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PakistanandSaudiArabia
StrategicAllianceforthe
21
st
Century
ByZaidHamid
EnvironmentandHistory:
TheMiddleEastisbeingre-shaped;notjustthepoliticsbutalsothegeographyoftheMuslimworldischangingaccordingtotheNeo-cons'visionforthe21
st
century.MultipleMuslimgovernmentsareintheprocessofbeingsystematicallydismantledandstatefailuresarebeingcreatedinmanyMuslimlands.Iraq,Afghanistan,Sudan,Somaliaarealreadyeitherfailedstates,underoccupationordismembered.AtpresenttheUSINATOarebusyruiningLibyaandSyriaandindestabilizingEgypt.IsraelisalreadyplanningtoexpandintotheSinaideserttakingadvantageofthechaosinEgypt.Oncethosetheatresarecontained,Pakistan,IranandSaudiArabiawouldbetargetedmoreaggressively.Pakistanisalreadyunderanimposedwar.Pakistanisundera
VICIOUS4th
generation,highintensitydecentralized,urbanwardesignedtodisintegratethestate.TheUSandIndiaarewagingthiswarjointlyprimarilyfromAfghanistan.Multipleinsurgencies,corruptCIAplantedgovernment,economiccollapse,sectarianandreligiousviolenceandahostilemediahasisolatedthecountry'sarmedforceswhoaredesperatelyfightingtokeepthenationintact.Pakistan'sarmyremainsastrongfederatingunitandallnuclearweaponsaresafeandundercontrol.Pakistanipatriotshavestartedacounterattackinthecivilsociety,mediaandarmedforcestore-group,re-organizeanddefendthecountrywiththesupportofthearmedforces.ThesituationisbeingbroughtundercontrolbutthebiggesthurdleremainsthepresentcorruptPPPregime.TheArmydoesnotwanttoimposeamartiallawandisaloneinfightingtheanti-Stateelementsongroundandinthesociety.ForPakistan,China,IranandSaudiArabiaremainthemostcriticalalliesandregionalnations.IranhasrecentlybeenengagedbythePakistanipatriotsandnowtheIranianpolicytoagreatextenthasbeenbroughtinlinewithPakistan'snationalsecurityneeds.Iranisastablestatewithapowerfulgovernmentandastrongarmy.TheNeo-conswouldtargetIranlater.ButSaudiArabiaisamatterofgreatconcernforPakistan.Historically,SaudiArabiahasbeenthestrongestallyandabrotherlynationforPakistan.ThelandofHijazandHaramainofMakkahandMedinaareinSaudiArabiamakingthecountrythespiritualcentreofgravityforPakistanaswell.Thepolitical,economicandsecuritycooperationbetweenPakistanandSaudiArabiahasbeenphenomenal.Over1.5millionPakistanisliveandworkinSaudiArabia.PakistaniarmedforceshavebeenthemosttrustedandreliableassetforSaudiArabiaunderallthreatenvironments.
 
Timetestedfriends!
PakistanibrigadeswouldnormallybedeployedinSaudiArabiaandPakistaniinstructorsandtrainerswouldalwaysbeintheKingdomtosupportSaudiarmedforces.PakistanhasalwaysremainedareliablestrategicallyforSaudiArabia,providingeventheultimatenuclearumbrellaincaseofanIsraelinuclearthreattotheKingdomandtotheMuslimholycitiesofMakkahMukarramahandMedinaMunawwara.ThereisnowayanycountrycanattackSaudiArabiaaslongasthePakistaniarmedforcesareintactandavailabletodefendtheholylands.Subsequently,ifSaudiArabiaweretobeattacked,dismemberedoroccupied,PakistanandthePakistaniarmedforceshavetobeneutralized,engagedanddismembered.Thisispreciselythereasonforwagingthepresenthighintensity
4th
generationwaragainstPakistanbytheCIA,NATOandtheNeo-cons.TheSaudileadershipismostuncomfortablewiththePPPregimeandZardari.ThebiggestheadachefortheSaudisatthemomentisthattheirrelationswiththepoliticalgovernmentinIslamabadareatanalltimelowdespitehavingexcellentrelationswiththePakistaniarmedforces.SaudiswantastableandstronggovernmentinIslamabad.ForthelastmanymonthsPakistandoesnotevenhaveanambassadorinSaudiArabia.IndiaontheotherhandisaggressivelypursuingitseconomicanddiplomaticinterestsinSaudiArabia.IndiangovernmentisfullyexploitingSaudifearsofUSeconomyandisinvitingalmost$600bnofSaudiinvestmentsintoIndia.TheIndianworkershavenowexceededPakistanforthefirsttimeinhistorytoaround2millionintheKingdom.IndianbusinessmenareinvestingheavilyintheSaudimarketsinhotels,shoppingmallsandservices.TheIndianambassadortoSaudiArabiahasrecentlybeenawardedthehighestSaudiawardforimprovingrelationsbetweenIndiaandSaudiArabia.
TheThreatAxisand
theAnalysis:
There-shapingoftheMiddleEastandthetopplingoftheregimesintheArabworldhascreatedagenuinethreatfortheSaudiKingdomandthehouseofSaud.Forthefirsttimeinthelast90years,thehouseofSaudisunsureaboutitssurvivalandisinavulnerableposition,fearingapublicuprisingandtopplingoftheirregimethroughinternalandexternalfactors.SaudiArabiafacesthreatsfrommultipleaxes:
•InternaldissentanduprisingasinEgypt,TunisiaandSyriaetc.
KingAbdullahhasjustannouncedamassive$28bnpackageforthenationtocalmthemassesagainstanypossibilityofsuchanuprisingorrebellion.Massivediscounts,salaries,pensionsandjobshavebeenofferedtotheSaudis.
•ShiainsurgencyandrebellioninEasternprovinces.
ThisisthereasontheyhadtoactuallysendinforcestosuppressBahrainriotsbasicallytopreventaShiatakeoverofeasternSaudiregions.TheShiafactorinYemenisalsocreatingthreatsforthem.Iranisbeingviewedasthemajorenemystatefomentingviolence,rebellionsandunrestinShiamajorityareas.Saudi-Iranrelationsareatalltimelowandtheythemselveshavealimitedcapacitytoresolvetheirmutualdifferences.TherebellioninBahrainhassomewhatfrizzledoutandnowtheSaudisare
 
makingsubstantialeffortstoreachouttoTehraninordertoarriveatapointofreconciliation.•TherebellioninYemen-ThisisalsodrawingtheSaudisintoanotherlocalwarintheregion.ThesetribesarenotShiasbutmorelikethereligiousfanaticterroristsofTTPinPakistanwhoarewagingawarbothagainsttheYemengovernmentandtheSaudis.Saudiarmedforceshavetakenseriouslossesthereandnow
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thereisanurgentneedtoprotectthisaxis.ManyPakarmytrainersarepresentinsouthernregionsofSaudiArabiatrainingtheirarmyformountainwarfare.TheSaudisaresupportingthegovernmentofAbdullahSaleh,whoiswoundedandundertreatmentinRiyadh.•TheAmericanconnection:
It
isnowbeingviewedasbetrayalbytheSaudisaswell,exactlyasithadprovedforHosniMubarak.TheAmericanshavealreadylaunchedthesofteningupoperationsontheSaudisociety
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leadershipandtocreateinternaldissentwithinthepopulation.
•
FratricidewithinthehouseofSaud.AmericansaredeviouslymaneuveringandplanningtobringabouttheirfavoritemanasthenextSaudileader,bypassingthesenioritychain.Consequentlyleadingtoacivilwaramongtheprinces,resultinginthebalkanizationoftheSaudiArabianpowerstructure.ThisisthemostprobablescenarioasthetwoseniormostleadershavehealthissuesandtheAmericanswanttobringafavorablemantothetop.ThedivisionwithintheArabworldisnothelpingtheSaudicauseaswell.SyriasupportedtheShiarebellioninBahraininsupportofIran.Qatarissupportingtherebellionagainstpro-SaudiPresidentSalehinYemenandalsoagainsttheanti-AmericanQaddafiinLibya.OneSaudifriendusedtheword"majnoon",insane,foractionsofQataraddingthatitwillbringdowneveryoneintheregion.Saudisarecurrentlyinastateofrapiddamagecontrol.
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