Schooloftrade.com Market Commentary 8.2.11
820am estWe have personal income/spending news at 830am and we expect this to be lower than previous weeks. (USD bearish, crude bearish, gold bullish)TheUS Dollar Indexis making new highs today, so we know selling gold, crude, euro and russell will be the higher percentage trades until the dollar changes its direction.Remember thedollar correlationand the fact that the slowing economy is making for a positive correlation onmarkets such as crude and Russell.Goldstill has the negative correlation, so does the Euro.Crude Oil Futuresare trading in a bear channel. The key today will be using this bear channel as our guide. Sellingat resistance if price rises up, and then selling new lower lows with retracements, keeping an eye on the key supportlevels as price targets and price reversal opportunities.
Gold Futures are flirting with all-time highs again this morning as concerns across the globe lead traders andlong term investors to seek shelter from the storm.
Gold trading at the highs is a very tough spot to trade, so my plan of attack will be to stay away from the 37.6 all-time highs and focus on buying at support levels as price fallsoff these highs.Buying Pullbackswill always be the most efficient way to trade rising prices, and on Gold this is
very important to keep us away from the emotions involved with trading at the highs.
ook to buy 18.8, 12.1, 08.1, 05.7 and if possible buying 85.9, 83.6, 78.9 on the way down. The bullish trend andthe fundamentals make buying pullbacks the higher percentage trades today.
uro Futures are trading outside of the bull price channel, now moving towards major support inside of anew bearprice channel
. We¶ve seen this price structure many times before and we know that the major bullchannel tells us to buy at these major levels of support listed on this 89range chart.You can see we¶re at the lows of the short term bear channel, so looking for buying opportunities here at 4115,4085, 3990, 3920, and 3815. Another high percentage tradewill be selling the highs of this new bear channel belowthe 4300 area. Strategy today will be buying at this major support, but then looking for selling opportunities if thesupport is broken and we move lower.840am estPersonal income/spending comes out as expected, a lower reading than last week.Gold pushes new all-time highs (we try to keep our emotions out of it) and crude chops around in the middle of thechannel.
Review crude oil this morning and we see the following:
Bear price channel