Welcome to Scribd, the world's digital library. Read, publish, and share books and documents. See more
Download
Standard view
Full view
of .
Look up keyword or section
Like this
55Activity
0 of .
Results for:
No results containing your search query
P. 1
Marketing Models

Marketing Models

Ratings:

5.0

(1)
|Views: 1,605 |Likes:
Probability Modeling for Predicting Various Marketing issues.
Probability Modeling for Predicting Various Marketing issues.

More info:

Published by: Professor Sameer Kulkarni on Sep 10, 2008
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

Availability:

Read on Scribd mobile: iPhone, iPad and Android.
download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
See more
See less

05/14/2013

pdf

text

original

 
Applied Probability Modelsin Marketing Research: Introduction
Bruce G.S. Hardie
London Business School
bhardie@london.edu
Peter S. Fader
University of Pennsylvania
faderp@wharton.upenn.edu
12th Annual Advanced Research Techniques ForumJune 24–27, 2001
©2001 Bruce G.S. Hardie and Peter S. Fader
1
Problem 1:Predicting New Product Trial
(Modeling Timing Data)
2
 
Background
Ace Snackfoods, Inc. has developed a new snack productcalled Krunchy Bits. Before deciding whether or not to “gonational” with the new product, the marketing manager forKrunchy Bits has decided to commission a year-long test marketusing IRI’s BehaviorScan service, with a view to getting a clearerpicture of the product’s potential.The product has now been under test for 24 weeks. Onhand is a dataset documenting the number of households thathave made a trial purchase by the end of each week. (The totalsize of the panel is 1499 households.)The marketing manager for Krunchy Bits would like aforecast of the product’s year-end performance in the testmarket. First, she wants a forecast of the percentage of households that will have made a trial purchase by week 52.
3
Krunchy Bits Cumulative Trial
Week # Households Week # Households1 8 13 682 14 14 723 16 15 754 32 16 815 40 17 906 47 18 947 50 19 968 52 20 969 57 21 9610 60 22 9711 65 23 9712 67 24 101
4
 
Krunchy Bits Cumulative Trial
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52Week0510
    C   u   m .    %    H   o   u   s   e     h   o     l     d   s    T   r   y    i   n   g
..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ........................................
5
Approaches to Forecasting Trial
• French curve“Curve fittingspecify a flexible functional form,fit it to the data, and project into the future.Probability model
6

Activity (55)

You've already reviewed this. Edit your review.
1 hundred reads
1 thousand reads
Adnan Jivani liked this
masrifai liked this
Maggie Khunou liked this
Gagan Saggar liked this
shivnath_123 liked this
uma19985883 liked this

You're Reading a Free Preview

Download
scribd
/*********** DO NOT ALTER ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE ! ************/ var s_code=s.t();if(s_code)document.write(s_code)//-->