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Project on National Security Reform: Vision Working Group Report and Scenarios

Project on National Security Reform: Vision Working Group Report and Scenarios

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The Project on National Security Reform submitted its 2-year study of the national security system, Forging a New Shield, to the President, President-elect, and Congress on November 26, 2008. Before the Project finalized the report’s recommendations, its Vision Working Group tested the findings against a diverse set of scenarios to determine if the recommendations were robust and effective. This volume documents the scenario-testing process used by the Vision Working Group and includes the actual pre-reform and post-reform scenarios, and details many other scenario techniques used in the overall study. Results revealed that each of the five major findings improved the performance of the current national security system, but, on the whole, the findings concluded that the national security system was at risk of failure and needed serious reform. The work of the Vision Working Group has led to the formulation of an additional recommendation: The country must establish a mechanism to infuse greater foresight into the Executive Branch, and in particular the national security system. This proposed mechanism, named the Center for Strategic Analysis and Assessment, would exist and operate within the Executive Office of the President. This volume details the proposed architecture and operation of the Center.
The Project on National Security Reform submitted its 2-year study of the national security system, Forging a New Shield, to the President, President-elect, and Congress on November 26, 2008. Before the Project finalized the report’s recommendations, its Vision Working Group tested the findings against a diverse set of scenarios to determine if the recommendations were robust and effective. This volume documents the scenario-testing process used by the Vision Working Group and includes the actual pre-reform and post-reform scenarios, and details many other scenario techniques used in the overall study. Results revealed that each of the five major findings improved the performance of the current national security system, but, on the whole, the findings concluded that the national security system was at risk of failure and needed serious reform. The work of the Vision Working Group has led to the formulation of an additional recommendation: The country must establish a mechanism to infuse greater foresight into the Executive Branch, and in particular the national security system. This proposed mechanism, named the Center for Strategic Analysis and Assessment, would exist and operate within the Executive Office of the President. This volume details the proposed architecture and operation of the Center.

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PROJECT ON NATIONAL SECURITY REFORMVISION WORKING GROUP REPORTAND SCENARIOSSheila R. RonisEditor July 2010
The views expressed in this report are those of the authors anddo not necessarily reect the ofcial policy or position of the De-partment of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S.Government. Authors of Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) publica-tions enjoy full academic freedom, provided they do not discloseclassied information, jeopardize operations security, or mis-represent ofcial U.S. policy. Such academic freedom empow-ers them to offer new and sometimes controversial perspectivesin the interest of furthering debate on key issues. This report iscleared for public release; distribution is unlimited.*****This publication is subject to Title 17, United States Code, Sec-tions 101 and 105. It is in the public domain and may not be copy-righted.
Visit our website for other free publicationdownloadshttp://www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/
 
ii*****The Vision Working Group of the Project on National Secu-rity Reform began its efforts in December 2005 when the Hon-orable James R. Locher III, soon to be the Project’s ExecutiveDirector, met with the author and Robert B. Polk and Daniel R.Langberg of the Institute for Defense Analyses to discuss the ur-gent need for national security reform. The mission of the over-all Project was clear—rewrite the National Security Act of 1947along with the associated Presidential Directives and ExecutiveOrders required to put in place a U.S. national security systemfor the 21st century.Over time, all of the Working Groups would receive man-dates and specic study guidance. This volume is a compilationof some of the Vision Working Group processes and productsthat were used to inform the larger study, based upon work doneover a 3-year period. It is a companion document to the overallstudy,
Forging A New
 
Shield,
released on December 2, 2008, andavailable to download from
www.pnsr.org
. Robert B. Polk andDaniel R. Langberg served as my deputies until this past year.*****No effort of this size can be made without the contributionsof many people. My colleagues in the Project’s Executive Secre-tariat were crucial in our efforts, Jim Locher, Chris Lamb, KateYates, and Carrie Madison. Brian Helmer, who joined us in thelast year, along with Steve Johnson, were extremely supportive.In addition, my colleagues on the leadership team who helpedus immeasurably include Charlie Stevenson, Myra Shiplett, John Bordeaux, Kath Hicks, Dan Gerstein, Richard Weitz, DavidBerteau, Erik Leklem, Vikram Singh, Limor Ben-Har, and KoriSchake. Members of our guiding coalition who deserve specialmention in support of the Vision Working Group efforts are LeonFuerth, whose patience and teachings are incalculable, especiallyhis concepts of “anticipatory governance and forward engage-ment”; Brent Scowcroft, whose overall guidance for several yearshas been essential to our success; and Tom Pickering, who accu-rately provided the Guiding Coalition with a description of ourpreliminary work.Members of the Vision Working Group who each providedseparate and distinct support and guidance include Jim Burke,
 
iiiBill Doll, Joe Gueron, Erik Kjonnerod, David Leech, John Mea-gher, Carmen Medina, Matthew Russell, Chris Waychoff, HansBinnendijk, Brad Botwin, David Couzens, Paul Halpern, PaulHanley, Rudy Lohmeyer, Andy Marshall, and Elton “Thumper”Parker. Research Fellows to the Vision Working Group includeMarcello Abbruzzeti, Lindsey Gehrig, Ian Grant, and Mary Shea.Other research support was provided by Bob Wysocki, MyronStokes, Doug Orton, Trudi Lang, James McHann, Jon Stoffel,Matthew Schmidt, and Chris Wasden. This volume was devel-oped with the support of Caylan Ford, my graduate research as-sistant, and Richard Chasdi, my new deputy.The scenarios we produced would not be as robust as need-ed were it not for Lieutenant General Frances C. Wilson, USMC,President, The National Defense University, whose permissionto work with the three Commandants of The National War Col-lege, Major General Robert P. Steel, U.S. Air Force; The IndustrialCollege of the Armed Forces, Rear Admiral Garry E. Hall, U.S.Navy; and the Joint Forces Staff College, Major General Byron S.Bagby, U.S. Army; and their national security faculty improvedthe scenarios immensely. We are grateful to them all.The scenarios also could not have been developed withoutthe extensive assistance of the National Academies and PatriciaS. Wrightson, Ph.D., Director, Committee on Scientic Commu-nication and National Security, Policy and Global Affairs Divi-sion, who hosted our conference with the scientists who beganour process. We also wish to thank Lieutenant General BrentScowcroft and Dr. John Hennessy, the co-chairs of the Committeeon Scientic Communication and National Security (CSCANS) atthe National Academies who supported our efforts.My work with the Project could not have occurred withoutthe steadfast support of President Stephanie W. Bergeron and Dr.Robert L. Minter, Chief Academic Ofcer of Walsh College, andtheir understanding of the critical work of the Project to the na-tion and the world.One member of the Vision Working Group who merits spe-cial attention is Patti Benner. Her intellectual guidance and per-severance enabled us to think more clearly about the entire as-signment, and I am very grateful to her.Last, but not least, I wish to thank the Strategic Studies Insti-tute (SSI) and the U.S. Army War College, particularly, Dr. JamesPierce, SSI Director of Publications, and his support staff, Ms.Rita Rummel, Mr. Richard J. T. Juday, and Mrs. Jennifer E. Nevilfor their editorial and graphics support.

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