To: Wulsin for Congress

From: Margie Omero

Re: Recent polling results

Date: June 29, 2008

According to our recent poll in Ohio’s 2nd Congressional district, Victoria Wulsin is
within striking distance of Congresswoman Jean Schmidt, who is unpopular and viewed
as ineffective.

Voters are Ready for Change

Voters are pessimistic about the national climate. Seven in ten (71%) say the country is
on the wrong track, with fewer than two in ten (16%) sensing it is going in the right
direction.

This pessimism extends across demographic lines. Among no subgroup we examined

were voters more optimistic than pessimistic about the national direction. This pervasive
dissatisfaction does not bode well for Schmidt.

Schmidt Viewed as
Schmidt’s Image Is Weak Ineffective,
Unpopular
Schmidt image
70
Schmidt’s popularity is
60
8
anemic. Voters are as
50 45 45
likely to dislike her
(45% net unfavorable)
40
19
24 28 as like her (45% net
30 29 favorable). The
intensity of opinion
20 27

26
reveals further Schmidt
25
10 weakness. More are
16 14
11
7
0 “very unfavorable”
Net fav Net unfav DK/nvr hr d Net positive Net negativ e DK (26%) toward her as
Darker shade = stronger intensity
“very favorable” (16%).
Strong incumbents
strive for a favorable-to-unfavorable ratio of 2-to-1. Schmidt’s ratio is half that, at 1-to-1,
as many (45%) are favorable toward her as unfavorable (45%).
Schmidt’s job ratings are even lower than her favorability numbers. Only one-third
(33%) have a positive view of Schmidt’s performance in office, either “excellent” (7%)
or “good” (27%). Over half (53%) have a negative view of her job performance. Again,
this is a clear sign of weakness. Incumbents strive for a positive-to-negative ratio of 1.5-
to-1. But Schmidt falls quite short, with a ratio of 0.6-to-1. Even among Republicans,
Schmidt’s job ratings are mediocre, at best (47% positive, 40% negative).

As Many Want to Replace Schmidt as Re-elect Her

Schmidt’s weak image

More Will At Least Consider Replacing translates into weak
Schmidt Than Want To Re-Elect Her support for Schmidt in
Would you vo te to re-elect Congresswoman Jean Schmidt, would you consider voting for November. When
someone else, or would you vote to replace Congresswoman Jean Schmidt, or aren’t you
sure? asked whether they
DK/ref
would vote to re-elect
16% Schmidt, only about a
re-elect third (36%) said they
36%
would. About as many
(33%) would prefer to
replace Schmidt; an
additional 15% are
48%
48% consider
consider willing to consider
replace another/replace
33% someone other than
consider another
15% Schmidt (48% total).
Schmidt is even weak
with her partisan base.
Just half of Republicans (50%) said they would vote to re-elect Schmidt.

Wulsin Within Striking Distance

In the horserace,
Wulsin Is Within Single Digits Of Schmidt Wulsin is within single
Schmidt Falls Well Short Of Majority Support digits of Schmidt (33%
Congressional vote Wulsin, 41% Schmidt),
70 despite months of
Schmidt
Schmidt advantage:
advantage: +8
+8
60
attacks from her
Democratic Primary
50
41% net Schmidt opponent and from
40
33% net Wulsin 5
Schmidt herself.
10
Schmidt’s low vote
30 5
5 share includes initially
20 undecided voters who,
10
24 26
6% net Krikorian 19
when prompted, lean
2
2
toward Schmidt. A safe
0 2
incumbent strives for at
Wulsin Schmidt Krikorian Undec
Darker shade = stronger intensity least majority support

Momentum Analysis (June 2008) page 2

before leaners are included. Schmidt fails to reach this important threshold.

Schmidt does not receive majority support in any subgroup except Republicans, among
whom she only receives 62%, and the small group of voters who think the country is on
the right track (72%). But even Schmidt’s performance within her own party is weak, as
Wulsin has done a better job of consolidating Democrats (70% of Democrats vote for
Wulsin).

Wulsin is within striking distance, and our poll shows that, with sufficient resources, she
can defeat Jean Schmidt in November.

This memo reflects the findings of a survey of 500 likely voters in Ohio’s 2nd Congressional District.
Interviews were conducted by telephone, June 24-26, 2008. A voter file was used, further screened for
likely November 2008 voters. The margin of error for the sample overall is +/-4.4%. The margin of error
for subgroups is larger.

Momentum Analysis (June 2008) page 3