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Crude Oil Revenge Trade cost me 50 ticks, don’t make this mistake tomorrow

Crude Oil Revenge Trade cost me 50 ticks, don’t make this mistake tomorrow

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Published by Joseph James
Wacky Wednesday was EXTRA-wacky this morning as we traded Crude Oil for over 190 ticks of profit on a very challenging day.
The day started very slowly, and the first 4 trades I took were scratches, I even took a first trade loss on Gold, putting me in a pretty good hole early this morning.
I was able to dig myself out of the whole after our 1030am news, but I made a critical mistake at the PHOD around 1130am which cost me more than 50 ticks of profit.
I made my daily goal today, but we learned a valuable lesson in revenging trading that you will easily learn from.
Wacky Wednesday was EXTRA-wacky this morning as we traded Crude Oil for over 190 ticks of profit on a very challenging day.
The day started very slowly, and the first 4 trades I took were scratches, I even took a first trade loss on Gold, putting me in a pretty good hole early this morning.
I was able to dig myself out of the whole after our 1030am news, but I made a critical mistake at the PHOD around 1130am which cost me more than 50 ticks of profit.
I made my daily goal today, but we learned a valuable lesson in revenging trading that you will easily learn from.

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Categories:Business/Law, Finance
Published by: Joseph James on Jun 16, 2011
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05/12/2014

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Schooloftrade.com Day Trading Futures Market Commentary
Wednesday--6.15.11
We begin our day with the US Dollar Index, which is seeing lots of buyers this morning after news out of Europecontributed to the fear of buying the Euro.Our 13range chart shows the strong bull price channel, which tells us price should be rising today. However, wealso know that we are at the highs of the range, we have the 89range BMT at 75.620 which will likely mean thedollar will stall and reverse.There are three scenarios today on the US Dollar Index:1. The dollar keeps rising to the highs of the channel around 75.8002. The dollar stalls at 75.620 and trades sloppy and sideways, trying to find more direction.3. The dollar reverses off these highs, feeling the selling pressure to bring it back down into the range below it, below 75.300 into the transitional area below.We then have a very simple plan of attach using the Dollar Index Futures:
 
y
 
If the dollar rises I¶mselling retracementsand selling at resistance with the markets I trade.
y
 
If the dollar trades sideways I will then look to trade INSIDE the range we are in on the markets I trade.
y
 
If the dollar drops to new lower lows I will be looking to buy at support and buy pullbacks with higher highs.830am est
We have three news events«
 
y
 
Empire State Manufacturing Survey comes out much lower than expected. (sector is slowing down for 3months now)
y
 
C
onsumer price index came out higher than expected (rising costs = inflation)
y
 
Manufacturing Sales in
C
anada are the same as expected, stable.
No
w let¶s review the Crude Oil Futures t
o
day
, and remember the3 phases of crude oil inventoriestoday.We see an
 
INSIDE DAYon the 07-11
C
rude Oil contract, above the previous lows and below the previous highs.Open and BMT are above me which will act like a price magnet.The no trade zone, 100.00 big round number and the 89range BMT are also above us, which will also be a pricemagnet.We see two distinct price channels, 1 bear and 1 bull.We recently broke new lows below the bull price channel and can see a short term bear channel has developed.
 
We also notice the 08-11 contract is starting to µsteal¶ some of our volume on the 07-11 contract.This tells us a few things«people may be exiting the current month early to push out the fear of the unknown.My plan of attack on crude oil this morning:
 
-
 
Inside day means Im looking to trade inside the range we are in. Avoid thefake-out breakouts. Sell thehighs, buy the lows, avoid the middles.-
 
We have inventories, so I will not be trading after 1015am est today, and will wait till after 1035am to enter the market.-
 
Bear price channel says to keep selling new lower lows with retracements-
 
However, the inside day tells us to be careful with trading the breakouts.-
 
Slight bearish bias, but very selective with the breakout tradeswe take.-
 
If price falls im buying at support first, and then selling retracements on the way down.-
 
If price rises im selling at resistance first, and then buying pullbacks on the way up.-
 
 Never buy the highs-
 
 Never sell the lows-
 
Avoid the middles. 
M
o
re specifically:
If price rises im selling 99.00, buying pullbacks above 99.10
 
I¶m selling the highs of the wedge around 99.20,selling the PHODat 99.69, and avoid the no trade zone above it.If price falls I¶m buying support at 98.20, I¶m being very careful around 98.00 (we saw this last week and confirmedagain very sloppy on Tuesday)As prices keep falling I¶m buying support at 97.83, 97.40, and 97.10. buying the support first (inside day) and thenwith n
 
ew lower lows thatsupport becomes resistance and we sell retracementsusing that resistance.
850am est
We take our first trade of the day on crude oil and the market clearly lacks any
 
 personalityat this time.Better to wait for the market to begin to move with consistency.We also notice that
 
ALL big money trigger linesare on top of each other. 34r, 21r, 13r, 4r, are all relatively close.This confirms that price on crude has been µflat¶ for many days consecutively.
900am est
We have long term tic flows come out lower than expected, meaning that fewer people see value in US debt (notesand bonds) We assume that¶s because a month ago the dollar was in a tailspin, and now the dollar is back risingagain so this number should improve.
We n
o
w review G
o
ld Futures
 
89range chart shows us a wedge inside of a wedge, so we will watch for price entering the smaller wedge above1528.5Sideways range(s) from 1528.5 down to 1513.0 and additional ranges from 1533.5 down to 1511.5We see the BMT is below us which will be a price magnet.Inside a bear price channel and just above the lows. Now lets use our 34range chart to plan our attack more precisely.We see sideways ranges on gold as it attempts to transition from bear channel to bull channel.Inside day on gold means sell the highs and buy the lows, avoid the fake-out breakout.BMT and the PHOD are above us, which will be a price magnet.Inside a bear price channel, and towards the highs.Inside a sideways range and in the middle.Inside the MAJOR price wedge, and near the lows.
L
ets plan
o
ur attack 
o
n g
o
ld futures t
o
day:
If price rises I¶m selling resistance first (inside day) and then with new higher highs I will then buy a pullback.As price rises I¶m selling the channel highs at 1525.0, selling the PHOD at 1529.0, and avoid the BMT at 1529.5If we make new higher highs I will then buy pullbacks above 1530.4 and sell the highs of that range at 1533.4.More locations to sell overhead (or take profit) will be at 1534.8, 1537.5, and 1539.4If prices fall im buying at support first (inside day) and then selling new lower lows with retracements.If price falls I¶m buying 1516.6 support, and then the LOD at 1514.5 and the PLOD at 1512.8, and then buying1511.4 as the range lows.More support levels to buy (or take profit) will be 1508.4 and 1504.4, 1500 is the low of the major bull pricechannel.
915am est
Industrial Production news comes out as expectedSo far today the only news out of expectations was the manufacturing survey.
945am est
Dollar is dropping off the new highs, which means we now consider buying pullbacks if we make new higher highs.The key is the OUTSIDE day on Gold. Above the PHOD on Gold we now have the DX dropping so we look to buy pullbacks,.
 
Crude Oil is n
o
t
o
utside day yet, s
o
we still want t
o
av
o
id the fake-
o
ut break 
o
ut.

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