Professional Documents
Culture Documents
4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12
Percentage of GDP
Actual Projected
4 2 0
Baseline
-2 -4 -6
-8 -10 -12
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
120
Percentage of GDP
Actual Projected Continuation of Certain Policies
120
100
100
80
80
Baseline
60 60
40
40
20
20
0 2021
Defense spending has trended down relative to GDP. Outlays for all other federal programs have shown substantial variation relative to GDP and a slight downward trend. 4
Actual
Baseline Projection
24
22
22
20
20
18
18
16
16
14
14
0 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
0 2021
Highest Quintile
25
20
Fourth Quintile
Middle Quintile
15
Second Quintile
10
Lowest Quintile
0 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Percentage of GDP
Actual Baseline Projection
Social Security
Medicare
0 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Defense Discretionary
5 Non-Defense Discretionary
Mandatory Spending Other Than Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, CHIP, and Exchange Subsidies
0 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Federal Employees
Millions
8
Percent
12
7 10 6
2 1
0 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
0 2010
Percent
Transfer payments to people in the United States Grants to state and local governments Purchases of goods and services for defense Purchases of goods and services for nondefense Interest Other (includes transfers to people outside the U.S.)
47 14 19 9 8 4
10
The costs of Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and the Childrens Health Insurance Program have risen substantially relative to GDP, from 4.3 percent in 1971 to 8.7 percent in 2007 (before the recession). Defense spending has fallen substantially relative to GDP, from 7.3 percent in 1971 to 3.9 percent in 2007.
11
Revenues
18.0
20.8
19.3
18 1/2
Outlays
20.8
23.9
24.2
20 1/4
18.6 2.2
20.5 3.4
20.3 3.9
17 3 1/4
Deficit
2.8
3.1
4.9
2
13
Note: The Ryan proposal was estimated relative to an earlier baseline, so the figures are not precisely comparable to the latest baseline projection or estimates for the Presidents budget.
1971-2010 Average
17 5 1/4 5 1/2
Major health programs Defense Other mandatory spending and nondefense discretionary spending
}6
Note: Major health programs include Medicare, Medicaid, the Childrens Health Insurance Program, and exchange subsidies. The Ryan proposal was estimated relative to an earlier baseline, so the figures are not precisely comparable to the latest baseline projection or estimates for the Presidents budget. 14
Outlays for Major Programs Compared with Total Revenues Under a Continuation of Certain Policies
22
Percentage of GDP
Actual
Projected Outlays for Social Security, Major Health Programs, Defense, and Net Interest
20
18
Total Revenues
16
14 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
15
The question is not whether to change current policies, but when and in what ways. There are trade-offs regarding the timing of implementing policy changes, but there are important benefits and few apparent costs to deciding about those changes soon. Fiscal policy cannot be put on a sustainable path just by eliminating waste and inefficiency; instead, changes will need to significantly affect popular programs, peoples tax payments, or both.
16