Unofficial Translation. "SHOKUN" August 1996 edition.

(By KUSANO, Atsushi, Professor of Keio University)

"DISGUSTED WITH THE VIEW TO HEROINE SUU KYI"

With the attitude of not listening any criticism to her, she can be an activist but not a politician. The residence of Mrs.Aung San Suu Kyi was in a groomed garden surrounded by natural green. After we went in the gate, we could see an old house on left side, which seemed not maintained well. There were no guard men around the entrance either. It made us confuse as if we wandered into some ruin. We were ushered into a big drawing room where several pictures were hanged on the wall. When an old butler open the door to hall, Mrs. Suu Kyi came in with dark green dress and stood erect in front of us, At beginning, she looked a little offended. No wonder, we came late from the promised time, despite of the reputation that Japanese people are punctual. However, we were overwhelmed with her beauty and power. I wondered how should I start questions which may make her unpleasant. 1 thought this is so-called the Charismatic character of leaders, and could understand the reason why Myanmar people are moved by her charm. One of my colleagues professor KOJIMA, Tomoyuki shake hands with her and apologized our late arrival. She smiled at us and sit on her chair casually. About one year already has passed since she was released from her house-arrest. Then, first of all, I wished to know what she is thinking about the present state of Myanmar, so I asked it to her. May be she was already asked similar questions often, she answered simply and conclusively without any hesitation. "No advancement at all." "They are still arresting members of our side (National League for Democracy = NLD. Hereinafter refer as NLD). Some of them were sentenced heavy penalties. The living conditions of the people is awful too. Because the government's purchasing price of rice went down, so farmer's income is not increasing. Also, the influence of inflation to the daily living is not small. In other words, poor become poorer and rich become richer." As I surmised, it was a severe criticism to the military government. I don't say the military government side is all correct, but I believe the stubborn attitude of Mrs. Suu Kyi's side also has some responsibility to the present deadlock situation. Since I had such opinion, I felt some uneasiness to the evolution of this interview. Before the noon of May 2nd, the interview with Mrs. Suu Kyi at the drawing room of her residence, where she had been under house-arrest for 5 years, begun like this. About 2 hours before we called on her, we were at the expansion work site of Yangon International Airport. There were 50/60 or more weather-beaten bulldozers and concrete-mixers. Beside them a halfly finished control tower stood sorrowfully. This airport expansion works started by yen-loan from Japan, and when about 15% of the works finished, the coup d'etat broke out and the aid from Japan was suspended. The project itself was a simple one, and there were no problems of removal of' residents which often becomes troubles in ODA to other developing countries. It is Just extend from 2,500 meters long runway to 3,400 meters long so that jumbo jet planes can land and taking-off. 1

Although there are an agreement between the Military government and the contractor Taisei Construction Co. to resume the works, but response of the Japanese government is quite deliberate in resumption of the works with the consideration on problems of Mrs. Suu Kyi as well as the present situation of human rights and democratization. According to the field supervisor of the construction company, even 8 years has passed after the works suspended, preservation of the construction site is surprisingly good. We are not engineers ourselves but we can see that clearly. We have a lot of experiences to visit the site of aid, and I think if this was the other developing countries, some machine parts might be stolen or the equipments were often used for other Purposes. I believed it is a sign of strong expectation of this country to the resumption of aid from Japan. I have a reason why I set Mrs. Suu Kyi against ODA here, because this is the most symbolic matter to discuss the problems between Japan and Myanmar. Japanese goverrment is carrying on it's policy with a delicate balance between the military government and Mrs. Suu Kyi. Mrs. Aung San Suu Kyi is known well in Japan as "The heroine of tragedy, fighting and struggling in adversity." The Mainichi Shimbun serialized her memoirs and many other news medias have been taking the role to make her good image and report information of only antigovernment side. I also pay a respect to her pride as a revolutionalist and her strong conviction to carry through own will. But it does not mean we fully understood the present Myanmar by only with that. I do not agree that Japanese diplomacy rotate only around Mrs. Suu Kyi. At present, the diagram of "The military government equal evil and Mrs. Sun Kyi equal good." is fixed in Japan. But, now I wish to discuss whether such interpretation is absolutely correct or not from different angle. (Only Military Government Could Obtain Excellent Result) Now, let's take a look back the progress which will be the major premise of our discussion. On September 18, '88, the socialism system in former Union of Burma broke down, and democratization movements raised in the country, which resulted a riot. Then the military forces pulled a coup d'etat and the present military government was established. While these confusion were going on in the country, Mrs. Suu Kyi returned home from overseas after 30 years to take care of her sick mother. Then, she became the leader of democratization movements. The military forces put her under the house-arrest on the charge of conspiracy to the antigovernment movements. The military forces organized the State Law and Order Restoration Council (hereinafter refer as SLORC). They called a General Election in May '90 with multi party system, and promised to the people when a new government is established by the election, they will transfer the Power to the new government. But, because the unexpected result of overwhelming victory of NLD ifi the election, they broke the promise with the people. Instead of that they propose to establish the "National Convention" which organized with representatives from each ethnic minor races and from every field of the people to establish new constitution. In January '93, the first session of the National Convention took place, but still there are no sign of establishment of the new constitution yet. On the other hand, in the last fall, all representatives from NLD withdrew from the National Convention, because they said that they were not given the right to speak freely. As you can see here, while keeping Mr. Suu Kyi under the house arrest, the military government ignored result of the general election and keep holding the power. Further more, they arrested more than 2,000 people to restrain the antigovernment movements (Later they started to release these people slowly). I can not help to say this is -unreasonable and questionable as the legitimacy of the government. However, at the same time I should say that the government actually ruling Myanmar and also there are facts which only military government could obtain such excellent results. They made amicable settlements with 13 different ethnic minor races, which had been a big cause of political confusion of this country, and as of May '96, only large armed group left is Karen National Union. The notorious narcotic king Khun Sa was caught too.

Best way to stabilize the government in any developing country is level-up of the people's living condition. Therefore, the military government took open market and economy policy, such as liberalization of private foreign trade and accepting foreign investments. At the same time, they abolished the monopoly of state-run enterprises. As the result, the economic growing rate jumped up to 9.3% in '92 from the minus growth in '91, then it slowed down for a while, but again in '95, it reached 9.7%. Of course, there are many problems. For instance, insufficient infrastructure such as electric power supply, roads, communication systems, etc., Daily realistic converting rate of currency and not enough assistance and support from foreign countries by not clear political situation. These are the present barrier for economic development of Myanmar. Meanwhile, the relation between Japan and Myanmar also has changed. The history of relations between two countries is long and delicate. As everyone know well, early part of the Pacific War, Japanese government Supported the independent movements of General Aung San who was the father of Mrs. Sun Kyi and his commrades. At the end of the war, the general led anti-government movements against the Japanese ambition to rule Burma. But there are still strong spiritual tie with Japan. After the war, diplomatic relations of two countries restored and still continuing the friendly relations. Both Yen loan and grant of Japanese ODA to Myatimar are also increased smoothly. At the zenith of Japanese aid to Myanmar, more than 70% of the total foreign aids to Myanmar was from Japan. Right after the coup d'etat in '88, Japanese government stopped aid completely. From February '89, the aid was resumed because SLORC was acknowledged internationally and Japanese government also recognized the new government. But, Mrs. Suu Kyi was put under the house-arrest and Japanese government concluded that there are remarkable infringement on human rights and democratization. So, the government resumed some projects partly, but for new projects they were suspended practically except urgent and humanitarian one. Then, in '92, the Kaifu Cabinet announced 4 fundamental rules of ODA. So, when giving ODA, Japanese government had to consider about "Situation of military expenses", "Import and export of weapons", "Human rights and democratization", and "Promotion of market economy" of the country to be supplied ODA since then. With these fundamental rules, the resumption aid became much more difficult, while giving technical cooperation in the fields of only forestry and irrigation. In the fall of '95, with the humanitarian view point to support the chronic shortage of nurses in Myanmar, Japanese government decided to grant the function expanding projects of nurse school. The building of the school and it's equipments are the one Japanese government already supplied in '83. So, the airport expansion project which I mentioned at the beginning is out of resumed projects. (The Economy Making Bicycles as Index) Let's talk about the interview with Mrs. Sun Kyi again. At the beginning of the interview, she pointed out "The gap between rich and poor is spreading.'' We asked her that definitely how they are suffering from poverty. Then, she said "Farmers eat twice a day and some of them only once a day. They are drew out for forced labours. On the other hand, among privileged government officers unfair favoritism and patronage to their relatives are going on." In other words, farmers are all exploited. It is true that people are mobilized to labour service for about 10 days a year for public works in Myanmar. This is a common custom in socialist countries or despotic countries, but if it is busy farming season, farmers will complain about it. On the other hand, for the government which is aiming at economic development as the largest target, some large scaled construction works, such as irrigations, dams, roads and others are essential. We can easily imagine that the burden on the people becomes heavy. However, it is sure that farmer's living condition is improving though it is slow. According the President of Yangon Institute of Economy who is criticizing severely both the present government and NLD, 4 years ago there were two or three bicycles in an average village, but now a village has 50 bicycles, and many TV and radios appeares on the market, and even video tape rental stores opened. Incidentally, the government made year of '96 as 3

"Visit Myanmar Year", and enforced the policy to attract tourists from overseas. So, the construction works of hotel by the investments from Singapore and other countries are going on rapidly. It is not difficult to criticize the series of these phenomena as 'The beginning of physical prosperity'. I believe Mrs. Suu Kyi is standing with this view point. But this is the country discussing the effect of economic growth by making the number of bicycles as the index. I have no nerve or courage to force evaluation of western style democratization and human rights to this country and give lecture to the people "Do not make same mistake of modernization as we did". Regarding to the expansion of the gap' of rich and poor among the farmers, I can build up a counterargument as follows. By the induction of market economy policy, the amount of rice purchased by the government reduced to about 20% instead of whole rice production, and farmers now can sell the rest of the rice to the market freely. During the socialism economy days, the government purchased all rice production from farmers with low prices, and farmers lost their volition on rice production. Then, some farmers started to donate rice to temples, because they thought it is better than selling to the government with such low price. It is said that rich temples increased by that in those days. I heard that under the new policy the rice donation to temples are decreasing, which means farmers begun to get desire on rice production. Naturally, economic development can not advance straight forward. First of all, farmers who can produce more rice and sell it more became rich. May be there are some farmers who left behind by some reasons among them. But as the economic growing is progressing, the number of these rich farmers is also increased. Farmers who were poor became rich now, and on the other hand, some farmers left behind are still poor. I believe this is the real situation of 'Expansion of the gap between rich and poor' at present. As Mrs. Suu Kyi said, there are a possibility that leading staffs of the government are enjoying their privileges and getting economic profit. I heard many rumours that some cabinet members of the military government are getting bribe from enterprises and sending them to the banks in Switzerland or Thai. May be this is partly true, because the military government itself is trying to enforce strict official discipline. In this point, I think her criticize is correct. However, can't we think this is a kind of cost while a developing country is growing economically ? Except Singapore, we can see same things in Indonesia, Thai and others where active economic development are going on. Also, there are the fact that recently, when WTO tried to make the problems of bribe to a subject of discussion the all Southeast Asian countries opposed it. The criticism of Mrs. Suu Kyi to the government never stopped during the interview, then, NLD led by her has any particular policy different from the military government ? Any special policy which will be able to save poor people ? Her answer was clear but it was nothing but only general remarks and principles. Only thing she said was "We are aiming at pure and fair competition.'' Then, professor KOJIMA asked her "But, under the military government, the economy is growing up tolerably, isn't it ? I believe the present government policy has changed the planning economy in Ne Win days to the market economy at present". But her answer was persistently negative. "I do not deny the economics is growing, but as a matter of fact, the economic Policy of the present government is the imitation of our NLD's policy in wrong form."

What is the 'In wrong form'? Is she pointing the corruption of the government such as enjoying their privileges? Anyway, we could not hear any original NLD economic plan, different from the present govertiment's from her. The most of problems under the present government are unavoidable thing for a developing country to make economic development. By only crying out loudly the western type evaluations such as human right and democratization, which Mrs. Sun Kyi learned while she was staying in England, none of problems can be solved. As a matter of fact, Myanmar government knew that too. One of Myanmar journalists explained to us that the content of the popularity of Mrs. Suu Kyi are 25% of her own charm, 25% of image of her father General Aung San, and 50% of anti-military feelings of the people. If it is true, the most effective way for the present government to appease the anti-military feeling of the people is that, have them feel the economical well-off actually. From this view point, I believe there will be neither establishment of new constitution nor transfer the power before the government get enough self-confidence in economic field. In every week end, Mrs. Suu Kyi is delivering speech in front of her house to.more than 1,000 audiences. It is said that this speech becomes more radical week by week, and the military government ignores it completely. The confrontation between two will be stronger. (She has Strong Discontent to Japan) Now, has Mrs. Suu Kyi any measure to change the present situation? Her answer was clear again. "Without the international pressure, there will be no change." and she added that the Japanese government is not understanding the real situation. Her attitude was a quite offensive, and as if she wished to say that all western countries are very cooperative to the promotion of democratization and human rights, but why only Japanese government does not support her. It seemed to me that she has strong discontent to Japan. She said even how economic situation is improved it does not mean political situation become better. Also she designated the name of a certain Japanese trade house and blamed it that the Japanese enterprises are making money by taking advantage of Myanmar. Then, she told us that an American business woman (according to Mrs. Suu Kyi, this American woman is a real suspicious character) who obtained permission from the government to process prawns and planning to do the business with a Japanese trade house. She criticized it and blamed that Japanese enterprises approach the government with bribe and make a profit. As the result it makes the military government live longer, she said. So far as she keeps this kind of image on Japanese enterprises, I can understand she has severe criticism on the aid from Japan. If after she gets some concrete evidences and blame them, then I have nothing to say, but unfortunatelly, her criticism is only an emotional one based on her fixed idea. On the way back from the Yangon International Airport, we visited the Institute of Nursing (hereinafter refer as ION). I saw many aid projects in different developing countries before, and I had the impression that this project of ION is a successful one compare with other projects. Based on this fact, professor KOJIMA asked her, "Don't you think Japanese ODA is useful for your country ?" But the asnwer was negative. She just said "No, only Japanese enterprises are making profit by that." I wondered if she does not know every foreign loan in the world has condition that enterprises of the country of the loan can get the order of the project. I showed her a pamphlet of the ION. Again she showed an amazing reaction. She said "This project is not completed yet." 5

Probably, she knows only the expansion proj - act which started in the last fall. As I stated before, in '80s, this original project was completed, and now about 250 nurses graduate from the institute in every year. I pointed out it to her. For a moment she was at a loss what to say, but returned the words immediately. "Problem is how to choose students." I thought she wished to say that young girls only from rich families can enter the ION. May be there are some farmers who do not know even such school is existing, but in every year 3,000 to 4,000 candidates apply for admission. It is more than 10 times of the capacity of the school. I showed her a sheet of paper which I received from ION, and told her "This paper says that students are coming from all over the country, and after they graduate, they return to local areas." But she just said "Anyone can make such thing (the paper I showed to her)" I could not back down, so I continued "Mrs. Sun Kyi, why don't you visit ION by yourself. I strongly suggest it." "Before that, you better go to some hospital in the city without pre-arrangement by other people to look the real state of it," she said. (Relating with these conversation, I have an additional report. By her advice, we called at a hospital in Yangon city without appointment. As far as human rights concern, it was far better than hospitals in other developing countries). She told us, the present state of hospitals are real miserable. There are not enough medicines. Doctors and nurses ask tips to patients. The government budget for medical treatments is only 5% and military expenses is 60%. Then, she should support this project which seems useful for improvement of medical treatment of Myanmar with the view point of humanity. But she did not, because she has the opinion of "Absolutely, we can not admit aid from Japanese government, because it is helping the government which is giving oppression on the Myanmar people." So far as she is standing on such view point, the resumption of expansion project of the Yangon International Airport must be out of question. Her evaluation to the military government was just as we surmised, but we did not expected that she has so strong criticism to Japan. It is not only toward the government but also to private enterprises. Anyhow, if the confrontation between the government and the antigovernment side continue like this, we are afraid it will never be solved and going to be worse and worse. We were thinking such a thing and left from Mrs. Suu Kyi's residence wordlessly. As we worried at that time, in the end of May, the military government made preventive arrests of NLD members, because they tried to hold a grand meeting. Against the military government which increasing the stability by economic development, Mrs. Suu Kyi's side was drove into a tight corner. So, I think may be she wrote a scenario which have some of NLD members be arrested to get stronger support from the international society. (Not Qualified as a Politician) I know I should not reach conclusion so easily with only a short time interview with her, but at least I could confirm her nature as a leader through the discussion about Japanese ODA. I could find out that she is a capable 'Activist', but not qualified as a 'Politician' who can make compromise sometimes as a necessary evil. But I have 6

no intention to deny her charismatic character, and also her opinion that the present government has no legitimacy. For keep balance of two side, I wish to say that the military government announced the percentage of polling score of NLD as only 38.1%, but this figure was the percentage to the number of whole electors entitled to vote and the real percentage of the electors who actually voted to NLD was 59.9%. I don't say they told a lie but they should realize this kind of makeshift explanation Will make the reputation of the military government drop internationally. On the other hand, Mrs. Suu Kyi also is making mistakes. I am afraid those who close to her are only giving information which reinforce her way to think, or may be she does not accept any informations against her opinion. Her evaluation of Japanese ODA is a typical example. However, despite of strong claims of democratization and human rights on the government level of western countries, especially America, their enterprises are spreading of investments to Myanmar at early. If we look the statistics of investments to Myanmar after December '93, we may find out British and American investments are far more than Japan. We can say same thing oil the amount of investments. U.K., France and U.S.A. are much more than Japan. When we compare the amount of permitted investments from the end of '94 to the end of '95, investments from U.S.A. increased 20%, but in case of Japan, the figure was only 5%. As a matter of fact, the rate of investments from Europe and America to the total amount reached 43%. In the field of natural gas development, the Almost (phonetic) - a joint venture of U.K. and France - already constructed a gas turbine power genera station. American Pepsi-Cola Company also successes their business in Myanmar. Although they cancelled the joint venture with Myanmar enterprise but still sending raw materials. Frankly speaking, European countries and America are so-called double tongued. Is Mrs. Suu Kyi who criticized Japan closing her eyes intentionally to these facts. More important thing is that she emphasized "International pressure is necessary". Because the international society need to get information about present situation of Myanmar as much as possible. But I regret to say that the propaganda of the present government is very poor, so almost all the people do not know the good results of it's economic policy and the amicable settlement with minor races. On the contrary, sending out informations of Mrs. Sun Kyi's side with the cooperation of western countries' and Japanese news medias is perfect. In Japan mainly information from Mrs. Suu Kyi's side is over flooded now. Such unbalanced situation of information is disturbing our cool judgement. Then, what Japanese should do to the yen loan such as for the expansion works of airport which is under suspension now. The present policy of Japanese government is appeal the importance of human rights and democratization to D the present government by dialogues, then while watching improvement of the situation, examine each pending ODA projects and other useful new projects for the people and carry them into effect. With this view point, we should determine the resumption of the airport expansion project for safety and indirect promotion of democratization by increasing exchange with NCO and foreign countries. But actually it is riot going on this way yet. Domestically, the attitudes of the coalition government of LDP, SPJ and Sakigake toward Myanmar is so severe and rigid. Especially in Sakigake. One of it's leading staffs HATOYAMA, Yukio was the Chief of the Secretary Bureau of "Parliamentary League to Demand the Release of Mrs. Suu Kyi from the House Arrest." and also they have strong connection pipes with antigovernment side. In addition to that, among members of Sakigake and SPJ, there are strong opinions to reconsider Japanese ODA policy. We can say same thing to the Shinshin-to party. In last year, these parties submitted a bill of New Basic ODA Law to the Diet and tried to drag in other Diet members. While Mrs. Sun Kyis strategy to the international journalism is going on successfully, I am afraid that there are no politician who of New Basic ODA Law to the Diet and tried to drag in other Diet members. While Mrs Suu Kyi's strategy to the international journalism is going on successfully, I am afraid that there are no politician who try to support military government because it is not favourable to their election. 7

(Constructive Engagement of Southeast ASEAN) However, Southeast ASEAN countries including Singapore, Thai and Malaysia at heads of them are supporting the present government and at the same time they are trying to help it's market economization too. This is their constructive engagement policy to avoid the isolation of Myanmar. Naturally, ASEAN is trying to prevent Myanmar is approaching to China to closer. Myanmar is scheduled to be a member of ASEAN in 2000. ASEAN also planning to get Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos to it's members and to be the Southeast Asian Community like the EU in future. Since Japan is one of Asian countries, we should positively take the role to transfer our economic and social experiences and lead Myanmar to more democratized country without feeling too much constraint to America and European countries. The big feature of international society after the cold war is the economic struggles like the competition between Japan and America in Asian market. In this situation, how we should function the Japanese ODA, especially yen loan: (1) Maintain present situation and apply 4 ODA Principles depend on the situation of each individual country (not make the judgement on the situation of human right with a common standard to every country. Make the judgement with standard whether the problem was improved or not in that particular country). (2) or reconsider the ODA from the beginning as a total Japanese diplomatic policy (for example, make ODA only for technical cooperation and grant cooperation ) and define the standard an the content and application of the Principle. (3) or with the consideration that only economic development of the developing country can pmwteit's democratization and moderate the application of' the Principles. We need to examine it. it needs a nation wide discussion on the policy toward Myanmar including Mrs. Sun Kyi, because it will show us the future of Japanese aid policy. Actually, we have a problem of suspending yen loan to China after they resumed the nuclear test.