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Zooming In on Inflation: Sources and Outlook

Zooming In on Inflation: Sources and Outlook

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by Dante B. Canlas, Ph.D. (Professor, UP School of Economics), for the 2011 IDEA Midyear Economic Briefing
by Dante B. Canlas, Ph.D. (Professor, UP School of Economics), for the 2011 IDEA Midyear Economic Briefing

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Categories:Types, Business/Law
Published by: James Matthew Miraflor on Aug 08, 2011
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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08/10/2011

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8/6/20111
INFLATION: SOURCESAND 2011 OUTLOOK
8 August 2011Prof. Dante B. CanlasUniversity of the Philippines, School of Economics
Inflation based on the Consumer Price Index(CPI) for January-June 2011 is…
Still relatively low with an average of 4.3%
About the same as the average inflation rate inthe same period last year
Will 2011 play out like last year or will it creepup and exceed the upper limit target of theBangko Sentral of 5%?
 
8/6/20112
Inflation rate in 2010 and 2011
2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Headline inflation rate (2000=100)
2010 2011
Source: National Statistics Office
Inflation rate, yoy change in CPI (2000=100)MONTH20102011
Jan4.33.6Feb4.24.3Mar4.44.3Apr4.54.3May4.34.5Jun3.94.6Jul3.9Aug4.0Sep3.5Oct2.7Nov3.0Dec3.0
AVE3.84.3
Inflation triggers in 2011
Commodity price shocks
 – 
Natural disasters worldwide causing crop prices toshoot up
Oil-price shocks
 – 
Geo-political shocks resulting in volatility of crudeoil and petroleum-product prices
 
8/6/20113
Still 2011 inflation is nothingcompared to 2008
Average inflation rate in 2008 was 9.3%
Rice-price and energy-price shocks were theimpulses triggering petitions for wageincreases
Add the aggregate-supply shocks from theglobal financial crisis
2007 and 2008 inflation
0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Headline inflation rate (2000=100)
20072008
Source: National Statistics Office
Inflation rate, yoy change in CPI (2000=100)MONTH20102011
Jan3.94.9Feb2.65.4Mar2.26.4Apr2.38.3May2.49.5Jun2.311.4Jul2.612.3Aug2.412.4Sep2.711.8Oct2.711.2Nov3.29.9Dec3.98.0
AVE2.89.3

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