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6-17-11 Dan Amoss VALUEx Vail

6-17-11 Dan Amoss VALUEx Vail

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Published by currygoat

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Published by: currygoat on Jun 27, 2011
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial


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Short Selling In an Era of Socialized Credit Losses
VALUExVail ConferenceJune 17, 2011Dan AmossEditor,
Strategic Short Report 
Approach: top-down (macro) analysis identify most attractive sectors for shortideas
Narrow focus to worst based on«
Fundamentals, including competitive position
´Qualitativeµ research
How does this company make money, and is it sustainable?
The story behind the numbers is crucial
´Austrian Schoolµ view on the economy vs. consensus view(Keynesian/Monetarist hybrid)
Review 10 years of financials and management·s strategy for investing capital
Core Macro Assumptions, Not Predicting GDP, isHow I Approach Top-Down Research
Policymakers are damaging the economy with ´kick the can down the roadµKeynesian policies. Overconfidence stems from belief that they saved theeconomy in ¶08. Reality: will spread the credit losses created by the bubble toholders of U.S. dollars/Treasuries over the next decade (result: future supply of money and Treasuries will greatly surprise to the upside)
Keynesian policies act to consume the capital that was created and grown byentrepreneurs.
U.S. had built up enormous capital during 19
& 20
Centuries, but in recentdecades, we·ve been borrowing against it, and sold off claims to foreign creditors
Compare the economy to a company·s fundamentals; U.S. economy is in many waysfunctioning like an ´LBOµ
Tax code & monetary policy rewards debt accumulation and consumption, punishessavings and capital investment.
Result: ´Stagflationµ

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