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Commodity Weekly 13072011

Commodity Weekly 13072011

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Published by: timurrs on Jul 13, 2011
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Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Wednesday, 13 July 2011
Technical Outlook
Commodity Weekly Technicals
 
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Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Wednesday, 13 July 2011
Technical Outlook
Cotton –aggressive sell has reached uptrend and FiboCottonCorn –has reached initial target of 618, still viewed as a potential topCornNew lownotconfirmedbyRSIICE ECX Emission Dec 2011Negative biaswhilecapped273/74NY CoffeeIs about to trade into new highs. Spot Gold in Euros trades in new all-time highs above the 1100 levelSpot Gold:Bid in range, capable of challenging the 2593 downtrendLME Zinc:Rebound off 200 day ma expected to struggle 994.50ICE Gasoil:Neutral to slightly negative below 4.42NYMEX Natural Gas:Sitting on May lowLME Aluminium:Erosion of 5 month uptrend sees market eye the 10190 peak.LME Copper:Market maintains rebound from key support 21431/21115 (200 week ma) and we look for further strengthLME Nickel:Focus on the 3.20 resistanceRBOB Gasoline:Rally expected to stall 3.15/20.NYMEX Heating Oil:Market approaching Fibo resistance at 121.72ICE Brent Crude Oil:Focus on near term resistance at 99.76/103.39NYMEX Light Crude Oil:Rally has stalled at 55 day ma and is expected to retest support.S&P GSCI TR Index:
Short term view (1-3 weeks)Market
 
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Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Wednesday, 13 July 2011
S&P GSCI Total Return Index
S&P GSCI Total Return Index Daily Chart
Rally has stalled at 55 day ma and is expected to retest support.
The S&P GSCI index saw a neat rebound off the 55 weekma at 4828 and the 4745 January 2010 high. This support,together with the 50% retracement at 4775 (of the movehigher seen from mid 2010), offers strong support and weand not surprised that it has provoked a rebound.The rally has so far been thwarted by the 55 day ma at5263.This together with the highs seen in May and June at5400/02 offers tough near term resistance and we wouldallow for initial failure. The market will need to regain thiszone to restore upside pressure (this is currently notfavoured).We are cautious at this stage –the downside measurementfrom the 5400-5015 range extends further to 4630 and weare currently unable to rule this out.From a longer term perspective, following the erosion ofkey resistance offered by the 5045 2007 low, an upsidemeasured target to 6124 remains in place. This will remainthe case while above the January high at 4745. Below herewill neutralise this outlook.
55 day ma at 5263

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