Demography of Russia and

the Former Soviet Union

Lecture 5

Sociology SOCI 20182

Fertility measures and patterns
 Fertility measures
1. Crude Birth Rate, CBR
2. General Fertility Rate, GFR
3. Age-specific Fertility Rates, ASFR or
Age-specific Birth Rates, ASBR
4. Marital Fertility Rate, MFR
5. Total Fertility Rate,  TFR
(period and cohort)
6. Gross Reproduction Rate, GRR
7. Net Reproduction Rate, NRR
8. Parity Progression Ratios, PPR
 Crude Birth Rate, CBR
 Number of births in the studied year
divided by average size of the
population during the year, per 1,000
persons:

 CBR = Births / Total Population on July 1,

x 1,000 to get per 1,000 persons
 Crude Birth Rate, Pros and Cons
 Pros:
1. Easy to calculate
2. Useful for calculation of the Rate of Natural Increase, RNI:

RNI = CBR (crude birth rate) - CDR (crude death rate)

and the Population Growth Rate, PGR:

PGR = RNI (rate of natural increase) + NMR (net migration

rate)

 Cons:
Depends not only on individual-level childbearing behavior,
but also on age and sex distribution of population.
 Crude Birth Rate, Cons
 In old societies (with
many retirement 30.0
Births, CBR

communities), and 25.0

Deaths, CDR

counties with male

Rate per 1000 population

20.0

excess (e.g. with 15.0

military bases), Crude
Birth Rate may be 10.0

exceptionally low, 5.0

even if young women 0.0

there have a lot of 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

children
Figure. CBR dynamics in Russia depends
on population structure
 General Fertility Rate, GFR
 Number of births in the studied year
divided by average size of the
WOMEN of CHILDBEARING AGE (15 -
49 years ) during the year, per 1,000
persons:

 GFR = Births / Midyear female

population, aged 15-49 years,
x 1,000 to get per 1,000 women
 General Fertility Rate, Pros and Cons
 Pros:
Characterizes fertility of women better than CBR
(crude birth rate)
Empirical observation: in most countries the
reproductive female population (aged 15-49
years) is close to 25% of the total population

 Cons:
1. Too wide age range: women have different birth
rates at specific ages within 15-49 year age
interval.
2. In older societies (with many women aged 40-49
years), General Fertility Rate may be
exceptionally low, even if younger women there
have a very high fertility.
 Age-specific Fertility Rates, ASFR  or
Age-specific Birth Rates, ASBR
 Similar to crude birth rate but
calculated for specific age groups of
women of childbearing age:

Age groups: Single-year age groups,

or five-year age groups (15-19, 20-
24, .... 45-49)
Age range: 15 - 49, or 15 - 44 years
 Age-specific Fertility Rates, Example
 Age-specific Fertility Rate, ASFR, for Age
Group 20-24 years =

= Births to women, aged 20-24 / Number of

women aged 20-24 at midyear of the study
period,

x 1,000 to get per 1,000 persons

 Rarely, Age-specific Fertility Rates, ASFR

are also calculated for men, when male
fertility is studied.
Age-specific fertility rate (per 1000 women)
in Russia (left) and Ukraine (right)
Age-specific fertility (per 1000 women) in
Russia (red) and Greece (blue)
 Age-specific Fertility Rates, Pros and Cons

 Pros:
Basis for all subsequent detailed studies
on fertility

 Cons:
1. Detailed data are required, which may be
not available for developing countries,
war periods, and historic studies.
2. These data are too detailed to be used to
calculate population growth rates, or
natural increase rates
 Marital Fertility Rates, MFR
 Fertility rates of married women, either at specific ages
(Age-specific Marital Fertility Rates, ASMFR), or the full
range of reproductive ages (15 - 49, or 15 - 44 years) --
General Marital Fertility Rate, GMFR.

 Example:

Marital Fertility Rate, MFR =

= Births to married women, aged 15-49 / Number

of married women aged 15-49 at midyear of the
study period,

x 1,000 to get per 1,000 persons

 Marital Fertility Rates, Pros and Cons
 Pros:
1. Enables analysis of marital fertility and the pace and timing
of childbearing that occurs within formal marriage.
2. Takes into account situations when many women could not
marry, because of lack of men (e.g., male losses in World
War II)
3. Takes into account differences and changes in the age at
marriage, and marriage duration (effects of divorces)

 Cons:
1. Requires detailed data on marital status by age, which may
be not available for developing countries, and historic
studies.
2. Provides only partial picture for populations with extensive
non-marital fertility (cohabitation)
Proportion of out-of-marriage births in
Russia and Ukraine
 Total Fertility Rate,  TFR
Period total fertility rate, PTFR
 The average number of children a women
would bear in her life if she experiences
the age-specific fertility rates prevailing at
the study period.

 Total Fertility Rate, TFR, for a given year is

calculated by summing the age-specific
fertility rates for that year over the range
of reproductive ages.
TFR changes over time, Russia
TFR changes over time
Russia, USA, Estonia
TFR changes over time
(some FSU countries)
Recent changes in TFR
Russian and Ukraine
Regional differences in TFR, Russia
TFR in European countries
 Period total fertility rate, Pros and Cons
 Pros:
1. Helps to determine whether population will decline (TFR < 2.1), be
close to stationary (near zero or slow population growth at TFR =
2.1 - 3.0), or rapidly growing (TFR > 3).

Empirically, the relationship between the Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

and the Crude Birth Rate (CBR) looks like:
Crude Birth Rate (CBR) of 50 per 1,000 corresponds to Total Fertility
Rate (TFR) of about 7 children per women
Crude Birth Rate (CBR) of 15 per 1,000 corresponds to Total Fertility
Rate (TFR) of about 2 children per women

 Cons:
1. Period Total Fertility Rate describes fertility observed during a
short study period (usually one year period). Because fertility
changes over time, the period TFR is a poor measure of the
completed fertility of older women, and a poor predictor of the
anticipated completed fertility of younger women (at early stages
of their reproductive "career").
Cohort Total Fertility Rate,  CTFR
 The average number of children a women
bears in her life, for women born in a
specific time period (specific year, or five-
year birth period, named a birth cohort).

 Cohort Total Fertility Rate, CTFR, for a

given birth cohort is calculated by
summing the actual age-specific fertility
rates over the range of reproductive ages
for women born in a specific time period.
 Period TFR for hypothetical cohorts
(red) and Cohort TFR for real cohorts
(blue) in Russia
 Cohort Total Fertility Rate, Pros and Cons
 Pros:
1. Allows a precise description of the actual childbearing experience
of specific birth cohorts of women
2. Superior to census and survey questions on "children ever born",
because it does not omit the childbearing experience of women
who died before the time of the census or survey.

 Cons:
1. Requires detailed historical data on birth rates by age of mothers
born in specific years, which may be not available for developing
countries.
2. Can be calculated only at the conclusion of a cohort's childbearing
years (for women who have passed the 50-year mark). Therefore
it can not be calculated for those women who were born after year
1958.
3. Mostly historical significance, little relevance to current fertility
situation
 Gross Reproduction Rate, GRR
(period)
 The average number of DAUGHTERS a women would bear in
her life if she experiences the age-specific fertility rates (for
daughters) prevailing at the study period.

 Gross Reproduction Rate, GRR, in most circumstances

equals roughly a half of the Total Fertility Rate, TFR
(slightly less than a half, because boys are somewhat more
prevalent at birth than girls)

 Exception:
China "One Child" policy leads to a distortion of sex ratio at
birth in favor of boys, leading to a lower Gross
Reproduction Rate, GRR.
 Gross Reproduction Rate, Pros and Cons

 Pros:
1. Helps to aggregate age-specific fertility rates
into one simple measure: mean number of
daughters expected per one woman.
2. Sensitive indicator on how future fertility could
be affected by a distortion of sex ratio at birth
(e.g., China).

 Cons:
1. Adds little information to the Total Fertility Rate,
TFR
2. Could be misleading, because changes in the
timing of births do not necessarily change the
total number of life-time births per woman
 Net Reproduction Rate, NRR
(period)
 The average number of DAUGHTERS a women would bear in
her life if she experiences the age-specific fertility rates (for
daughters) prevailing at the study period, AND if her
daughters experienced the prevailing rates of mortality.

 If the age schedules of both fertility and mortality remain

constant, the Net Reproduction Rate would be a measure of
generational REPLACEMENT.

 Examples:

NRR = 1.1 -- next generation will be 10% larger than the

present generation (growth)
NRR = 1.0 -- next generation will be the same as the present
generation (replacement level)
NRR = 0.9 -- next generation will be 10% smaller than the
present generation (depopulation)
NRR for Armenia, Russia and
Uzbekistan
NRR for Russia, USA and Estonia
NRR for Russia (with latest data)
 Net Reproduction Rate, Pros and Cons
 Pros:
1. Taking into account both fertility and
survival in getting one indicator of
reproductivity of a population

 Cons:
1. Requires detailed data on fertility and
survival of women, up to age 50 years
2. Does not take into account that women
born in different years may have different
fertility and survival
 Parity Progression Ratios, PPR
(cohort)
 A proportion of women of a given
"parity" (number of live births), who
go on to have at least one
ADDITIONAL child during the course
of their remaining childbearing years.

 This is a probability of progressing

from parity X to all higher parities
(X + 1, X + 2, etc). PPR < 1.0
 Parity Progression Ratio, formula

Number of women at parity i  1 or more P (i  1)

PPR(i, i  1)  
Number of women at parity i or more P (i )
 Parity Progression Ratio, Pros and Cons

 Pros:
1. Useful for studies of reproduction in specific birth
cohorts of women
2. Helps to detect and estimate family planning and
birth control becoming more strict at specific
higher parities (in developed countries often at
parity 2)

 Cons:
1. Could be studied only for older women (50+
years) who completed their childbearing years
2. Requires detailed data on children ever born
from a census or survey
 Demographic Transition
 A belief that all countries will eventually
follow the same scenario: a transition
from high mortality and fertility rates to
low mortality and fertility rates (both with
relatively slow population growth rate).

 A state of low mortality and high fertility

(with explosive population growth) is
believed to be a historically "short"
transitional state, caused by the time lag
between mortality decline and a
subsequent fertility decline.
Demographic Transition (schema)

High High Low

Fertility Fertility Fertility
High Low Low
Mortality Mortality Mortality
 Why should fertility decline?
Three preconditions should coexist: "ready, willing,
able“ (A. Coale, 1973)

1. "Ready: Fertility must be within the calculus of

conscious choice.“ The idea of fertility
regulation should become culturally acceptable

2. "Willing: Reduced fertility must be

advantageous“ Perceived gains to motivate
couples to have fewer children

3. "Able: Effective techniques of fertility reduction

must be available“ Dissemination of knowledge
and cheap/effective contraceptive supplies
Demographic transition in Russia
 At the beginning of the 20th century
Russia had very high but not very
efficient fertility - many children did
not survive to adult ages because of
high child mortality
 However difference between children
born and children survived to adult
ages became small for cohorts of
mothers born after 1925 (result of
declining infant mortality)
 Number of children surviving to
different ages per woman, Russia
 Women were involved more in
industrial labor

 Down with
kitchen
slavery!
Rapid decline of fertility after
bolshevik revolution

Slogan: Liberated
woman – Build
Socialism!
After the revolution
bolshevik government
allowed abortions
Sex was considered a
natural need (compared
to ‘glass of water’)
Number of children per woman in
Russia and developed countries

Maternal birth cohort

Stalin tried to improve situation
with fertility but it was too late

1936 – Stalin’s
government banned
abortions; this measure
provided a short-lived
increase of births
Introduced a medal
“mother-hero”
 The second demographic transition

 In the late 1980s and early 1990s

fertility in Russia and other FSU
countries rapidly declined
 This decline was accompanied by
increase of mortality (particularly at
working ages)
 These observations allowed some
researchers to talk about the second
demographic transition
Changes in fertility were partially
caused by structural changes
Number of
births (million)
Red – number of
births
Blue – the same
curve shifted by
26 years earlier
(superposition
of mothers’ and
daughters’
generations)
Existing explanations of fertility
drop during the 1990s
 Economic crisis (uncertainty about the
future and increasing the costs of child
rearing)
 Socio-cultural change (transition
towards more western practices of
family formation and childbearing)
 Soviet pronatalist policies in the early
1980s (benefits for women giving
birth to the 3rd child, 3-year paid
maternity leave) – accelerated births
which otherwise would happen later
 Recent Trends
 Proportion of non-marital births is
increasing – general tendency
(12% in 1985 vs 29% in 2001 in
Russia)
 Maternal age is increasing –
general tendency
 However the age of birth for the
first child remains low – no
evidence of postponing births
 Proportion of non-marital births
(%) in Kyrgyzstan by age and year
Growth of non-marital births (%)
in Russia and Ukraine
Non-marital fertility in Russia
(percent of births)
Mean age of mother
Mean age of mother in Russia and Ukraine
Fertility for women of different ages
(age-specific birth rates)
Number of children (per woman)
needed for replacement in Russia

Blue – actual
number
Red – needed after
accounting for
mortality of
mothers’ generation
Pink – needed after
accounting for
mortality of
daughters’
generation

Maternal birth cohort

 Population Momentum

(Momentum of Population Growth)

A tendency for population growth

rates to lag behind changes in age-
specific fertility and mortality rates.
Momentum operates through the
population age distribution.
 Population Momentum
Examples
 Population that has been growing rapidly for a
long time, acquires a young age distribution (with
many people in reproductive ages) that will result
in positive population growth for many decades,
even if age-specific fertility and mortality rates
imply zero population growth or even
depopulation in the very long run.

Opposite example:
 Too old societies with most people being at post-
reproductive ages will experience depopulation,
even if age-specific fertility and mortality rates
imply population growth in the very long run.