Should the broader and less exclusionary concept of self-initiated violent actors be adopted we mustthen identify potential indicators. Most of these are not new but they have been adjusted to reflect thisnew thought process for the identification of type specific violent actors.As noted earlier, while some of the typical methods used to identify potential violent actors areimpaired by virtue of their self driven behavior, we can look at a SIVAs observable conduct for potentialindicators. This is provided with the obvious caveats that these are potential indicators; violence cannotbe predicted with certainty but potential can be assessed. Their presence or absence is not an absoluteindicator one way or the other; this is not a clinical or diagnostic tool but a general guide.
For the sake of brevity I have referenced Al Qaida; however these potential indicators can be translated to any parent group of similar construct.
Potential SIVA Behavioral Indicators
-Have they expressed a conviction to engage in violence?-Has the individual shown a marked change in behavior following a significant victory by Al Qaida?This can include attacks, media releases, favorable coverage or other positive incidents-Has the individual shown a marked change in behavior following a significant loss by Al Qaida?This can include the death of a major player in AQ, battlefield losses, disruption of an attack and the like-Is there a change in behavior or activities leading up to a significant date?Included would be September 11
, July 4
, January 25
and May 4
.-Has previous rhetoric changed in frequency, tone or message?-Immersion in materials related to violent Jihad-Alignment with proselytizers of violence
In cases where the SIVA intends to commit a suicide attack there may be additional potentialindicators such as:
-Agitated or excited state quickly changing to an apparent calm demeanor.-Gifting of important or valuable possessions-Marked change in appearance such as shaving of a long worn beard-Writing of a will, filming of a goodbye video or similar acts