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Battle Ground Afganistan

Battle Ground Afganistan

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Published by ehtasham_ali_1
http://brasstacks-media.blogspot.com/ Download Brasstacks Books , Magazines , Policy Papers and TV programs
http://brasstacks-media.blogspot.com/ Download Brasstacks Books , Magazines , Policy Papers and TV programs

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Published by: ehtasham_ali_1 on Aug 01, 2011
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02/25/2014

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PakistanandtheFutureDynamicsoftheUSWaronTerror
By:ZaidHamid
"Asiaisabody'builtofclayandwaterAfghanistanistheheartinthis
body.'
lfAfghanistanisinturmoil,the'wholeofAsia,..-ouldbeinTurmoil
If
Afghanistanisinpeace,thewholeofAsia'wouldbeinpeace."(AllamaIqbal)
ParadoxwithinaParadox:
Theabovestunning,almostprophetic,geo-politicalvisionofIqbalisstarklyvisibletodayastheentireregion,especiallyPakistanisfacedwithanexistentialthreatfromtheAfghantheatre.WhiletherapidandviolentreshapingoftheMuslimMiddleEastisbeingorchestratedbytheNeo-ConsinthemainlandArabworld,theoccupationofAfghanistanbythewesternforcesisdirectlythreateningtheMuslimheartlandinWestAsia,greaterKhurasanandtheCentralAsianregions,Despitefacingamassivehighintensity,decentralized,imposedasymmetric
4th
generationwarwithinitsownborders,Pakistan'sAfghanpolicyremainsfatallyconfused,disorientedandwithoutanystrategicvision.Thisstrategicconfusionwithinthepoliticalgovernmenthascreatedanunprecedentedthreatenvironmentinwhichthedifferentiationbetweenfriendandfoehasbeendeliberatelyconfusedthroughanorchestratedinformationwarandpsy-opsbytheextraregionalforces.Theirony
is
overwhelminglystark,thecontradictionsparadoxical:PakistanarmyisfightingabloodyandruthlessinsurgencybackedbytheUSINATO/India,simultaneouslyPakistanisalsoanallyofthewesternforces.
PakistanhadagreedtohelptheUSinthewaragainstAfghanTalibanandAl-QaedainsideAfghanistanbuttheUShaspushedthewarinsidePakistanundertheAf-Pakdoctrine.
Weapons,explosivesandsuppliestotheinsurgentsagainstPakistanarebeingprovidedbythewesternforcesfromAfghanistan,whiletheirownsupplylinespassthroughPakistanwhichalsocarrythelogisticsfortheinsurgencies.
AfghanTalibanandotherresistancegroupsarefightingawaragainsttheforeignoccupationforcesbutarenotconsideredalliesbyPakistan.
KarzairegimeisahostileenemygovernmentbuttreatedasanallybyIslamabad.
TTPisaninsurgentgroupfightingagainstPakistanbuttheUSinsiststhatPakistan
 
Thenewworldwarfor
21"
centurybeganinAfghanistan!
shouldonlyfighttheAfghanresistanceinstead.
AfghanresistancedoesnotfightPakistanandconsiderstheTTPasaterroristassetbutdoesnotfighttheTTPasPakistandoesnotrecognizetheAfghanresistance.Droneskillmorepro-PakistanAfghanresistanceandPakistanitribalciviliansthanterrorists,causingseriousdamagetoPakistan'sinterestsbutstillIslamabadallowstheattacksasamatterofpolicy.ThelSIandCIAaresupposedtobealliesbutCIAisworkingsystematicallytodecapitatethepremierPakistanisecretserviceandaviolentwarragesbetweenthetwospyagenciesunderthefacadeofcooperation!Indiawagesaruthlesswar,supportingmultipleinsurgenciesinFATAandBaluchistanthroughAfghanistanbutPakistancontinuestoengageIndiain"peace"process.IndiaalsocontinuestoblockPakistaniwatersandalsosupportsurbanterroristsofMQMandANPinKarachi.Underthismostbizarre,complex,dangerousandconfusedgeopoliticalthreatscenario,Pakistanisledbythemostcorrupt,compromisedanddysfunctionalregimeinitshistory,furthercreatingaleadershipcrisisintimesofwar.Inthelast4yearsofthisregime,
 
notasingledebatehasbeeninitiatedontheAfghanpolicywhichaddressestheabovecoreissues.ThepoliciesoftheMusharraferaarebeingpursued,whichhadbroughtthisbrutalwaruponPakistaninthefirstplace.Still,theleadershipcannotdecidehowtoextricatePakistanfromthiswardespiteover50,000deadandwounded,bothfromthearmedforcesandthecivilsociety,inthelast4yearsalone.TheentirecountryhasbeenturnedintoabattlegroundbutstilltheregimedoesnotplananypolicyanalysisontheAfghantheatreandthethreatsemergingfromit.The"strategicblindness"oftheleadershiphascreatedanexistentialthreatenvironmentforthestateandthenation.AdecisivesolutiontotheAfghancrisishastobefoundNOW!Asthecrisishasalmostmetastasizedbeyondcontrol,thetreatmentwouldalsoberadical,harsh,andevenruthlessbutforthesakeofregionalpeaceandnationalsecurity,itwillhavetobedeployedwithcutthroatlethality.ThreecriticalfactorsmustbeunderstoodclearlybeforeanyanalysisandsolutionoftheAfghancrisisisgiven:
TheExtraRegionalforcesarepartoftheproblemandNOTthesolutionofit.TherecanbenopeaceaslongastheforeignforcesareoccupyingAfghanistan.
ThesolutiontotheAfghancrisisdoesnotliewithintheAfghantheatreofwarbutwithintheregion-inthehandsofthecountriessurroundingtheAfghantheatre.TheUSandNATOdonothavethemilitaryandeconomiccapabilitytoopenanyotherhighintensity,Iraq-styledtheatreofwaragainstPakistan.Pakistancontrolsthejugularoftheextraregionalforces!
TheGeo-Politics:
Almost18monthsago,atWestPointMilitaryAcademy,USpresidentBarackObamastated:
"ItmustbeclearthatAfghanswillhavetotakeresponsibilityfortheirsecurity,andthatAmericahasnointerestinfightinganendlesswarinAfghanistan."
ObamaseemedtobestatingthattheUSreallywantedtobringthis10yearlongvindictiveWoTtoanendandwantedtoleavehandingoverthefateofthecountrytoitsindigenousowners.ButwhatcamealongwiththisannouncementwasamoreaggressivedoctrineofAf-PakwhichnotonlyhasdevastatedAfghanistanbuthasalsopushedthewardeeperintoPakistan.Duringhisaddress,presidentObamaalsoannouncedasurgeof33,000moretroopsforAfghanistan.Although,UShasannouncedalimitedwithdrawalofitsforcesfromAfghanistan,butwhatdoesthis"withdrawal"actuallymeaninthelongtermregionalsecurityperspective?WhatwerethestatedgoalsoftheUSwarinAfghanistan?HowfarwastheAf-Pakdoctrinesuccessfulinachievingitsstatedgoals?Wheredoesthewarstandafter10years?AndwhatarethefuturedynamicsofthiswarfromPakistan'ssecuritypointofview?ThesearchofobjectiveanswerstothesequestionsinvitesustodissectthisdecadelongwarinAfghanistanandexamineitbothatstrategicandpoliticalvortexesalongwithitslongtermregionalandglobalramifications.TostartwithitisessentialtounderstandthatthestatedUSgoalsintheregionareentirelydifferentfromherrealobjectives.ThedetailedcomparisonbetweenthetwoiscriticaltounderstandandpredictthefuturecourseofwaronPakistan'swesternborders.Disrupting,dismantlinganddeterioratingtheabilityofAl-Qaedaandtheirallies(Taliban)tolaunchanyfurtherattackonUSwasstatedastheprimarymissionobjectivebytheUSgovernmentafter9/11.Butthisstatedaimwasameresmokescreentoveilthereal

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