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GAILAV180910

GAILAV180910

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Published by Amit Kumar Singh

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Published by: Amit Kumar Singh on Jul 29, 2011
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04/29/2013

pdf

text

original

 
Please
 
refer
 
to
 
the
 
disclaimer
 
towards
 
the
 
end
 
of 
 
the
 
document.
 
India
 
Equity
 
Research
 
Oil
 
&
 
Gas
 
September
 
18,
 
2010
ADD
 
GAIL
 
(India)
 
Target
 
Price
 
(INR)
 
562
 
Transmission
 
volumes
 
to
 
continue
 
driving
 
the
 
business
 
Company
 
Report
 
GAIL
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
commission
 
over
 
7,500km
 
of 
 
pipeline
 
by
 
end
 
FY13f.
 
Transmission
 
volumes
 
are
 
likely
 
to
 
have
 
a
 
three
year
 
CAGR
 
of 
 
19.5%.
 
The
 
proposed
 
price
 
hike
 
in
 
the
 
APM
 
gas
 
supplied
 
to
 
petrochemicals
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
impact
 
the
 
segment’s
 
margins
 
in
 
FY12f 
 
and
 
FY13f.
 
We
 
estimate
 
GAIL’s
 
share
 
of 
 
the
 
subsidy
 
to
 
decline
 
in
 
FY12f 
 
and
 
FY13f.
 
Overall
 
EBITDA
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
grow
 
at
 
a
 
CAGR
 
of 
 
20.8%
 
during
 
FY10
FY13f.
 
The
 
capex
 
plan
 
of 
 
over
 
INR290bn
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
dent
 
PAT.
 
We
 
forecast
 
GAIL’s
 
FY13f 
 
PAT
 
margin
 
at
 
11.3%.
 
Based
 
on
 
a
 
DCF
 
fair
 
value
 
of 
 
INR471/share
 
for
 
the
 
core
 
business,
 
INR20/share
 
for
 
the
 
E&P
 
business
 
and
 
INR71/share
 
for
 
investments
 
in
 
listed
 
entities,
 
we
 
arrive
 
at
 
a
 
Sep11
 
SOTP
 
target
 
of 
 
INR562.
 
We
 
initiate
 
coverage
 
with
 
an
 
Add
 
rating.
 
Pipeline
 
infrastructure
 
expansion
 
to
 
help
 
meet
 
demand
 
Of 
 
the
 
over
 
15,000km
 
of 
 
pipeline
 
proposed
 
by
 
various
 
players,
 
GAIL
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
commission
 
over
 
7,500km
 
by
 
end
 
FY13f.
 
A
 
number
 
of 
 
gas
 
discoveries
 
have
 
been
 
made
 
in
 
the
 
eastern
 
region,
 
while
 
historic
 
industrial
 
development
 
has
 
been
 
in
 
west
 
India;
 
thus
 
there
 
is
 
need
 
for
 
an
 
all
India
 
gas
 
transmission
 
network.
 
Three
year
 
CAGR
 
of 
 
19.5%
 
in
 
transmission
 
volumes
 
Optimistic
 
domestic
 
gas
 
supply
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
grow
 
at
 
a
 
CAGR
 
of 
 
c18%.
 
Power
 
plants,
 
fertilizer
 
plants
 
and
 
CGD
 
networks
 
are
 
likely
 
to
 
drive
 
demand.
 
Transmission
 
volumes
 
are
 
likely
 
to
 
increase
 
from
 
106.5mmscmd
 
in
 
FY10
 
to
 
c182mmscmd
 
in
 
FY13f.
 
The
 
new
 
tariff 
 
regulation
 
is
 
unlikely
 
to
 
impact
 
tariffs
 
by
 
a
 
large
 
extent.
 
A
 
sharp
 
increase
 
in
 
volumes
 
in
 
FY11f 
 
and
 
FY12f 
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
result
 
in
 
marginal
 
improvement
 
of 
 
the
 
segment’s
 
EBIT
 
margins.
 
Higher
 
gas
 
price
 
to
 
result
 
in
 
lower
 
margins
 
in
 
petrochemicals
 
On
 
the
 
back
 
of 
 
high
 
crude
 
prices,
 
petrochemical
 
prices
 
are
 
likely
 
to
 
remain
 
firm
 
for
 
the
 
next
 
two
 
years.
 
Domestic
 
players
 
are
 
likely
 
to
 
be
 
protected
 
by
 
the
 
freight
cost
 
advantage
 
and
 
the
 
duty
 
structure.
 
Gas
based
 
petrochemical
 
crackers
 
are
 
likely
 
to
 
have
 
a
 
higher
 
advantage
 
as
 
gas
 
prices
 
do
 
not
 
change
 
in
 
line
 
with
 
crude
 
prices.
 
The
 
proposed
 
price
 
hike
 
in
 
the
 
APM
 
gas
 
supplied
 
to
 
petrochemical
 
consumers
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
impact
 
margins
 
in
 
FY12f 
 
and
 
FY13f.
 
Subsidy
 
sharing
 
to
 
continue;
 
overall
 
EBITDA
 
to
 
rise
 
at
 
a
 
CAGR
 
of 
 
21%
 
LPG
 
and
 
liquid
 
hydrocarbon
 
revenues
 
are
 
likely
 
to
 
grow
 
a
 
CAGR
 
of 
 
c4%.
 
EBIT
 
margins
 
are
 
likely
 
to
 
improve
 
as
 
we
 
estimate
 
GAIL’s
 
share
 
of 
 
the
 
subsidy
 
to
 
decline
 
in
 
FY12f 
 
and
 
FY13f.
 
Overall
 
EBITDA
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
grow
 
at
 
a
 
CAGR
 
of 
 
20.8%
 
during
 
FY10
FY13f.
 
The
 
capex
 
plan
 
of 
 
over
 
INR290bn
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
dent
 
the
 
PAT.
 
We
 
estimate
 
the
 
FY13f 
 
PAT
 
margin
 
at
 
11.3%,
 
down
 
from
 
12.0%
 
in
 
FY10.
 
Initiate
 
with
 
an
 
Add
 
rating
 
and
 
Sep11
 
target
 
price
 
of 
 
INR562
 
Based
 
on
 
a
 
DCF
 
fair
 
value
 
of 
 
INR471/share
 
for
 
the
 
core
 
business,
 
INR20/share
 
for
 
the
 
E&P
 
business
 
and
 
INR71/share
 
for
 
investments
 
in
 
listed
 
entities,
 
we
 
arrive
 
at
 
a
 
Sep11
 
SOTP
 
target
 
price
 
of 
 
INR562.
 
We
 
initiate
 
coverage
 
on
 
the
 
stock
 
with
 
an
 
Add
 
rating.
 
Last
 
Price
 
(INR)
 
480.4
Bloomberg
 
codeReuters
 
codeAvg.
 
Vol.
 
(3m)(mn)Avg.
 
Val.(3m)(INRmn)52
wk
 
H/L
 
(INR)SensexMCAP
 
(INRbn/USDbn)
Shareholding
 
(%) 03/10 06/10
PromotersMFs,
 
FIs,
 
BanksFIIsPublicOthers
Stock
 
Chart
 
(Relative
 
to
 
Sensex)Stock
 
Perfm.
 
(%) 1m
 
6m
 
1yr
 
AbsoluteRel.
 
to
 
Sensex
Financials
 
(INRmn) 03/10 03/11f 03/12
Salesy
o
y
 
(%)EBITDA
 
(%)A.PATSh
 
o/s
 
(diluted)A.EPS
 
(INR)y
o
y
 
(%)D/E
 
(x)P/E
 
(x)EV/E
 
(x)RoCE
 
(%)RoE
 
(%)
Quarterly
 
Trends
 
09/09 12/09 03/10 06/10
Sales
 
(INRmn)PAT
 
(INRmn)GAIL
 
INGAIL.BO1.73517
 
/
 
3249.6162115.97,13262,24319.412.016208,60062,057101831,420
0.21,26824.813248.8142065,690208,8691,2689,10871,1581,26833.41014.4
0.142,3450.122131930.238,345261,53536.819.74.1
2.414.83.3366,463324,3041.41.626.611.91.21.978457.3 57.319,595
 
609.31
 
/
 
13.2926.412.4
60402000
Sep09Jan10May10Sep10
GAIL (India)Sensex Rebased
 
Gouri
 
Mishra
,
 
+91
 
022
 
66842863
 
gouri.mishra@avendus.com
 
 
 India Equity Research
GAIL
 
(India)
 
Oil
 
&
 
Gas
 
2
 
Investment
 
Summary
 
Of 
 
the
 
15,000km
 
of 
 
pipeline
 
planned
 
by
 
various
 
players,
 
GAIL
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
commission
 
over
 
7,500km
 
by
 
end
 
FY13f.
 
Higher
 
gas
 
consumption
 
by
 
power,
 
fertilizer
 
and
 
city
 
gas
 
distribution
 
networks
 
are
 
likely
 
to
 
drive
 
demand
 
till
 
FY13f.
 
Transmission
 
volumes
 
for
 
Gail
 
India
 
are
 
likely
 
to
 
increase
 
from
 
106.5mmscmd
 
in
 
FY10
 
to
 
c182mmscmd
 
in
 
FY13f.
 
The
 
proposed
 
price
 
hike
 
in
 
the
 
APM
 
gas
 
supplied
 
to
 
petrochemical
 
consumers
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
impact
 
the
 
segment’s
 
margins
 
in
 
FY12f 
 
and
 
FY13f.
 
LPG
 
transmission
 
volumes
 
are
 
likely
 
to
 
grow
 
at
 
a
 
CAGR
 
of 
 
c8%.
 
Higher
 
marketing
 
margins
 
on
 
APM
 
gas
 
are
 
likely
 
to
 
lead
 
to
 
marginal
 
improvement
 
in
 
margins
 
from
 
the
 
gas
 
trading
 
business.
 
LPG
 
and
 
liquid
 
hydrocarbon
 
revenues
 
are
 
likely
 
to
 
grow
 
a
 
CAGR
 
of 
 
c4%.
 
EBIT
 
margins
 
are
 
likely
 
to
 
improve
 
as
 
we
 
estimate
 
GAIL’s
 
share
 
of 
 
the
 
subsidy
 
to
 
decline
 
in
 
FY12f 
 
and
 
FY13f.
 
We
 
forecast
 
GAIL’s
 
EBITDA
 
to
 
grow
 
at
 
a
 
CAGR
 
of 
 
20.8%
 
during
 
FY10
FY13.
 
The
 
capex
 
plan
 
of 
 
over
 
INR290bn
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
increase
 
interest
 
costs
 
and
 
reduce
 
the
 
PAT.
 
The
 
PAT
 
margin
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
decline
 
from
 
12.0%
 
in
 
FY10
 
to
 
11.3%
 
in
 
FY13f.
 
Based
 
on
 
a
 
fair
 
value
 
of 
 
INR471/share
 
for
 
the
 
core
 
business,
 
INR20/share
 
for
 
the
 
E&P
 
business
 
and
 
INR71/share
 
for
 
investments
 
in
 
listed
 
entities,
 
we
 
arrive
 
at
 
a
 
Sep11
 
SOTP
 
target
 
price
 
of 
 
INR562.
 
We
 
initiate
 
coverage
 
on
 
the
 
stock
 
with
 
an
 
Add
 
rating.
 
Robust
 
domestic
 
gas
 
demand
 
to
 
continue
 
Domestic
 
gas
 
demand
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
grow
 
at
 
a
 
CAGR
 
of 
 
10.2%
 
till
 
FY13f.
 
Gas
 
consumption
 
by
 
power
 
and
 
fertilizer
 
companies
 
and
 
city
 
gas
 
distribution
 
(CGD)
 
networks
 
are
 
likely
 
to
 
drive
 
demand.
 
The
 
growth
 
in
 
domestic
 
gas
 
supply
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
outpace
 
demand
 
growth
 
till
 
FY13f.
 
However,
 
domestic
 
supply
 
is
 
unlikely
 
to
 
satiate
 
the
 
entire
 
demand
 
and
 
liquefied
 
natural
 
gas
 
(LNG)
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
fill
 
the
 
gap.
 
We
 
also
 
estimate
 
higher
 
demand
 
for
 
spot
 
LNG
 
as
 
domestic
 
demand
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
be
 
far
 
higher
 
than
 
supply.
 
Spot
 
LNG
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
find
 
more
 
takers
 
as
 
the
 
average
 
gas
 
cost
 
has
 
increased
 
after
 
the
 
increase
 
in
 
APM
 
gas
 
prices
 
from
 
USD1.8/mmbtu
 
to
 
USD4.2/mmbtu,
 
effective
 
1
 
Jun10.
 
Pipeline
 
infrastructure
 
expansion
 
to
 
help
 
meet
 
demand
 
Of 
 
the
 
over
 
15,000km
 
of 
 
pipeline
 
proposed
 
by
 
various
 
players,
 
Gail
 
India
 
(GAIL)
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
commission
 
over
 
7,500km
 
by
 
end
 
FY13f.
 
Currently,
 
the
 
total
 
trunk
 
pipeline
 
network
 
in
 
the
 
country
 
extends
 
for
 
c11,070km.
 
The
 
pipelines
 
are
 
owned
 
and
 
operated
 
by
 
central
 
and
 
state
 
public
 
sector
 
undertakings,
 
and
 
also
 
by
 
private
 
companies.
 
GAIL
 
owns
 
c70%
 
of 
 
the
 
pipeline,
 
while
 
Gujarat
 
State
 
Petronet
 
(GUJS
 
IN,
 
Add)
 
owns
 
c12%.
 
A
 
number
 
of 
 
gas
 
discoveries
 
have
 
been
 
made
 
in
 
the
 
eastern
 
region,
 
while
 
historic
 
industrial
 
development
 
has
 
been
 
in
 
west
 
India;
 
thus,
 
there
 
is
 
a
 
need
 
for
 
an
 
all
India
 
gas
 
transmission
 
network.
 
Three
year
 
CAGR
 
of 
 
19.5%
 
in
 
transmission
 
volumes
 
Optimistic
 
domestic
 
gas
 
supply
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
grow
 
at
 
a
 
three
year
 
CAGR
 
of 
 
c18%.
 
A
 
number
 
of 
 
power
 
and
 
fertilizer
 
plants
 
require
 
gas.
 
Moreover,
 
CGD
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
flourish
 
once
 
the
 
excess
 
gas
 
from
 
the
 
KG
 
basin
 
and
 
the
 
expanded
 
LNG
 
terminal
 
is
 
available.
 
To
 
bridge
 
the
 
distance
 
between
 
the
 
supply
 
and
 
demand
 
centers,
 
expansion
 
of 
 
the
 
pipeline
 
network
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
be
 
critical.
 
Transmission
 
volumes
 
are
 
likely
 
to
 
increase
 
from
 
106.5mmscmd
 
in
 
FY10
 
to
 
c182mmscmd
 
in
 
FY13f.
 
According
 
to
 
the
 
new
 
tariff 
 
regulations,
 
pipeline
 
tariff 
 
would
 
be
 
based
 
on
 
the
 
12%
 
post
tax
 
RoCE
 
method.
 
Tariff 
 
calculation
 
for
 
the
 
new
 
pipeline
 
is
 
based
 
on
 
the
 
minimum
 
utilization
 
rate
 
set
 
by
 
the
 
Petroleum
 
and
 
Natural
 
Gas
 
Regulatory
 
Board
 
(PNGRB).
 
As
 
actual
 
capacity
 
utilization
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
be
 
higher
 
than
 
the
 
stipulated
 
utilization,
 
overall
 
RoCE
 
and
 
IRR
 
for
 
the
 
project
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
be
 
in
 
excess
 
of 
 
12%
 
post
tax.
 
A
 
sharp
 
increase
 
in
 
volumes
 
in
 
FY11f 
 
and
 
FY12f 
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
result
 
in
 
marginal
 
improvement
 
in
 
the
 
segment’s
 
EBIT
 
margins.
 
Higher
 
gas
 
price
 
to
 
result
 
in
 
lower
 
margins
 
for
 
petrochemicals
 
Despite
 
capacity
 
additions
 
across
 
the
 
globe,
 
petrochemical
 
prices
 
are
 
likely
 
to
 
remain
 
firm
 
for
 
the
 
next
 
two
 
years
 
on
 
the
 
back
 
of 
 
higher
 
crude
 
prices
 
and
 
lower
 
utilization
 
at
 
the
 
new
 
petrochemical
 
plants.
 
Domestic
 
players
 
are
 
likely
 
to
 
be
 
protected
 
by
 
the
 
freight
cost
 
advantage
 
and
 
duty
 
structure.
 
Gas
based
 
petrochemical
 
crackers
 
will
 
have
 
a
 
higher
 
advantage
 
as
 
gas
 
prices
 
do
 
not
 
change
 
in
 
line
 
with
 
crude
 
prices,
 
and
 
hence
 
higher
 
crack
 
spreads
 
can
 
be
 
achieved.
 
GAIL
 
is
 
also
 
expanding
 
its
 
capacity
 
from
 
c0.4mtpa
 
to
 
c0.8mtpa
 
by
 
FY14f.
 
The
 
proposed
 
price
 
hike
 
in
 
the
 
APM
 
gas
 
supplied
 
to
 
petrochemical
 
Transmission
 
volumes
 
are
 
likely
 
to
 
increase
 
from
 
106.5mmscmd
 
in
 
FY10
 
to
 
c182mmscmd
 
in
 
FY13f.
 
Proposed
 
price
 
hike
 
in
 
the
 
APM
 
gas
 
supplied
 
to
 
petrochemical
 
consumers
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
impact
 
margins
 
in
 
FY12f 
 
and
 
FY13f.
 
 
 India Equity Research
GAIL
 
(India)
 
Oil
 
&
 
Gas
 
3
 
consumers
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
impact
 
margins
 
in
 
FY12f 
 
and
 
FY13f.
 
However,
 
higher
 
polymer
 
production
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
increase
 
the
 
EBIT
 
from
 
the
 
segment.
 
Other
 
businesses
 
to
 
add
 
to
 
the
 
EBIT;
 
subsidy
 
sharing
 
to
 
continue
 
LPG
 
transmission
 
volumes
 
are
 
likely
 
to
 
grow
 
at
 
a
 
CAGR
 
of 
 
c8%,
 
while
 
transmission
 
charges
 
are
 
likely
 
to
 
remain
 
flat.
 
As
 
GAIL
 
has
 
been
 
allowed
 
to
 
charge
 
marketing
 
margins
 
on
 
APM
 
gas,
 
it
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
marginally
 
improve
 
the
 
overall
 
margins
 
from
 
the
 
gas
 
trading
 
business.
 
LPG
 
and
 
liquid
 
hydrocarbon
 
revenues
 
are
 
likely
 
to
 
grow
 
a
 
CAGR
 
of 
 
c4%.
 
EBIT
 
margins
 
are
 
likely
 
to
 
improve
 
as
 
we
 
estimate
 
GAIL’s
 
share
 
of 
 
the
 
subsidy
 
to
 
decline
 
in
 
FY12f 
 
and
 
FY13f.
 
However,
 
continued
 
subsidy
 
sharing
 
by
 
GAIL
 
is
 
likely
 
keep
 
the
 
stock
 
from
 
re
rating.
 
The
 
presence
 
in
 
CGD
 
is
 
a
 
potential
 
upside
 
for
 
the
 
company’s
 
revenues.
 
In
 
line
 
with
 
the
 
growth
 
in
 
transmission
 
volumes,
 
EBITDA
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
grow
 
at
 
a
 
CAGR
 
of 
 
20.8%
 
during
 
FY10
FY13f.
 
PAT
 
growth
 
is
 
unlikely
 
to
 
match
 
EBITDA
 
growth
 
as
 
newer
 
assets
 
would
 
mean
 
higher
 
depreciation.
 
Also,
 
the
 
capex
 
plan
 
of 
 
over
 
INR290bn
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
require
 
debt
funding,
 
increasing
 
interest
 
costs.
 
PAT
 
margin
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
decline
 
from
 
12.0%
 
in
 
FY10
 
to
 
11.3%in
 
FY13f.
 
The
 
E&P
 
business
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
add
 
value
 
to
 
the
 
stock
 
price.
 
Add
 
with
 
Sep11
 
target
 
price
 
of 
 
INR562
 
We
 
use
 
a
 
three
stage
 
DCF
 
to
 
evaluate
 
the
 
current
 
value
 
of 
 
the
 
core
 
business,
 
while
 
the
 
E&P
 
business
 
is
 
valued
 
on
 
the
 
in
place
 
resources.
 
Based
 
on
 
a
 
fair
 
value
 
of 
 
INR471/share
 
for
 
the
 
core
 
business,
 
INR20/share
 
for
 
the
 
E&P
 
business
 
and
 
INR71/share
 
for
 
investments
 
in
 
listed
 
entities
 
at
 
the
 
current
 
market
 
price,
 
we
 
arrive
 
at
 
a
 
Sep11
 
SOTP
 
target
 
price
 
of 
 
INR562.
 
The
 
stock
 
has
 
traded
 
in
 
various
 
P/E
 
bands
 
over
 
the
 
past
 
three
 
years.
 
Presently,
 
it
 
is
 
trading
 
at
 
less
 
than
 
14.8x
 
the
 
one
year
 
forward
 
P/E.
 
At
 
our
 
target
 
price,
 
it
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
trade
 
at
 
15.7x
 
the
 
one
year
 
forward
 
P/E
 
in
 
Sep11.
 
We
 
initiate
 
coverage
 
on
 
the
 
stock
 
with
 
an
 
Add
 
rating.
 
Exhibit
 
1:
 
Projected
 
one
year
 
forward
 
P/E
 
05101520Oct06 Mar07 Sep07 Feb08 Jul08 Jan09 Jun09 Nov09 May10 Oct10 Mar11 Sep11
 
Source:
 
Bloomberg,
 
Avendus
 
Research
 
Exhibit
 
2:
 
Valuation
 
summary
 
(INRmn)
 
Net
 
Sales
 
EBITDA
 
Net
 
Profit
 
EPS
 
(INR)
 
P/E
 
(x)
 
EV/EBITDA
 
(x)
 
EV/Sales
 
(x) P/B
 
(x)
Mar09
 
237,760
 
40,647 27,928 22.0 22.0 12.9
 
2.2 4.2Mar10f 
 
261,535
 
47,762 31,420 24.8 19.5 12.0
 
2.2 3.6Mar11f 
 
324,304
 
61,276 38,345 30.2 16.0 9.7
 
1.8 3.1Mar12f 
 
366,463
 
71,516 42,345 33.4 14.5 8.8
 
1.7 2.7Mar13f 
 
410,439
 
84,227 46,487 36.6 13.2 8.5
 
1.7 2.4Source:
 
Avendus
 
Research
 
Overall
 
EBITDA
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
grow
 
at
 
a
 
CAGR
 
of 
 
20.8%
 
during
 
FY10
FY13f.
 
Our
 
target
 
price
 
is
 
based
 
on
 
a
 
DCF
 
value
 
of 
 
INR471/share
 
for
 
the
 
core
 
business,
 
INR20/share
 
for
 
the
 
E&P
 
business
 
and
 
INR71/share
 
for
 
investments.
 

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