The Global Range of Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program

Uzi Rubin

THE GLOBAL RANGE OF IRAN’SBALLISTIC MISSILE PROGRAM

Iran is Seeking to Deter the UnitedStates

What is the rationale behind the Iranian missileprogram? Prior to 1991 and the rst Gul War, themain threat to Iran was Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. TheIranians began developing their missile programat the height o the Iran-Iraq war, directly underre, so to speak, ater Saddam Hussein beganlaunching missiles at Iran and the only thing theIranians could use in response was a ew Scud “B”sthey had received rom Libya, the only country thatsupported Iran.Since the Gul War, the Iranians have believedthat the United States has replaced Iraq as theirpreeminent threat. The Iranian threat scenario is amassive U.S. military action against Iran, aided byU.S. allies in the region including the Gul statesand Israel, which the regime sees as an outpost o the United States.

Since the Gul War, the Iranianshave believed that the United Stateshas replaced Iraq as their preemi-nent threat.

The Iranians are realists: They know victory ina set-piece battle against the United States isimpossible. Instead, the regime hopes to deterthe United States and its allies by threatening awar o attrition that will exact such a high pricethat the U.S. will choose not to ght in the rstplace. With this in mind, the regime is ocusing itseorts not on the improvement o its substantialarsenal o conventional arms, but rather on newclasses o weapons. Very shrewdly, Iran is investingin deterrence enhancers and orce multipliers.Replacing obsolete equipment seems to beassigned a lower priority. This could be seen, or example, in the April 2005y-by o the Iranian Air Force during the annualArmy Day parade. The majority o the airplanesinvolved – F-5s, F-4s, and F-14s – were U.S.-madecombat aircrat bought during the time o theShah. A ormation o F4s, F5s, F14s, and an airtanker converted by Israel rom a Boeing 707 – allpredating the 1978 revolution – were still ying27 years later in the skies over Tehran. Looking atthe Iranian ground orces, one can see a numbero M113 armored personnel carriers, some M60tanks, some Russian and Chinese tanks that werebought during the Iran-Iraq war – all o it, in sum,antiquated and evidence that Iran has undertakenno large-scale renovation o its conventional warmachine.

What Armaments Does Iran Invest In?

What does Iran invest in? Precision-strike munitions,naval anti-ship weapons, ballistic missiles, spaceprograms, and a nuclear weapons program. Iraninvests extensively in anti-ship weapons, suchas the Chinese C802 that hit the Israeli Navy ship“Hanit” during the 2006 war in Lebanon. O morestrategic signicance is the 350-kilometer rangeRa’ad (“Thunder”) anti-ship missile. The purposeo this weapon is to control the Persian Gul, whichIranian ofcials see as the corridor through whichthe United States would launch an invasion. In thisregard, it is interesting to note the weapons Irantested during a recent large-scale naval exercise:Iranian media announced the use o the Misaqshoulder-launched, anti-aircrat missile, whichstrongly resembles the old Soviet “Strella” Manpad;the Kosar shore deense anti-ship missile, which isvery similar to a Chinese anti-ship missile; the Fajer 3radar-evading missile (probably the Shahab 2/ScudC); and the Ajdar “super-ast” underwater missile,which most probably is the not-too-successulRussian Shkval underwater rocket. The overallimpression is o an arsenal that is designed with adeensive mindset, but which is careully calculated

Behind a poster o IranianSupreme Leader AyatollahAli Khamenei reading:Missile maneuver o theGreat Prophet", Iran's eliteRevolutionary Guards teststhe long-range Shahab-3missile, Nov. 2, 2006.

Dore Gold

to cause the maximum damage and casualties toany aggressor – in short, an arsenal designed orbattles o attrition and deenses in depth.

The Iranians are engaged in themost intensive missile program inthe Third World, with constantly in-creasing ranges.

This arsenal is displayed, exhibited, and paradedagain and again with the intention o deterring theU.S. and at the same time inusing sel-condencein the Iranian public. Nothing contributes to thosetwo goals better than Iran’s ballistic missiles.

Ballistic Missiles in the IranianArsenal

The Iranians are engaged in the most intensivemissile program in the Third World, with constantlyincreasing ranges. Iran’s missile arsenal comprisesboth short-range, heavy tactical rockets o theZalzal (“Earthquake”) amily and continental-rangeballistic missiles like the newly acquired BM25 thatcan reach to central Europe.

The Zalzal-2 rocket, which eatures a 200-km rangeand carries a 500-600 kg warhead, is designed toattack troop concentrations staging or an invasiono Iran. Iran supplied a quantity o Zalzal rocketsto Hizbullah, which threatened to launch them at Tel Aviv during the 2006 Israel-Hizbullah war. Thisdid not happen, probably due to the act that theIsrael Air Force succeeded in destroying the rocketsin their depots deep inside Lebanon. Iran usedthe Zalzal to good psychological eect during itsNovember 2006 military exercises, ring a salvoo six o the heavy rockets in ront o televisioncameras, to the alarm o the Arab regimes acrossthe Persian Gul. The main drawback o unguided rockets like theZalzal is their inaccuracy. To solve this, the Iraniansare developing the Fatah 110 – a guided versiono the Zalzal 2 and a true battleeld short-rangeballistic missile.During the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war, Iran purchased300-km-range Scud B missiles which were dubbedShahab (“Comet”). Some were red at Baghdadduring the war, while most o the remaining oneswere red during the 1990s at Iranian oppositioncamps located inside Iraq. Later, Iran purchased aproduction line rom North Korea or the 600-km-range Huasong 5 (Scud C), dubbing it Shahab 2. These missiles are still in service, and are requentlydisplayed and tested.While the Shahab 1 and 2 were acquired to deal withclose threats, Iran’s next missile purchase indicatedregional aspirations. The Shahab 3, originally theNorth Korean No Dong, has a range o 1,300 kmand can reach Israel and the center o Saudi Arabia.Iran purchased a production line or these missilesin the early 1990s and is now manuacturing themrapidly. The missile was declared operational and

Iranian missile drives pasta photo o Iran's late leaderAyatollah Khomeini anda banner (right), reading:"Peaceul nuclear technologyis an essential need o ourcountry," in a ceremony tomark Army Day in Tehran,April 18, 2007.