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Marrin--Improving Intelligence Analysis Course Syllabus--Spring 2010

Marrin--Improving Intelligence Analysis Course Syllabus--Spring 2010

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Published by Stephen Marrin
This is the content of the university syllabus cited in the 2011 National Academy of Sciences report on intelligence analysis (Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, 2011, page 35), and provided the foundation for the 2011 Routledge book “Improving Intelligence Analysis: Bridging the Gap between Scholarship and Practice.”
This is the content of the university syllabus cited in the 2011 National Academy of Sciences report on intelligence analysis (Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, 2011, page 35), and provided the foundation for the 2011 Routledge book “Improving Intelligence Analysis: Bridging the Gap between Scholarship and Practice.”

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Published by: Stephen Marrin on Jul 08, 2011
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Stephen MarrinCourse Title: Improving Intelligence AnalysisCourse Syllabus 2010Description:
In this course, you will learn about intelligence analysis by examining its purpose, history, methods, processes, context, existing challenges, and recommendationsfor improvement. Specifically, you will learn about: debates within the intelligence worldover such things as intelligence analysis as a science or art, and intelligence analysts asmethodologists or artists; issues related to the intersection of analysis and policy, analysisand collection, and denial and deception; the parallels between intelligence analysis andsimilar functions in other fields, including weather forecasting and medical diagnosis;whether or not intelligence analysis is a profession, and—if it isn’t—how it can becomemore like one; and much more.
Required Texts:
Roger George and James Bruce (Eds). Analyzing Intelligence: Origins, Obstacles,and Innovations. Georgetown University Press. Washington DC. 2008.
Richard Russell. Sharpening Strategic Intelligence. Cambridge University Press.2007.
Week 1: Introductions and OverviewWeek 2: Learning from Intelligence Analysis History
Ford. “US Government’s Experiences with Intelligence Analysis.” 1996. 34-53.
(G&B) Kerr—The Track Record: CIA Analysis from 1950 to 2000. 35-54.
(Note: Read Russell Acknowledgements (ix-x) but only skim Russell Ch. 1: StrategicIntelligence and American Statecraft. 1-28.)
Russell Ch. 2-4: Debunking Cold War Myths; Stumbling After the Cold War;Blundering in the “War on Terrorism.” 29-94.
Betts. Why Intelligence Failures Are Inevitable. World Politics. 1978. 61-89.
Marrin. Preventing Intelligence Failures by Learning from the Past. IJIC 17/4. 2004.655-72.
Greenberg. Intelligence of the Past: Intelligence for the Future. StrategicIntelligence. 2007 169-178
Week 3: Describing Analytic Methods and Processes (Subtitled “Actually DoingIntelligence Analysis Or What Are We Talking About, Anyway?”)
Heuer. Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. CIA/CSI. 2000. (the author’s preface,foreword by Doug MacEachin, and Intro by Jack Davis; 1-30, 111-172).
Marrin. “Homeland Security and the Analysis of Foreign Intelligence.” MarkleFoundation Task Force Background Paper. 2002. 6-12.
 
Johnston. Intro, Ch 1-2, 8. Analytic Culture in the US IC. 2005. xiiii-xx, 1-29, 97-106
MacEachin. The Tradecraft of Analysis. US Intelligence at the Crossroads. 1995.63-85.1
 
Watanabe. “Fifteen Axioms for Intelligence Analysts.” CIA/Studies. 1997. 45-47.
Selections from CIA’s Compendium of Analytic Tradecraft Notes. 1-41.
CIA Tradecraft Review. Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving IA. 1-42.
ODNI ICD 203: Analytic Standards. 2007. 1-5.
Week 4: Is Intelligence Analysis an Art or a Science?
Folker. “The Art or Science Debate” in “Intelligence Analysis in Theater JointIntelligence Centers: An Experiment in Applying Structured Methods.” JMIC. 2000.6-15.
Random. Intelligence as a Science. CIA/Studies. (1957) 75-79.
Heuer. “Adapting Academic Methods and Models to Governmental Needs.”Quantitative Approaches to Political Intelligence: The CIA Experience. 1978. 1-10.
Ben-Israel. "Philosophy and Methodology of Intelligence: The Logic of EstimateProcess." Intelligence and National Security 4, no. 4 (Oct. 1989): (660-718).
Johnston. A Taxonomy of Intelligence Variables Analytic Culture in the US IC 2005.33-44.
Brooks and the Art of Intelligence Analysis (3 articles from 2003 to 2005). 1-8.
Collier. “A Pragmatic Approach to Developing Intelligence Analysts.” DIJ. 2005. 17-35.
Marrin. “Intelligence Analysis: Structured Methods or Intuition?” AIJ. 25/1. (2007).7-16.
How Does this Art/Science Debate Affect Evaluation of Analysis?
Wheaton and Chido. Evaluating Intelligence. Competitive Intelligence Magazine.2007. 19-23.
Russell. The Subjectivity of Intelligence Analysis and Implications for the US National Security Strategy. SAIS Review. (2004). 147-162.
Lowenthal. Towards a Reasonable Standard for Analysis INS 23/3. 2008. 303-315.
Week 5: How Much Does Analytic Knowledge/Expertise Matter?
Heuer. Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. Tools for Thinking. 31-109.
Russell Ch. 6: Analysts Who Are Not Experts. 119-148.
Stewart. What is a Generalist?. CIA’s Studies in Intelligence. 1958. 1-5.
Garst & Gross. On Becoming an Intelligence Analyst. Defense Intelligence Jrl. 1997.47-58.
Betts Ch3 Theory Traps: Expertise as an Enemy. Enemies of Intelligence 2007 53-65.
Marrin CIA’s Kent School-Improving Training for New Analysts IJIC 2003 609-637.
Miller. Improving All-Source IA: Elevate Knowledge. IJIC 21/2. 2008. 337-354.
Marrin Adding Value to the Intelligence Product. Handbook of Intelligence Studies2006 199-210.
Week 6: Doing Analysis in Teams: Strengths and Weaknesses
Johnston. Integrating Methodologists into Teams of Experts. 61-73. .
Heuer. Small Group Processes for Intelligence Analysis. Working paper. 1-38.2
 
Hackman and O’Connor. Team Approaches to Intelligence Analysis. 2008. 2-26.
More readings on analytic teams TBD
Week 7: The Policy-Analyst Relationship: Overview and Problems
Kent: Producers and Consumers of Intelligence. Strategic Intelligence… . 1949. 180-206.
Hilsman. “Intelligence and Policy-Making in Foreign Affairs.” World Politics. 1953.1-45.
“Intelligence and Policy: The Evolving Relationship.” CIA. 2004. 1-17.
(G&B) McLaughlin. Serving the National Policymaker. 71-81.
(G&B) Treverton. IA: Between “Politicization” and Irrelevance. 91-104.
Immerman. “Intelligence and Strategy.” Diplomatic History. 2008. 1-23.
Week 8: The Policy-Analyst Relationship, Part 2: Possible Solutions
 National Estimates: An Assessment of the Product and the Process. CIA. 1977. 23-50
Gates. The CIA and American Foreign Policy. Foreign Affairs 1987-88. 66/2. 215-30.
Blackwill and Davis. Policymaker’s Perspective on IA. CIA/Studies. 1995. 1-12.
Davis. “Paul Wolfowitz on Intelligence Policy-Relations.” CIA/Studies (1996). 35-42.
Davis. IA & Policymaking: Views of Ambassador Cohen. CIA/Studies. 1995. 1-7.
(G&B) Steinberg The Policymaker’s Perspective-Transparency and Partnership 82-90
Peterson. The Challenge for the Political Analyst. CIA/Studies. 1-6.
Armstrong. Ways to Make Analysis Relevant but Not Prescriptive CIA/Studies 2002.
Murphy & Smith. Making IA Responsive to Policy Concerns Studies. 1973. 1-6.
Gries. New Links between Intelligence and Policy. CIA/Studies. 34/2. 1990. 1-6.
Marrin. “At Arm’s Length or At the Elbow?” IJIC. 20/3. 2007. 401–414.
Week 9: Enduring Challenges
(G&B) Bruce. The Missing Link: The Analyst—Collector Relationship. 191-210.
Russell Ch. 5: Spies Who Do Not Deliver. 95-118.
(G&B) Bruce and Bennett. Foreign D&D: Analytical Imperatives. 122-137.
(G&B) Bruce. Making Analysis More Reliable: Why Epist. Matters to Intelligence171-190.
(G&B) Davis. Why Bad Things Happen to Good Analysts. 157-170.
(G&B) George. The Art of Strategy and Intelligence. 107-121.
Gates. Guarding Against Politicization. Studies in Intelligence. 1992. 5-13.
(G&B) Thomas. US Military Intelligence Analysis: Old and New Challenges. 138-154.
Week 10: Diagnosis and Prescription
Marrin & Clemente. “Improving Intelligence Analysis by Looking to the MedicalProfession.” IJIC. (2005) 707–729.3

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Stephen Marrin added this note
This is the content of the university syllabus cited in the 2011 National Academy of Sciences report on intelligence analysis (Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, 2011, page 35), and provided the foundation for the 2011 Routledge book “Improving Intelligence Analysis: Bridging the Gap between Scholarship and Practice.”

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