Stephen Marrin Course Title: Improving Intelligence Analysis Course Syllabus 2010 Description: In this course, you will

learn about intelligence analysis by examining its purpose, history, methods, processes, context, existing challenges, and recommendations for improvement. Specifically, you will learn about: debates within the intelligence world over such things as intelligence analysis as a science or art, and intelligence analysts as methodologists or artists; issues related to the intersection of analysis and policy, analysis and collection, and denial and deception; the parallels between intelligence analysis and similar functions in other fields, including weather forecasting and medical diagnosis; whether or not intelligence analysis is a profession, andif it isnthow it can become more like one; and much more. Required Texts: Roger George and James Bruce (Eds). Analyzing Intelligence: Origins, Obstacles, and Innovations. Georgetown University Press. Washington DC. 2008. Richard Russell. Sharpening Strategic Intelligence. Cambridge University Press. 2007. Week 1: Introductions and Overview Week 2: Learning from Intelligence Analysis History Ford. US Governments Experiences with Intelligence Analysis. 1996. 34-53. (G&B) KerrThe Track Record: CIA Analysis from 1950 to 2000. 35-54. (Note: Read Russell Acknowledgements (ix-x) but only skim Russell Ch. 1: Strategic Intelligence and American Statecraft. 1-28.) Russell Ch. 2-4: Debunking Cold War Myths; Stumbling After the Cold War; Blundering in the War on Terrorism. 29-94. Betts. Why Intelligence Failures Are Inevitable. World Politics. 1978. 61-89. Marrin. Preventing Intelligence Failures by Learning from the Past. IJIC 17/4. 2004. 655-72. Greenberg. Intelligence of the Past: Intelligence for the Future. Strategic Intelligence. 2007 169-178 Week 3: Describing Analytic Methods and Processes (Subtitled Actually Doing Intelligence Analysis Or What Are We Talking About, Anyway?) Heuer. Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. CIA/CSI. 2000. (the authors preface, foreword by Doug MacEachin, and Intro by Jack Davis; 1-30, 111-172). Marrin. Homeland Security and the Analysis of Foreign Intelligence. Markle Foundation Task Force Background Paper. 2002. 6-12. Johnston. Intro, Ch 1-2, 8. Analytic Culture in the US IC. 2005. xiiii-xx, 1-29, 97106 MacEachin. The Tradecraft of Analysis. US Intelligence at the Crossroads. 1995. 63-85. 1

Watanabe. Fifteen Axioms for Intelligence Analysts. CIA/Studies. 1997. 45-47. Selections from CIAs Compendium of Analytic Tradecraft Notes. 1-41. CIA Tradecraft Review. Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving IA. 1-42. ODNI ICD 203: Analytic Standards. 2007. 1-5.

Week 4: Is Intelligence Analysis an Art or a Science? Folker. The Art or Science Debate in Intelligence Analysis in Theater Joint Intelligence Centers: An Experiment in Applying Structured Methods. JMIC. 2000. 6-15. Random. Intelligence as a Science. CIA/Studies. (1957) 75-79. Heuer. Adapting Academic Methods and Models to Governmental Needs. Quantitative Approaches to Political Intelligence: The CIA Experience. 1978. 1-10. Ben-Israel. "Philosophy and Methodology of Intelligence: The Logic of Estimate Process." Intelligence and National Security 4, no. 4 (Oct. 1989): (660-718). Johnston. A Taxonomy of Intelligence Variables Analytic Culture in the US IC 2005. 33-44. Brooks and the Art of Intelligence Analysis (3 articles from 2003 to 2005). 1-8. Collier. A Pragmatic Approach to Developing Intelligence Analysts. DIJ. 2005. 1735. Marrin. Intelligence Analysis: Structured Methods or Intuition? AIJ. 25/1. (2007). 7-16. How Does this Art/Science Debate Affect Evaluation of Analysis? Wheaton and Chido. Evaluating Intelligence. Competitive Intelligence Magazine. 2007. 19-23. Russell. The Subjectivity of Intelligence Analysis and Implications for the US National Security Strategy. SAIS Review. (2004). 147-162. Lowenthal. Towards a Reasonable Standard for Analysis INS 23/3. 2008. 303-315. Week 5: How Much Does Analytic Knowledge/Expertise Matter? Heuer. Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. Tools for Thinking. 31-109. Russell Ch. 6: Analysts Who Are Not Experts. 119-148. Stewart. What is a Generalist?. CIAs Studies in Intelligence. 1958. 1-5. Garst & Gross. On Becoming an Intelligence Analyst. Defense Intelligence Jrl. 1997. 47-58. Betts Ch3 Theory Traps: Expertise as an Enemy. Enemies of Intelligence 2007 53-65. Marrin CIAs Kent School-Improving Training for New Analysts IJIC 2003 609-637. Miller. Improving All-Source IA: Elevate Knowledge. IJIC 21/2. 2008. 337-354. Marrin Adding Value to the Intelligence Product. Handbook of Intelligence Studies 2006 199-210. Week 6: Doing Analysis in Teams: Strengths and Weaknesses Johnston. Integrating Methodologists into Teams of Experts. 61-73. . Heuer. Small Group Processes for Intelligence Analysis. Working paper. 1-38. 2

Hackman and OConnor. Team Approaches to Intelligence Analysis. 2008. 2-26. More readings on analytic teams TBD

Week 7: The Policy-Analyst Relationship: Overview and Problems Kent: Producers and Consumers of Intelligence. Strategic Intelligence . 1949. 180206. Hilsman. Intelligence and Policy-Making in Foreign Affairs. World Politics. 1953. 1-45. Intelligence and Policy: The Evolving Relationship. CIA. 2004. 1-17. (G&B) McLaughlin. Serving the National Policymaker. 71-81. (G&B) Treverton. IA: Between Politicization and Irrelevance. 91-104. Immerman. Intelligence and Strategy. Diplomatic History. 2008. 1-23. Week 8: The Policy-Analyst Relationship, Part 2: Possible Solutions National Estimates: An Assessment of the Product and the Process. CIA. 1977. 23-50 Gates. The CIA and American Foreign Policy. Foreign Affairs 1987-88. 66/2. 215-30. Blackwill and Davis. Policymakers Perspective on IA. CIA/Studies. 1995. 1-12. Davis. Paul Wolfowitz on Intelligence Policy-Relations. CIA/Studies (1996). 3542. Davis. IA & Policymaking: Views of Ambassador Cohen. CIA/Studies. 1995. 1-7. (G&B) Steinberg The Policymakers Perspective-Transparency and Partnership 82-90 Peterson. The Challenge for the Political Analyst. CIA/Studies. 1-6. Armstrong. Ways to Make Analysis Relevant but Not Prescriptive CIA/Studies 2002. Murphy & Smith. Making IA Responsive to Policy Concerns Studies. 1973. 1-6. Gries. New Links between Intelligence and Policy. CIA/Studies. 34/2. 1990. 1-6. Marrin. At Arms Length or At the Elbow? IJIC. 20/3. 2007. 401414. Week 9: Enduring Challenges (G&B) Bruce. The Missing Link: The AnalystCollector Relationship. 191-210. Russell Ch. 5: Spies Who Do Not Deliver. 95-118. (G&B) Bruce and Bennett. Foreign D&D: Analytical Imperatives. 122-137. (G&B) Bruce. Making Analysis More Reliable: Why Epist. Matters to Intelligence 171-190. (G&B) Davis. Why Bad Things Happen to Good Analysts. 157-170. (G&B) George. The Art of Strategy and Intelligence. 107-121. Gates. Guarding Against Politicization. Studies in Intelligence. 1992. 5-13. (G&B) Thomas. US Military Intelligence Analysis: Old and New Challenges. 138154.

Week 10: Diagnosis and Prescription Marrin & Clemente. Improving Intelligence Analysis by Looking to the Medical Profession. IJIC. (2005) 707729. 3

Groopman. How Doctors Think. 2007. Introduction and Ch6: The Uncertainty of the Expert. (1-26; 132-155) Converse & Pherson. Intelligence and Medicine: Parallel Cognitive Traps. Pherson Associates. 2009. 1-6. Marrin & Clemente. Modeling an Intelligence Analysis Profession on Medicine. IJIC 19/4. (Winter 2006-2007). 642-665. (G&B) Fisher & JohnstonIs Intelligence Analysis a Discipline? 55-68. Rieber & Thomason, Creation of a National Institute for Analytic Methods. CIA/Studies. 49/4: 71-77.. Kerbel. Lost for Words: The Intelligence Communitys Struggle to Find its Voice. Parameters. 2008. 102-112.

Week 11: Looking to the Future and Prospects for Reform Johnston. Ch9: Recommendations. Analytic Culture in the US IC. 2005. 107-116. Future of Intelligence Analysis Final Report. University of Md. 2006. 1-28. (also read/skim appendices) (G&B) Gannon. Managing Analysis in the Information Age. 213-225. (G&B) Lowenthal Intelligence in Transition-Analysis after September 11 and Iraq. 226-237. (G&B) Medina. The New Analysis. 238-248. (G&B) Heuer. Computer-Aided Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. 251-265. Smith. Predictive Network-Centric Intelligence. Submission for the Galileo Essay Contest Sponsored by the Director of National Intelligence. 2006. 1-15. Russell Ch. 7: Facing Future Strategic Intelligence Challenges. 149-169. Tucker: The Cultural Revolution in Intelligence. Washington Quarterly. 2008. 47-61