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6-17-11 Dan Amoss VALUEx Vail

6-17-11 Dan Amoss VALUEx Vail

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Published by currygoat

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Published by: currygoat on Jun 27, 2011
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06/27/2011

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Short Selling In an Era of Socialized Credit Losses
VALUExVail ConferenceJune 17, 2011Dan AmossEditor,
Strategic Short Report 
http://strategicshortreport.agorafinancial.com/
 
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Approach: top-down (macro) analysis identify most attractive sectors for shortideas
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Narrow focus to worst based on«
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Fundamentals, including competitive position
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´Qualitativeµ research
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How does this company make money, and is it sustainable?
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The story behind the numbers is crucial
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Tools:
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´Austrian Schoolµ view on the economy vs. consensus view(Keynesian/Monetarist hybrid)
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Review 10 years of financials and management·s strategy for investing capital
 
Core Macro Assumptions, Not Predicting GDP, isHow I Approach Top-Down Research
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Policymakers are damaging the economy with ´kick the can down the roadµKeynesian policies. Overconfidence stems from belief that they saved theeconomy in ¶08. Reality: will spread the credit losses created by the bubble toholders of U.S. dollars/Treasuries over the next decade (result: future supply of money and Treasuries will greatly surprise to the upside)
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Keynesian policies act to consume the capital that was created and grown byentrepreneurs.
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U.S. had built up enormous capital during 19
th
& 20
th
Centuries, but in recentdecades, we·ve been borrowing against it, and sold off claims to foreign creditors
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Compare the economy to a company·s fundamentals; U.S. economy is in many waysfunctioning like an ´LBOµ
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Tax code & monetary policy rewards debt accumulation and consumption, punishessavings and capital investment.
Result: ´Stagflationµ

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