The issue is no longer whether but rather how and how much ideas matterunder different conditions—and how best to model their inºuence on strategic behavior. The problem is that ideational models depend on an implicit or ex-plicit contrast to explanations rooted in changing material incentives. How andhow much ideas matter naturally depend on how and how much material in-centives matter. In the case of the Cold War’s end, the objective of a more so-phisticated approach to the study of ideas is currently hampered less by thequantity of plausible models than by deªciencies in our understanding of thematerial incentives facing decisionmakers. Despite the fact that Soviet eco-nomic decline is often seen as a key reason why the Cold War ended, thereare relatively few studies in the international relations literature that specifyrigorously how constrained the Soviet Union was economically, and exactlyhow those constraints inºuenced strategic choices. The result is a strikingasymmetry: dozens of complex models on ideational inºuences arrayedagainst a few bare-bones accounts that examine the economic or other materialincentives confronting the Soviet Union. And the few accounts that highlight
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