Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Methodology
McLaughlin & Associates partnered with Pat Caddell to conduct this bipartisan poll of 600 likely American Jewish voters between June 21-23, 2011. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professional interviewers. Interview selection was random within predetermined units. These units were structured to correlate with Jewish population census. This poll of 600 likely American Jewish voters has an accuracy of +/- 4.0% at a 95% confidence interval.
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2008 Vote for President: Obama (65%), McCain (24%), Other (2%) & Did Not VoteNot Registered Then (3%)
Generic Vote for Congress: Democratic Candidate (58%), Republican (26%) & Undecided (17%) Religiously: Reform (30%), Conservative (27%), Non-Practicing (22%), OrthodoxHassidic (10%), Other (7%) & Atheist (3%)
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Major Findings
1. Despite a slight decline from a year ago, President Obamas opinion ratings remain strong among American Jewish voters. A. About two-thirds (64% to 31%) have a favorable opinion of President Obama. A net 7-point decrease from his opinion rating in April of last year (67% favorable to 27% unfavorable). B. President Obamas job approval tracks closely with his opinion rating (63% approve to 35% disapprove). A net 6-point decline since April of last year (66% to 31%). C. Nearly two-thirds (65% to 30%) approve of the job President Obama is doing regarding Americas defense and security.
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Major Findings
2. The majority believes things in the United States are headed off on the wrong track. The plurality is primarily concerned about economic issues and when it comes to the most important issue facing the American Jewish community, the top priority is Israel. A. By a 2 to 1 ratio (56% to 25%), the majority believes things in the U.S. are headed off on the wrong track. B. Generally speaking, when deciding their vote for President, the most important issue category is economic (44%) followed by social (31%), foreign affairs (14%), moral (4%) and other local issues (1%). C. The most important issue facing the American Jewish community are (top verbatim responses): Israel (15%), anti-Semitism (11%), economic situation (8%), assimilation (6%), Obama/Israel policy (4%) and terrorism (3%).
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Major Findings
3. American Jewish voters are overwhelmingly concerned about the security of Israel. The overall sense is that the state of Israel is besieged. A. Nearly every Jewish voter is concerned (93%) about Israel being threatened by Arab nations and Iran that want to destroy Israel. Three-quarters (75%) are very concerned. B. The majority thinks the protests in the Arab World are more dangerous (54%) than good (21%) for Israel. C. American Jewish voters believe Iran is the top threat to Israel. Top verbatim responses: Iran (23%), Arab Countries/Neighbors (14%), Palestinians (9%) and Barack Obama (5%). D. If sanctions against Iran fail, and Israel were to attack Iran to stop them from developing a nuclear weapon, most Jewish voters (72% to 16%) would view it as an act of self-defense than an act of aggression. E. Fox News (20%) and CNN (18%) are the most trusted news organizations to report international news and Israel fairly.
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Major Findings
4. There is a majority consensus among American Jewish voters on key Israel policies. A. An overwhelming majority (81% to 8%) disapproves of the U.N. voting to declare a Palestinian state that refuses to renounce terrorists and is linked to terrorist organizations. B. Four in five (81%) are against Israel being forced to return to its pre-1967 borders, which were susceptible to attack. C. Nearly three-quarters (73%) believe Jerusalem should remain the undivided capital of Israel. Only 8% thinks the United States should force Israel to give parts of Jerusalem, including Christian and Jewish holy sites, to the Palestinian Authority. D. Two-thirds (64%) think that if the Palestinian Authority were given their own state in the West Bank, part of Jerusalem, and Gaza, they would continue their campaign of terror to destroy Israel. Only 16% thinks they would live peacefully with Israel. E. An overwhelming majority (88% to 5) agrees with the position that before the Palestinian Authority is given their own country, they must first recognize Israels right to exist as a Jewish state. F. American Jewish voters are strongly favorable to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (65% favorable to 20% unfavorable).
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Survey Highlights
5. American Jewish voters have mixed feelings about President Obamas policies regarding Israel. Significant segments of Jewish voters are very concerned about the Presidents policies towards Israel and their future implications. A. Regarding the Palestinian-Israel conflict, 43% is unsure who President Obama favors. Among those with an opinion, more Jewish voters think he favors the Palestinians (31% to 26%). B. The plurality (46%) thinks President Obamas polices dont endanger the security of Israel but nearly 2 in 5 (38%) thinks his policies do put Israel in danger. C. Jewish voters are split on whether they trust President Obama to order the American Ambassador to the U.N. to veto any resolution which declares that the Palestinian Authority government is a legitimate Palestinian state although they refuse to renounce terrorism and are still linked to terrorism (41% yes/trust vs. 40% no/dont trust).
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Survey Highlights
6. American Jewish voters have concerns about security here in the United States. A. There are mixed opinions about President Obamas policy of outreach to the Muslim world. One-third (34%) says his policy has increased the security of the United States while 31% believes it has decreased our security and 35% doesnt know. B. Three-quarters (76%) are concerned about Islamic terrorism in the United States being caused by American Muslims. Over one-third (38%) is very concerned. C. If reports are true that Iran has plans to place missiles in Venezuela, the plurality approves (44% to 32%) using the U.S. military to destroy the bases if economic and diplomatic sanctions on Venezuela dont work. D. Six in ten (58%) disapprove of building a Mosque near the site of Grand Zero in New York City, which is funded by wealthy foreign Arabs. Only 28% approve.
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Survey Highlights
7. Among this heavily, most Democratic group, President Obamas re-elect numbers are surprisingly soft. It appears the Presidents policies and stances on Israel and the Middle East have caused American Jewish voters to rethink their support for the President. A. 65% claim they voted for President Obama in 2008, 64% have a favorable opinion of the President and 63% approve of the job he is doing as President; however, only two in five (43%) would vote to re-elect President Obama. The plurality (48%) would consider someone else and 9% are undecided. B. In April of last year, President Obama had a +11 job approval rating on handling Americas relations with Israel (50% to 39%). Now his job rating is 7points upside down (43% to 50%), which is a net loss of 18-points. C. Considering that President Obama has proposed a return to the 1967 borders, dividing Jerusalem, and allowing the right of return for Palestinian Arabs to Israel, two-thirds (67% to 24%) are concerned about President Obamas policies towards Israel if he were re-elected.
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10
4/10
6/11
Favorable
Unfavorable
67
27
64
31
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11
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12
4/10
6/11
Approve
Disapprove
66
31
63
35
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13
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Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing regarding Americas defense and security?
4/10
6/11
Approve
Disapprove
68
26
65
30
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15
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16
4/10
6/11
Right
Wrong
49
36
25
56
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17
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18
Generally speaking, when deciding your vote for President, what broad issue area are you most likely to focus on in deciding who you will vote for? 1. Social issues like health care, education and the environment 2. Economic issues like taxes, rising prices, government spending, the deficit, debt, the economy and creating jobs 3. Foreign affairs and national defense issues such as terrorism and our policies in Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Israel 4. Moral issues like pro-life, prayer in school, and declining moral values 5. Other local issues like crime, drugs, welfare reform and immigration
50 45
40 35 31 44
30 25
20 15
14
7
10 5
0
Economic
American Jewish Voters June 2011
4 1
Social Foreign Affairs Moral Other Social DK/Refused
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19
Specifically, what is the most important issue facing the American Jewish community today? (Top Verbatim Responses)
Israel
AntiSemitism Economic Situ. Assimilation Obama/Israel Pol. Terrorism Unemployment Middle East Situ. Israel/Palestine
15 11 8
6 4
3 3 3
2 2
33
10
15
20
25
30
35
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20
How concerned are you about Israel being threatened by Arab nations and Iran that want to destroy Israel?
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Concern about Arab Nations and Iran that want to destroy Israel
Concerned
Not Concerned
Concerned
Not Concerned
Concerned
Not Concerned
TOTAL Northeast Midwest South West Massachusetts New Jersey New York Pennsylvania Illinois Florida Maryland California
93 92 91 96 92 93 94 90 93 85 98 95 92
6 7 7 3 6 4 2 10 4 15 2 5 6
Vote Republican Cong. Vote Democrat Cong. Vote Undecided Cong. Re-Elect Obama Consider Someone Else Right Direction Wrong Track Economic Issues Social Issues Foreign Affairs/Defense Moral Issues Local Issues Fav Obama
95 92 90 92 94 88 94 92 95 93 86 100 92
3 7 8 7 5 11 5 7 4 7 14 0 7
Obama Favor Israel Obama Favor Palestinian Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative Ticket Splitter Belong to Synagogue No Synagogue Family/Friends in Israel None in Israel
93 98 95 93 91 93 92 94 94 94 91 95 90
7 1 4 6 8 6 7 5 6 5 8 4 8
Rest of Country
Orthodox/Hasidic Conservative Reform Non-Practicing Very Religious Somewhat Religious Not Religious Voted McCain Voted Obama
95
92 96 93 93 90 95 91 97 92
4
9 4 5 6 10 4 7 2 6
Unfav Obama
Approve Obama Job Disapprove Obama Job App. Obama US Security Disap. Obama US Security Approve Obama Israel Disap. Obama - Israel
94
93 94 93 93 92 94
5
6 5 6 6 7 5
Under 40
41-55 56-65 Over 65 Men Women
88
94 91 96 91 95
12
7 8 2 7 5
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22
Do you think that the protests in the Arab World are good or dangerous for Israel?
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23
Do you think that the protests in the Arab World are good or dangerous for Israel?
Good TOTAL Northeast Midwest South West Massachusetts New Jersey New York Pennsylvania Illinois Florida Maryland California Rest of Country Orthodox/Hasidic Conservative Reform Non-Practicing Very Religious Somewhat Religious Not Religious Voted McCain Voted Obama 21 22 24 20 20 22 23 23 14 35 13 14 20 23 12 23 24 20 18 21 25 12 26 Dangerous 53 53 53 54 55 41 55 55 50 42 69 24 54 54 71 55 51 52 67 55 47 71 46 Vote Republican Cong. Vote Democrat Cong. Vote Undecided Cong. Re-Elect Obama Consider Someone Else Right Direction Wrong Track Economic Issues Social Issues Foreign Affairs/Defense Moral Issues Local Issues Fav Obama Unfav Obama Approve Obama Job Disapprove Obama Job App. Obama US Security Disap. Obama US Security Approve Obama Israel Disap. Obama - Israel Good 11 27 19 30 14 30 16 20 30 8 18 0 28 11 26 11 27 11 34 12 Dangerous 72 45 57 43 63 42 64 58 42 74 55 60 44 72 46 69 46 73 41 65 Obama Favor Israel Obama Favor Palestinian Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative Ticket Splitter Belong to Synagogue No Synagogue Family/Friends in Israel None in Israel Under 40 41-55 56-65 Over 65 Men Women Good 33 7 9 26 20 27 23 10 18 21 22 20 23 21 22 27 18 25 18 Dangerous 50 74 77 49 51 42 53 76 58 54 54 55 53 50 57 50 57 48 59
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24
23
10
9
5 5 4 4 3 3 3 19 0 5 10 15 20 25
25
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If sanctions against Iran fail, and Israel were to attack Iran to stop them from developing a nuclear weapon, in your opinion, would this be an act of self defense, or an act of aggression?
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26
TOTAL Northeast Midwest South West Massachusetts New Jersey New York Pennsylvania Illinois Florida Maryland California Rest of Country Orthodox/Hasidic Conservative Reform Non-Practicing Very Religious Somewhat Religious Not Religious Voted McCain Voted Obama
72 73 79 73 64 59 72 76 61 81 79 71 65 72 80 77 70 66 78 72 68 83 68
16 14 15 14 23 15 15 14 18 15 10 10 24 18 5 13 20 20 6 19 17 8 20
Vote Republican Cong. Vote Democrat Cong. Vote Undecided Cong. Re-Elect Obama Consider Someone Else Right Direction Wrong Track Economic Issues Social Issues Foreign Affairs/Defense Moral Issues Local Issues Fav Obama Unfav Obama Approve Obama Job Disapprove Obama Job App. Obama US Security Disap. Obama US Security Approve Obama Israel Disap. Obama - Israel
81 68 72 68 78 67 75 76 64 83 64 80 66 84 67 81 69 80 67 80
9 21 12 19 13 19 16 13 24 9 18 20 21 7 19 10 18 11 23 10
Obama Favor Israel Obama Favor Palestinian Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative Ticket Splitter Belong to Synagogue No Synagogue Family/Friends in Israel None in Israel Under 40 41-55 56-65 Over 65 Men Women
67 87 80 69 75 65 77 79 73 77 66 76 68 74 67 70 76 73 71
27 5 9 18 16 21 15 10 15 13 21 13 20 16 24 15 12 16 16
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27
Which of the following news organizations do you trust most to report international news and Israel fairly and thoroughly?
OrthHas Non Prac Vote Cong Und. ReElct New Pres Vote New
Cons
Ref
REP
DEM
IND
FOX NEWS
CNN NBC/MSNBC PBS BBC ABC CBS COMEDY CENTRAL BLOGS MTV DK/REF
20
18 14 11 7 5 5 2 2 0 15
31
9 12 5 2 7 7 2 2 0 25
21
17 16 9 3 8 5 1 3 0 18
18
24 12 11 11 4 6 1 0 0 13
15
16 18 16 10 4 3 5 2 0 11
11
17 13 12 3 12 9 1 2 0 22
6
22 19 17 7 5 4 3 2 0 16
36
15 10 7 7 4 6 1 1 0 13
10
26 18 10 9 5 6 3 0 0 13
59
10 5 4 3 4 4 0 1 0 10
7
23 19 15 9 6 4 3 2 0 14
26
15 11 7 7 5 7 2 2 0 18
23
17 15 11 10 3 5 2 1 0 14
18
20 14 11 5 7 5 2 2 0 16
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28
Do you approve or disapprove of the United Nations voting to declare a Palestinian state that refuses to renounce terrorist and is linked to terrorist organizations?
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29
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30
Should Israel be forced to return to its pre-1967 borders which were susceptible to attack at points where the country was only 8 miles wide?
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31
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32
Should Jerusalem remain the undivided capital of Israel or should the United States force Israel to give parts of Jerusalem, including Christian and Jewish holy sites, to the Palestinian Authority? Jerusalem should remain the undivided capital of Israel. OR, The United States should force Israel to give parts of Jerusalem, including Christian and Jewish holy sites, to the Palestinian Authority.
4/10
6/11
Undivided
Divide
64
13
73
8
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33
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34
Do you think that if the Palestinian Authority were given their own state in the West Bank, part of Jerusalem, and Gaza, they would live peacefully with Israel or continue their campaign of terror to destroy Israel?
4/10
6/11
Peacefully
Destroy Israel
19
62
16
64
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35
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36
Do you agree or disagree with the position that before the Palestinian Authority is given their own country they must first recognize Israels right to exist as a Jewish state?
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37
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38
4/10
6/11
Favorable
Unfavorable
60
29
65
20
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39
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40
Regarding the Palestinian-Israeli conflict would you say that President Obama favors Israel, or favors the Palestinians?
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41
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42
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43
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44
Do you trust President Barack Obama to order the American Ambassador to the United Nations to veto any U.N. resolution which declares that the Palestinian Authority government is a legitimate Palestinian state although they refuse to renounce terrorism and are still linked to terrorism?
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45
Trust Obama to order the U.S. Ambassador to veto U.N. resolution against Palestinian Authority government
Yes TOTAL Northeast Midwest South West Massachusetts New Jersey New York Pennsylvania Illinois Florida Maryland California Rest of Country Orthodox/Hasidic Conservative Reform Non-Practicing Very Religious Somewhat Religious Not Religious Voted McCain Voted Obama 41 43 44 37 40 59 51 41 32 35 37 43 43 39 37 37 43 46 28 40 52 18 52 No 40 39 27 46 42 19 32 42 43 31 50 33 38 42 53 43 35 37 59 40 29 69 26 Vote Republican Cong. Vote Democrat Cong. Vote Undecided Cong. Re-Elect Obama Consider Someone Else Right Direction Wrong Track Economic Issues Social Issues Foreign Affairs/Defense Moral Issues Local Issues Fav Obama Unfav Obama Approve Obama Job Disapprove Obama Job App. Obama US Security Disap. Obama US Security Approve Obama Israel Disap. Obama - Israel Yes 17 55 32 61 25 58 30 38 56 31 18 100 56 14 56 17 52 21 63 25 No 68 25 46 19 58 22 52 46 23 55 55 0 23 74 22 71 28 65 16 63 Obama Favor Israel Obama Favor Palestinian Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative Ticket Splitter Belong to Synagogue No Synagogue Family/Friends in Israel None in Israel Under 40 41-55 56-65 Over 65 Men Women Yes 63 17 13 52 36 60 36 18 31 44 40 48 35 40 36 49 41 45 38 No 21 72 71 29 42 24 42 64 46 39 41 37 42 43 44 34 38 39 40
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46
President Barack Obama is committed to a policy of outreach to the Muslim world. Knowing this, do you think this policy has increased or decreased the security of the United States?
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47
Obama policy of outreach to the Muslim world increase or decrease U.S. Security
Increase Decrease Increase Decrease Increase Decrease
TOTAL Northeast Midwest South West Massachusetts New Jersey New York Pennsylvania Illinois Florida Maryland California Rest of Country Orthodox/Hasidic Conservative Reform Non-Practicing Very Religious Somewhat Religious Not Religious Voted McCain Voted Obama
34 34 37 27 37 52 36 30 36 27 21 38 35 39 32 25 37 40 25 33 39 17 41
31 34 27 39 19 22 32 37 29 27 42 14 20 32 49 40 25 19 46 32 23 63 18
Vote Republican Cong. Vote Democrat Cong. Vote Undecided Cong. Re-Elect Obama Consider Someone Else Right Direction Wrong Track Economic Issues Social Issues Foreign Affairs/Defense Moral Issues Local Issues Fav Obama Unfav Obama Approve Obama Job Disapprove Obama Job App. Obama US Security Disap. Obama US Security Approve Obama Israel Disap. Obama - Israel
19 42 28 47 24 47 28 27 49 23 41 0 43 15 44 15 41 20 48 21
61 17 33 13 49 20 41 37 20 47 27 0 17 62 15 60 20 58 17 46
Obama Favor Israel Obama Favor Palestinian Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative Ticket Splitter Belong to Synagogue No Synagogue Family/Friends in Israel None in Israel Under 40 41-55 56-65 Over 65 Men Women
48 14 16 40 31 44 33 20 26 32 37 34 33 38 36 36 28 35 32
19 60 63 19 39 15 33 56 40 32 30 32 31 35 36 27 31 33 29
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48
How concerned are you about Islamic terrorism in the United States by American Muslims?
4/10
6/11
Concerned
Not Concerned
93
6
76
19
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49
Not Concerned
Concerned
Not Concerned
Concerned
Not Concerned
TOTAL Northeast Midwest South West Massachusetts New Jersey New York Pennsylvania
76 77 66 75 80 78 72 80 64
19
17 28 19 17 19 19 15 32
Vote Republican Cong. Vote Democrat Cong. Vote Undecided Cong. Re-Elect Obama Consider Someone Else Right Direction Wrong Track Economic Issues Social Issues
92 68 80 66 84 61 85 82 66
5 27 13 29 11 32 11 13 30
Obama Favor Israel Obama Favor Palestinian Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative Ticket Splitter
68 91 93 73 73 66 80 87 82
28 6 2 22 23 29 17 6 14
Illinois
Florida Maryland California Rest of Country Orthodox/Hasidic Conservative
54
84 57 80 77 88 81
35
11 38 17 19 9 13
Foreign Affairs/Defense
Moral Issues Local Issues Fav Obama Unfav Obama Approve Obama Job Disapprove Obama Job
86
86 80 69 91 69 89
11
9 20 26 6 25 8
Belong to Synagogue
No Synagogue Family/Friends in Israel None in Israel Under 40 41-55 56-65
76
77 77 76 72 74 75
20
18 19 19 23 20 19
Reform
Non-Practicing Very Religious Somewhat Religious Not Religious Voted McCain Voted Obama
71
70 80 78 71 91 70
24
25 14 17 24 6 24
81
89 64 88
24
9 31 9
Over 65
Men Women
79
77 76
18
19 19
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50
If reports are true that Iran has plans to place missiles in Venezuela, would you approve or disapprove of the following? If economic and diplomatic sanctions on Venezuela do not work, we should use the American military to destroy the bases.
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51
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52
Do you approve or disapprove of building a Mosque near the site of Ground Zero in New York City which is funded by wealthy foreign Arabs?
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53
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54
Would you vote to re-elect Barack Obama as President or would you consider voting for someone else?
4/10
6/11
Re-elect
Someone Else
42
46
43
48
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55
Re-Elect Obama
Obama TOTAL Northeast Midwest South West Massachusetts New Jersey New York Pennsylvania Illinois Florida Maryland California Rest of Country Orthodox/Hasidic Conservative Reform Non-Practicing Very Religious Somewhat Religious Not Religious Voted McCain Voted Obama 43 42 49 39 48 48 45 39 46 50 34 57 50 42 14 43 49 48 29 43 50 3 63 New 48 51 43 49 42 44 45 53 46 50 52 33 40 48 78 47 39 46 62 48 41 93 28 Vote Republican Cong. Vote Democrat Cong. Vote Undecided Cong. Re-Elect Obama Consider Someone Else Right Direction Wrong Track Economic Issues Social Issues Foreign Affairs/Defense Moral Issues Local Issues Fav Obama Unfav Obama Approve Obama Job Disapprove Obama Job App. Obama US Security Disap. Obama US Security Approve Obama Israel Disap. Obama - Israel Obama 4 69 15 100 0 76 24 31 67 30 36 40 64 4 66 5 59 12 70 20 New 93 22 66 0 100 17 69 59 26 64 55 20 25 93 23 92 32 80 21 72 Obama Favor Israel Obama Favor Palestinian Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative Ticket Splitter Belong to Synagogue No Synagogue Family/Friends in Israel None in Israel Under 40 41-55 56-65 Over 65 Men Women Obama 68 12 2 64 25 71 37 9 14 44 43 45 41 32 39 51 45 43 44 New 28 82 95 28 60 22 54 82 69 47 49 45 51 61 52 41 44 49 46
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56
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing handling Americas relations with Israel?
4/10
6/11
Approve
Disapprove
50
39
43
50
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57
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58
Considering what President Obama has proposed for Israel just over a year before his 2012 re-election campaign - a return to the 1967 borders, dividing Jerusalem, and allowing the right of return for Palestinian Arabs to Israel - how concerned would you be about President Obama's policies towards Israel if he were re-elected and did not have to worry about another election?
80 70
60
67
50 42 40
30
24
24 9
20 10
0
CONCERNED
American Jewish Voters June 2011
Very
Somewhat
NOT CONCERNED
DK/REF.
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59
Not Concerned
Concerned
Not Concerned
Concerned
Not Concerned
TOTAL Northeast Midwest South West Massachusetts New Jersey New York Pennsylvania Illinois Florida Maryland California
67 66 59 70 68 59 51 69 64 46 71 62 65
25 25 32 22 21 22 40 24 14 42 18 33 24
Vote Republican Cong. Vote Democrat Cong. Vote Undecided Cong. Re-Elect Obama Consider Someone Else Right Direction Wrong Track Economic Issues Social Issues Foreign Affairs/Defense Moral Issues Local Issues Fav Obama
91 54 73 51 82 47 76 73 56 83 64 60 54
7 35 15 37 13 41 17 19 35 12 36 40 34
Obama Favor Israel Obama Favor Palestinian Republican Democrat Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative Ticket Splitter Belong to Synagogue No Synagogue Family/Friends in Israel None in Israel
51 95 91 59 69 55 68 87 82 72 62 67 67
37 2 6 30 23 33 25 10 9 21 29 26 23
Rest of Country
Orthodox/Hasidic Conservative Reform Non-Practicing Very Religious Somewhat Religious Not Religious Voted McCain Voted Obama
75
78 75 67 52 77 72 53 94 56
19
15 18 24 34 18 21 34 6 32
Unfav Obama
Approve Obama Job Disapprove Obama Job App. Obama US Security Disap. Obama US Security Approve Obama Israel Disap. Obama - Israel
92
54 90 59 86 45 89
6
34 8 31 10 42 9
Under 40
41-55 56-65 Over 65 Men Women
71
69 56 72 65 68
26
19 35 20 25 23
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60