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Table Of Contents

1. Introduction
1.1 Report Structure
1.2 Aims and Objectives
1.3 Scope
1.3.1 A Nutritious Diet
1.3.2 Food Availability
1.3.3 Other Elements of Food Security
1.4 Context
1.4.1 Climate Change
1.4.2 Oil
1.4.3 Fertilisers
1.4.4 Population
2. Methodology
2.1 Food requirements for a nutritious diet
Figure 2-1: The Australian Guide to Healthy Eating
2.2 Qualitative Scenario Development
2.3 Quantitative Scenario Modelling
2.3.1 The Australian Stocks and Flows Framework
2.3.2 History and Previous Use
2.3.3 Working with the ASFF: ‘Tensions’
2.3.4 What about Prices?
Figure 2-3: Major Components and Information Flows in the ASFF
3. Results
3.1 Estimated food requirements for a nutritionally adequate food supply
3.1.1 Selecting foods to represent each food group
3.1.2 Selecting population categories for assessment of nutrition implications
3.1.3 Determining the number of recommended serves for each food group
3.1.4 Estimating the amounts of foodstuff required
3.2 Qualitative Scenarios – Structure and Storylines
3.2.1 Identifying Dynamics of Change
3.2.2 Divergence
3.2.3 Scenario Descriptions
3.3 Quantitative Scenarios
3.3.1 The Background Scenario
Figure 3-3: Feedback Processes in the ASFF
Figure 3-4: Other foods (not adjusted in scenarios)
3.3.2 Variables – Translating the Scenarios
Table 3-5: Summary of High-Level Scenario Settings
3.3.3 Adjustment
Figure 3-5: Victorian Land Use (Adjustment)
Figure 3-6: Victorian Electricity Demand / Use (Adjustment)
Figure 3-7: Victorian Electricity Production (Adjustment)
Figure 3-10: Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Adjustment)
Figure 3-11: Australian Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Adjustment)
Figure 3-12: Net Food (Adjustment)17
3.3.4 Time to Take Control
Figure 3-13: Victorian Land Use (Control)
Figure 3-14: Victorian Electricity Demand / Use (Control)
Figure 3-15: Victorian Electricity Production (Control)
Figure 3-17: Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Control)
Figure 3-18: Australian Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Control)
Figure 3-19: Net Food (Control)
3.3.5 DIY
Figure 3-20: Victorian Land Use (DIY)
Figure 3-21: Victorian Electricity Demand / Use (DIY)
Figure 3-22: Victorian Electricity Production (DIY)
Figure 3-26: Australian Greenhouse Gas Emissions (DIY)
Figure 3-27: Net Food (DIY)
Figure 3-28: Diversion of Food Crops to Biofuels (DIY)
3.3.6 Comparative Results
Figure 3-29: Net Environmental Flows (All)
Figure 3-30: Net Oil Import Volume (All)
Figure 3-31: Net Phosphate Import Volume (All)
Figure 3-34: Unemployment Rate (All)
4. Discussion
4.1 Challenges to Food Availability
4.1.1 Production
4.1.2 Making Food Available to Consumers
4.1.3 Easing or Increasing Tensions
4.2 Emissions, Environment and Resource Constraints
4.2.1 Land
4.2.2 Water and Environmental Flows
4.2.3 Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Figure 4-1: Greenhouse Gas Emissions (All)
Table 4-5: Achieved Emissions Reduction (On 1990 levels)
4.2.4 Oil
4.2.5 Fertiliser (Phosphorus)
4.3 Economic Structure
4.4 Vulnerabilities
4.4.1 Global Trade
4.4.2 Extreme Weather Events and Natural Disasters
4.4.3 Biodiversity & Biosecurity
4.4.4 Population
4.5 Opportunities – The Sweet Spot
4.6 A Fine Balance – Ethics
5.1 Research
5.1.1 Development of Methodology
5.1.2 Research Extension – What Next?
5.2 Policy Implications
5.2.1 Informing Decision Making
5.2.2 Specific Policy Tools
References
Appendix 2: Scenario Influences
Appendix 3: Additional National Results
Appendix 4: Food Surplus and Deficit Graphs
Appendix 5: Water Regions in the ASFF
Appendix 6: Priorities for Further Methodology Development
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Food Supply Scenarios - Full

Food Supply Scenarios - Full

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Published by Kirsten Larsen

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Published by: Kirsten Larsen on Jul 15, 2011
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12/26/2012

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