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considerablythepowerofkeyactorstoapointwherethestructureoftheinternationalsystem(andthusthebehaviourofthosewithinit)isquitedifferentthanthatprojected.Majorenvironmentalshocksarisingfromforcessuchasclimatechangemayproducesimilareffects.
6
BeyondthisliesthefactthatthefruitionofsuchtrendswillbeheavilycontingentontheinteractionofabroadrangeofforcesandawidearrayofleadersandpersonalitieAccordingly,boththespeedwithwhichtheyunfoldasthedegreetowhichtheyimpactonparticularregioes,willofteninvolveconsiderableuncertainty.Thefuturewillseegreaterfruitrendsjustnowbeoorni.animportantpoliticalincreasinglycompeteasaneffectivesofInfact,acriakeychtheability
Conclusion
alarena,itwillticalorganizationneedsandgoals.thoritymayrepresentthedecadesahead.And
ively
withnewcrucial,notonlytotheiruttothatoftheinternationalUShegemony-andsystemtlyexistswillgraduallygivewaytoanarconfigurationofpowerandinfluence.furthercomplexitytothenationalsecurityequationasingthepotentialformiscalculationandinadvertentconflictalongtheway.Meanwhile,theinternationallandscapewillfeaturearangeofissuesoverwhichpoliticalorganizationsandactorswillcontend,asaccesstoresources(bothphysicalandhuman),questionsofstatelegitimacy,sovereignty,andhumanrightsbecomeincreasinglysalientandimportantintheyearsahead.
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Notes
1
Foraparticularlyominousviewofsuchdevelopments,seePhilWilliams,
FromtheNewMiddleAgestoaNewDarkAge:TheDeclineoftheStateandUSStrategy,
(WashingtonDC:USArmyWarCollege,StrategicStudiesInstitutJune2008).Athttp://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.armyubs/display.cfm?PubID=867(accessed24February20
2
Whilethesecondhalfofthe20thwiththeemergenceofanumber
0
theinternationalsystem,aconunclear.Indeed,somehavecurrentlywitnessingamoveformsofgovernance-mnotaherehowever,assertisuchintomid-centurywoul
3
Thatsaid,suchconfinedtoentswillcontinueremainlimitedand,issuesandtheimpendingshiftfromethWaltz,"TheEmergingcs,"InternationalSecurity,Vol.alsoKennethWaltz,"Structuralar,
InternationalSecurity,
Vol.25,No.tewhethersuchasystemwouldevencasesofmulti-polarity.Infact,RichardHaassuggeststhefutureinternationalsystemmaybestbedescribedas"non-polar"-aconditioninwhichpowerwillbeexceedinglydiffuseandtheinfluenceofnation-stateswilldeclineasthatonnon-stateactorsincreases.SeeRichardN.Haas,"TheAgeofNon-Polarity:WhatWillFollowUSDominance?"
ForeignAffairs,
(May-June2008).
6
AccordingtoVaclavSmil,thereareessentiallythreecategoriesofeventthatwouldhavemajor,i.e.,"earthaltering,"
36
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long-termconsequences:1)naturalcatastrophes,2)pandemicillnessand3)transformationalwars.SeeVaclavSmil,"TheNext50Years:FatalDiscontinuities"
PopulationandDevelopmentReview,
(June2006),pp.201-36.
7
Inthisregard,oneshouldnotethatshiftsinthefuturedistributionofpowerintheinternationalsystemmaycruciallyturnasmuchonthepolicypreferencesandcisionsoftheleadershipofmajorpowersasonotherfdeed,policychoicesmaywellworktohastenorarreerelativetootherpowers.
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