theanalyst
monthly fund factsheet
und snapshot
investment philosophy
Reliance Life Insurance seeksconsistent and superior long-termreturns with a well-defined anddisciplined investment approachsymbolizing integrity and transparencyto benefit all stakeholders.
Indian Economy
Rally in commodity prices (especially crude oil) witnessed during Feb-Apr 2011 raised inflationary concerns in developingcountries. In May Crude Oil corrected around 10% because of weak employment situation and ISM manufacturing datafrom US. In addition, global food prices have already touched record levels of 2008 driven mainly by floods in variousparts of world due to global warming. Industrial production growth continued to remain volatile and showed figures from7.30% yoy in Mar'11 from 3.7%% in Feb’11. For the period Apr-Mar, IIP grew at 7.8% yoy vs 10.5% previous yearsame period.Credit growth continues to be robust at 22.4% YoY .Deposits growth has shown slight improvement and is now at 17.4%YoY from around 17% at end Mar’10. The inflation, after moderating from the peak of 11% in April’10 to 7.5% inNov’10, in terms of whole sale price index (WPI) hardened in Apr’11 to 8.66%. Sharp jump in non-food prices drivenmainly by high mineral prices and domestic fuel price hike has pushed up general price levels. Core inflation has alsocontributed to increase in Wholesale Price Index. Food prices continue to remain high
.
Debt Market
Amidst adequate liquidity the g-sec yields showed an upward movement on back of start of g-sec supply in the month ofApril. Most actively traded 10 yr paper touched a high of 8.41% against 8.1350% in previous month. Corporate bondsalso moved up sharply due to fresh primary issuances which was raised money through private placement at 9.70%. Atthe end of the month 10 year corporate bond traded at 9.77%
.
Debt Outlook:
In the Coming month, we expect interest rates to harden further. We expect liquidity to remain tight on creditdemand ,advanced tax outflows and government borrowing program. RBI is expected to hike rates in its next midQuarterly review policy meeting given the high inflation print of 8.66% for April. Key economic data-points like adheringto estimated budget numbers for FY12, monthly inflation numbers, IIP numbers, credit numbers, overall liquidity insystem, g-sec supply are likely to dominate the yield curve and RBI’s action.
Equity Market
Equity markets reacted negatively to the increase in interest rates by RBI in its policy review, concerns related to economicgrowth and negative global cues with the Sensex touching a low of 18,011 before recovering to close the month at18,503 with a loss of 3.30% .Equity markets were buoyed in the initial part of the month by a strong showing in state elections by the incumbentcoalition which helped it recover some lost ground due to rate policy hike.A lower GDP growth for January-March quarter (7.8% y-o-y) eased fears of a hawkish policy stance by RBI in the fiscalpolicy review in June and helped sentiment in the domestic markets during the end of the month. GDP for the fiscal 2011grew 8.5% compared with 8% in the fiscal 2010.
Equity Outlook:
Equity markets in the coming month would be governed by global factors like Greece bailout, QE2 withdrawal and USgrowth concerns. Domestically the key factors to watch out for would be policy measures in RBI policy review, EGOMmeet on fuel prices and the political fallout of the 2G scam. We expect the markets to be range bound in the month of June .
June 2011
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*CAGR: Compounded Annual Growth Rate
asset allocationgross return (CAGR*) (%) As on May 31, 2011funds
100% equityEquity Fund 10.83% 16.61% 7.16% 18.64% August, 2004100% pure equityPure Equity Fund 8.51% 13.30% NA 11.36% June, 2008100% equityInfrastructure Fund -3.64% -2.71% -6.79% -6.43% March, 2008100% equityEnergy Fund 0.17% 1.83% 2.29% 1.74% March, 2008100% equityMidcap Fund -1.09% 13.47% -0.18% 2.00% March, 200880% equity, 20% debtSuper Growth Fund 8.69% 12.86% 6.18% 5.98% May, 200760% equity, 40% debtHigh Growth Fund 8.00% 11.50% 7.29% 9.19% March, 200750% equity, 50% debtGrowth Plus Fund 7.37% 10.56% 7.70% 9.02% March, 200740% equity, 60% debtGrowth Fund 5.66% 8.64% 7.21% 11.46% August, 200420% equity, 80% debtBalanced Fund 5.13% 7.29% 7.93% 10.23% February, 2003100% bond instrumentsCorporate Bond Fund 5.09% 7.26% 8.93% 9.23% May, 2007100% debt InstrumentsPure Debt Fund 6.70% 8.16% 9.08% 8.96% April, 2007100% govt. securitiesGilt Fund 7.73% 6.21% 6.52% 6.52% May, 2007100% debt InstrumentsGuaranteed Bond Fund I 4.94% 7.27% NA 10.94% December, 2008100% money market instrumentsMoney Market Fund 7.80% 8.01% 8.88% 8.92% May, 2007100% money market instrumentsCapital Secure Fund 7.80% 7.47% 8.49% 7.13% February, 2003100% equityEquity Plus Fund 8.83% NA NA 5.76% January, 2010100% dynamicHighest Nav Guarantee Fund 10.06% 8.80% NA 8.80% February, 2010
date ofinceptionlast1 yearlast2 yearlast3 yearsinceinception
100% dynamicHighest NAV Advantage Fund-Series INA NA NA NA September, 2010100% pure equityNew Pure Equity Fund 8.54% NA NA 2.80% January, 2010100% equityNew Infrastructure Fund -3.68% NA NA -10.62% January, 2010100% equityNew Energy Fund 0.29% NA NA -2.86% January, 2010100% equityNew Midcap Fund -1.46% NA NA -4.99% January, 2010100% bond instrumentsNew Corporate Bond Fund 5.45% NA NA 6.47% January, 2010100% govt. securitiesNew Gilt Fund 5.41% NA NA 6.40% January, 2010100% money market instruments New Money Market Fund 8.23% NA NA 7.75% January, 2010
Source:
1
Bloomberg,
2
eaindustry.nic.in,
3
RBI and
4
SEBI
Economy Indicators
31stMay 1130thApr 11
%
1
Rs./$ 45.06 44.22 1.87
2
WPI Inflation Index 150.6 1.73
3
Forex Reserves ($ bn) 310.22 313.51 -1.06
1
Oil Price ($ per Barrel) 102.70 113.93 -10.93
1
Gold (Rs. per 10gm) 22252 22233 0.08
Investments 31stMay 1130thApr 11AbsoluteChange
4
FIIs (Rs Crs)-6,614 7,213 -13828
4
Mfs (Rs Crs)435 -464 898
Indices
31stMay 1130thApr 11
%Change
1
BSE Sensex18503 9.10 -3.31
1
S&P CNX Nifty5560 9.38 -3.29
1
CNX Mid Cap8065 9.09 -1.66
1
BSE Small Cap8236 4.59 -5.50
Global Indices
31stMay 1130thApr 11
%Change
1
Dow Jones12570 12811 -1.88
1
FTSE 1005990 6070 -1.32
1
Hang Seng23684 23721 -0.15
1
Nikkei9694 9850 -1.58
Sectoral Indices
31stMay 1130thApr 11
%Change
1
CNX Infrastructure2975 3023 -1.57
1
CNX Energy8784 9214 -4.66
1
BSE Capital Goods13092 13037 0.42
1
BSE Bankex12543 13077 -4.08
1
BSE Oil & Gas9594 9932 -3.40
1
BSE IT5994 6144 -2.44
Fixed IncomeIndicators (%)
31stMay 1130thApr 11
AbsoluteChange
1
NSE Mibor7.40 6.89 0.51
1
91 Day T-Bill8.10 7.45 0.65
1
182 Day T-Bill8.23 7.65 0.58
1
1 year GOIBenchmark 8.25 7.83 0.42
1
5 Year GOIBenchmark8.49 8.24 0.25
1
10 Year GOIBenchmark8.41 8.13 0.28
1
5 Year Corp BondBenchmark9.74 9.31 0.43
1
10 Year AAA Corp BondBenchmark9.77 9.24 0.52
1
10 Year USBenchmark3.06 3.29 -0.23
#
Forex Reserves updated as on 27th May 2011