears and concerns.
9 Well written and beautifully presented, the book is a seriously
30 researched critique of global companies and their brands. Much
1 of Klein’s analysis is sound and, as I show later, some of my own
2 research supports the central thesis that consumers are becoming
3 more wary of business, its motives and its practices. But the tone
4111 is nothing less than revolutionary. Klein believes that corporations
190 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 and their marketing and branding strategies have only themselves
2 to blame:
3
4 By attempting to enclose our shared culture in sanitized and
controlled brand cocoons, these corporations have themselves created
5
the surge of opposition described in this book. By thirstily absorbing
6 social critiques and political movements as sources of brand
7 ‘meaning’, they have radicalized that opposition still further. By aban-
8 doning their traditional role as direct, secure employers to pursue
9 their branding dreams, they have lost the loyalty that once protected
10 them from citizen rage.1
1
Klein overtly sympathizes with activist organizations like
2
Reclaim the Streets and expects citizens and consumers to rise up
3
in protest:
4
5 a different agenda has taken hold, one that embraces globalization but
6 seeks to wrest it from the grasp of the multinationals. Ethical share-
7 holders, culture jammers, street reclaimers, McUnion organizers,
8 human-rights activists, school-logo fighters and Internet corporate
watchdogs are at the early stages of demanding a citizen-centered
9
alternative to the international rule of brands. That demand . . . is to
20111 build a resistance . . . that is as global, and as capable of co-ordinated
1 action, as the multinational corporations that it seeks to subvert.2
2
3 This is heady stuff, and together with the trendy catchphrases
4 – ‘brand bombing’, ‘cool hunters’, ‘oppression nostalgia’, ‘market
5 marsala’, are just some examples – explains, in part, the attraction
6 of the book to many readers.
7
8
9 BRANDS, GOVERNMENT AND
30 G L O B A L I Z AT I O N
1
2 Naomi Klein is not alone in her criticism of the role of business
3111 and its insidious involvement in everyday life. British journalist
George Monbiot’s book Captive State3 is another attack on modern
SO-SO LOGO 191
5 50%
6 40%
7 30%
8 20%
9 10%
30 0%
1 1996 2000
1111 new ones are required to take their place. Add in the unstoppable
2 force of globalization and who now is most powerful; who most
3 threatening? Enter multinational companies – the new villains, the
4 new bogeymen of our times.
5 Part of the problem, arguably, is the shear size of these corpo-
6 rations. Many multinationals now have a turnover that exceeds
7 those of some countries themselves. Of the world’s hundred largest
8 economies, fifty are corporations, while the turnover of the ten
9 biggest businesses is more than the total of that of the world’s
10 hundred smallest countries. Shell owns 400 million acres of land,
1 making it larger than 146 countries. The largest 500 companies
2 in the world – many of which are American – are now respon-
3 sible for over 40 per cent of global wealth and control two-thirds
4 of global trade. Fewer than ten transnational corporations control
5 virtually every aspect of the worldwide food chain.12
6 Inevitably, this raises some questions. If companies are so
7 powerful do we not need to worry about the mechanism for
8 controlling them? As Charles Handy has noted: ‘when corpora-
9 tions are bigger than nation states you have to ask who governs
20111 them, and for whom.’13 Anthony Giddens (Dean of the London
1 School of Economics) has made the same point:
2
3 I think for better or for worse you do have to see this as a busi-
ness civilisation. Most of us did not see the degree to which it
4
would become a business civilisation, because I think certainly a lot
5 of people in the centre and on the left underestimated the power
6 and the significance of markets. In this world, the corporations do
7 have a central role to play, alongside government, and they are, if
8 you like, a kind of secondary invisible global government.14
9
30 Invisible? Government? No wonder citizens are worried.
1
2
3111
SO-SO LOGO 197
1111 W H O H AT E S C O M PA N I E S ?
2
3 But, who is most worried about this development. Here, the
4 evidence, certainly from Britain, seems to go against Naomi Klein’s
5 supposition that it is young people who are leading the anti-
6 capitalist crusade.
7 For example, only just over half of 16–24 year olds think global
8 corporations need to be controlled or stopped compared to nearly
9 three-quarters of other adults (Figure 9.4).
10 I carried out an analysis of this question and the others about
1 multinationals to see what individual characteristic – age, social
2 grade, income, for example – was most associated with different
3 responses. Age emerged as the most important factor in explaining
4 difference with the young being the least likely to hold anti-
5 corporate views. To make the point, another example, Figure 9.5,
6
7
8 100% Multinationals have too much power –
they need to be stopped now
90%
91111 Multinationals need to be policed and controlled
80% more than they are at the moment
20111 70%
1 60%
2 50%
3 40%
4 30%
5 20%
10%
6
0%
7 16–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64 65+
8
Figure 9.4 Do multinationals have too much power? Some people
9 say that multinationals are too powerful nowadays – which one of these
30 statements comes closest to your own view? (Other statements offered
1 were: ‘Multinational companies are ultimately for the good – we need
to encourage their continued growth’ and ‘The power of multinational
2 companies is at about the right level – they should be left to them-
3 selves’.)
4111 Source: nVision/Future Foundation.
198 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 60%
2
50%
3
4 40%
5
30%
6
7 20%
8 10%
9
10 0%
16–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64 65+
1
2 Figure 9.5 Many do not trust multinationals. Proportion agreeing that
‘You can’t trust multinational companies nowadays’.
3
Source: nVision/Future Foundation.
4
5 shows that twice as many 45–54 year olds agree that you cannot
6 trust multinationals as do 16–24 year olds.
7 In order to understand these issues better, I carried out a cluster
8 analysis of the data – a statistical technique that groups people
9 together on the basis of their responses to different questions.
20111 The results suggest that there are five different groups of consumers
1 based mainly on two issues: whether globalization is seen as a good
2 development or not;15 and whether multinationals are seen in a
3 generally positive or negative light.16 The different segments are
4 illustrated in Figure 9.6. One group is pro globalization and pro
5 global corporations (top right-hand quadrant of the figure) while
6 another is pro globalization but more ambivalent about companies.
7 Both groups have a higher incidence of under 35s, and under 25s
8 in particular, in them. There are three segments that are less happy
9 with globalization. The first, in the lower right-hand section of
30 the figure, contains people who are generally rather positive about
1 multinationals but the other two might be described as the core
2 anti-globalization, anti-multinational brigade. Together they repre-
3111 sent a bit over a third of the population. They split, however, into
two distinct groups – those that are prepared to ‘demonstrate if a
SO-SO LOGO 199
1
2
16%
3
4
Figure 9.6 Globalization and multinationals – clusters of opinion.
5 Representation of different segments of the population based on responses
6 to a range of attitude questions.
7 Source: nVision/Future Foundation.
8
91111 large multinational company had done something wrong’ and those
20111 that are not.The radical activists – those that say they are happy to
1 demonstrate – represent around one in six of the population.
2 Importantly, the 16–24 year old age group are underrepresented in
3 both these segments. Interestingly, those aged 16–24 who are con-
4 tained in that radical, protesting, activist group represent just 1 per
5 cent of the population and 10 per cent of 16–24 year olds. It is
6 from this group that protesters at World Trade Organisation and
7 other similar meetings presumably come and from whom organi-
8 zations like Reclaim the Streets gain their members. They may be
9 highly vocal, visible and disruptive, but they currently represent only
30 a small minority of young people.
1 This analysis shows that, if anything it is the sixties genera-
2 tion – those who were born in the 1950s and the 1960s – who
3 are the most cynical about global corporations and the youth of
4111 today who are least so. Why should this be?
200 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 I believe there are two plausible explanations. First, the radi-
2 calism of the sixties generation clearly lives on. Research at the
3 Future Foundation shows that this generational cohort is carrying
4 through all of its liberal attitudes and anti-establishment inclina-
5 tions as it gets older. But, with the onset of ‘peace and plenty’
6 and many of the ‘battles’ for individual freedom of action and
7 expression won, there seems less need for subsequent generations
8 to ‘revolt’ in a similar way.
9 Second because of the increases in choice (see Chapter 7) and
10 the development of consumption-based individualism, new entrants
1 into markets – that is the young – find brands, and international
2 ones specially, a very useful mechanism for negotiating their way
3 through the morass of complexity that life now offers. More than
4 that, consumption and the purchase of brands can be an important
5 part of self-identity. As Laura Oswald puts it: ‘The subject of
6 consumption is nothing if not an actor in search of an identity’.17
7 Wendy Gordon and Ginny Valentine make the same point:
8
The 21st century consumer is post-modern to the core. She shifts
9
identities and uses a vast wardrobe of brands to create herself into
20111 whoever she wants to be.18
1
2 My own view is that this is particularly true of younger
3 consumers. But, as they get more experience in the consumption
4 process they become more confident – they still use brands but,
5 if you like, in a more cynical way. So, people grow into their
6 concern about multinational companies and their behaviour –
7 questioning companies is part of becoming middle-aged. This is
8 different from the ideologically-based anti-capitalism of the sixties
9 generation.The small group of young anti-capitalist agitators aside,
30 protest has become less of a generational phenomenon and more
1 of a life stage one.
2 Interestingly, this progression from youthful acceptance of, and
3111 indeed need for, brands followed by a growing cynicism matches
Klein’s account of her own life experience.
SO-SO LOGO 201
1111 S U RV I V I N G T H E C Y N I C A L C O N S U M E R
2
3 So, to recap on the analysis in this chapter, we see that consumers
4 are becoming more concerned about the behaviour of companies,
5 and multinationals in particular, and more cynical about their
6 intentions. But it is not so much young people as the middle-
7 aged and older consumers who most exhibit these attributes.
8 There is not much evidence of a large-scale anti-capitalist
9 movement as such but rather an increasing readiness on the part
10 of consumers to expect more of companies (as I have shown earlier
1 in this book) and a willingness to punish them if they do not.
2 This manifests itself in the unsurprisingly much higher proportion
3 of consumers who would boycott a company rather than demon-
4 strate against it (Figure 9.7). I am not saying people will not
5 demonstrate over political, economic or social issues but, if they
6 do, it is more likely to be on a single issue basis rather than a
7 revolt against the system as such. The result is likely to be more
8
91111
20111
1 70% Agree
2 60%
Disagree
3
50%
4
5 40%
6 30%
7 20%
8
10%
9
0
30 Would demonstrate if a large multinational Would not buy from a large multinational
1 company had done something wrong company that had done something wrong
A
6
7
8
91111 fter winning the British general election in May 1997,
20111 the Labour Party maintained a significant lead over its rivals, the
1 Conservatives, for the next three years. Nothing, it seemed, could
2 stop Labour being re-elected for a second term at the next elec-
3 tion expected in 2001. That was until September 2000 when its
4 poll ratings suddenly took a dive. A dispute about the price and
5 high rate of taxation on fuel brought Britain to a halt. Farmers
6 and road hauliers blockaded oil refineries stopping fuel being
7 distributed and within a week, 90 per cent of filling stations had
8 run dry, hospital medical procedures were being postponed and
9 businesses were warning that they would imminently have to shut
30 down operations until fuel supplies resumed.
1 The protest had begun with an Internet e-mail chain letter
2 campaign in June following a similar movement in the United
3 States. Soon after, the press picked it up and the populist tabloid
4111 the Sun ran a campaign calling for people not to visit petrol
206 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 60%
2
3 50%
4
5 40%
Labour
6 Conservative
7
30%
8
9
20%
10 Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec.
1 97 97 97 98 98 98 98 99 99 99 99 00 00 00 00
1111 within all this chaos there is, in fact, some order of sorts and
2 thanks to the growth of computing power (and thanks to Moore’s
3 Law – see Chapter 6) there is now the ability, if not to predict
4 the exact direction of the chaos, at least the potential scope of it.
5 Second, citizen brands offer the prospect of managing better the
6 inherent volatility in markets. Understanding this process and the
7 role of citizen brands in a world of butterfly consumers is what
8 this chapter is about.
9
10
1 THE EVIDENCE OF CHANGE
2
3 Beyond Britain’s petrol crisis, what other examples of this pheno-
4 menon are there?
5 First, are examples of technology products where network
6 effects (as outlined by Shapiro and Varian) have led to technically
7 superior products losing out to inferior ones. These include Sony’s
8 Betamax video recorder that failed in the marketplace despite
9 being technologically superior to the eventually triumphant
20111 VHS competitor standard. It also includes, as I have already noted,
1 Apple’s Macintosh computer that obtained market dominance in
2 the desktop PC market with its innovative graphical user inter-
3 face but lost out to the technically inferior ‘Wintel’ alliance of
4 Intel processors and Microsoft Windows software. More import-
5 antly, when Apple started to lose market share it did so at an
6 astonishing pace.7 Other examples include Steve Jobs NeXT work-
7 station and Digital’s Alpha microprocessor chip which were,
8 according to the Daily Telegraph, ‘dramatically superior to their
9 potential rivals’.8
30 Second, are fashion and related items. Malcolm Gladwell
1 describes the way Hush Puppies changed from being a ‘classic’ but
2 dying shoe brand to a hip fashion item in New York, all in the
3111 space of a very short time.9 He also describes how a book by
B U T T E R F LY C O N S U M E R S 211
1111 Rebecca Wells – Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood – having done
2 moderately well in 1996 suddenly saw exploding sales growth a
3 year later. Paul Ormerod in his book Butterfly Economics10 discusses
4 the processes by which one film stacked full of box office stars
5 bombs out, while another is a huge success.
6 The third category is where new products, or new service
7 delivery methods enter the market. Financial services currently
8 provide some good examples here. In the early 1990s direct sales
9 of motor insurance accounted for about 10 per cent of the total
10 UK market. Some commentators claimed it was a niche segment
1 and was unlikely to grow much further. Yet, direct channels now
2 account for a significant proportion of motor insurance sales and
3 other insurance is being affected too. By 1998 over two-thirds
4 of consumers had bought their last new insurance (home, car or
5 medical) via direct channels.11 The change in market share by dis-
6 tribution channel had taken place over a relatively short (in tradi-
7 tional terms) period of time. In 1998, one of Britain’s large and
8 established insurance companies, Prudential, launched an Internet
91111 banking offer – one of the first independent on-line banks. In less
20111 than two years it had over a million accounts and was challenging
1 for leadership in the on-line banking market.
2 Another obvious area where this phenomenon is noticeable is
3 when there is some catastrophe that hits a company.This might be
4 a physical incident like Exxon Valdez, when an oil tanker ran
5 aground in Prince William Sound in 1989, causing huge environ-
6 mental damage or when Coca Cola had a problem in its Belgium
7 bottling plant resulting in the contamination of some of its product.
8 Or, it could be the result of other actions or proposed actions. Shell,
9 intended to dump its Brent Spar oil exploration platform in deep
30 water but after a vigorous campaign by Greenpeace had to scrap
1 the plan. In all these cases, the companies were commercially
2 affected and the impact on them was very quick and almost impos-
3 sible to manage. Sometimes these ‘catastrophes’ can be self-imposed.
4111
212 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 In the 1980s Ratners was a successful and growing high street jew-
2 ellery retailer in the UK.Then Gerald Ratner, who ran his family’s
3 firm, made some now infamous comments12 during a public speech
4 about the quality of his company’s products and the business’s for-
5 tunes plummeted.
6 While it can be argued that in each of these instances special
7 circumstances were at play, it is all consistent with the idea that
8 consumer markets are becoming less stable, less predictable and
9 more prone to wild fluctuations in fortunes.
10
1
2 D E C R E A S I N G LY L O YA L , I N C R E A S I N G LY
3 MERCURIAL
4
5 Part of the problem, is that it seems that consumers are less loyal
6 than they were in the past. Although difficult to prove definitively,
7 research at Cranfield in the early 1990s suggested that shoppers
8 were more fickle than they used to be.13
9 This might seem strange at a time when companies are invest-
20111 ing more and more in loyalty programmes. But the vast majority
1 of consumers are experienced – having been born or raised in the
2 post-war consumer society. They are much richer too – with far
3 higher degrees of discretion in what they can and cannot buy.This
4 mix of experience and growing affluence (see Chapter 5) provides
5 consumers with the psychological and financial ability to change if
6 necessary – a factor further encouraged by the greater choice now
7 available to them. In fact, few consumers are inherently loyal in the
8 sense of having a deep degree of attachment to a company or brand.
9 As many as 50 per cent change their degree of loyalty over the
30 course of a year (see Figure 10.2) and most people are promiscu-
1 ous in at least some markets – fewer than a fifth nearly always buying
2 the same brand in the majority of markets they operate in.14
3111 Although many people may, in fact, tend to buy the same brand
B U T T E R F LY C O N S U M E R S 213
1111 learn from events. These new models can be based on an accep-
2 tance that behaviour is not fixed, but is, rather – as I pointed out
3 earlier – increasingly fickle thanks to increasing consumer experi-
4 ence, discretion and cynicism and the development of the network
5 economy. More network connections make for more interactions
6 and hence for more mercurial behaviour.
7 Paul Ormerod, in his book Butterfly Economics,15 brilliantly
8 demonstrates how such techniques can be applied to economic
9 analysis. The core of the book focuses on how the learning from
10 simulations of simple ant colonies can be applied highly success-
1 fully to social and economic situations. Ormerod argues that by
2 using these techniques we can understand and explain a variety
3 of outcomes that have consistently caused problems to classical
4 economic theory. But the techniques can equally be applied to
5 consumers and markets as Ormerod explains:
6
7 Within the computer, an artificial world is created, populated by
individual consumers. These individuals are given rules of behaviour
8
which specify the conditions under which they become more likely
9 to switch in and out of various products. Individuals need not be
20111 alike. All that is needed are some rules about how they behave.16
1
2 This new technique has been applied in a number of studies
3 that have been able to explain otherwise less than obvious out-
4 comes. Examples include the video recorder market I have already
5 mentioned,17 why financial markets are so volatile,18 the inherent
6 difficulty in predicting a film’s success,19 again as already mentioned,
7 and why the business cycle is so impossible to anticipate.20
8 Roger Lewin and Birute Regine in their acclaimed book The
9 Soul at Work21 show how complexity science can be applied to
30 the management and structure of organizations to improve under-
1 standing and performance.
2
3111
B U T T E R F LY C O N S U M E R S 215
9
20111
80
1
2
60
3
4
5
40
6
7
20
8
9
0
30
1 0 5 10 15 20
Time
2
3111 Figure 10.4 Old network – cumulative impact. Typical simulation.
Source: Future Foundation MathMatters.
B U T T E R F LY C O N S U M E R S 217
1111 are ‘seeded’ with the initial item of knowledge. It can be seen that
2 it grows slowly and steadily until after 20 time periods (it could
3 be days or weeks or months) over 50 per cent of the population
4 have the ‘news’. It should be noted that these simulations, as they
5 are dynamic, will produce different results each time they are run
6 but the figure represents a typical one for this situation.
7 But what happens if we increase the number of connections
8 – as has happened in the network society – or the distance of
9 the connections? The latter is important because now people are
10 less bounded to a particular locality and will have friends, family
1 and acquaintances who are more widely dispersed.
2 If we increase the number of connections by just 40 per cent
3 but still keep these connections local we can see the effect on the
4 spread of the ‘epidemic’. Although it is hard to measure, it seems
5 plausible that this sort of increase might match the increased
6
7
100
8
91111
80
20111
1
60
2
3
4
40
5
6
20
7
8
9
0
30 0 5 10 15 20
1 Time
1111 number of connections that have arisen over the last 20 years or
2 so as a result of changing social and work networks. If anything
3 it is an under-estimate. Figure 10.5 then shows the impact of this.
4 Just by increasing the number of contacts people have by 40 per
5 cent we get a dramatic quickening in the spread of the rumour,
6 recommendation or whatever. Now it takes only about 10 time
7 periods before it reaches 40 per cent of the population.
8 But, it is not just that people have more connections in the
9 network society, it is that they can also occur across great geograph-
10 ical distances – the radical transformation of time and space that
1 I discussed in Chapter 6. Of course, such connections did exist in
2 the past, but there are more of them now and news travels faster
3 between them (an e-mail is a bit quicker than sea mail). As with
4 biological epidemics which are known to spread much more
5 quickly around the world with the advent of more and faster
6 travel, so is the case with these word-of-mouth epidemics. It just
7 requires one electronic connection to set up a new ‘seed’ of
8 opinion on the other side of the world, which can then start
9 spreading there. So, if we add just a few connections to those
20111 shown in Figure 10.3 but ones which link geographically distant
1 points (like San Francisco to London) it has a big impact on the
2 spread of the information.
3 Figure 10.6 shows what happens with just 14 additional
4 connections – a very small number compared to the hundreds of
5 links between the original 250 sample. Just by adding those extra
6 few, but long, connections you get an even quicker spread of the
7 ‘epidemic’. Now it takes around seven time periods to reach 50
8 per cent of people. Whereas, increasing the number of local links
9 by 40 per cent had a major impact, adding under 1 per cent of
30 links, but making them long distance, has almost as dramatic an
1 effect. This explains why it is an increasingly volatile consumer
2 world but also provides some pointers on what to do about it.
3111
B U T T E R F LY C O N S U M E R S 219
1111
100
2
3
80
4
5
60
6
7
8
40
9
10
20
1
2
0
3
4 0 5 10 15 20
5 Time
6 Figure 10.6 Small world – faster and less predictable. Simulations with
7 different assumptions.
8 Source: Future Foundation MathMatters.
91111
20111
1 B U T T E R F LY C O N S U M E R S A N D C I T I Z E N
2 BRANDS
3
4 While the arrival of butterfly consumers and butterfly economics
5 poses real challenges for companies these new techniques for
6 modelling these network systems do at least allow us to under-
7 stand this uncertainty and plan for it.
8 An illustration of the use of the technique is contained in
9 Lewin and Regine’s book.23 They show that by using complexity
30 science you can understand why the management systems of some
1 companies work and others do not. More importantly, they argue
2 that embracing the concept of complexity, and implementing or-
3 ganizational systems that recognize it, leads to more successful
4111 companies. As Tom Peters says of the book:
220 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 Translate ‘chaos theory’ into usable business practice? Roger Lewin
2 and Birute Regine do it!24
3
4 Equally, these new models can be used to develop scenarios
5 of likely outcomes given a range of possible strategic choices. By
6 helping strategy development and providing a tool for rapidly
7 analysing new situations as they arise, these techniques potentially
8 offer significant competitive advantage. In this sense, uncertainty
9 creates opportunity.
10 But being a citizen brand can help too and in three ways in
1 particular. First, because a citizen brand is closer to society it is
2 more likely to pick up signs of disruption earlier than other
3 companies. Being a citizen brand is a bit like having an early
4 warning system.
5 Second, as ethical consumption becomes more important, a
6 citizen brand is more likely to get positive word-of-mouth recom-
7 mendations. Finally, because of the bank of goodwill that has been
8 built up (as I discussed in earlier chapters) these brands are likely
9 to be ‘stickier’ – consumers are more likely to stick with them in
20111 the face of adverse publicity and the like.
1 These points relate to the general model of complex, network
2 system as outlined in this chapter. From my discussion of this and
3 the simulations I have shown, it is clear that there are a number
4 of strategies to deal with the development of a butterfly economy.
5 First, are those that affect the speed that information travels around
6 the network. Already some organizations recognize this and use
7 key opinion formers and/or new technology to promote the distri-
8 bution of a product by word-of-mouth. This would include the
9 currently popular idea of viral marketing. Second are those strate-
30 gies that try to dampen network effects by decreasing brand
1 switching. Here, most interest has been in loyalty programmes that
2 increase the switching costs for consumers (by for example,
3111 providing monetary or other rewards to remain loyal which would
be forgone if they took their custom elsewhere). The problem
B U T T E R F LY C O N S U M E R S 221
1111 with the former is that you are continually trying to run faster
2 to stay ahead of your competitors and, of course, it is inherently
3 unpredictable – playing the chaos game can produce chaotic results.
4 There is also the danger that you might be appealing to the most
5 volatile set of consumers. The problem with the latter is that it
6 has been shown not to work, or at least not to increase stickiness
7 except in the very short term.
8 What are needed are more robust strategies for both sales and
9 retention. For the first, reputation is critical – good product or
10 service (as ever) is most important but increasingly there is likely
1 to be an ethical or citizenship element too. For the second also,
2 it is reputation, rather than loyalty gimmicks, that is likely to
3 provide the brand stickiness that I discussed in earlier chapters as
4 well as this one. For both, again, citizen brands are well placed.
5 In an increasingly whirlwind, helter-skelter environment being a
6 citizen brand will help provide smooth, lasting progress and a
7 defence mechanism against the ups and downs of an ever more
8 volatile consumer world.
91111
20111
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
30
1
2
3
4111
1111
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
20111
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
30
1
2
3111
1111
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
91111
20111
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
30
BECOMING A
1
2
CITIZEN BRAND
3
4111
1111
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
20111
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
30
1
2
3111
1111
2
3 CHAPTER 11
4
5
6
7
BECOMING A
8 CITIZEN BRAND
9
10
1
2
3
4
5
I
6
7
8
91111 n this book, I have considered the overwhelming evidence
20111 that being a good corporate citizen is linked to commercial success
1 and the reasons why this might be so. I have also discussed some
2 of the history and the political and business backgrounds that have
3 restricted a general and serious acceptance of this fact. Perhaps
4 more importantly, I have also shown that for a whole range of
5 reasons, citizenship is likely to become more important in the
6 future. Thus, although it makes commercial sense to embrace it
7 now, it is also a critical strategic issue.
8 Balancing short-term developments and long-term possibili-
9 ties has always been one of the greatest challenges facing business.
30 The dangers are obvious: look too closely ahead and you miss the
1 long-term strategic developments you should be planning for now;
2 look too far out and too strategically and you can become so
3 blinkered that you miss the everyday, tactical decisions that are
4111 crucial for maintaining momentum, competitiveness and market
226 CITIZEN BRANDS
1111 undermined by the minute.The money that was going to the senior
2 executives was probably eclipsed by the loss of brand equity that
3 the furore caused.
4 The problem is that it is unlikely that an executive who seeks
5 a huge remuneration either understands or cares about those values
6 that are embodied by the term citizen brands. My simple advice
7 to companies and investors is to question whether prospective
8 managers who want excessive remuneration packages (and this
9 includes excessive share option schemes too) are really suitable to
10 run a citizen brand company.
1
2
3 COMPETITION IS GOOD
4
5 Companies should also look at their strategies for market domi-
6 nation. Of course, it is a big temptation to work towards an
7 effective monopoly in a market. And, for companies that would
8 rather take the roller-coaster ride of regulatory investigation that
9 it implies, this is an understandable strategy. But, if your ambition
20111 is to be a citizen brand, this is much harder in an oligopoly than
1 in a competitive arena. Part of Virgin’s success reflects its desire to
2 attack cosy cartels and monopolies and it is rewarded with a great
3 reputation among consumers. As I showed in Chapter 2, people
4 are unlikely to view you as open, honest, truthful and trustworthy
5 – key components of being a citizen brand – if you effectively
6 control a market.
7 This creates huge problems for established companies in domi-
8 nant positions who seek to soften their image and develop better
9 relationships with the different communities they operate in as,
30 for example, Coca Cola does (as I note in Chapter 2). How to
1 execute that strategy for companies in this sort of position is a
2 real challenge.
3111
BECOMING A CITIZEN BRAND 233
1111 28 Lynda Gratton, Living Strategy: Putting People at the Heart of Corporate Purpose,
Prentice Hall, 2000.
2 29 Guardian, 27 October 1999.
3 30 Independent, 30 June 1999.
4 31 Business for Social Responsibility, op. cit.
32 Author’s personal discussions with the company.
5 33 Guardian, May 1997.
6 34 Financial Times, 21 April 1997.
7 35 Does Improving a Firm’s Environmental Management System and Environmental
Performance Result in a High Stock Price?, ICF Kaiser, 1997.
8 36 Financial Times, 3 July 1996.
9 37 Quoted in A New Vision for Business, op. cit.
10 38 Ahmed Riahi-Belkaoui, Corporate Social Awareness and Financial Outcomes,
op. cit.
1 39 The Social Investment Forum, www.socialinvest.org
2 40 Quoted in John Hancock, The Ethical Investor, Financial Times Prentice
Hall, 1999.
3 41 Financial Times, 27 June 2000.
4 42 Ibid., 24 November 1996.
5 43 Will Hutton, Society Bites Back, Industrial Society, 2000.
44 In The Future of Brands, Macmillan Press, 2000, Rita Clifton and Esther
6 Maughan of Interbrand define a brand as ‘a mixture of tangible and intan-
7 gible attributes, symbolised in a trademark, which if properly managed,
8 creates influence and generates value’.
45 Interestingly, Clifton and Maughan note how many of the contributors to
91111 their book ‘talked about the increasing importance of brands as relation-
20111 ships’, ibid.
1 46 I briefly discuss this issue further in Chapters 4 and 8.
47 Richard Branson, Losing my Virginity, Virgin Publishing, 1998.
2 48 The Virgin Story, company web site, www.virgin.com
3
4
2 BRA NDS , C I T I Z E N S H I P A N D
5 CONSUM E R S
6
7 1 For fuller details of the project and its conclusions see the published report
The Responsible Organisation, op. cit.
8 2 Richmond Events is an international conference and events organizer.
9 Consumers’ Association is the leading UK consumer organization and
publisher of Which? magazine. The results of the research were presented at
30 various Richmond Events conferences during 1998 and 1999 and a report
1 of the research is available from the Future Foundation. See too, Michael
2 Willmott, Why Corporate Citizenship Pays, Market Leader, Autumn 1999
and Michael Willmott and Paul Flatters,‘Corporate citizenship: the new chal-
3 lenge for business?’, Consumer Affairs, volume 9, no. 6, November/December
4111 1999.
240 NOTES
1111 3 nVision is a subscription service from the Future Foundation that combines
an extensive on-line data and analytic resource with workshops and brief-
2 ings about future trends.
3 4 The Responsible Organisation, op. cit.
4 5 Gallup, 1999.
6 The Responsible Organisation, op. cit.
5 7 Ibid.
6 8 Background report available from the Co-operative Bank web site (www.co-
7 op.co.uk) or Future Foundation.
9 Richmond Events, Consumers’ Association, Future Foundation, op. cit.
8 10 Correspondence analysis is a statistical technique used to represent the results
9 of a cross-tabulation in a two-dimensional map. The
10 dimensions are statistical ones chosen to show to maximum effect the simi-
larities and differences between the companies and adjectives. The way to
1 read the map is by looking at which adjectives are closest to which brand
2 – on the whole these are the adjectives that scored relatively more highly
for that company rather than others.
3 11 The Future of Brands, Interbrand, Macmillan Press, 2000. Interbrand define
4 brand value as the net present value of the economic profit that the brand
5 is expected to generate in the future.
12 Financial Times, 17 June 1998.
6 13 Ibid., 27 March 2000.
7 14 Ibid.
8 15 nVision, Future Foundation, op. cit.
16 In fact, I developed an index by scoring the responses to each question
9 and adding them together. The result for each respondent was a score from
20111 2 to 10, where a high score indicated a more ‘ethical’ stance.
1 17 In this instance, not only those agreeing but also those saying they could
neither agree nor disagree were included. It seems to me that it is accept-
2 able to interpret a lack of positive agreement with the statement as a degree
3 of reticence about corporate behaviour. Certainly, the use of the word ‘most’
in the question may have made it harder for respondents to disagree directly
4 since, for example, they might hold the view that many smaller, local
5 companies are fair. Certainly, there is evidence that what antagonism there
6 is, is directed towards larger, multinational companies who, with global
consolidation, are likely to represent a smaller proportion of the total number
7 of firms (see Chapter 9).
8 18 Richmond Events, Consumers’ Association, Future Foundation, op. cit.
9 19 Respondents were given the following text and then asked whether they
felt the named company operated in this way:
30
Nowadays some people argue that companies need to recognise that
1 they have an important role in society beyond just providing goods and
2 services and employment for people. Indeed, it is suggested that it is in
3111 a company’s own interest to be a good ‘citizen’: that is to recognise that
it has a role to play in maintaining a happy and cohesive society. This
NOTES 241
1111 could be through being a good employer, helping with social problems
or actively participating in debate and analysis about social and eco-
2 nomic issues (by, for example, getting its executives to work with gov-
3 ernment).
4 Although nearly 70 per cent of respondents thought companies generally
5 should ‘definitely’ behave like this (and a further quarter ‘possibly’) only 13
per cent felt specific named companies did act ‘a great deal’ like this at
6 present, with an additional 30 per cent saying they mostly did.
7 20 This is the classic statistical ‘problem’ of multicollinearity.
8
9
10 3 BEY OND P H I L A N T H R O P Y
1
1 David J. Jeremy Capitalists and Christians, Clarendon Press, 1990.
2 2 Ibid.
3 3 Gillian Wagner The Chocolate Conscience, Chatto & Windus, 1987.
4 4 Wilson, C. The History of Unilever, vol. 1, 1954.
5 Detroit News, 14 November 1916, cited in Collins and Porras, Built to Last,
5 Century, 1996.
6 6 Robert Lacey, Ford – The Men and the Machine, Ballantine Books, 1986.
7 Gekko was the main character played by Michael Douglas in Oliver Stone’s
7
1987 film Wall Street.
8 8 Francis Fukuyama, The End of History and the Last Man, Penguin Books,
91111 1993.
9 Interview with a business leader, The Responsible Organisation, Future
20111 Foundation, 1997.
1 10 Naomi Klein, No Logo, Flamingo, 2000 – see also Chapter 9.
2 11 George Monbiot, Captive State: The Corporate Takeover of Britain, Macmillan,
2000 – see also Chapter 9.
3 12 Policy Studies, Policy Studies Institute, 1991.
4 13 Andrew Wilson, Director of Ashridge’s Managing Corporate Community
5 Involvement programme, writing in Ashridge’s journal, Directions, October
1995.
6 14 Society Bites Back, Will Hutton, The Industrial Society, 2000.
7 15 Samuel Brittan, Financial Times, 1 February 1996.
16 Samuel Brittan, Financial Times, 8 July 1999.
8
17 Alastair Ross Goobey, Financial Times, 14 July 1999.
9 18 Mark Goyder, Financial Times, 23 July 1999. See also the Tomorrow’s Company
30 Inquiry report (mentioned in Chapter 1) which noted that ‘For directors
not to give appropriate weight to all the company’s key relationships may
1 well be a breach of their fiduciary duty’.
2 19 See, for example, John Elkington, Cannibals with Forks: The Triple Bottom
3 Line of 21st Century Business, Capstone, 1997.
20 James C. Collins and Jerry I. Porras, Built to Last, Century, 1996.
4111
242 NOTES
1111 4 A M OD E L F O R C I T I Z E N B R A N D S
2
1 In reality, of course, many people are sympathetic to all or most of these
3 causes – and there is an undeniable left-of-centre stance to all this. But,
4 the broad citizenship canvas does still bring together conservatives seeking
5 corporate help with, say, animal rights or local arts funding and left-wingers
campaigning to improve pay and conditions for workers or to counter
6 human rights abuses.
7 2 ICF Kaiser report noted in Chapter 1.
3 Collins and Porras, Built to Last, op. cit.
8 4 See, for example, Work-life Strategies for the 21st Century,The National Work-
9 Life Forum, 2000.
10 5 While I am an animal lover myself, I have to admit that given the choice
of whether new medicines or cosmetics should be tested on animals or
1 humans, I would choose the former. Perhaps, the protesters would prefer
2 that the new products and treatments were not tested at all but this would
3 lead either to potentially unsafe products being foisted on the public or no
new developments at all – a form of extreme conservatism embodied in
4 the Precautionary Principle that I discuss in Chapter 8. Whatever one’s
5 views on this, I could not condone the use of violence, either real or threat-
6 ened.
6 Who are the Ethical Consumers?, Co-operative Bank, 2000.
7 7 Ibid.
8 8 Policy Studies, op. cit.
9 Executive interviews with business leaders quoted in The Responsible
9 Organisation, op. cit.
20111 10 Sir Iain Vallance and Sir Peter Bonfield in BT’s Community Partnership
1 Programme Report, BT Cares, 1997.
11 Why do we have a Commitment to the Community?, Marks and Spencer web
2 site, www.marksandspencer.com
3 12 Autocar India, January 2000.
4 13 See, for example, Peters and Waterman’s In Search of Excellence, HarperCollins,
1995; plus their individual works.
5 14 Gary Hamel and C.K. Prahalad, Competing for the Future, Harvard Business
6 School Press, 1994.
7 15 Drucker is a prodigious writer and many of his texts are relevant here. For
example, Post-capitalist society, Butterworth-Heinemann, 1993.
8 16 Viscount Leverhulme, quoted in David Ogilvy, Confessions of an Advertising
9 Man, Atheneum, 1980.
17 Mike Hall, How Advertisers Think Marketing Works, British Market Research
30 Society Annual Conference, 1991.
1 18 See, for example, Mike Hall, ‘How advertising works: new steps on the
2 advertising timeline,’ Paper given to the APG Conference – Boston, 1998.
19 Whether this was the right advertising model to use when you are being
3111 accused of being insensitive to customers needs (because you are closing hun-
dreds of local branches) is, to say the least, a moot point.
NOTES 243
1111 20 Mike Hall, ‘How advertising works: new steps on the advertising timeline,’
op. cit.
2 21 John Kay, Financial Times, 14 March 1997.
3 22 ‘How advertising impacts on profitability,’ Leslie Butterfield, IPA, Advalue
4 Issue One, September 1998.
23 The PIMS database was established in 1972 and now covers more than
5 3000 companies. It contains a range of data on each company covering
6 financial, marketing and market characteristics. More details about PIMS
7 are contained in The PIMS Principles, R. Buzzell and B. Gale, Free Press,
1987.
8 24 ‘How advertising impacts on profitability,’ Leslie Butterfield, op. cit.
9 25 Ibid.
10 26 Alan McWalter, when Marketing Director at Woolworths.
1
2
5 PEA CE A N D P L E N T Y
3
4 1 Oliver James, Britain on the Couch: Why are we Unhappier Compared to the
5 1950s – Despite Being Richer?, Arrow, 1998.
2 Andrew Oswald, ‘Happiness and economic performance’, Economic Journal,
6 107, 1997.
7 3 Juliet Schor, The Overworked American, Basic Books, c 1991.
8 4 Juliet Schor, The Overspent American, Basic Books, c 1998.
5 John P. Robinson and Geoffrey Godbey, Time for Life, Penn State Press,
91111 1997.
20111 6 Robert H. Frank, Luxury Fever: Why Money Fails to Satisfy in an Era of
1 Success, Free Press, 1999.
7 John P. Robinson and Geoffrey Godbey, Time for Life, op. cit.
2 8 Jonathan Gershuny and Kimberly Fisher, Leisure in the UK Across the 20th
3 Century, Institute for Social and Economic Research, Essex University,
4 Working Paper, 99-3, 1999. Also published in A.H. Kalsey (ed.), British Social
Trends: the 20th Century, Macmillan, 1999.
5 9 Jonathan Gershuny, first published in Prospect magazine, but similar patterns
6 are observable in Jonathan Gershuny and Kimberly Fisher, Leisure in the
UK Across the 20th Century, op. cit. See also Complicated Lives, Abbey
7 National/Future Foundation, available from the Future Foundation, 2000,
8 and The Millennial Family, Boarding Education Alliance/Future Foundation,
9 1998. Note that Robinson and Godbey do not find any increase in child
care time in the United States but that ‘contrary to popular belief . . . both
30 employed and non-employed women in 1985 spent just as much time in
1 child care as those in the 1960s’.
2 10 John Seely Brown and Paul Duguid, The Social Life of Information, Harvard
Business School Press, 2000.
3 11 Out of politeness for those in my fellow profession I will not name the
4111 specific organizations involved.
244 NOTES
1111 12 Jim Murphy is Director of Model Reasoning and an Associate of the Future
Foundation and has developed the idea of Peace and Plenty for both his
2 own work and for the Future Foundation. All the main tenets of the argu-
3 ment as outlined here were first developed and articulated by him. I,
4 however, take responsibility for this particular description and some of the
interpretations.
5 13 Source: National Statistics.
6 14 MORI, www.mori.com
7 15 The survey is carried out as part of the Future Foundation’s nVision service.
16 Melvyn Bragg, The Soldier’s Return, Hodder and Stoughton, 1999.
8 17 David Gordon et al., Poverty and Social Exclusion in Britain, Joseph Rowntree
9 Foundation, 2000.
10 18 For example, Ulrich Beck believes that ‘Any attempt to create a new sense
of social cohesion has to start from the recognition that individualism, diver-
1 sity and scepticism are written into Western culture’. If cohesion is
2 dependent on diversity and individual needs, then is a search for unifor-
mity in income distribution a suitable strategy? Ulrich Beck, in On the
3 Edge, edited by Anthony Giddens and Will Hutton, Jonathan Cape, 2000.
4 19 I see little evidence as yet of the development of a ‘culture of envy’ but it
5 clearly will develop if income polarization continues unabated.
20 Source: National Statistics.
6 21 James Banks and Sarah Tanner, Household Saving in the UK, Institute of
7 Fiscal Studies, 1999.
8 22 Abraham Maslow, Motivation and Personality, Harper, 1954.
23 Ronald Inglehart, Modernization and Postmodernization, Princetown
9 University Press, 1997.
20111 24 The Millennium Poll on Corporate Social Responsibility, Conducted by
1 Environics International Ltd in cooperation with The Prince of Wales
Business Leaders Forum and The Conference Board, 1999.
2 25 Respondents were asked to define a company’s role: (a) ‘Focus
3 on making a profit, paying taxes and providing employment in ways that
obey all laws’ or (b) ‘Do all this in ways that set higher ethical standards,
4 going beyond what is required by law, and actively helping to build a better
5 society for all’ or (c) ‘Operate somewhere between these two points of
6 view’. The figure plotted in the graph is the proportion giving answer (b)
minus those choosing (a).
7 26 Who are the Ethical Consumers? Co-operative Bank, 2000. These data are
8 from the background report available from the Co-operative Bank website,
9 www.co-op.co.uk
27 MORI defined ‘post materialists’ in the same way as Inglehart (op. cit.) did
30 in his study that found increasing numbers of them over time.
1 28 John Gray, False Dawn – the Delusions of Global Capitalism, New Press, 1999.
2 29 Jeff Faux and Larry Mishel, in ‘Inequality and the global economy’, in On
the Edge, edited by Anthony Giddens and Will Hutton, Jonathan Cape, 2000.
3111 30 Shiva uses particularly strong language labelling globalization as ‘environ-
mental apartheid’ and blaming it for ‘the piracy of third world biological
NOTES 245
1111 and intellectual wealth’.Vandana Shiva, ‘The world on the edge’, in On the
Edge, op. cit.
2 31 David Dollar and Aart Kray, Growth is Good for the Poor, World Bank, 2000.
3 32 Interestingly, research studies differ on whether employees actually feel less
4 secure in their jobs. Recent analysis of British Household Panel Study data
by the Institute of Social and Economic Research at Essex University
5 suggests that during the course of the 1990s there has not been an increase
6 in the proportion of workers feeling insecure in their jobs. Data available
7 from the Future Foundation or ISER.
33 Charles Leadbeater, Living on Thin Air, Viking, 1999.
8 34 Mark Lilla, ‘A tale of two reactions’, New York Review of Books, 14 May
9 1998.
10 35 Philip Stephens, Financial Times, 6 November 1998.
1
2 6 BEY OND ‘ E N D I S M ’
3 1 In this chapter I concentrate on digital technology but, of course, there is
4 another technological revolution around the corner – bio-technology and
5 genomics. The impact of these could be even more important but the exact
extent is far less clear at present. I do, tangentially, address some of the
6 potential problems of bio-technology in Chapter 8.
7 2 Xerox’s Palo Alto Research Center (PARC) is renowned for its research
8 and development work. Seely Brown and Duguid note in The Social Life
of Information, Harvard Business School Press, 2000 that it ‘developed the
91111 elements of the personal computer’ and specially, but not only, the concept
20111 of the ‘graphical user interface’ (GUI). The story of how Xerox was unable
1 to exploit the GUI idea, allowing Steve Jobs from Apple to license it from
PARC, incorporate it into Apple’s Macintosh computer and change the
2 face of the PC ‘desktop’, has now entered folklore.
3 3 John Seely Brown and Paul Duguid, The Social Life of Information, Harvard
Business School Press, 2000.
4 4 To be honest, I have myself occasionally lapsed into such simplistic pro-
5 nouncements. To be fair to myself and others, though, and
6 although it is not always made clear, there is often an implicit, if
not explicit, ‘as we currently know it’ qualification to these state-
7 ments.
8 5 Although I couldn’t agree with the general admonition of futurologists per
9 se.
6 A particular favourite is Stewart Brand’s book, The Clock of The Long Now,
30 Phoenix Press, 1999 which, although it has a broader theme, provides a
1 very coherent and compelling analysis of the importance of both Moore’s
2 Law and Metcalfe’s Law. A good history of the microchip is provided in
George Gilder’s Microcosm, Simon and Schuster, 1989, while Bill Gates’ take
3 on the early days as described in The Road Ahead, Viking Books, 1995 is
4111 also interesting. Some of Gates’ prognostications are not too bad either.
246 NOTES
1111 7 What became known later as Moore’s Law was first postulated by Gordon E.
Moore in a paper in the technical journal Electronics on 19 April 1965.Then
2 head of electronics at Fairchild Camera and Instrument Corporation (later he
3 was co-founder of Intel), Moore’s paper noted that between 1959 and 1965
4 the number of components (transistors) that could fit on a chip had doubled
every year. He predicted that this would continue, a prediction that was
5 amended to doubling every 18 months following what in fact happened
6 between 1965 and 1975.The prediction has remained remarkably accurate up
7 to the present day. The impact is astounding, particularly as the acceleration
continues. (Source: Stewart Brand, The Clock of the Long Now, op. cit.)
8 8 In mathematical terms, if V equals value and N equals the number of network
9 users then the Law can be denoted as V = N 2. In reality, the real formula is V
10 = N (N ⫺ 1) since in a net of ten users, each has nine others they can connect
to – the total number of connections is 10 × 9 = 90. But if you double the
1 number of users (to 20) each has 19 possible connections equalling a total of
2 380. A doubling of users has led to around a fourfold increase in connections
(and hence value).Ten times the number of people equals roughly a hundred
3 times the value; a thousand times the people gives around a million times the
4 value. (Source: ibid.)
5 9 Ibid.
10 Throughout the rest of this chapter, when I refer to the uses of ‘mobile phones’
6 I sometimes use it as a generic term that includes other small portable devices
7 – in other words including personal digital assistants or portable ‘tablets’.
8 11 Anthony Giddens, The Runaway World, BBC Reith Lectures, 1999.
12 Stewart Brand, The Clock of the Long Now, op. cit.
9 13 Anthony Giddens, op. cit.
20111 14 Quoted in Charles Leadbeater, Living on Thin Air, Penguin Books, 2000.
1 15 Manuel Castells, The Rise of the Network Society, op. cit.
16 Jonathan Gershuny and Kimberly Fisher, Leisure in the UK Across
2 the 20th Century, Institute for Social and Economic Research, Essex
3 University, Working Paper, 99-3, 1999. Also published in A.H. Kalsey (ed.),
British Social Trends: the 20th Century, Macmillan, 1999.
4 17 Jonathan Gershuny, first published in Prospect magazine, but similar patterns are
5 observable in Jonathan Gershuny and Kimberly Fisher, Leisure in the UK Across
6 the 20th Century, op. cit.
18 See, for example, www.adbusters.com
7 19 I am thinking here specifically of the sociological theory of social exchange
8 first proposed by Peter Blau in Exchange and Power in Social Life, John Wiley,
9 1964. Interestingly, the theory argues that trust is the critical element in social
‘exchanges’, reinforcing the importance of this in consumer and business
30 exchanges too.
1
2 7 COPI NG W I T H C H O I C E
3111 1 I wonder how much this view is – as in the discussion about ‘peace and plenty’
– a romanticized memory of the past. My own recollection from the 1960s is
NOTES 247
1111 of a sometimes poor, certainly inconsistent and occasionally even grumpy, ser-
vice. Perhaps, though, my experience in London, where I was living, was not
2 typical of the country at large, or, indeed, of other countries.
3 2 Complicated Lives, op. cit.
4 3 Ibid.
4 Ibid.
5 5 Source: A.C. Nielsen.
6 6 Ibid.
7 7 OFTEL suggest that you can assume that the average consumer now has
at least three suppliers to choose from in the fixed line market. This is an
8 absolute minimum, because issues arise about how to classify card opera-
9 tors who offer international discounts, re-sellers, etc. To the three fixed line
operators, we add the four mobile suppliers. Source: From Doormat to Digital:
10 the Future for Bill Payments, nPower/Future Foundation, 2000.
1 8 The research was conducted for the Future Foundation’s nVision service,
2 op. cit.
9 From Doormat to Digital: the Future for Bill Payments, nPower/Future
3 Foundation, 2000.
4 10 Complicated Lives, op. cit.
11 Ibid.
5
12 I am perhaps not completely objective on this point as one of my teenage
6 children is a constant clothes shopper and continually complains about the
7 lack of suitable clothes to wear.
13 Complicated Lives, op. cit.
8 14 Ibid.
91111 15 Ibid.
20111 16 The Future of Brands, edited by Rita Clifton and Esther Maughan,
Interbrand/Macmillan Press, 2000.
1
2 8 SURVI V I N G A C U LT U R E O F F E A R
3
1 Reuters, 24 July 2000.
4 2 New York Post, 25 July 2000.
5 3 www.ci.nyc.nc.us
6 4 www.cdc.gov
5 Associated Press, London, 5 May 2000.
7 6 New York City Department of Health web site, www.ci.nyc.ny.us/
8 html/doh/
9 7 See, for example, the European Commission’s statement of its approach to, and
guidelines for the use of, the principle in Communication from the Commission
30 on the Precautionary Principle, Commission of the European Communities, 2
1 February, 2000.
2 8 Karl Popper, The Logic of Scientific Discovery, Hutchinson, 1959.
9 Stewart Report, Independent Expert Group on Mobile Phones, c/o National
3 Radiological Protection Board, 2000 (also available at www.
4111 iegmp.org.uk).
248 NOTES
1111 10 See for example the well-publicized case of Lord Peter Melchett,
Greenpeace campaigner, who led a group of activists to destroy a GMO
2 test site. He and his fellow protesters were subsequently, and amazingly,
3 acquitted of an illegal act.
4 11 Norman Levitt, Professor of mathematics, Rutgers University; author,
Prometheus Bedeviled: Science and the Contradictions of Contemporary Culture –
5 Author’s notes from the Precautionary Principle Conference, op. cit.
6 12 Financial Times, 12 May 2000.
7 13 Author’s notes from the Precautionary Principle Conference, op. cit.
14 Social Issues Research Centre, http://www.sirc.org/articles/beware.html
8 15 Freeman Dyson, Imagined Worlds, Harvard University Press, 1997.
9 16 ‘Chronic systemic pesticide exposure reproduces features of Parkinson’s
10 disease’, R. Betarbet,T.B. Sherer, G. Mackenzie, M. Garcia-Osuna,A.V. Panov
and J.T. Greenamyre, Nature Neuroscience, volume 3, no. 12, December 2000.
1 17 Interestingly, those who have argued against GMOs have not suggested this
2 course of action as they are, on the whole, great supporters of organic
farming. This points again to the political agenda underlying the debate
3 about the precautionary principle.
4 18 Frank Furedi, The Culture of Fear, Cassell, 1997.
5 19 Ibid.
20 General Household Survey available from National Statistics.
6 21 British Crime Survey 2000, Home Office.
7 22 Barry Glassner, The Culture of Fear, Basic Books, 1999.
8 23 Ibid.
24 Food Crimes, Co-operative Wholesale Society, 2000.
9 25 New York Times, 30 July, 2000.
20111 26 Stuart Sutherland, Irrationality: The Enemy Within, Constable, 1992.
1
2 9 SO-SO LOGO
3
1 Naomi Klein, No Logo, Flamingo, 2000.
4 2 Ibid.
5 3 George Monbiot, The Captive State: the Corporate Takeover of Britain,
6 Macmillan, 2000.
4 Ibid.
7 5 Claire Short, quoted in the Financial Times, 26 September, 2000.
8 6 Attributed to Claire Short in the Financial Times, 26 September, 2000.
9 7 Kofi Annan, quoted in Responsible Business, The Prince of Wales Business
Leaders Forum and the Financial Times, 8 November 2000.
30 8 Naomi Klein, No Logo, op. cit.
1 9 Business Week, 11 September 2000.
2 10 nVision/Future Foundation.
11 The remainder, around a third of respondents, said they neither agreed nor
3111 disagreed. In the rest of this chapter, where I quote agree and disagree figures,
the remainder will always be in the ‘neither’ category.
NOTES 249
1111 12 John Vidal, McLibel: Burger Culture on Trial, Macmillan, 1997; David C.
Korten, When Corporations Rule the World, Earthscan, 1996.
2 13 Charles Handy, Empty Raincoat, Arrow, 1995.
3 14 Anthony Giddens,Analysis Programme, BBC Radio 4, February 1997.
4 15 The exact question wording here was ‘Overall I think global capitalism
benefits all’.
5 16 This was based on four different questions about attitudes to multinationals.
6 17 Laura Oswald, ‘The place and space of consumption in a material world’,
7 Design Issues, Volume 12 (1), 1996.
18 Wendy Gordon and Virginia Valentine, The 21st Century Consumer, Market
8 Research Society Annual Conference Proceedings, 2000. See also the work
9 of the French school of sociology – for example, Pierre Bourdieu, Roland
10 Barthes and Jean Baudrillard.
1
2 10 BUTTERFLY CONSUMERS
3 1 David Butler, Financial Times, 29 September 2000. Butler’s figures represent
the average across a range of polls so do not tally exactly with the MORI
4 figures shown in the chart.
5 2 This term is derived from the title of Paul Ormerod’s book Butterfly
6 Economics, Faber and Faber, 1998.
3 Manuel Castells, Wired Magazine, November 1998.
7 4 Inside Information, a report for BT by the Future Foundation, 1997. Available
8 from the Future Foundation.
5 Carl Shapiro and Hal R. Varian, Information Rules: A Strategic Guide to the
91111
Network Economy, Harvard Business School Press, 1999.
20111 6 Malcolm Gladwell, The Tipping Point, Little, Brown and Company, 2000.
1 7 Carl Shapiro and Hal R. Varian, op. cit.
8 Bosses must learn from boffins, Daily Telegraph, 27 October 1999.
2 9 Malcolm Gladwell, The Tipping Point, op. cit.
3 10 Paul Ormerod, Butterfly Economics, op. cit.
4 11 Future Foundation, Shopping Futures Study – Diary Study, 1998.
12 He described some of the jewellery as ‘crap’.
5 13 Knox and Dennison, Profiling the Promiscuous Shopper: Evaluating Shopper
6 Loyalty, Cranfield University, 1993.
14 The Loyalty Paradox, Brann, 1995.
7 15 Paul Ormerod, Butterfly Economics, op. cit.
8 16 Personal correspondence with the author.
9 17 W.B. Arthur, ‘Competing technologies, increasing returns and lock-in by
historical processes’, Economic Journal, September 1989 is one of the very
30 earliest pieces of work in this whole area.
1 18 A. Kirman, ‘The behaviour of the foreign exchange market, Bank of England
2 Quarterly Bulletin, 1995.
19 A. De Vany and W.D. Wallis, Economic Journal, November 1996.
3 20 Paul Ormerod, Butterfly Economics, op. cit.
4111 21 Roger Lewin and Birute Regine, The Soul at Work, Orion, 1999.
250 NOTES
1111 sales response model, advertising 93–5 see also human resources;
salience model, advertising 93–6 shareholders
2 Salt, Titus 67 state controlled welfare provision
3 satisfaction 98, 99–100 68–72
4 scare stories 184–6 Stewart Committee 176–7
Schor, Juliet 105 stock market performance
5 science 170–2, 174–5, 178–9 corporate governance 16
6 see also innovation employee strategies 20
7 scientific proof 171 environmental practices 23
scientists 174–5 investors 25–7
8 search criteria, managing choice 157–8 strategic development, time scale
9 Seely Brown, John 129–30, 142 focus 225–6
10 self-actualization 117–18, 123–4 ‘strawberry’ test 176–7
self-interest 34–40 Superdrug 47
1 Shapiro, Carl 208–9 supermarkets 146–9
2 shareholders 3, 65, 75–80 suppliers 86
Shell 45, 47, 50, 211 Sutherland, Stuart 185
3 Short, Claire 191
4 short-term focus 76, 77, 225–6 take-away food 149
5 ‘sixties’ generation 199–200 Taylor Nelson Sofres 53
Sky technology
6 consumer attitude 43, 45–6, 47–8 business responses 141–2
7 market conditions 50–1 communications 132–3, 140–1,
8 sleep, variance across time 105 208–10
small and medium-sized businesses computer models 214–20
91111 235 computer rivals 210
20111 social concerns 34–6, 73, 89–90 data protection 141–2
1 Social Investment Forum 25 historical impacts 130, 137
socially responsible investment 25–6, immediacy culture 135–6, 142
2 25–7, 89 interactive services 131–3, 138,
3 social protection legislation 70 161, 211
social trends 38, 55 mobility 132–3, 137–9
4 society pace of innovation 134–5
5 business relationship 77–8, 193 precautionary principle 170–2, 174,
6 company understanding 228, 230 176–81
development hierarchy 117–19, predictions 129–33
7 123–4 product promotion 220–1
8 increased connections 217–19 revolution 129–42, 208–10
9 innovation fears 170 World e-Inclusion programme
perceived changes over time 22–3, 226–7
30 104–7 telecommunications, choice 151–2
1 role in companies 27, 226 television 116, 132, 150
2 South America, technology 133 ‘terminator genes’ 173
space perception 136–9 Tesco
3 sports funding 227–8 consumer attitude 45, 47–8
4111 stakeholders 17, 75–6 employees 230
260 INDEX