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OPEC Says No… Crude Oil says GO!

OPEC Says No… Crude Oil says GO!

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Published by Joseph James
We got news from OPEC at 915am this morning which gave us a lot of opportunity to trade before 10am.
Price action was moving so quickly that I took 2 losing trades right off the open…yikes.
We noticed that price action was too whippy to trade, so I sat on hands until we felt more comfortable.
The next 4 trades were all BIG winners and we ended our day in the green with over 140 ticks of profit.
• What told me to sit on hands?
• What told me to start trading again?
Click here to see how our morning prep told us exactly what to do, and when to do it
Thanks for all the feedback on this new format for our newsletter, see you in the room tomorrow!
We got news from OPEC at 915am this morning which gave us a lot of opportunity to trade before 10am.
Price action was moving so quickly that I took 2 losing trades right off the open…yikes.
We noticed that price action was too whippy to trade, so I sat on hands until we felt more comfortable.
The next 4 trades were all BIG winners and we ended our day in the green with over 140 ticks of profit.
• What told me to sit on hands?
• What told me to start trading again?
Click here to see how our morning prep told us exactly what to do, and when to do it
Thanks for all the feedback on this new format for our newsletter, see you in the room tomorrow!

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Published by: Joseph James on Jun 09, 2011
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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05/12/2014

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Schooloftrade.com Market Commentary 6.9.11
We begin our day reviewing the news. We know today has3 phases of crude oilinventories, which means we needto be aware the market personality will be transitioning twice today.We also know that OPEC has their meeting, which will have everyone waiting to hear the news from OPEC.We also know that the Beige Book is later this afternoon which will be on the minds of traders as well because it isdirectly related to the FOMC announcement in 2 weeks.Don¶t forget, we have the G8 summit later in the week. Shouldn¶t be too bad on volume today, but so we are aware.The news tells me to be selective when trading crude oil, I can¶t expect a golden lunch, so get in, get out early andtake your money to the bank.
845am est
We begin with the dollar index 06-11 contract.Our 89range chart shows the DX at the lows of the wedge (buy the lows) and we are trading in a very distinctsideways range from 74.090 down to 73.540.
This tells me«
We¶re at the lows of the wedge, so the higher % move will be the LONG side. We want to buy the lows of anyrange.It may also trade sideways if the market lacks direction/confidence in the future.It may also drop to the lows of the range.
All three scenarios require me to plan for them:
-
 
Dollar drops = buying pullbacks on the markets we trade.-
 
Dollar Rises = selling retracements as prices fall-
 
Dollar Sideways = buying the lows and selling the highs of the range we are in. Treat it as an INSIDE day.Remember the 89range chart shows me the BIG PICTURE, and it does NOT show me what the price action is doingRIGHT NOW.I¶m a day trader, I need to know what¶s happening NOW. What does the 13range chart tell me?The dollar has reacted with a bullish tone to the news from Bernanke last night.Bullish dollar = bearish crude, gold, euro, Russell, etc.
O
ur plan of attack on the Dollar:
-
 
We anticipate a rising dollar, so looking to sell retracements, sell price reversals at resistance will be thehighest percentage today.-
 
This may change quite easily, if the dollar begins to trade sideways.-
 
If the dollar drops back down to the lows again, we then begin to look for buying opportunities at support.
91
5am est
 
A
s we prepare for the day ahead, we must wait through the US Market open at 930am
L
ets plan our attack on Crude
O
il Futures:8
9
range chart shows me«
-
 
Price Wedge-
 
Sideways Range-
 
Bear Price Channel-
 
BMT above us-
 
100.00 is above us
3
4range chart tells us«
-
 
Started as an inside day-
 
Broke new highs after OPEC news and became outside day, we will be looking for the transition back to aninside day if price falls.-
 
BMT is below us, which will act like a magnet-
 
OPEN is below us, also a price magnet
O
ur plan of attack is as follows:
-
 
We are going to be extra selective in the trades we take today-
 
OPEC news and Inventory news will have the personality changing frequently, so be careful.
I
f price rises:
-
 
Sell first at resistance, buying after we see new higher highs and with a pullback -
 
We do NOT buy the highs, we buy pullbacks-
 
I will sell the highs of the wedge 101.50,-
 
Sell the resistance overhead at 102.90, 103.39-
 
We don¶t have a lot more levels to work with, so we can also use the
A
B=CD pattern to find easy profittargets as price rises.
I
f price falls:
-
 
Im buying at support first, then selling retracements with new lower lows-
 
I am not selling at the lows, use a retracement.-
 
I¶m selling below 100.90, below the 100.65-
 
We expect to make all of our profit as it falls back down, so look for new lows and sell the retracements.-
 
A
void the big round number of 100.00-
 
Take profit at the BMT and avoid trading at the BMT 99.95-
 
Sell below 99.85 (highs of the range before)-
 
I will buy the 89r trigger at 99.41, and buy the lows of the range at 98.05
9
30
am est
We get news from OPEC that they have NOT reached a decision.

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