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Table Of Contents

Uses of Forecasts
Elements of a Good Forecast
Steps in the Forecasting Process
Types of Forecasts
Judgmental Forecasts
Associative Forecasting
Linear Regression (cont.)
Linear Model Seems Reasonable
Another Linear Regression Example
Variables: Weeks and Sales
Linear Trend Calculation
Linear Regression
Remember from Statistics
Time series
Forecast Variations
Naïve Forecasts
Uses for Naïve Forecasts
Naive Forecasts
Simple Moving Average
Note the sensitivity of forecasts
Ex: Three period moving average forecast
Exponential Smoothing
as an Weighted Average
Picking a Smoothing Constant:
Responsiveness vs. Smoothing
Picking a Smoothing Constant
Sensitivity of Forecasts
Techniques for trend
Common Nonlinear Trends
Techniques for seasonality
Different models of seasonality
Forecast Accuracy
MAD & MSE
Controlling the quality of forecast
Choosing a forecasting technique
Choosing a forecasting technique (cont.)
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Forecast

Forecast

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Published by Ccm Ortiz Seno

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Published by: Ccm Ortiz Seno on Jul 20, 2011
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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01/26/2013

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