We also notice the 08-11 contract is starting to µsteal¶ some of our volume on the 07-11 contract.This tells us a few things«people may be exiting the current month early to push out the fear of the unknown.My plan of attack on crude oil this morning:
Inside day means Im looking to trade inside the range we are in. Avoid thefake-out breakouts. Sell thehighs, buy the lows, avoid the middles.-
We have inventories, so I will not be trading after 1015am est today, and will wait till after 1035am to enter the market.-
Bear price channel says to keep selling new lower lows with retracements-
However, the inside day tells us to be careful with trading the breakouts.-
Slight bearish bias, but very selective with the breakout tradeswe take.-
If price falls im buying at support first, and then selling retracements on the way down.-
If price rises im selling at resistance first, and then buying pullbacks on the way up.-
Never buy the highs-
Never sell the lows-
Avoid the middles.
If price rises im selling 99.00, buying pullbacks above 99.10
I¶m selling the highs of the wedge around 99.20,selling the PHODat 99.69, and avoid the no trade zone above it.If price falls I¶m buying support at 98.20, I¶m being very careful around 98.00 (we saw this last week and confirmedagain very sloppy on Tuesday)As prices keep falling I¶m buying support at 97.83, 97.40, and 97.10. buying the support first (inside day) and thenwith n
ew lower lows thatsupport becomes resistance and we sell retracementsusing that resistance.
We take our first trade of the day on crude oil and the market clearly lacks any
personalityat this time.Better to wait for the market to begin to move with consistency.We also notice that
ALL big money trigger linesare on top of each other. 34r, 21r, 13r, 4r, are all relatively close.This confirms that price on crude has been µflat¶ for many days consecutively.
We have long term tic flows come out lower than expected, meaning that fewer people see value in US debt (notesand bonds) We assume that¶s because a month ago the dollar was in a tailspin, and now the dollar is back risingagain so this number should improve.
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