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野村证券 2011年全球电脑记忆体行业深度研究报告-107672069

野村证券 2011年全球电脑记忆体行业深度研究报告-107672069

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Published by: Vincent Weng on Jul 20, 2011
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07/20/2011

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.W.efhlnk
the
memory
marketisclosetowhat'w'ethink'wiil~1ea,
soft
Iialildi'ng
(down
16%
~nrev,enUie
n
2.0'11F)!l
to
be
followed
byaretu
rn
to
191
ow1lh
(up
1
~,QIo
iin
201,2F).
W,ebellevathe
collapse
inPC,IDRAMIPriioes.overthepasttwoquartersi'soomiingtoanend,
gi'v'
en1he
rise
ln
f,C
memory'
content
andsupply
correction,
Furthet:!whi'letherise
of
srnartphones
and
tabletswilloontmnuetohurtDRAM
demand,
wee,xpeH:i:a
boost
toNANDdemand.Thebmgger(but:lass
appreciated)story
ls
that
this
m'eg,a-tferrnd
'will~I~ke
Iy
benefitth
e
love
r.al~
iindl
u
stry
substantla
Ily'
over
th'e
comin
gyea
rs
because
it:
rasults~na,big
bo
osttosmlconareaconsumptlon,Ouranalysmsshowsthatthetransltlonfrom
feature
phones
tosrnartphonasandlaptopswithHIDDstolaptops'wi'th
SSDs
should
~·1
t-·
b
77'O'(k1
dl2'0'
'1"
OJ'
~!I
I~A
I
t
dd
crease
S,I
moonconsumption
/'1
,'0"10
ano
zt,-
<;-0,
respe~l!lvleuy.
As
aptop
nemanc
sh[fts
to
tablets,'w'eexpeclD'IRAM
area
consurnpflon
will
decrease
by
64%!
butnetmemoryconsumptlon
(~ncIUldiin91
N,AND),
should
lncrease
by,30%,.
S,tJong
N,AIND
demand
m,ay
also
help
theDllRA.Mmarket,acap,aoily
could
shift
fromDRA,Mto
N,AINID.
Ourtop
pick
~Q
Ipl,ay
th
ls
th
eme
ls
S,a
mSUIngEI'ectron
los,
given
itts
growing
marketshare
~II
n
eo
martph
0
n
Q,E"
-0
nd
,+,.....
1....1
ets
'0
nd
'1
4
\f."
4'e"h
nO'1
0
n
lea
Ilie"
ad
Q
rsh
"l'll
n
'W'-e"
-0
reB"UY'',ers
0'"
H
lin
IX-
g
"'c,-_I'e'
~Q
C;;I,'::
1,CI,l)
'c:l.-b,
'IPI','
IL.Q'IL,:,~
lillie
,I~
~tlI:'tlIl,~.
Q'
,...1,.
'<:'
t;:.':,_,'_
'I'
'.c,~.
,'!I
I
j'lli'"
(DRAMIstablllsatlon
+
expandiingN,ANIDbusiness)andToshiba(NAND)too.
<D
Bo'ominsmartphenes,tablets
brings·
a
newR.enaiss,an'ce
~D'RAM-L-shaped
price
trend
+
furtherdlifferentiation
®
NANID-dlire,ctbeneficiary
of
sh-ftinITdemandl
NomuraA
no
horReports
examlrnne
t~
e[keythemes
arITl
dlvaIluedrivers
that
lm
nderpinour
sector
vffiewsan
d
stockrecom
merrudlaUorrrl
S
for~
thenext6to12
rna
nths,
Sto,cks,for
act.ian
St.oct
Price
Rati
ngPricebJr'g;et
SEC(005000KS)
Hynix
(OOOGEHJKS}
Toshiba('6502
J
P)Elpfda(6665JP)NTC(2408
TI)
Inot-era.(3474TT}
BUY901~O(JO1,240
j
OOOt
BUY
23,600
31
jOOOJ.-
BUY436650
NEUTRAL951
900IREDUCEij;·16.15.3IREDUCEij;·14.3
T
8
"lriltnati
ngcoverage
t
Raising
fiT
,.!,..
Lowering
PTPrices
asof
1
ecember;2IQ-10:
locsl
C1I..Jlffency'
,Analysts
C,WC,hung+82
2378:32312
c.VII,en
ung_@norm
li
a,.
comMasaya
Yamasakt,
CFA(Japan)
+81
:3
67~l31190
masaya.ya
m
a,sa,k!_@
nom
IlJ
Ul.
comSidlil,sy
Ho
(US)
+1,2122'9
,8
432'9
sidne
Y_'.
h
o@'n()mura.
com
Mare,aUo
A,hlll"
CFA(Kar,ea)
+82
2378:32317
rnarle~:llo.
a.h
n@'n()mlura.ca,mT,et,su
kazuTsuru
hamaI(Ja,pan)+813:52551S28
ErSt-SLI
k,a,zu.
ts
[j
ruhem,a
@'n()mlura.com
Anyauth,ors,
118,medOlnthi,sreplortalre
researehan,a.ystsun
lessothe.wi'seinld~cated.,See
theIi
m
p-orla
nt,
d'is,c.Ols,ures
and
,8lllallystcell1ifica,tions
011
page,s,
59
to164.
 
@.Actiion'W'eareinthemiddle
of
,8
rnegatrend-theriseoftablets
andsmartphonss.
Whil,e'wethinkthiswillidentIDRAM
demand
intheshort
term,
w'e
belleva
im,wlill
beneflt
theoverall
memoryIndustry
substantially
lntermsof
ea,rnh1Qls,orseveralyearsto
come.Sarnsun
g
Electron
lcs
j
s
best
IP
re
pa
redfor1tlh
,s
transition,~
n
OIJl
r
vi,ew"
and
OM
r
top
plck,
'W'eare
also
BU'y'ers
of
Hy~ix.and
Toshiba.
II
CatalystsTheshare
prices
of
memorynamesmovei'n
tandemw'ithmemory
prices.
Withthebottom
of
the
memorymarket
insight:,'w'eseememory'share
prices
lik,elytogather
momentum
soon.
~Anchor
th,emes
Sto,cksforact,ion
'W'e
mamntamn
BU'Yrati
I11gson
Samlsung
Ele~ronmcs,
Toshlba
and
Hynlx,Wefavour
Tielf-11memory
producersinvie'wofposi~tivesmgns
0111
'tlhe
demandlfro
nt.
Stock
RatingPrice
Price
target
Toshiba(6002JP)BUVEIpida(6665JP}NEUTRAL
436
931
1,2,40
j
OOOt
31jOOOJ.-
650
900
s.s
1'.8
SEC(005000KS)Hynix(000660KS}
BUY901;000
BUV
23,,600
'W'e
see
,8
rapid
sh~ffin
demand,_,
rom
feafura
phones
to
smartphone
and
fromPC,s
totabl
ets,
Thosewith
p
reduct
portfollios
that
can
benefit
fromthis
trans
ltl
on
shoul
d
outgrowthos,e1that
,8
reless
'w'ellpositioned.
NTC(2408
T1l)
REDUCE*16_7
~notera
('3474iT}
REDUCE*14_3
0.
Initnati
n
9
cOliJer.a~)e
t
Ra]singPT
!
o.weri
ng
PT
Prices
as
of
7
Decem
ber,
2i()';
0;IOCB~
ClJ
rrency
,Analysts
C,WC,hung+82237832312
c.~wc~ung@normu
ra,.com
<D
Bo,omin
smartphenes,
tabletsbrings,anew
R,enaiss,an,ce
The
boom
iin
srnartphones
and
tablet
pies
thatkickedoffin
2H110
shouldw'ork
posltively
foroverall
memory
demand
despite
thenegativeimpact:onIDRAM.,Accordingtoour
sillcon
area,
consumptionanalysis,
the
transltlon
fromfeature
phone
to
smartphcne,laptop'wi'th
HDD
to
laptopwimh
SSD'
should
increase
silliconconsumptionby'
7780/0'
and20'1%,respectivelly,.FromlaptoptOI
tablet,
IDRAIMarea
consumptiondecreased
by
1640/0
butnetImemory
consumption(lncludlnq
NIA,NID)
shouldincrease
by
30%,.
MasayaYamasaki,
CFA,
(Japan)
+8136703119
1
0masay-a
.ya
ma,,s,a.ld@
nomu
~a.
com
Sidn,eyHe(US)+1,2122'98432'9sidney.ho@nomlura.com
(%)
D'RAM-L-shaped
pricetrend
+
further
dlifferentiat·on
The
rise
~n
PC
memory
'lJontlent
and
DlRAM
producers'reluctance
to
rnalntaln
current:supply
shou
ld
see
PiC0
RAM
prices
stab
lllse
after
11!Q
111
F.
Forspecia,lltjtD'IRAMs,webelievethe
premium
'wi'I~1
ast
narrow'
from
2Q,11'1IF
I'
especiallyfor
mobile
D'IRAM,when3~supplyhas
expandedrapldlyof
I
ate,
Allinalii!,the
blended
DRAMpnilce
shou
I
d
fall
ra
piidIy
Ul
n1tilll1
1
Q
11Fand
decl
iine
moderately
fa
r
th
erestoft~hey'e\ar..
MarceUoAhn"CFA(Kore·a),
-¥822
3,
78B2317rna~ce
110.
a,11
n@'nomlura.com,
T,et,sukazlLI
Tsuruhama
,(Ja,pan:)
+813:52551S2S
TIeau
ka
zu.
ts
uru
hem,a
@
nomu
ra.co
m
®
NANID-dl~rectbenefIciaryofsh'"ft
ln
ITdemand
F'.oIIQwiingmobilegadgtsl'notebook.PC"s,arealsobeg~nningtoadoptNANDInash
as
the
maln
stora.gedevi'oe.The
supply-demand
isliilk'elyto
balance
outwitht.ypk:al
seasonality
in
play,
Weforecast:NANID
shipment
value
will
grow
by
21
'0/0'
in
20'11
Fand
17'%,
in20121F.,
®
Samsungstandsasour
top
p~'ck;BUYalsoToshibaandHyn~x
Gi'venthemagnltudeofth'ega,pinprocesstechnology,capexabiil~ityanddifferentiationinDRAM
product
porffollos(me"PC,IDRAIMvsspecialtyDRAMs)growingwidertha.neverbefore,'w'e·
advise
accumulatingleadingnamesonly'.W,eremterateourBUYIralingon
Sarnsunq
lEIectronlcs
(S,E.C)"
TashlbaandHyni'x~
Ou
rtoppicklsSIEe,.,lookingat
itts
growingmarketshareinsrnartphonesand
tablet
P'C,s,.and
m1s
unmatched
techno,logmcalprowessi'nkeycomponents,_mobileDRA,M,NAND"applicafionprocessorssndAMOtED'.
 
Memory~G[nba~CWChun.g
NOA\UIRA
Contents
B,attornin1Q,11F;Renaissanceahead
3
DRA,M:bad
but
already
rei
acted;
focuson
dirff:srentiation6
NAND:theernerqenoaofkillerapps,_,srnartphone,tabletandsolid-statedrive
(5,8D)1
7Investmentopinion8
D'RAM:L-shapedpricetrend
+
furthercUfferent.lation'10
DRA,Mdemand11DRA,Msupply13Capaxtodecline
by
25'%,
y-y
withnofurtherwafercapacityincrease14OutlookfurD'RAMsupply/demandbalanceand
price
tn3nd
17
NAND21
Demand:strongl
embedded
demand,
weakUSB!,
carddemand
211
Supply':,shiftingfromDRAM
to
NAND,22NANDsupply/demandoutlook.andpricetrend24
B,UYandholdtheleadinlgnames26Industrymodels,28
NANDsupplyanddemand,31Technoloqymigration,33
Latest
c10mpanyviews
SamsunqElectronicsToshibaHynlxSemiconductorsElpldaMemloryNanyaTechnologyInoteraMemories
,35
40
43
48
51
55

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