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San Mateo County Real Estate Report - May 2011

San Mateo County Real Estate Report - May 2011

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Published by Gwen Wang
San Mateo County Real Estate Market update for May 2011
San Mateo County Real Estate Market update for May 2011

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Published by: Gwen Wang on Jun 10, 2011
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06/10/2011

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The Real Estate Report
local market trends
S
AN
M
ATEO
C
OUNTY
 
Keller Williams Realty
505 Hamilton Ave., Ste. 100Palo Alto, CA 94301(650) 454-8568(415) 225-4936Gwen.Wang@kw.comhttp://www.MenloRealEstate.comhttp://homes-for-sale-PaloAlto-today.com
DRE #01393647
Gwen Wang
 
Gwen Wang | Gwen.Wang@kw.com | (650) 454-8568
month in a row, month-over-month. Year-over-year, the median price was up 10%.Sales of single-family, re-sale homes rose for the sixth month in a row in May. Home saleswere up 5.4% compared to May 2010.
S
ALES
 
MOMENTUM
fell two points to +2.
P
ENDING
 
MOMENTUM
a harbinger of future sales, while still positive,has been trending downward. Last month thenumber was +4, down four points from April.
P
RICING
 
MOMENTUM
actually rose last month, gaining one point to0.
M
ORE
 
STATISTICS
Year-over-year, home inventory was down2.8%.The sales price to list price ratio gained 0.1 of a point to 98.6%.
Two years talk of phantom inventory was all therage. There are three components to phantominventory: first, all the property the banks ownedthat hadn’t been put on the market, second, all theproperty on which a notice of default had been filedbut had not yet gone back to the banks, finally,there are strategic defaults. These are the propertyowners who are underwater, meaning they owemore on the property than it is currently worth andhave decided to walk away.Last month, JPMorgan Chase analysts determinedthat strategic defaults were declining. In their analy-sis, they found 60% of all defaults were strategic bythe middle of 2009, and that this had declined to30%.It is important to note these are national figures.In San Mateo County, notices of default and notic-es of sales have been zig zaging for the past year.In April, both were at 13-month lows. For full de-tails, see our article on page 3.
C
OUNTY
S
TATISTICS
The median price for single-family, re-salehomes in San Mateo County rose for the fifth
Phantom Inventory Redux
Pending sales were up 4.9% last month com-pared to May 2010.
I
N
 
THE
 
CONDO
 
MARKET
the median price was off 12.6% compared tolast May.The average price was down 7.5% year-over-year.Condos sales plunged 30.8% year-over-year.Pending sales were down 13.6% year-over-year.Inventory was down 2.8% year-over-year.Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are thesame. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call.
J
UNE
/J
ULY
2011
Inside This Issue
>
L
OCAL
M
 ARKET
T
RENDS
.....................
1
 
>
M
ORTGAGE
R
 ATE
O
UTLOOK
...............
2
 
>
H
OME
S
TATISTICS
..............................
2
 
>
F
ORECLOSURE
S
TATS
........................
3
 
>
C
ONDO
S
TATISTICS
............................
3
 
>
 A
NNUAL
T
 ABLES
.................................
4
 
 
May 11Apr 11May 10
Median Price:825,000$ 725,000$ 750,000$  Average Price:1,040,340$ 935,044$ 976,949$ Home Sales:413362392Inventory:1,2331,2081,269Sale/List Price Ratio:98.6%98.5%99.9%Days on Market:545741Days of Inventory:909797
Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%06FMAMJJASOND07FMAMJJASOND08FMAMJJASOND09FMAMJJASOND10FMAMJJASOND11FMAM
San Mateo County Homes:
Sales MomentumSalesPendingMedian
© 2011 rereport.com
 
The Real Estate Report
Page 2
Mortgage Rate Outlook 
3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%01-0504-0507-0510-0501-0604-0607-0610-0601-0704-0707-0710-0701-0804-0807-0810-0801-0904-0907-0910-0901-1004-1007-1010-1001-1104-11
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
The chart above shows the Nationalmonthly average for 30-year fixedrate mortgages as compiled byHSH.com. The average includes mort-gages of all sizes, including conforming,"expanded conforming," and jumbo.
May 27, 2011
--HSH.com's broad-market mortgagetracker -- our weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) -- found that the overall average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages slipped back by two morebasis points this week, landing at an average of 4.88%, a fresh 2011 low.FHA-backed 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are drivingsales of homes to first-time homebuyers, and alsogiving low-equity refinancers an option to pursue.Rates for these product also slipped back by twobasis points to finish the week at 4.49%.Given the wide differential in interest rates, at leastsome borrowers should be considering hybrid 5/1 ARMs; whose a five-year fixed periods now average just 3.49%, down three hundredths of a percentagepoint from last week. Certainly, there are savings tobe had for borrowers willing to accept some futureinterest-rate risk.Of course, folks without jobs don't buy homes. Itwould appear that even folks with jobs are stayingaway, too. New Home Sales did bounce 7.2% higher in April when compared against March, but the323,000 annualized rate of sale was certainly nothingto get excited about, since something on the order of triple that would be closer to normal. Inventories hasfallen to just 6.5 months available, and the 175,000actual units on the market is the lowest figure in al-most 50 years. Eventually, when demand for newhomes does return, a strong spate of homebuilding isto be expected. Here's hoping it comes sooner thanlater, but 2012 seems to be the earliest at this pointfor the turn in homebuilding. As to what happens, we'll need to wait and see. For now, mortgage rates are even more favorable thanthey have been at any time in 2011. If you can, itmight be a good time to get your purchase or re-finance done reasonably soon. Next week, we getboth end-of-the-month and first-of the-month infor-mation, including the employment report. It's a holi-day-shortened week, and there doesn't seem to be alikelihood of a big economic surprise on the horizon,so mortgage rates will probably continue to drift.
CitiesMedianAverageSalesPendInvenDOISP/LPMedAveSales Pend2Inven
County,,,,.%.%.%.%.%-.% Atherton5,250,000$ 4,420,400$ 5113219297.3%30.8%17.1%-16.70.0%-25.6%Belmont,,,.%.%.%-.-.%-.%Burlingame,,,,.%.%.%.%.%-.%Daly City457,500$ 462,154$ 44961238498.9%-16.8%-14.833.3%20.0%43.0%El Granada,,.%-.%-..%-.%-.%East Palo Alto,,.%.%.%-.-.%-.%Foster City941,500$ 975,955$ 1114318596.8%-6.9%-4.437.5%-30.0%121.4%Hillsborough,,,,.%-.%-..%.%-.%Half Moon Bay,,.%.%.%.%-.%.%Millbrae848,000$ 937,089$ 1521316299.9%6.0%9.1%36.4%16.7%6.9%Menlo Park,,,,.%.%.%.%.%-.%Montara,,,.%n/an/an/an/an/aMoss Beach505,000$ 505,000$ 24913594.3%-24.6%-24.6100.0%100.0%-47.1%Pacifica,,.%-.%-..%-.%-.%Portola Valley,,,,.%-.%-..%.%-.%Redwood City754,573$ 817,247$ 40861329998.1%6.3%5.3%-27.34.9%-5.7%Redwood Shores955,000$ 955,000$ 11310300101.1%-0.9%-8.0-87.585.7%-16.7%San Bruno,,.%-.%-.-.-.%-.%San Carlos957,500$ 1,007,550$ 27505763100.5%10.1%4.1%35.0%25.0%7.5%San Mateo834,000$ 904,512$ 431051218498.7%11.2%-0.6-17.38.2%5.2%S. San Francisco,,.%-.%-..%.%.%Woodside,,,,.%-.%-..%.%.%
San Mateo County - May 2011
Single-Family Homes% Change from Year Before
PricesPrices
 
Table Definitions _______________ 
Median Price
The price at which 50% of priceswere higher and 50%were lower.
Average Price
Add all prices and divide by thenumber of sales.
SP/LP
Sales price to list price ratio or theprice paid for the property divided bythe asking price.
DOI
Days of Inventory, or how manydays it would take to sell all theproperty for sale at the current rateof sales.
Pend
Property under contract to sell thathasn’t closed escrow.
Inven
Number of properties actively forsale as of the last day of the month.
Page 3
Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure pro-cess, in San Mateo County plunged 42.3% in April fromMarch. Year-over-year, notices were down a whopping34.8%.Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auc-tion, and serve as the homeowner's final notice beforesale, were down 18.1% year-over-year, and down15.3% from March. After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there areonly three possible outcomes. First, the sale can becancelled for reasons that include a successful loanmodification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal re-quirement to re-file the notice after extended postpone-ments. Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, thebank will place the opening bid. If a third party, typicallyan investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the
F
ORECLOSURE
 
STATISTICS
 
property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will goback to the bank.In February, cancellations were up 23.5% year-over-year, and up 15.9% from March.Properties going back to the bank were down in Aprilfrom March by 10.8%. Year-over-year, properties goingback to the back increased 4.6%.The total number of homes that have had a notice of default filed decreased by 16.2% in April compared to April 2010.The total number of homes scheduled for sale declinedby 15.1% year-over-year Unfortunately, the total number of homes owned by thebank was up 36.2% year-over-year. Ouch!
CitiesMedianAverageSalesPendInvenDOISP/LPMedAveSales Pend2Inven
County,,.%-.%-.-.-.%-.%Burlingame,,.%-.%.%.%-.%-.%Daly City,,.%-.%-.-..%.%oster ty,,.-.-.-.-..Menlo Park,,.%-.%-.-..%-.%Redwood City,,.%-.%-.-..%-.%Redwood Shores,,.%.%.%.%-.%-.%San Bruno,,.%-.%-..%.%-.%San Carlos,,.%-.%-.-..%-.%San Mateo,,.%.%.%-.-.%.%S. San Francisco,,.%-.%-.-.-.%.%
San Mateo County - May 2011
Condos/Townhomes% Change from Year Before
PricesPrices
100150200250300350400450500$100$300$500$700$900$1,100$1,300$1,50007FMAMJJASOND08FMAMJJASOND09FMAMJJASOND10FMAMJJASOND11FMAM
   S   i  n  g   l  e  -   f  a  m   i   l  y   H  o  m  e   S  a   l  e  s   M  e   d   i  a  n   &   A  v  e  r  a  g  e   P  r   i  c  e  s
San Mateo County Homes
-Prices & Sales
(3-month moving average—prices in $000's)020406080100120140160$100$200$300$400$500$600$70007FMAMJJASOND08FMAMJJASOND09FMAMJJASOND10FMAMJJASOND11FMAM
   C  o  n   d  o   S  a   l  e  s   M  e   d   i  a  n   &   A  v  e  r  a  g  e   P  r   i  c  e  s
San Mateo County Condos
-Prices & Sales
(3-month moving average—prices in $000's)

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