H O OV E R I N S T I T U T I O N

Newsletter
Winter 2005

SENIOR FELLOW CONDOLEEZZA RICE SWORN IN AS U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE

Condoleezza Rice, the Thomas and Barbara Stephenson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, was sworn in as U.S. secretary of state on January 28. She is on leave from the Hoover Institution. In December 2000, she was appointed by President George W. Bush to be assistant to the president for national security affairs. Rice served as a Hoover senior fellow from 1991 until 1993, when she was appointed provost of Stanford University. She held the position of provost for six years, during which time she served as the chief academic and budget officer of the university, before stepping down on July 1, 1999. Rice first came to Stanford in 1981 as a fellow in the arms control and disarmament program. She is a tenured professor in the universitys political science department and was a Hoover Institution national fellow from 1985 until 1986. Following her initial Hoover Institution affiliation, Rice went to Washington, D.C., to work on nuclear strategic planning at the Joint Chiefs of Staff as part of a Council on Foreign Relations fellowship. She came back to Stanford when the fellowship ended. Rice returned to Washington in

HOOVER INSTITUTION JOINS WOODROW WILSON CENTER IN CONFERENCE ON COLD WAR BROADCASTING IMPACT
International researchers and former government officials met in midOctober at the Hoover Institution to address the impact of Western broadcastingespecially Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty (RFE/RL)during the cold war. The conference was held in conjunction with the exhibit Voices of Hope: The Story of Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty. In this exhibit the Hoover Library and Archives covered, from its beginnings to today, the often controversial effort by the United States government to reach listeners with news about their countries and promote democracy. Organizers were the Hoover Institution at Stanford University and the Cold War International History Project (CWIHP) of the Woodrow Wilson Incontinued on page 8

Condoleezza Rice

Courtesy the White House

Go

Online with HOOVER

1989 when she was made director of Soviet and East European affairs at the National Security Council. She also was appointed special assistant to the president for national security affairs and senior director for Soviet affairs at the National Security Council under President George H. W. Bush. In those roles, she helped bring democratic reforms to Poland and played a vital role in crafting many of the Bush administrations policies toward the former Soviet Union. Rices professional activities at Stanford have not been limited to the university. She cofounded the Center for a New Generation, an after-school academy in East Palo Alto, California, and was a corporate board member for Chevron, the Hewlett Foundation, and Charles Schwab. continued on page 9

I N S I D E

EXHIBIT AT WARSAW'S ROYAL CASTLE CELEBRATES HERBERT HOOVERS POLISH LEGACY . . . . . 3 FORDHAM FOUNDATION PRIZE GOES TO SENIOR FELLOW TERRY MOE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Q&A: DAVID BRADY
ON THE NEW WORLD OF ELECTION POLLING .

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www.hoover.org to see What's New, a guide to the very latest news, features, and events of the Hoover Institution, updated daily.

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a Newsweek editor and author of Franklin and Winston: An Intimate Portrait of an Epic Friendship, examined the tactics used by opponents in presidential campaigns during wartime elections. In his remarks at the dinner Monday, October 25, Tucker Carlson, then cohost of CNNs Crossfire, said he felt the most pressing ques- Tucker Carlson tion about the campaign was why Senator John Kerry wasnt further ahead in the polls. Carlson cited challenges faced by the George W. Bush presidency that might dampen support and warned that Bushs time in office would be defined by Iraq. In the first morning session on October 25, the Washington correspondent for the Economist, Adrian Wooldridge, discussed the conservative movement in the United States in his presentation The Right Nation: Conservative Power in America. Very few people called themselves conservatives fifty years ago, said Wooldridge. That number has Richard Perle risen to 41 percent today, with just 19 percent identifying themselves as liberals. In his recent book The Right Nation, which he coauthored with John Micklethwait, they examine the conservative movement in the United States. Richard Epstein, the Peter and Kirsten Bedford Senior Fellow at Hoover, and Stephen Williams, U.S. Court of Appeals judge for the District of Columbia Circuit, discussed property rights. In Treachery: How Americas Friends and Foes Are Secretly Arming Our Enemies, Bill Gertz, reporter for the Washington Times and an analyst for the FOX News Channel, discussed the proliferation of Irshad Manji continued on page 8

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, IRAQ, CONSTITUTION DISCUSSED DURING FALL RETREAT

The Hoover Institution Fall Retreat, October 2426, 2004, again captured the times with speakers addressing current public policy and events. We have won the intellectual battle for ideas that affect a free society, but the transition from proposed solutions to actual policy implementation involves the political process that is Congress. All too often Congress follows the Yogi Berra dictum When you come to a fork in the road, take it. These were part of the welcoming remarks made by Kurt Hauser, Hoover Board of Overseers chairman, at the October 24 dinner, which began the Hoover Institutions Fall Retreat 2004. Hoover fellows, Hauser Kurt Hauser said, address public policy issues by generating ideas to address those issues. These ideas include replacing the Social Security system with private accounts, providing school vouchers to allow parents and students to choose the school they attend, and replacing the current tax code with a flat tax. Hoover director John John Raisian Raisian welcomed participants to the 15th year of the retreats. Each year, since the retreats began in 1989, Raisian said, has led to greater participation. Jon Meacham, the speaker at Sundays dinner, noted that war elections are always ferocious affairs. In his talk, Ballots and Bullets: The Politics of War from FDR and Churchill to Bush and Kerry, Meacham, Jon Meacham
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HOOVER CONFERENCE EXAMINES IRANS NUCLEAR PROGRAM IN WASHINGTON, D.C., AND ON CAMPUS
Recent developments regarding Irans intent and ability to develop a nuclear weapons program, covered widely by the media, highlight the importance of a conference hosted by the Hoover Institution on November 11. The conference, Irans Nuclear Program: International Implications and U.S. Foreign Policy Options, examined Irans capabilities and domestic politics and the international political implications of Irans becoming a nuclear power. The question of whether Iran could develop nuclear weapons was addressed in the first session, Assessing the Iranian Nuclear Program: Technical Capabilities and Intent. The speakers, David Albright, president, Institute for Science and International Security, and Henry Sokolski, executive director, Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, acknowledged that Iran may already be nuclear-ready. In their presentations they discussed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which allows for the development of nuclear power by countries for peaceful purposes. Referring to the treaty,

Sokolski pointed out that they have a right to enrich and if they do, they are within weeks of having a bomb. Hoover senior fellow Sidney Drell, one of the commentators at the session, said, We are dealing with one of the most dangerous problems in the world at this point. Expressing concern about how to decide which countries get access to materials, he recommended that the problem be approached with consistent standards. Yes to Brazil, no to Iranthats not the way to do it, he concluded. Other commentators at the session included Sharam Chubin, director of research, Geneva Centre for Security Policy, and Najmedin Meshkati, professor of engineering, University of Southern California. The session was chaired by Abbas Milani, research fellow, Hoover Institution. In Domestic Politics of Irans Nuclear Program, Milani spoke of the mullahs, Irans religious leaders, as being clever strategists. He believes that they are most afraid of intervention by the United States, as it is the only country that hasnt cut a deal with them. They want North Korean treatment, Milani said, not Saddam Hussein treatment. He criticized the Iranian opposition for not articulating a position, the Europeans for not paying due attention to human rights breaches, and the United States for not having a policy on Iran. continued on page 11

HERBERT HOOVERS ASSISTANCE TO POLAND CELEBRATED WITH EXHIBIT IN WARSAW S ROYAL CASTLE
The lifelong interest in and assistance to Poland by Herbert Hoover, the founder of the Hoover Institution and the United States 31st president, was commemorated with the opening of a special exhibit, American Friendship: Herbert Hoover and Poland on November 12 in Warsaw. Cosponsored by the Hoover Institution and the Royal Castle in Warsaw, the exhibit was opened in the Library of King Stanislaw August Poniatowski, housed in the seventeenth-eighteenth century Tin-Roofed Palace wing of the Royal Castle complex. The exhibition, with a bilingual story line and a printed guide, was at the Royal Castle until January 16. During 2005, it will be exhibited in Lodz, February 15 to March 13; Poznan, May 1 to 31; Krakow, July 4 to August 28; and Wroclaw, September 2 to October 15. Two important anniversaries in 2004the 130th year of Herbert Hoovers birth and the 40th year of his deathwere a backdrop to the exhibition. The exhibition is chronologically divided into parts and includes photographs and documents, as well as historical artifacts illustrating Herbert Hoovers commitmentthroughout his life as a private citizen, statesman, president, and humanitarianto the survival and well-being of Poland. The exhibit items are mostly from Hoover Institution

holdings, with additional documents drawn from the Polish State Archives. The afternoon ceremonies began with the laying of a wreath at the memorial stone in Hoover Square on Hoover director John Raisian (center) joins Krakowskie Przed- Warsaw mayor Lech Kaczynski (right) and the miescie. The open- mayor's wife during the exhibit opening. ing was held in the Great Assembly Hall of the Royal Castle with the participation of representatives of the Polish government, the United States Embassy, as well as Warsaws intellectual and cultural elite. The celebration included a concert by Cantores Minores, the internationally renowned men and boys choir of the Basilica Cathedral of St. John the Baptist in Warsaw. The Hoover Institution delegation to Warsaw, which included some 20 overseers, fellows, staff members, and spouses, was led by Director John Raisian and Herbert Hoover III. The exhibition and the publication of the catalog were made possible by a gift from the Taube Family Foundation. A gift from Henrietta Fankhauser enables the exhibition to travel to the various cities in Poland.
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FORDHAM FOUNDATION 2005 PRIZES FOR EXCELLENCE IN EDUCATION AWARDED; TERRY MOE HONORED FOR SCHOLARSHIP
As part of a recent meeting of the Koret Task Force on Education, the Thomas B. Fordham Foundation 2005 Prizes for Excellence in Education were presented at a dinner on January 13 on the Stanford University campus. Recipients of the prizes, which included a $25,000 award, were Terry M. Moe, Hoover senior fellow, for Distinguished Scholarship; John Brandl, a professor in economics and Terry M. Moe former Minnesota legislator, and Marion Joseph, an advocate for educational reform in California, who shared the Prize for Valor with Brandl. In his opening remarks at the dinner, Hoover director John Raisian lauded the Koret Task Force on its successes. The Koret Task Force on K12 Education is a team of 11 education experts brought together by the Hoover Institution, with the support of the Koret Foundation, to work on education reform. Chester E. Finn Jr., Fordham Foundation president and a Hoover senior fellow, noted the happy confluence of events in the timing of the meeting and the announcement of the prizes. In their acceptance speeches, though, the winners focused on the challenges and solutions in education reform; those who introduced them noted their most significant contributions. Eric Hanushek, Hoover senior fellow, introduced Terry

Moe, citing the books Moe has written and praising his scholarship, noting that Moe is cautious about his opinion until hes done his research. The greatest challenge in education reform is improving schools, Moe said. The difficulty is that for real reforms to happen they must go through political process and politicians want to be reelected. Efforts to create change have been stifled, but there have been successes, Moe said, citing the No Child Left Behind Act and other accountability programs. Paul Peterson, Hoover senior fellow, said in his introduction that as a legislator in Minnesota John Brandl was a leader in education. Politics changed, Peterson said, but Brandl remained committed. Brandl, who supported school choice in Minnesota during his 12 years in the legislature, said that the main argument for efficacy of school choice is that it benefits urban disadvantaged minorities. He added that we must give kids who are trapped this kind of choice. Williamson Evers, Hoover research fellow, introduced Marion Joseph as the single most influential person in California on reading. Joseph cited the need for well-prepared teachers. Teacher training is vital, she said, we must address inadequate teacher training. The Fordham Prizes for Excellence in Education were created in 2003 to recognize and reward distinguished scholars, practitioners, and policy makers who champion education reform. The Thomas B. Fordham Foundation, based in Washington, D.C., supports research, publications, and action projects of national significance in elementary/secondary education reform, as well as significant education reform projects in Dayton, Ohio, and vicinity. Overseers, for a term of three years. The National Board for Education Sciences was created to advise the director of the Institute of Education Sciences on the research activities to be supported by the Institute and to present the director with recommendations for strengthening education research and the funding of the Institute. As such, this board is designed to act as the board of directors for ed- Caroline Minter Hoxby ucational research, similar to the role of the National Science Board for scientific research. Established by the Education Sciences Reform Act of 2002, the Institute of Education Sciences is the research arm of the Department of Education. Its mission is to develop and strengthen the scientific underpinnings of educational policies and practices. In short, its goal is the transformation of education into an evidence-based field in which decision

THREE FELLOWS NAMED TO NATIONAL BOARD FOR EDUCATION SCIENCES

Three Hoover Institution fellows, all members of the Institutions Koret Task Force on K12 Education, were confirmed by the U.S. Senate on November 21 as members of the National Board for Education Sciences. Confirmed were Eric A. Hanushek for a term of two years, Caroline Minter Hoxby for a term of four years, and Herbert J. Walberg for a term of three years. Eric A. Hanushek They joined 11 other individuals nominated for the position by President George W. Bush to form the initial board. Additional confirmed appointments include F. Philip Handy, a member of Hoovers Board of
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makers routinely seek out the best available research and data before adopting programs or practices that will affect significant numbers of students. The Hoover Institutions Koret Task Force on K12 Education is a team of education experts brought together by the Hoover Institution, with the support of the Koret Foundation, to work on education reform. The task force is designed to provide systematic analyses of programs and reform measures that will enhance Herbert J. Walberg the quality and productivity of K12 education.

Jack R. Anderson Senior Fellow at Hoover, as well as Richard Portes, president of the Centre for Economic Policy Research in London. The annual prize was established by IZA with support from Deutsche Post World Net to honor outstanding contributions to the scientific analysis of labor markets and labor policy. Lazear is the third American to win the prize. Previous winners of the award, founded two years ago, were Jacob Mincer and Orley Ashenfelter.

EDWARD LAZEAR NAMED TO PRESIDENTS

ADVISORY TAX REFORM PANEL
Edward P. Lazear, the Morris Arnold Cox Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, on January 7 was named to President George W. Bushs new advisory Tax Reform Panel. Lazear also is the Jack Steele Parker Professor of Human Resources, Management and Economics at Stanford Universitys Graduate School of Business. The new panel was created to study and submit to the U.S. secretary of the treasury a report on revenue-neutral policy options for reforming the Federal Internal Revenue Code. Its report is expected to be submitted by July 31, 2005. Cochairs of the nine-member tax reform panel are former U.S. senators Connie Mack (R-Florida) and John Breaux (DLouisiana).

EDWARD LAZEAR NAMED WINNER OF 2004 PRIZE IN LABOR ECONOMICS FROM IZA
The Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) has named Edward P. Lazear, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and a professor at the Stanford University Graduate School of Business, the winner of its 2004 Prize in Labor Economics. The $62,000 prize was awarded October 25 in Berlin, Edward P. Lazear Germany. The IZA Prize, administered by the Bonn-based Institute, is one of the largest in economics. Lazear has conducted pathbreaking research that has expanded the understanding of labor economics. He has written extensively on labor markets, microeconomic theory, and issues involving worker compensation and its effects on productivity. He began developing research and ideas that became the seminal work in the field of personnel economics as he expanded his teaching from doctoral students to MBA students in the 1970s and 1980s at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business. Lazears work includes studies on employee incentives, such as piece rates, age-earnings profiles, profit-sharing, and career prospects. He has studied hiring and promotion strategies, teamwork, and the organization of work processes. He is the Morris Arnold Cox Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, where he has been a senior fellow since 1985. He is also a senior fellow, by courtesy, at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. The IZA Prize Committee included Nobel Prize winners George A. Akerlof and Gary Becker, the Rose-Marie and

SEYMOUR MARTIN LIPSET HONORED BY NATIONAL ENDOWMENT FOR DEMOCRACY, CANADA

The National Endowment for Democracy and the Embassy of Canada in December inaugurated a new forum for discourse on democracy and its progress worldwide: the Seymour Martin Lipset Lecture on Democracy in the World. The lecture was delivered December 6 by former president of Brazil Fernando Henrique Cardoso. The lecture, which was held at the Seymour Martin Lipset Canadian Embassy in Washington, D.C., is named for one of the foremost scholars of democracy and public intellectuals of the 20th century, Seymour Martin Lipset, a Hoover Institution senior fellow. Lipset also received the Democracy Service Medal of the National Endowment for Democracy. Lipset is also a noted comparative analyst of the two great democracies of North America and a strong advocate for U.S.-Canadian cooperation. continued on page 6
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Lipset continued from page 5 The joint U.S.-Canadian sponsorship of the Lipset Lecture will provide an opportunity for influential audiences in both countries to hear and discuss a major intellectual statement on democracy each year and will serve as a catalyst for further cooperation between Canada and the United States in the promotion of democracy and democratic ideas around the world. We are honored to host the first annual Seymour Martin Lipset Lecture on Democracy in the World with remarks by former Brazilian president Fernando Henrique Cardoso, said Canadian ambassador to the United States Michael F. Kergin. The lecture, which was also cosponsored by the Munk Centre for International Relations of the University of Toronto, will in future years be delivered in both the United States and Canada. Information on the National Endowment for Democracy may be found at www.ned.org.

George Break, Richard Goode, Lowell Harriss, Oliver Oldman, John Due, Arnold Harberger, Wallace Oates, and Martin Feldstein. As deputy assistant secretary of the treasury for tax analysis (198385), McLure was responsible for developing the Treasury Departments proposals to President Ronald Reagan that became the basis of the Tax Reform Act of 1986, the most comprehensive reform of the income tax since its introduction in 1913. He was also staff director of the Working Group on Worldwide Unitary Taxation appointed by Secretary of the Treasury Donald Regan at Reagans request.

SHELBY STEELE AWARDED 2004 NATIONAL HUMANITIES MEDAL

Hoover Institution research fellow Shelby Steele was one of seven distinguished Americans and one historical society awarded the 2004 National Humanities Medal for their contributions to the humanities on November 17 by President George W. Bush. At a White House ceremony, the president presented National Humani- Shelby Steele ties Medals to Hoovers Steele, as well as to Marva Collins, Gertrude Himmelfarb, Hilton Kramer, Madeleine LEngle, Harvey Mansfield, John Searle, and the United States Capitol Historical Society. The National Humanities Medal, first awarded in 1989 as the Charles Frankel Prize, honors individuals and organizations whose work has deepened the nations understanding of the humanities, broadened citizens engagement with the humanities, or helped preserve and expand Americas access to important humanities resources. Steele was cited for his learned examinations of race relations and cultural issues, which reveal a profound commitment to freedom and belief in the bright future of our Nation. Steele specializes in the study of race relations, multiculturalism, and affirmative action.

CHARLES MCLURE RECOGNIZED BY NATIONAL TAX ASSOCIATION

Charles McLure Jr., Hoover senior fellow, is the 2004 recipient of the National Tax Associations (NTAs) Daniel Holland Medal. He received the award at the 97th Annual Conference on Taxation in Minneapolis in November. The Holland Medal, the NTAs most prestigious award, is named after Daniel Holland, the longtime editor of the National Tax Journal. Charles McLure Jr. According to the NTA guidelines, the Holland Medal is presented to an NTA member for distinguished lifetime contributions to the study and practice of public finance. Past recipients comprise an elite group in the area of public finance: Carl Shoup, Richard Musgrave,
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HOOVER INSTITUTION NEWSLETTER

The Hoover Institution Newsletter is published quarterly and distributed by the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-6010, 650/7230603, fax, 650/725-8611. 2005 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanwww.hooverdigest.org Quarterly Hoover Digest available online ford Junior University. Send comments and requests for information to www.educationnext.org Presents the facts about education reform, gives voicewithout fear or favorto Newsletter Editor Michele M. Horaney, APR, Manager of Public Affairs. Staff: worthy research, sound ideas, and responsible arguments. Public Affairs Writer: LaNor Maune, Newsletter Production: Wm Freeman, www.policyreview.org The preeminent publication for new and serious thinking and writing about the issues Stanford Design Group. The Hoover Institution Home Page is on the World of our day. At this site find select articles from the current issue as well as an archive Wide Web at www.hoover.org. of back issues, subscription information, and useful links to other web sites. The Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace, Stanford University, www.chinaleadershipmonitor.org Seeks to inform the American foreign policy community about current trends in China's leadership politics and in its foreign and domestic policies. founded in 1919 by Herbert Hoover, is one of the leading centers in the world devoted to interdisciplinary scholarship in domestic and international affairs.

www.hoover.org Comprehensive information about the Institution, its fellows, work, scholarly output, and outreach

MEDIA FELLOW JULIET EILPERIN DISCUSSES

THE ENVIRONMENT
The stakes are very high, said Juliet Eilperin, Washington Post reporter, in her talk January 6 titled Searching for Clarity in the Midst of a Spin Storm: Covering the Environment in the Nations Capitol. In her third visit to the Hoover Institution as a media fellow, Eilperin discussed her new beatreporting on the environment and the difficulties in obtaining accurate informationat a luncheon where she was the featured speaker. As a Washington, D.C., native, Eilperin grew up immersed in politics. After graduating from Princeton University in 1992, she spent the next 10 years covering politics. Before joining the Washington Post in 1998, she covered politics and economics for an English-language magazine in Seoul, South Korea, on a Luce Scholarship and wrote for States News Service and Roll Call newspaper. After having covered a political beat for so long, she decided that she needed a change, which led her to focus on environmental issues. he Hoover Institution presents a wide range of opinions, expert research, and commentary in four recognized and acclaimed publications: Hoover Digest, Education Next, Policy Review, and China Leadership Monitor. Below are highlights of the latest issues of each publication: Hoover Digest www.hoover.digest.org The Agenda: The Battles Half Won, by Senior Research Fellow Milton Friedman The War on Terror: The Real Humanists, by Senior Fellow Victor Davis Hanson International Relations: The Human Faces within the Gulag, by Hoover Archives West European Collection curator Bradley Bauer Her transition to environmental reporting has had its share of challenges, she said. Eilperin believes covering the environment is just as controversial as covering politics. Another concern she discussed is, due to cutbacks on factchecking at print and broadcast outlets, reporters need to rely on people to give them accurate information. When she researches to confirm facts she is provided (by politicians and environmentalist alike), she often finds their facts are wrong or misleading. The need for accuracy is significant because, as Eilperin said, information affects public policy. The Media Fellows Program allows print and broadcast media professionals to spend time in residence at the Hoover Institution. Media fellows have the opportunity to exchange information and perspectives with Hoover scholars through seminars and informal meetings and with the Hoover and Stanford communities in public lectures. As fellows, they have

the full range of research tools the Hoover offers available to them. More than 100 of the nations top journalists have visited the Hoover Institution recently and interacted with Hoover fellows on key public policy issues, including Michael Doyle, McClatchy News, January 2427 Steve Chapman, Chicago Tribune, January 2327 Tom Edsall, Washington Post, January 1721 Rick Atkinson, Washington Post, January 1721 Amy Finnerty, freelance journalist, January 1114 Jonathan Kay, National Post (Canada), January 1015 John Fensterwald, San Jose Mercury News, January 1014 Andy Nagorksi, Newsweek, December 1317, 2004 Richard Berke, New York Times, December 610 David Alpern, Newsweek, December 610 David Hoffman, Washington Post, December 610

Education Next www.educationnext.org The Moral Imperative: Character Education, Soul by Soul, at the Hyde Schools, by James Traub Where Have All the Dollars Gone? An NCLB Lawsuit Fizzles, by Brad Bumsted Paying Teachers Properly, by Senior Fellow Chester E. Finn Jr. Hard America, Soft America: Competition vs. Coddling and the Battle for the Nations Future, by Michael Barone, reviewed by Nathan Glazer Policy Review www.policyreview.org We, a Community in Agreement on Fundamentals, by Research Fellow Tod Lindberg Eminem is Right: The Primal Scream of Teenage Music, by Research Fellow Mary Eberstadt

Iraq without a Plan: Next Time, Listen to the Generals, by Michael E. OHanlon Enlightenment Rightly Understood: Research Fellow Peter Berkowitz on The Roads to Modernity: The British, French, and American Enlightenment, by Gertrude Himmelfarb China Leadership Monitor www.chinaleadershipmonitor.org Foreign Policy: The Rise and Descent of Peaceful Rise, by Robert L. Suettinger Military Affairs: Anticipation Is Making Me Wait: The Inevitability of War and Deadlines in Cross-Strait Relations, by James Mulvenon Party Affairs: Commemorating Deng to Press Party Reform, by Research Fellow H. Lyman Miller
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Muslims Call for Reform. The gadfly is an annoying little insect, she said, that picks at cows, disrupting the herd mentality. She believes that Muslims currently do not know how to have discussions and called on them to rediscover their lost tradition of independent thinking. In the last session of the morning, Andrew Napoli- Morris Fiorina tano, former judge of the Superior Court of New Jersey and now a senior judicial analyst with Fox News Channel, discussed the erosion of civil rights over the last 30 years. He discussed his concerns that the Fourth Amendment, which reads, in part, the right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, Pete Wilson against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, is in danger. The final session of the retreat was the Countdown to the 2004 Election in which Hoover fellows Morris Fiorina and Pete Wilson discussed polling and the November presidential election.

continued from page 2

arms, which he considers one of the greatest threats to the United States, drawing on material from his book by the same name. Other presentations during the day included those on The U.S. tax system War and the Iraq invasion Civil rights legislation Conservatives and progressives Irans nuclear program North Koreas nuclear program Imperialism Media coverage of war On October 26, Elena Danielson, Hoover associate director, began the morning sessions by discussing the acquisitions, exhibits, and conferences coordinated by the library and archives. Also that day, Richard Andrew Napolitano Perle, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, spoke on The Future of Europe: Two Models, noting that we are engaged in a war against terrorism that is deeply and intensely ideological, like communism, fascism, or nazism, in that it presents a vision in which the terrorists are prepared to die. We need effective strategies to combat it. The power of the gadfly was described by Irshad Manji, activist and author of The Trouble with Muslims: A

IMPACT OF COLD WAR BROADCASTING

continued from page 1 ternational Center for Scholars. The conference, which was held during October 14 to 16, was made possible by a gift from the Bernard Osher Foundation. The Annenberg Foundation Trust at Sunnylands is sponsoring a synthesis of the conference results. Vaclav Havel, once a dissident and later president of the Czech Republic, welcomed conference participants in a video message. He said that the influence and significance of RFE/RL broadcasts had been great and profound. George P. Shultz, Hoover distinguished fellow, opened the conference. He said that the research presented would
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Human rights activist Elena Bonner (center) spoke at the cold war broadcasting conference about the power of Radio Free Europe/Radio Libery. Joining her at left is Hoover director John Raisian and at right is Distinguished Fellow George P. Shultz.

O O V E R

O N F E R E N C E S
aid to steps to improve governance such as curbing corruption. His major publications include Defending the National Interest: Raw Materials Investment and American Foreign Policy (1978), Structural Conflict: The Third World against Global Liberalism (1985), and Sovereignty: Organized Hypocrisy (1999). Publications he has edited include International Regimes (1983), Exploration and Contestation in the Study of World Politics (coeditor, 1999), and Problematic Sovereignty: Contested Rules and Political Possibilities (2001). He received a B.A. degree in history from Cornell University, an M.A. degree in international affairs from Columbia University, and a Ph.D. degree in political science from Harvard.

SENIOR FELLOW STEPHEN KRASNER NAMED

DIRECTOR OF POLICY PLANNING AT

U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT

demic circles for his work on governance and the limits of the authority of states in the m o d e r n Stephen Krasner world. Krasner spent a year in Washington at the beginning of the Bush administration, first on policy planning at the State Department and then with Condoleezza Rice at the National Security Council. He helped formulate the Millennium Challenge Account, a new approach to development assistance that ties increased lations and foreign affairs, including Germany Unified and Europe Transformed: A Study in Statecraft, with Philip Zelikow (Harvard University Press, 1995). Rice enrolled at the University of Denver at the age of 15, graduating at 19 with a bachelors degree (cum

Stephen Krasner, a Hoover Institution senior fellow, has been named director of policy planning for the U.S. State Department and will work closely with newly confirmed U.S. secretary of state Condoleezza Rice, also a Hoover senior fellow. Krasner is also director of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at Stanford Universitys Institute for International Studies. He came to Stanford in 1981 from Harvard University and the University of California, Los Angeles. At Stanford, he was chairman of the political science department from 1984 to 1991. He is widely known in aca-

CONDOLEEZZA RICE
continued from page 1 She has written numerous articles and several books on international re-

laude) in political science. She earned a masters degree at the University of Notre Dame and a doctorate degree from the University of Denvers Graduate School of International Studies. Both of her advanced degrees are also in political science.

Impact of Cold War Broadcasting continued from page 8

contribute to a better understanding of an important period of world history and contribute to our ability to structure communications in the new global political arena. Hoover director John Raisian introduced human rights activist Elena Bonner and RFE/RL president Tom Dine, who addressed the meeting. The conference was organized by Hoover research fellow A. Ross Johnson. Participants included Elena Bashkirova, president of the Romir survey research firm in Moscow; Professor Istvan Rev, head of the Open Society Archives in Budapest; Oleg Kalugin, a former KGB general; and former officials of the RFE/RL, Voice of America, and British Broadcasting Corporation.

The conference discussed papers based on research in previously inaccessible East European and former Soviet archives. These materials include secret Communist Party discussions of broadcasting impact and propaganda countermeasures, secret police plans to penetrate RFE/RL, directives on jamming, and internal secret audience surveys. This research will now be enriched by work in the extensive RFE/RL corporate records and broadcast archives, which have been donated to the Hoover Institution (http://hoorferl.stanford.edu). Hoover associate director Elena Danielson, who cohosted the conference, announced the opening of most of this collection for research. The Hoover Institution and the CWIHP will publish a summary of the proceedings and an edited volume of key papers and translated archival documents.
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Q&A
ENTERING THE BRAVE NEW WORLD OF ELECTION POLLING
FELLOW TITLE

David Brady Deputy director and senior fellow, Hoover Institution; Bowen H. and Janice Arthur McCoy Professor of Political Science and Ethics, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University; professor of political science, School of Humanities and Sciences, Stanford University. U.S. Congress, congressional decision making, political history of U.S. Congress, history of U.S. election results Out of Step, Out of Office (with John Cogan), American Political Science Review, March 2001; Change and Continuity in House Elections (with John Cogan and Morris Fiorina) (Stanford University Press, 2000); Revolving Gridlock: Politics and Policy from Carter to Clinton (Westview Press, 1999) Recipient, Congressional Quarterly Prize for the best paper on a legislative topic, 1995 and 2000; Dinkelspiel Award for Excellence in Undergraduate Teaching, Stanford University, 2000; Phi Beta Kappa Award for best teacher at Stanford University, 1993; Richard F. Fenno Award, American Political Science Association, for the best book on legislative studies published in 198889. Member, American Academy of Arts and Sciences. B.S. and M.A. degrees, Western Illinois University; Ph.D., University of Iowa president asked Kerry whether he would have gone into Iraq knowing that there were no WMDs. Kerry took two days to think about it and then said he would have. Kerry thus made his position, and Bushs, relatively similar, prohibiting Kerry from pushing the war issue. Not until the first debate did Kerry go on the attack and set himself apart from Bush; subsequently the race tightened. There was a lot of time wasted, however, and many voters viewed the events as further proof that Kerry flipflopped. Q: So how did it look during the last seven days or so before the election? A: When elections are so close, professionals look for late movement, and on the last weekend, we saw Bush starting to fall in the polls and Kerry gaining. Thus, most analysts thought that Kerry would narrowly win the electoral vote, if not the popular vote.

RESEARCH

PUBLICATIONS

AFFILIATIONS, BACKGROUND

Q: When you look back on the presidential election of 2004, were there any major strategic or tactical errors? A: No, the Democrats had to make the campaign and election a retrospective on the Bush presidency by claiming that the economy was not doing well and that Bush had handled the war in Iraq poorly. The GOP, on the other hand, argued that the economy was all right and that John Kerry wasnt an acceptable alternative in the areas of terrorism and the war in Iraq. In short, both campaigns had reasonable strategies and followed them. Q: Did the polls show that campaigns had any effect? A: Yes. In April Bush was even with Kerry on economic and educational issues and ahead on terrorism and overall leadership qualities. By late October, Kerry was ahead on economic and education issues, showing a campaign effect. Kerry, however, had not cut into Bushs lead on the terrorism issue, showing that the GOP campaign had been successful in portraying Kerry as an unacceptable alternative. Q: Do you think polls make a difference in the campaign? A: The polls do make some difference in what happens as an election
10

DEGREES

progresses. Keep in mind that the Democratic national convention was at the end of July. The Republicans didnt convene until early September. The GOP worried that its late start would give Kerry a healthy bump in the polls and that the public would view Kerry for a whole month as a winner. To combat this possibility, the Republicans had a series of negative ads ready to go if Kerrys poll numbers had gone really high. When Kerry didnt get much of a bump, the GOP went to ads that were positive toward Bush. Q: Many voters from both parties point to the Democrats as causing a lot of their own problems in the election. True? A: I think the Democrats made one major mistake, which involved Kerry, the candidate. The Republican national convention did give Bush a bump, putting him ahead in the polls. When Kerry began to criticize the war, the

As we know, however, the Republican effort to register new voters and turn them out carried the day. Q: What is the problem or problems with the polls? A: Pollsters have difficult times these days because the turndown rate of potential respondents is so high. In some cases, a pollster must call 100 people to get 8 to 10 responses, which does not yield an accurate sample. Fewer people are home to answer the phone, many people screen their calls with answering machines, and cell phone numbers arent in directories that can be used by pollsters. Also, keep in mind that 25 percent of

those who told pollsters they were registered to vote are not registered; after the election, a survey of those polled earlier revealed that 10 percent of those who voted say they didnt vote. Thus, estimating by means of a phone interview who will turn out to vote is difficult. Q: Whats your view of exit polls on the day of the election? A: Voters coming out of the polls used to be asked, Who did you vote for? Now, the news organizations get together and pool their questions, so answering an exit poll can take 25 to 30 minutes. In the November election, the

early exit polls were inaccurate because more women than men and more Democrats than Republicans were willing to take the time to respond to the questionnaires. So the early exit poll interview results showed Kerry ahead. By the end of the day, these sampling errors were essentially corrected, but the damage had been done. We need to find good ways to correct our polling methodology; using the Internet and better telephone polling methods will be two of the ways. With the amount of competition and money that goes into polling, myriad inaccuracies wont be tolerated either by the reporting organization or by the public.

IRANS NUCLEAR PROGRAM

continued from page 3 This session also included a presentation by Ali Nayeri, who has researched Irans educational system as to whether it could produce scientists capable of building a nuclear bomb. Nayeri concluded that it was possible but that it would be easier to import such a weapon. As the commentator in this session, Hoover senior fellow Michael McFaul posed questions on the prospects of democracy in Iran and, if it was a democracy, whether it would dismantle its nuclear program. The session was chaired by Larry Diamond, senior fellow, Hoover Institution. I think Iran does seek nuclear weapons, said Shahram Chubin, Geneva Centre for Security Policy, in his presentation as part of the final session, International Political Implications of Irans Nuclear Quest. In determining why Iran would seek nuclear weapons, he said he could not identify urgent strategic reasons. Geoffrey Kemp, director of regional strategic programs at the Nixon Center, discussed the policy of the United States toward Iran. He believes that the Bush administration has outsourced the policy to the European

Research Fellow Abbas Milani (at podium) leads discussion on domestic politics of Iran's nuclear program. Seated from left are Senior Fellow Larry Diamond, Ali Nayeri of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Senior Fellow Michael McFaul.

Union due to gridlock resulting from the Iraq war. The commentator was Scott Sagan, codirector, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University. The session was chaired by McFaul. The closing discussion was chaired by Milani and included participation by the conference speakers. The Hoover Institution, under its Iran Democracy Project, cosponsored a similar conference on November 9 with the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, D.C. The daylong conference was televised by C-SPAN. Participants in Washington who were

unable to attend the conference in Palo Alto were Robert Einhorn, senior adviser of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; Haleh Esfandiari, director of the Middle East Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center; and Robert Litwak, director of the division of international studies at the Woodrow Wilson Center. The Iran Democracy Project is under the umbrella of the Hoover initiative on the Transition to Democratic Capitalism. Organizers of the project, Hoover fellows Larry Diamond, Abbas Milani, and Michael McFaul, were in Washington as participants, along with several speakers unique to that venue.
11

Research Fellow William Whalen discussed the first anniversary and record of California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger on KPIX-TV (CBS, San Francisco) and KTVU-TV (Fox) television on November 17. Whalen was interviewed about changes in the Bush cabinet on KRON-TV (Independent, San Francisco) on November 15. Research fellow Kiron Skinner discussed the U.S. secretary of state confirmation hearings for Condoleezza Rice, Hoover fellow and national security adviser, on a number of news programs and stations including American Morning on CNN, KPIX-TV (CBS, San Francisco), KNX News Radio (Los Angeles), and BBC World News Radio on January 18 and Voice of America and National Public Radio on January 19. Skinner discussed Rices nomination in November on stations including KCALTV (Independent, Los Angeles), KOKHTV (Fox, Oklahoma City), KTVU-TV (Fox, San Francisco), WLFL-TV (WB, Raleigh/Durham, N.C.), WPGH-TV (Fox, Pittsburgh), WOFL-TV (Fox, Orlando, Fla.), WSTR-TV (Cincinnati), WVTV-TV (WB, Milwaukee), on November 16 and WBFF-TV (Fox, Baltimore) and WTTG-TV (Fox, Washington, D.C.) on November 17. Research Fellow Donald Abenheim discussed Condoleezza Rices nomination on KPIX-TV (CBS, San Francisco) on November 16. Senior Fellow Abraham Sofaer addressed her nomination on KRON-TV (Independent, San Francisco) on November 15 and KNTV-TV (NBC, San Francisco) on November 16. Senior Fellow Martin Anderson was interviewed about Rice on KGO-TV (ABC, San Francisco) on November 16. Senior Fellow Larry Diamond discussed the approaching election in Iraq on Daybreak on CNN-TV on January 14;
12

Morning Edition on National Public Radio on January 11. Senior Fellow Henry Miller discussed the safety of Americas drug industry on The Nightly Business Report on PBS on December 21. Senior Fellow Abraham Sofaer was interviewed about the international relations aspect of aid to tsunami victims in South Asia on Lou Dobbs Tonight on CNN-TV on January 10. Racial profiling was discussed by Research Fellow Shelby Steele on Cover to Cover on CNBC-TV on January 7. Research Fellow Mary Eberstadt, author of the book Home Alone, was interviewed on The Frank Beckman Show on WJR radio (ABC, Detroit) on December 15. Senior Fellow Michael McFaul discussed the political situation in Ukraine and the poisoning of presidential candidate Victor Yushchenko on World News Now on ABC-TV on December 12 and 13 and on Good Morning America on ABC-TV on December 12. He also discussed Ukraine and the election on In the Money on CNN on December 4. Senior Fellow Victor Davis Hanson addressed immigration on Lou Dobbs Tonight on CNN on December 8.

Lou Dobbs Tonight and Headline News on CNN-TV on January 13; Talk of the Nation on National Public Radio on January 10 and on December 16. He also was interviewed about the situation in Iraq and Iran on KCBS radio (CBS, San Francisco) on November 15. Senior Fellow Timothy Garton Ash was the guest on The Charlie Rose Show (PBS) on November 12, where he discussed his new book Free World. Research Fellow Peter Robinson joined a panel of former presidential speechwriters to discuss President George W. Bushs inaugural speech on Talk of the Nation on National Public Radio on January 13. Research Fellow William Ratliff was featured on Marketplace Morning Report on National Public Radio on January 12 discussing Chinas economy. Research Fellow Russell Roberts presented commentary on the Food and Drug Administration and its withdrawal of painkillers from the market on

UNCOMMON KNOWLEDGE
Uncommon Knowledge, the weekly public affairs television program coproduced by the Hoover Institution and KTEH-TV (PBS) in San Jose, presents a wide array of issues and guests in new segments for the winter of 20045 now available on the Public Broadcasting Service. Hosted by Emmy-nominee and Hoover research fellow Peter Robinson, the program is broadcast by more than 50 PBS stations across the United States. The audio content is carried overseas by National Public Radio International. Details about each segment are available at the Hoover Institution Web site, www.hoover.org. New programs this season include Unconventional Wisdom: Torture and the War on Terror Guests: Peter Berkowitz, professor of law, George Mason University, and research
continued on page 15

The next test for the Western governments that have spoken out so effectively on behalf of democracy in Ukraine will come when a democratically elected government committed to political reform and liberalization there seeks to bind itself more closely to Western institutions, most notably NATO and the European Union. Who can deny that access to Western institutions, especially NATO and the EU, has been an enormous catalyst for political reform and the consolidation of democracy in these countries? It would be a tragedy if the courageous Orange Revolutionaries, so strongly and rightly supported by friends of freedom in the West, subsequently knocked on the doors of Western institutions only to find them barred. Freedom is perishable. We who enjoy it need to maintain our commitment to it. Tod Lindberg, research fellow, Washington Times, December 14, 2004 To summarize: After World War II, opinion was socialist while practice was free market; currently, opinion is free market while practice is heavily socialist. We have largely won the battle of ideas (though no such battle is ever won permanently); we have succeeded in stalling the progress of socialism, but we have not succeeded in reversing its course. We are still far from bringing practice into conformity with opinion. This is the overriding non-defensive task for the second Bush term as President Bush clearly recognizes. It will not be an easy task, particularly with Iraq threatening to consume his political capital. Milton Friedman, senior research fellow, Wall Street Journal, December 9, 2004 The history of the European Union can be told as a story of the expansion of freedom: from the original six postwar democracies in western Europe; to 12 member states, including three former dictatorships in south Europe; to 25,

including many of the former Communist states of central and eastern Europe; and now onto the Balkans, Turkey, and, one day, Ukraine. It cant go on forever, obviously. If Europe is everywhere, it will be nowhere. So the European Union must decide what to offer neighbors that cannot be members. But for now, the European power of induction is working its magic on the streets of Kiev and Istanbul. The wisest use of American strength is to advance freedom, President Bush has said. Yet by overlooking the true dimensions of European power, America is failing to recognize the potential of what could be its greatest ally in the most hopeful project of our time: the advancement of liberty around the world. Timothy Garton Ash, senior fellow, New York Times, December 17, 2004 In a time of global environmental interdependence and anxiety over security, we should insist on far more careful screening of imported food from all government agencies, and demand that our most productive farmland not be lost to suburbanization. Agricultural autonomy is not reductionist protectionism, but a way to avoid the type of petroleum depen-dence that has left us vulnerable to blackmail by illegitimate and dangerous regimes abroad. Victor Davis Hanson, Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow, New York Times, December 9, 2004 There is good reason that deductibility of health-care spending should figure prominently in the tax-reform debate. It will be a critical step in achieving objectives of both conservatives and liberals in health-care policygreater re-

liance on market forces, increased efficiency, fewer uninsured, and greater fairness. It is an idea whose time has come. John Cogan and Daniel P. Kessler, senior fellows, and R. Glenn Hubbard, Wall Street Journal, December 8, 2004 Many Europeans believe that their slow economy is the price they must pay for their elaborate welfare state. This, however, turns out to be an illusion. A recent study by the Austrian Labor Council shows that the portion of GDP devoted to the social safety net is greater in the United States than it is in Europe; although European states generously pay out more in welfare benefits, they take much more back through higher taxes. Russell A. Berman, senior fellow, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, November 30, 2004 An effective way for poorer nations to respond in the longer run (to natural disasters) would be to encourage greater investment in education. Since education raises the earnings of individuals and per-capita incomes of countries, education clearly makes it easier to cope with disastersas [John Stewart] Mill had already recognized. Beyond that, however, my colleague Casey Mulligan and I have shown that educated persons take a much longer time perspective in their personal decisions. This means that they are much more likely to anticipate the incidence and location of natural catastrophes when they decide where to live and how their houses are built, and they better protect themselves in other ways as well. Gary S. Becker, senior fellow, Wall Street Journal, January 4, 2005

13

Home-Alone America: The Hidden Toll of Day Care, Behavioral Drugs, and Other Parent Substitutes by Mary Eberstadt
ISBN 1-59523-004-1

Population Puzzle: Boom or Bust? Edited by Laura E. Huggins and Hanna Skandera
ISBN: 0-8179-4532-6

Herman Wouk: The Novelist as Social Historian by Arnold Beichman

ISBN: 0-7658-0836-6

Drawing both the ire and the praise of social commentators, Hoover research fellow Mary Eberstadts new book Home-Alone America: The Hidden Toll of Day Care, Behavioral Drugs, and Other Parent Substitutes (Sentinel, 2004) opens the proverbial can of worms on the subject of how children are raised in America. Some, as indicated by the New York Times book review title New Salvo Is Fired in Mommy Wars, view the book as attacking working mothers. Others, such as scholar John Q. Wilson in the Wall Street Journal, have praised it, saying, The great and, to me, unarguable theme of Mary Eberstadts Home-Alone America is that families are a very good thing and parental care is of decisive importance in shaping the character of our children and thereby the culture of our country. The essence of Home-Alone America, Eberstadt says, is that over the past few decades, more and more children have spent considerably less time in the company of their parents or other relatives, and numerous fundamental measures of their well-being have simultaneously gone into what once would have been judged scandalous decline. It is the argument of this book that the connection between those two facts cannot possibly be dismissed as coincidence.
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The controversy over the planets ability to support its growing population that began with Thomas Malthus in 1798 is still being debated today. In Population Puzzle: Boom or Bust? (Hoover Institution Press, 2005), the question of overpopulation and other population-related issues are discussed. The purpose of this primer, according to the editors Laura E. Huggins, a Hoover research fellow, and Hanna Skandera, California undersecretary for education and a former Hoover research fellow, is to provide an overview of the issues surrounding world population growth. Part I of Population Puzzle provides background on the various theories pertaining to population growth, examines the fundamental ethical issues and dividing lines relating to population, and highlights the debate between Paul Ehrlich and Julian Simon. In the next two parts a variety of opinions on how the growth of population affects resources such as water and food are offered. Part IV explores the arguments of prosperity by design and prosperity laissez-faire style. Part V addresses the important question, who should decide what is best when it comes to population policy? And Part VI tackles the pitfalls of predictions. Each section of the book is prefaced with a brief overview and introduction, along with relevant facts, figures, quotes, and often a supplementary snapshota specific example that captures the issue at hand.

The book Herman Wouk: The Novelist as Social Historian (Transaction Press, 2004), by Hoover research fellow Arnold Beichman, first issued in 1984, was recently reissued. This classic edition includes a new introduction that brings Wouks writings over the last two decades (including his recently released A Hole in Texas) up to date. Given the turbulent times of the first few years of the 21st century, this book will interest a new generation of readers in the writings of Wouka living legacy of work that exemplifies an extraordinarily perceptive preoccupation with American society in war and peace. Upon reading this new edition, William F. Buckley commented, How fine to have Arnold Beichmans guide to the funniest and most readable and most moving of contemporary authors! Beichman, a political scientist, writer, and former journalist, has been a visiting scholar and research fellow at the Hoover Institution since 1982. He is a regular columnist for the Washington Times, and his articles are published in numerous newspapers across the United States and Canada. Beichman has been a member of the editorial advisory board of the Washington Times since 1984.

UNCOMMON KNOWLEDGE
continued from page 12 fellow, Hoover Institution; Jenny Martinez, professor of law, Stanford University What, U.S. Worry? Is the United States Losing Its Competitive Edge? Guests: Craig Barrett, chief executive officer, Intel; Stephen Moore, president, the Club for Growth; Peter Thiel, president, Clarium Capital Management Time Has Come Today: Global Population and Consumption Guests: Paul Ehrlich, professor of biological sciences, Stanford University, coauthor, One with Ninevah: Politics, Consumption and the Human Future; Steven Hayward, fellow, Pacific Research Institute Vive la Difference: Gender Differences and Public Policy Guests: Steven Rhoads, professor of public policy, University of Virginia, and author, Taking Sex Differences Seriously; Deborah Rhode, professor of law, Stanford University, author, Speaking of Sex A Line in the Test Tube: The Debate over Stem Cells Guests: Ramesh Ponnuru, senior editor, National Review; Irving Weissman, di-

Reagans Path to Victory: The Shaping of Ronald Reagans Vision: Selected Writings Edited by Kiron Skinner, Annelise Anderson, and Martin Anderson
ISBN: 0-7432-2706-9

Reagans Path to Victory: The Shaping of Ronald Reagans Vision: Selected Writings (Free Press, October 2004) is an indispensable collection of the core ideas of the 40th president of the United States, in his own words. Completing the mission they began in their two previous volumesthe New York Times best sellers Reagan: A Life in Letters and Reagan, In His Own HandHoover research fellows Kiron K. Skinner, Annelise Anderson, and Martin Anderson, Keith and Jan Hurlbut Senior Fellow, here offer the most important of Reagans unpublished writings. In addition, former secretary of state George P. Shultz, Hoover distinguished fellow, has written a foreword for the book. In Reagans Path to Victory the material is arranged to reveal how Reagan developed his message for America, as well as his campaign tactics, through the essays he wrote for his nationally syndicated daily radio addresses between January 1975 and October 1979. Rich in political insights, Reagans Path to Victory is also a personal tribute, featuring facsimile reproductions of four of his most interesting commentaries and an audio CD containing 20 of Reagans original recordings.

rector, Institute for Cancer/Stem Cell Biology and Medicine, Stanford University An American Hiroshima: Preventing Nuclear Terrorism Guests: Graham Allison, professor of government, Harvard University, and author, Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe; Scott Sagan, codirector, Stanford Center for International Security and Cooperation, and coauthor, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed Divorce, Transatlantic Style? The Future of the Transatlantic Alliance Guests: Coit Blacker, director, Stanford Institute for International Studies; Niall Ferguson, professor of history, Harvard University, and senior fellow, Hoover Institution; Josef Joffe, editor and publisher, Die Zeit Homeland Insecurity: Homeland Security Guests: Frances Edwards, director, San Jose Office of Emergency Services; Stephen Flynn, senior fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, and author, America the Vulnerable Great Expectations: The Future of the European Union Guests: John OSullivan, editor, National Interest; Adrian Wooldridge, Washington correspondent, The Economist

RODNEY KENNEDY-MINOTT, 76
Rodney Glisan Kennedy-Minott, 76, a Hoover Institution research fellow, former U.S. ambassador to Sweden, and history professor at Stanford University, died December 15 in Monterey, California. Kennedy-Minott also was an author and professor at California State UniversityHayward. A longtime Democratic Party activist, Kennedy-Minott was an early supporter of Jimmy Carters presidential campaign and served as Carters campaign chairman for Northern California in 1976. The following year, Carter appointed him ambassador to Sweden. Kennedy-Minott was a native of Portland, Oregon, and an army veteran, serving as a sergeant in postwar Japan. At Stanford, he earned a bachelors degree in 1953, a masters degree in 1956, and a doctorate in U.S. history in 1960. During the 1990s, he was an instructor at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, specializing in environmental and diplomatic issues. He is survived by three children. A memorial service was held January 12 in San Francisco.

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STUDENTS IN ESTABLISHED CHARTER

SCHOOLS ARE PROFICIENT IN READING, MATH, STUDY BY KORET TASK FORCE MEMBER REPORTS
Nationwide, a higher percentage of students in established charter schools are judged proficient on the state reading and math examinations than are those in the nearest traditional public school. If a charter school has been operating for more than nine years, 10 percent more of its students are scoring at or above the proficiency level in both subjects than their public school peers. This finding comes from a recent study by Caroline Hoxby, a member of Hoover Institutions Koret Task Force on K12 Education and a professor of economics at Harvard University. The study compares the performance of charter school students with students in the nearest traditional public school. Ninetynine percent of all elementary students in charter schools are included in the study. For charter schools in operation from five to eight years, Hoxby found that 5 percent more of their students reach proficiency in reading than their public school peers. The advantage in math is 4 percent. For charter schools that have been in operation from one to four years, the advantage in reading is 2.5

percent. Overall, 5 percent of charter school students are more likely to be proficient in reading and 3 percent are more likely to be proficient in math on their states exams than their public school counterparts. (All differences are statistically significant.) Hoxby also found that students in charter schools that receive at least 40 percent of local public school funding do particularly well on the state exams. Additionally, charter schools in areas with a high percentage of poor or Hispanic students appear to provide a special advantage for their students, as compared to the neighboring public school. By adjusting for schools that serve at-risk students, the study focused on regular charter schools that are expected to meet the same standards as traditional public schools. The studys matching method compared charter schools to public schools that are likely to share the same neighborhood, the same economic conditions, and the same population of students and parents. The selection of a neighboring public school ensured that the groups of students being compared were as similar as possible. It is also likely that the public school selected for comparison was the school that most of the charter school students would have attended had there been no charter school. A copy of the report is available from the Program on Education Policy and Governance at www.ksg.harvard.edu/pepg/.

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