#thaistory part I, version 2.0

THAILAND’S MOMENT OF TRUTH

A SECRET HISTORY OF 21

ST

CENTURY SIAM

#THAISTORY| PART ONE OF THREE | VERSION 2.0 | 150811

ANDREW M

AC

GREGOR MARSHALL

MAIL|TWITTER |BLOG|FACEBOOK |GOOGLE+

- - - - - “The battle lines in Thailand's political environment are clearly drawn... The Thaksin machine faces off against a mix of royalists, Bangkok middle class, and southerners, with Queen Sirikit having emerged astheir champion, as King Bhumibol largely fades from an active role.... They are positioning themselvesfor what key actors on both sides freely admit to us in private will be Thailand's moment of truth - royalsuccession after the King passes away.” - U.S. cable08BANGKOK3289, November 4, 2008.

ช้างตายทั ้งตัวเอาใบบัวปิดไม่มิด

-

Thai proverb “Nothing will come of nothing; speak again.”- Lear to Cordelia in William Shakespeare,

King Lear

, Act I Scene I - - - - -

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.

CONTENTS AND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

PROLOGUE: “THE DYSFUNCTIONAL FAMILY PICNIC”- Thailand’s King Rama IX, BhumibolAdulyadej, the world’s longest reigning living monarch, is languishing in hospital as his reign enters itstwilight years, beset by ill health, his legacy threatened by rivalries and tension within his own family andmultiple power struggles and conflicts throughout the nation. A draconian lèse majesté law outlaws opendiscussion of the divisions within the palace and the political role played by the monarchy in modern Thaihistory. But more than 3,000 U.S. diplomatic cables on Thailand, leaked by American soldier BradleyManning during a tour of duty in Iraq in 2009 and 2010, provide detailed insight into the monarchy’srole in Thailand’s political conflict and the risk of a looming crisis over the royal succession. I gainedaccess to the cables in the spring of 2011 through my work as a senior Reuters editor responsible for Southeast Asia. When Reuters refused to allow me to publish the most important revelations in the cables,I resigned in June 2011, to make this story freely available online to all those who wish to read it, in the belief that free and open debate is essential for Thailand to resolve its problems peacefully. I. “A WATERSHED EVENT IN THAI HISTORY”- 21st century Thailand is gripped by intensenational anxiety and uncertainty as Bhumibol’s long reign draws to a close. The king’s likely successor,Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn, is widely despised and feared. Whether or not Vajiralongkorn becomes Rama X, Bhumibol’s death is likely to herald a period of profound upheaval, and multiple parallel political conflicts are already raging as competing players struggle to position themselves for theinevitable paradigm shift to come. During more than six decades on the throne, Bhumibol accumulatedunmatched moral authority in the eyes of most Thais, due to his apparent personal virtue and tirelessdedication to the welfare of the nation. Traditional reverence for the king, rooted in the spiritual beliefsof most Thais, was augmented by a prolonged campaign of pro-palace propaganda and ceremonialreinvention, with the backing of Thai royalists, the military, and the United States which encouragedadulation of the king as an antidote against the lure of communism. Political interventions by Bhumibolin 1973 and 1992 helped foster his paradoxical image as a pro-democracy monarch and an ally of thecommon people. The king’s health appears increasingly fragile - he was hospitalized for a stroke inlate 2007, for bronchitis in late 2008, and since September 2009 he has remained in Bangkok’s SirirajHospital, declining to leave even when doctors were ready to discharge him. Several sources suggest that besides his physical ailments, Bhumibol has been struggling with depression. While his health has shownsome improvement since 2010, the king no longer appears to be an active participant in the politicalarena. The Bhumibol era is clearly coming to an end. II. “LOVE OF FLYING AND WOMEN”- Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn appears utterly unequal to thetask of preserving reverence and respect for the Thai monarchy if he becomes Rama X. After failing toimpress at boarding school in England and military academy in Australia, the prince was pressured byhis mother, Queen Sirikit, to marry his own cousin. It was a totally unsuitable match and Vajiralongkornsoon abandoned her and fathered five children with an aspiring actress, who was then banished from his palace in 1996. In 2001 he married his third wife, Srirasmi, fathering a son in 2005 who is currently theonly other legitimate male heir of the House of Chakri. A video showing Srirasmi dressed only in a thongat a birthday party for Vajiralongkorn’s beloved pet poodle Foo Foo - promoted by the prince to the rank of air chief marshal - was widely circulated in 2007, further damaging the prince’s image. Vajiralongkorn

has abandoned his latest wife and young son, and currently spends most of his time in Germany, wherehe is believed to be undergoing regular medical treatment at a spa near Munich for an unknown medicalcondition, rumoured to be HIV or some kind of blood disorder. His son by Srirasmi is also reported tohave physical and mental health problems, but this is also unconfirmed. Although Thailand is in theorya constitutional monarchy, in practice the king wields immense political influence, but often does soindirectly via a network of loyal royalists. The power of the palace means that many Thais dread the prospect of a prince they regard as corrupt and cruel becoming king. Ironically, many of those mostviscerally opposed to Vajiralongjorn are staunch royalists in the circle of elderly Privy Council presidentPrem Tinsulanonda who fear the prince will destroy the prestige and influence of the monarchy, and areterrified by the prospect that he has formed an alliance with their political nemesis, Thaksin Shinawatra.These fears were fanned by a damaging political intervention in 2009: Vajiralongkorn tried to force thegovernment to appoint as chief of police a candidate who had been previously been used by Thaksin asa courier to deliver large cash payments to the perennially indebted and profligate prince. Thais wouldoverwhelmingly prefer Bhumibol’s third child, known as “Princess Angel”, to succeed her father, but thiswould defy centuries of tradition, and Bhumibol has repeatedly signalled that he intends Vajiralongkornto inherit the throne. III. “FEAR AND LOATHING FOR THE QUEEN”- The single most damaging episode for Thailand’sroyal family so far in the 21st century was Queen Sirikit’s decision to attend the funeral rites of a youngwoman killed during clashes between Yellow Shirt protesters and police outside parliament in October 2008. By doing so, the queen explicitly signalled support for one side in the conflict, destroying the myththat the palace is above politics. One result was a surge in online criticism of the royal family in generaland the queen in particular. Sirikit has also taken a particular interest in the ethnic and religious conflict inThailand’s deep south; several senior officials regard her interventions as unhelpful. In 2004 she gave aninflammatory speech condemning Muslim insurgents and calling for Buddhists in the region to be givenhelp defending themselves; her comments led to the creation of the Or Ror Bor militia under thesupervision of her military aide-de-camp. A member of this militia was the ringleader of an attack on amosque in June 2009 that killed 10 people. In August 2009, banners with slogans denouncing the queenappeared across Pattani province. In Isaan province in the northeast, some pictures of the queen have beenvandalised. Bhumibol and Sirikit were regarded as a fairtytale couple in the 1950s and 1960s butincreasingly grew apart, and stories circulated that she was the dominant personality in the palace. In1985/86 Sirikit suffered a serious breakdown and disappeared from public view for months; since then,she and Bhumibol have led separate lives. The queen has consistently tended to be more extreme andinterventionist than the king, in regard to both the political crisis and the Muslim insurgency in the south.A key member of her inner circle is hardline army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha. Several sources saySirikit was a key player behind the 2006 coup and is de facto figurehead of the Yellow Shirt movementopposed to Thaksin. While Privy Council president Prem and other leading royalists have long beenassumed to be working on behalf of the king, considerable evidence suggests Bhumibol’s role isincreasingly inactive and Sirikit is the driving force in the network monarchy. When key confidantes of the king tried to defuse political tensions in 2008 they were contemptuously denounced by Yellow Shirtleader Sondhi Limthongkul; it is inconceivable he could have behaved with such swaggering insolencetowards Bhumibol’s messengers unless he had the explicit backing of Queen Sirikit. Sirikit had long beenthe key supporter in the palace of her wayward son Vajiralongkorn, but their relationship broke down in2007 and has never recovered. Sirikit even intervened in the police chief dispute in 2009 to counteract the