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Weekly Sentiment

Weekly Sentiment

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Published by TheShortSideOfLong
Stock Market Correction, Market Sentiment, Commodities, US Dollar, Currencies, Economy, Technical Analysis, Mutual Fund Flows, Option Trading, AAII, Investor Intelligence, NAAIM, Commitment of Traders, ECRI, Yield Curve, Treasury Bonds, Fund Managers, S&P 500, CRB Index, Euro, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen, Silver, Corn, Crude Oil, Business Confidence, Copper, Weekly Jobless Claims,
Stock Market Correction, Market Sentiment, Commodities, US Dollar, Currencies, Economy, Technical Analysis, Mutual Fund Flows, Option Trading, AAII, Investor Intelligence, NAAIM, Commitment of Traders, ECRI, Yield Curve, Treasury Bonds, Fund Managers, S&P 500, CRB Index, Euro, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen, Silver, Corn, Crude Oil, Business Confidence, Copper, Weekly Jobless Claims,

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Published by: TheShortSideOfLong on Jul 03, 2011
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07/31/2011

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Equities
Mutual fund flows once again experienced large outflows, which indicatesthat retail investors are panic selling. In the first three weeks of June wesaw the accumulated monthly outflow of $16.6 billion. That is the secondworst reading since the March 2009 market low and the monthly data hasn’teven finished yet.With so much fear out there within the retail investor crowd, contrariansshould not be surprised at the powerful rally equities have put in this week.
 http://theshortsideoflong.blogspot.com/ 1
 
Retail investors (AAII) remain neutral, while newsletter advisors (II) andfund managers (NAAIM) remain quite bearish, despite the powerful rally wesaw this week. We do not yet know if the bull market top occurred at theFebruary and May tops, as sentiment was very bullish during those times.Looking at the current market action, probability favors new market highs.
 http://theshortsideoflong.blogspot.com/ 2
 
Retail options traders remained more neutral this week, as the readingsmove towards the mean of the last five years. However, the recent binge ofput buying should put in a stock market bottom, at least in the short term.With so much put buying out there during June, contrarians should not besurprised at the powerful rally in equities this week.Over the last 5 years, a huge jump in puts worked as a contrarian indicatorto trade a rally, every single occurrence apart from September 15th 2008 -when the Federal Reserve let Lehman Brothers go bust.
 http://theshortsideoflong.blogspot.com/ 3

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