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THEAFGHANDilEMMA
PAKISTANISSTRATEGICCONFUSIONINTHEWESTERNTHEATRE
by:
Shahzad
MasoodRoom;
The10yearslongAmericanwarinAfghanistanistakingatumsimilartotheonetheSovietsfoughtsome30yearsago.JustliketheSoviets,tacticalvictoriesbytheUSINATOforcesinAfghanistansoonturnedintothestrategicencirclementofthealliedforcesbyAfghanresistance,whichhasadoptedanimmenselydifficulttocounter'strategyofvoid'.TheAfghanresistancehasdeniedthealliedforcesanyactualtargettohitat.TheUSINATOforcesarefightingagainstanenemythatistotallyelusivebutequallyruthless.ThisstrategyhasbeenfrustratingtheUSINATOforcessincethelast10yearsbutnowthisfrustrationhastransformedintofear,whichiscreepinginthemindsoftheinvadingforcesthatfindthemselvesencircledbyanunseenandunforgivingadversary.ThisfearoftheunseenenemyisnowdictatingtheUSINATOforces'tacticsinAfghanistan.ThereiscompletechaosintheUScampnowastheyhavefailedtosecureanystrategicgoalinAfghanistan.Infear,theUSmilitaryistakingdesperatemeasuresbyturningcounterinsurgencyopsintoanethniccleansingcampaign,whichisalsogoingtoblowintheirfacessoonerthanlater.OnthissideoftheDurandLine,PakistanhasbeencaughtinaviciouscircleduetotheprolongedAfghanconflict.PakistanhassufferedmorefatalitiesinWoTthantheonesfacedbytheUSandNATOforcescombinedinAfghanistanduringthelast10years.ButinthepresenceofthecurrentAfghanpolicy,thereisnoendinsighttothisunfortunatestringofevents.ThecurrentAfghanpolicyisanamalgamationofconfusionandchaoswhichhasbeenunderminingPakistan'snationalsecurityintheWesterntheatresincethelastdecade.Officially,PakistanisafrontlineallyoftheUSINATObutironically,everyhighlevelofficialoftheUSandNATOcountriescriticizethePakistaniintelligenceagenciesforbeingthebiggestaccompliceoftheAfghanTalibanagainsttheAllies.TheUSINATOforcesarenowinanopenmilitaryclashwithPakistanarmyontheDurandlineaswell.Ontheotherhand,theTalibanconsiderPakistantobeaUSINATOallyandareannoyedattheformer'sAfghanpolicy.ThissituationisastrategicnightmareforIslamabadandPakistanislosingherdiplomaticcloutinAfghanaffairsafteradoptinga'madeinUSA'Afghanpolicy!
It
seemsasifinthewholeAfghanequation,theAfghanTalibanandotherresistanceelementsaretheonlystakeholderswhoarenotconfusedoverthisnerve-breakingcliffhanger.InfacttheyaregettingmorefocusedinsideAfghanistanandarehittingthealliedforceswithmorelethalityatahigherfrequency.ThedeathtolloftheforeignforcesinAfghanistanisincreasingwitheverypassingyear.
 
ForPakistan,thecurrentsituationdemandsanincisivere-evaluationofthedecadeoldAfghanpolicy.ThisreassessmentmustbebasedontheemergingthreatstoPakistan'snationalsecurity,particularlyontheWesternbordersduetothepresenceofforeignforcesinAfghanistaninsteadofthetraditionalthinkingofremainingintheUScampatanycost.IndeedtheIndo-USstrategicrelationsinthe21
st
centuryandtheirimpactonPakistanwouldalsobeacriticalconsiderationduringanypolicyreviewandIslamabadwouldnotliketofurtherdeteriorateitsalreadytroubledrelationswithWashington.Butthenationalandregionalsecurityrelatedeventsthathavetranspiredduringthelast10yearsaswellastheemergenceofChinaasamajorglobalplayer,necessitateacomprehensiveoverhaulingofIslamabad'sstrategicthinkingandtheAfghanpolicy.InthecurrentphaseoftheAfghanconflict,PakistanhastheleveragetotakesomestrategicstridesinordertoprotectitsownsovereigntyandbringdurablepeaceinAfghanistan.ThedilemmahasmagnifiedtosuchproportionsthathavingfailedtofullyutilizethisleveragethemilitaryestablishmentinPakistanisnowfacedwithimmensepressuretocarryoutafull-scaleoperationinNorthWaziristan.ThesearetheUSwartacticsthathavebotchedherinAfghanistanandnotsomeisolatedarmedtribesmenwhocrossintoAfghanistantoseekrevengeforthedeathsoftheirdearoneskilledintherelentlessUSdroneattacks.NopartofPakistaniterritoryhasplayedanyroleincreatingthegrimstateofaffairsfacedbytheUSforcesinAfghanistantoday.However,itishighlyunfortunatethatPakistanhasfailedmiserablyin
Journeybackhome-Inacasket!Onawildgoosechase-Occupationforceconfused,disorientedandscared!
presentingitscaseinaforcefulmanner.AfterrealizingthebitterfactthatthecoalitioncannotwininAfghanistan,nowtheUSINATOhaveunleashedhellontheAfghanciviliansinordertobreaktheresistancebyusingthescorchearthstrategy.TheiraimistobreakthelowandmidlevelfightingelementsoftheAfghanresistancephysiologicallybydestroyingtheirdwellingsandoppressingtheirspouses.TherearesomecomplexdynamicsoftheAfghansocietywhichtheUSforceshadcompletelyignoredintheirwaragainsttheTaliban.TheUSisdesperatelytryingtowinawarusingitsmilitarystrategyaloneandthisissomethingthathasneverworkedinthepastandisnowgoingtofailinAfghanistanaswell.WhytheUScan'twininAfghanistan?PressureontheUSforcesissointensethatitisbeingfeltinWashingtonaswell.PresidentObamahadtosacktheUSforces'commanderinAfghanistantwicewithinthefirstthirteenmonthsofhistenureintheWhiteHouse.ObamaisdesperateforsecuringsomesortofmilitaryvictoryinAfghanistanbeforethe2012presidentialelections.However,thisgoalremainselusiveastheUSforcesarelosingthecriticalbattleofwinningtheheartsandmindsofthecommonAfghanpeopleduetothefollowingfactors:
 
TheUSarmyisnowprofilingtheAfghanpopulation,particularlyinKandaharandHelmandprovincesintheSouth,usingbiometricfingerprintingandIrispattern-scanningforkeepingtheindividual'suniquebiologicalrecordforlateruse.Butthesetacticsareonlygoodforguardinginstallationsandpremises;theycannotsavetheUSINATOsoldiersfromtheIEDblastsorambushes.
1.
TheTalibanareelusivetargetsandruthlesshiddenpredators.TheirbattlestrategyhasforcedtheUSforcestoexecuteaninhumanannihilationstrategyinthevillagesofAfghanistan.TheUSSpecialForcesareusing
2.
thescorchearthtacticsinordertobreaktheresistancebutitiscertainlygoingtoenragetheAfghans.Inonesuchoperation,TarokKolache,asmallsettlementinKandahar,waswipedofffromthefaceoftheplanetbytheUSforcesafterbeingmetwithstiffresistanceputupbytheTalibanfighters.TheTalibanhadplantedIEDsandminesinthenearbyorchardsadoptingaverycomplexdeploymentpattern.AftertwofailedattemptsbytheUSforcestoenterthevillage,thecommanderofthegroundforcescalledinanairstriketopulverizethewholevillage.TheUSAF'sA-IOandB-57bombersdelivered
Biometricsprofiling-taggingeveryAfghanhasgivensomesuccesstotheoccupationforces!
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