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ab
Investment Strategy Guide
The summer of 
our discontent? 
Wealth Management Research
Third Quarter 2011
 Economy to escape from soft patch Resilient pro
  
ts support equitiesSovereign budget challenges remain key risk
 
 
Investment Strategy Guide
Third Quarter 2011
1
 
 Contents
 Video Feature
(electronic version only)
.......................................
2Focus: The summer of our discontent?
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3Progress Report: will, may or won’t?
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8Our Best Ideas at a Glance
.................................................
10Asset Allocation Overview
.................................................
11Washington Watch
..........................................................
12Market Scenarios
............................................................
15Economic Outlook
...........................................................
16Financial Market Performance
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19Asset Classes
.................................................................
20Foreign Exchange
............................................................
23International Markets
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24US Equities
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28US Fixed Income
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33Commodities
.................................................................
38Alternative Investments
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39Detailed Asset Allocation
..................................................
41Investment Committee
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43Portfolio Analytics
...........................................................
44Additional Asset Allocation Models
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45Tactical Asset Allocation Performance Measurement
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47Disclaimers/Disclosures
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50
Click on each chapter title to jump directly to that page.
 Publication detailsPublisher
 UBS Financial Services Inc.Wealth Management Research1285 Avenue of the Americas, 13th FloorNew York, NY 10019This report has been prepared by UBS FinancialServices Inc. (“UBS FS”) and UBS AG. Please seeimportant disclaimers and disclosures at the endof the document.This report was published on29 June 2011.
Editor in Chief
Stephen Freedman
Editor
Marcy Tolko
Authors
(in alphabetical order)Thomas BernerAnne BrigliaStephen FreedmanKatherine KlingensmithDavid Le
owitzBarry McAlindenDonald McLauchlanKathleen McNamaraBrian RoseMike RyanJoe SaweDominic SchniderMichael TagliaferroJeremy Zirin
Project Management
Paul LeemingJohn Bellomo
Desktop Publishing
George StilabowerCognizant Group – Pavan Mekala,Srinivas Addugula and Virender Negi
For more research insights,scan the code with your smartphoneor visitubs.com/investmentinsights
 
2 Investment Strategy Guide
Third Quarter 2011
Dear Reader,
Let’s face it, there is just something about the summer months that tends to bothli
our spirits and lighten our burdens. Whether it is the long sun-drenched days,the carefree wandering of children enjoying a (hopefully) well-earned respitefrom school, or the excitement of that week-long holiday at the beach, summerhas a restorative e
ect on both body and soul. That’s not to suggest, however,that challenges ranging from economic “so
patches” and federal debt ceilingsto potential Greek defaults can be neglected until the leaves begin to turn andthe kids are back in class.But while investors must remain vigilant in their evaluation of risk in the currentunsettled environment, they also must prudently pursue investment opportunitiesas they present themselves. It remains our view that the economic so
patch is just that — a so
patch. A supportive policy backdrop, robust earnings cycle andattractive valuations suggest that stocks are still positioned to outperform bondsover the balance of the year. Therefore, as
rst communicated in a special
Investment Strategy Guide Update
published on 26 June, we have used the re-cent weakness in markets to increase our exposure to equities and reduce ourcash position to a normal weighting, while at the same time retaining our cau-tious stance toward bonds.Make no mistake, there will certainly be more challenges in the weeks andmonths ahead; few of the structural problems that triggered the global creditcrisis have been resolved. However, we believe the economy will continue tomuddle through and markets grind higher.It may not feel like a perfect beach day, but we do see some breaks in theclouds…
Editorial
Mike Ryan
Mike Ryan, CFA
Chief Investment StrategistHead, Wealth Management Research – AmericasStephen Freedman
Stephen Freedman, PhD, CFA
Head, Investment StrategyWealth Management Research – Americas
Video feature:
To watch ChiefInvestment Strategist Mike Ryangive a summary of this InvestmentStrategy Guide, please click here.
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