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The Global Range of Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program
Uzi Rubin
THE GLOBAL RANGE OF IRAN’SBALLISTIC MISSILE PROGRAM
Iran is Seeking to Deter the UnitedStates
What is the rationale behind the Iranian missileprogram? Prior to 1991 and the rst Gul War, themain threat to Iran was Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. TheIranians began developing their missile programat the height o the Iran-Iraq war, directly underre, so to speak, ater Saddam Hussein beganlaunching missiles at Iran and the only thing theIranians could use in response was a ew Scud “B”sthey had received rom Libya, the only country thatsupported Iran.Since the Gul War, the Iranians have believedthat the United States has replaced Iraq as theirpreeminent threat. The Iranian threat scenario is amassive U.S. military action against Iran, aided byU.S. allies in the region including the Gul statesand Israel, which the regime sees as an outpost o the United States.
Since the Gul War, the Iranianshave believed that the United Stateshas replaced Iraq as their preemi-nent threat.
The Iranians are realists: They know victory ina set-piece battle against the United States isimpossible. Instead, the regime hopes to deterthe United States and its allies by threatening awar o attrition that will exact such a high pricethat the U.S. will choose not to ght in the rstplace. With this in mind, the regime is ocusing itseorts not on the improvement o its substantialarsenal o conventional arms, but rather on newclasses o weapons. Very shrewdly, Iran is investingin deterrence enhancers and orce multipliers.Replacing obsolete equipment seems to beassigned a lower priority. This could be seen, or example, in the April 2005y-by o the Iranian Air Force during the annualArmy Day parade. The majority o the airplanesinvolved – F-5s, F-4s, and F-14s – were U.S.-madecombat aircrat bought during the time o theShah. A ormation o F4s, F5s, F14s, and an airtanker converted by Israel rom a Boeing 707 – allpredating the 1978 revolution – were still ying27 years later in the skies over Tehran. Looking atthe Iranian ground orces, one can see a numbero M113 armored personnel carriers, some M60tanks, some Russian and Chinese tanks that werebought during the Iran-Iraq war – all o it, in sum,antiquated and evidence that Iran has undertakenno large-scale renovation o its conventional warmachine.
What Armaments Does Iran Invest In?
What does Iran invest in? Precision-strike munitions,naval anti-ship weapons, ballistic missiles, spaceprograms, and a nuclear weapons program. Iraninvests extensively in anti-ship weapons, suchas the Chinese C802 that hit the Israeli Navy ship“Hanit” during the 2006 war in Lebanon. O morestrategic signicance is the 350-kilometer rangeRa’ad (“Thunder”) anti-ship missile. The purposeo this weapon is to control the Persian Gul, whichIranian ofcials see as the corridor through whichthe United States would launch an invasion. In thisregard, it is interesting to note the weapons Irantested during a recent large-scale naval exercise:Iranian media announced the use o the Misaqshoulder-launched, anti-aircrat missile, whichstrongly resembles the old Soviet “Strella” Manpad;the Kosar shore deense anti-ship missile, which isvery similar to a Chinese anti-ship missile; the Fajer 3radar-evading missile (probably the Shahab 2/ScudC); and the Ajdar “super-ast” underwater missile,which most probably is the not-too-successulRussian Shkval underwater rocket. The overallimpression is o an arsenal that is designed with adeensive mindset, but which is careully calculated
Behind a poster o IranianSupreme Leader AyatollahAli Khamenei reading:Missile maneuver o theGreat Prophet", Iran's eliteRevolutionary Guards teststhe long-range Shahab-3missile, Nov. 2, 2006.
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