B E N E N S O N S T R A T E G Y G R O U P

1000 Potomac Street, N.W., Suite 420

Washington, D.C. 20007
T E L 2 0 2 3 3 9 6 0 6 0

To: Jeff Merkley Campaign Team

From: Pete Brodnitz
Date: September 11, 2008
Re: Poll of Likely Oregon Voters

Democrat Jeff Merkley has pulled ahead of incumbent Republican Senator Gordon Smith, despite being
outspent by Smith by $3 million in direct campaign expenditures and by at least $1.5 million when
spending by outside groups is included. In the race for Senate, Merkley leads by 2% - gaining 5 points in
the past month, while Smith has lost 6% in the same time frame. Currently, 43% of Oregon voters
support Merkley, 41% choose Smith, 6% support Brownlow, and 10% are undecided.

In the November election for U.S. Senate if the candidates were … for whom
would you vote? [IF UNDECIDED] Which candidate do you lean toward?
June ‘08 Aug ‘08 Sept ‘08 ∆
Difference (Merkley – Smith) -10 -9 +2 +11
Democrat Jeff Merkley 38 38 43 +5
Republican Gordon Smith 48 47 41 -6
Constitution Party Dave Brownlow 4 4 6 +2
Don’t Know 9 11 10 -1

During the same period, support for Obama has been steady – 51% supported him in August and 49%
support him in our current poll.

Smith has failed to convince voters he can bring the change the country needs. One-third (32%) gives
him a positive job rating, while 61% rate his performance negatively. Further, only 15% of undecided
voters rate Smith’s job performance as Senator as excellent or good, and 70% rate it as fair or poor.

How would you rate the job Gordon Smith has

been doing as Senator?
All Undecideds

Difference -29 -55

Total Excellent/Good 32 15
Excellent 5 0
Good 28 15
Total Fair/Poor 61 70
Fair 43 50
Poor 19 20
Don’t know 6 15

This marks a steady erosion of Smith’s job performance that was net negative at the end of last year
and has become far worse. Between August and September Smith’s positive job rating dropped by 4%,
and his negative rating increased by 2%.

The Benenson Strategy Group conducted 702 interviews statewide with likely voters September 7-9,
2008. The margin of error is ±3.7%. The Benenson Strategy Group’s clients include Governor Tim
Kaine (VA), Senator Jim Webb (VA), and Senator Robert Menendez (NJ). Peter Brodnitz, who
conducted this survey, was named “Pollster of the Year” by the American Association of Political
Consultants last year for his work for Kaine, Webb and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign
Committee. It is a bi-partisan award given to one pollster every two years.

PAID FOR BY JEFF MERKLEY FOR OREGON 1