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Weekly Report_xxv_june 21 to 24, 2011

Weekly Report_xxv_june 21 to 24, 2011

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Published by JC Calaycay

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Published by: JC Calaycay on Jun 18, 2011
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ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION
GF EC-058B East Tower, PSE Center, Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, PHILIPPINES 1605 (632)687-5071 (trunk)
Outlook for Week XXV_June 21 to 24_TD 119-122
1 of 3
 WEEKLY MARKET STATS UPDATE:MARKET STATISTICAL HIGHLIGHTS: Week 24
Trades shifted from bigger-lot, cheaper counters, mostlythird-line, speculative to smaller-lot, second & first lineissues
Breadth remains negative, with the AD ratio indicatingsustained bearish bias
Foreigners lightened up positions although remainingpositive
Philippine equities are fairly valued in terms of PE vis-a-visselected major global and regional peer indexes
Service, Financial and Holding Firms sectors are trading atbelow market PE
ORRIES
about the health of the US economy and Europe'sdebt were the central theme of this week's trades. Howeverin slight contrast to the preceding week's almost unbridled slide,week 24 saw sentiments swinging between cautious optimism andgeneral pessimism from one day to the next. Thus market indexesposted alternating positive and negative closes. Unfortunately, themagnitude of the drops continued to be greater than the gainspainting a still negative bias heading into week 25.Global markets generally posted marginal gains or significant dropsweek-on-week, narrowing year-to-date gains off highs and pushingothers deeper in the negative. US and European markets postedgains on the week, except for tech-heavy Nasdaq in the US andLondon's FTSE 100. Only Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia equities escapedthe sell-off with a 0.47% gain.
 W 
 At home all sectors slumped, widening year-to-datelosses. Owing to the recent run-up in oil and commodityprices, plus corporate news and rumors on certaincomponent issues however, the Mining and Oil sectorcontinues to show a huge 30% year-to-date gain,nonetheless.On a positive note, valuations remain low, based on PEmultiples. Philippine shares are ranked along the medianline among 23 selected major global and regional peermarkets. Narrowing the selection to the Asia-Pacificarea, the country's rank continues to straddle the mid-line. It lies slightly above it among its ASEAN 6 peers.
DISCLAIMER: THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED OR MADE AVAILABLE TO OTHERS. UNDER NOCIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY. WHILE THE INFORMATION HEREIN IS FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOTREPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WE SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANYINFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS REPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON THE CREDIT-WORTHINESS OR INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THE INDUSTRIES MENTIONED.
PHILIPPINE MARKET STATSINDEX LAST WEEK% YTD% PEPSEI 4,153.11 -3.36 -1.14 14.91ALL 2,944.01 -2.54 -2.08 19.29FIN 912.43 -5.18 -5.10 12.50IND 7,108.98 -1.21 -1.55 18.71HDG 3,465.06 -2.08 2.25 13.20PRO 1,483.60 -3.43 -6.25 20.05SVC 1,459.20 -5.25 -8.25 12.45M&O 18,295.80 -2.80 31.18 34.18WORLD MARKETSINDEX LAST WEEK% YTD% PE (ttm)DOW 12,004.40 0.44 3.69 13.18S&P 1,271.50 0.04 1.10 14.49NASDAQ 2,616.48 -1.03 -1.37 22.14FTSE 100 5,714.94 -0.88 -3.14 13.81DAX 7,164.05 1.33 3.61 12.33CAC 40 3,823.74 0.49 0.50 11.41MSCI APEX 50 846.44 -3.16 -2.27 14.17TOPIX 805.34 -1.47 -10.40 15.97NIKKEI 225 9,351.40 -1.71 -8.58 17.12HANGSENG 21,695.30 -3.23 -5.82 11.53SHANGHAI 2,642.82 -2.30 -5.89 14.82TAIEX 8,636.10 -2.28 -3.75 15.54KOSPI 2,031.93 -0.72 -0.93 20.06S&P/ASX 200 4,484.90 -1.69 -5.49 15.69ALL ORDINARIES 4,551.10 -1.81 -6.10 22.47NZ50 3,469.59 -0.60 4.85 21.90SET 1,018.96 -0.14 -1.34 12.97JCI 3,722.30 -1.73 0.51 17.12BSESN 17,870.50 -2.18 -12.87 16.18Straits Times 3,005.28 -2.37 -5.79 10.18KLCI 1,563.43 0.47 2.93 16.69HO CHI MINH 438.93 -1.36 -9.44 9.31
CATEGORY MEASURE VALUE PREVIOUS WEEK CHANGE% END-DEC2010 CHANGE%NET VOLUME 2,807,417,588 2,834,409,774 -0.95% 1,637,867,112 71.41%NET VALUE 4,489,360,219.49 4,484,687,751.92 0.10% 4,603,800,556.27 -2.49%ISSUES TRADED 173 172 0.58% N/A N/ATRADES 14,886 14,955 -0.46% N/A N/AFOREIGN (BUY) 2,178,866,689.64 2,178,934,273.73 0.00% 1,972,980,083.85 10.44%FOREIGN (SELL) 2,051,943,132.18 2,048,279,430.89 0.18% 1,752,691,290.38 17.07%FOREIGN (NET) 126,923,557.46 130,654,842.84 -2.86% 220,288,793.48 -42.38%INDICATORS AD Line -883.00 -763.00 15.73% -508.00 73.82%%K STO(14,3) 24.97 34.87 -28.41% 95.12 -73.75%%D (STO(14,3,3) 20.97 39.84 -47.35% 72.13 -70.92%RSI(14) 40.89 45.43 -9.99% 56.61 -27.77%EMA(10) 4,198.37 4,251.82 -1.26% 4,149.40 1.18%EMA(50) 4,206.41 4,214.95 -0.20% 4,119.42 2.11%EMA(150) 4,069.17 4,062.37 0.17% 3,839.39 5.98%ACTIVITY [YTDDAILY AVERAGES]
-5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00
HO CHI MINHStraits TimesCAC 40HANGSENGDAXSETDOWFTSE 100MSCI APEX 50S&PPSEISHANGHAITAIEXS&P/ASX 200TOPIXBSESNKLCINIKKEI 225JCIKOSPINZ50NASDAQ ALL ORDINARIES
PE (ttm)
 
ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION
GF EC-058B East Tower, PSE Center, Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, PHILIPPINES 1605 (632)687-5071 (trunk)
Outlook for Week XXV_June 21 to 24_TD 119-122
2 of 3
The PSEI broke under a 2.5 month, 135-point (3.2%) trading band as it slipped -1.6% last week. Three attempts to break through the 4,335-resistance line failed as value flow favored distribution. This opens up the prospects of a full retreat toand test of the 4,070-4,100 major support line. The lower end coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement pointbased on the advance from the February low of 3,705.18 to the 4,335.04 top last May 11
th
. A further breach presents anincreasing probability of a slide towards the 3,970-4,000 range.The numbers shown in the statistical summary above does not give a positive picture moving into next week. The shifttowards second-line and first-line counters is merely reflective of short term opportunities presented by the extendedslide, and quite possibly, early positioning for the next earnings cycle. At the end of the week preceding last (week 23),21 of the 31 main index components posted retreats of varying degrees from -0.34% to as much as -5.26% by AboitizPower Corporation [pse: AP] and SM Investments Corporation [pse: SM], respectively. Of the 21, at least half, or ten(10) lost more than 2.5% versus the PSEI's -1.8% over the same period. Last week, AP topped the list with gains of 6.95%while SM held steady.Despite the general pessimism which saw the PSEI break under the 4,170-support line, only a handful of issues didlikewise. Banco de Oro Unibank, Inc. [pse: BDO, php51.80], Bank of the Philippine Islands [pse: BPI, php53.95],Robinsons Land Corporation [pse: RLC, php11.18] and Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. [pse: TEL/ nyse: PHI] fellunder support. Alternatively, the same number of counters defied the move, instead breaking above their respectiveresistance marks: Alliance Global Group, Inc. [pse: AGI, php10.34], Metro Pacific Investments Corporation [pse: MPI,php3.62], Aboitiz Power Corporation [pse: AP, php31.55], Manila Water Corporation and [pse: MWC, php19.34]. The restof the PSE component issues held within their respective support-resistance bands.The prevalence of “undervaluations” are highlighted by the factthat based on trailing twelve month earnings, nearly half, or 15, of the index components are trading at below the PSEI's multiple.Dominating the list are property counters. This list only includesthose with PE of below 10x trailing earnings. The bargain-argument is further magnified by comparing its current marketprice to its equity book value. The same issues in the list show all,except power firm AP, trading at no more than 2.0x BV. Note thatthe list includes AGI and AP which broke resistance and RLC whichfell under support at last week's trades. We place a
BUY 
tag onthese issues, both on momentum and valuation points.
DISCLAIMER: THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED OR MADE AVAILABLE TO OTHERS. UNDER NOCIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY. WHILE THE INFORMATION HEREIN IS FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOTREPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WE SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANYINFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS REPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON THE CREDIT-WORTHINESS OR INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THE INDUSTRIES MENTIONED.
STOCKPricePE (TTM) P/BKPSEI4153.0414.54 -SECB93.055.38 1.47AGI10.348.69 1.17RLC11.188.82 1.15FLI1.199.37 0.73AP31.559.48 5.10ABS40.009.89 1.81MEG1.909.90 0.93

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