Thayer Consultancy

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BackgroundBriefing: VietnamU.S.Agreementon MedicalCooperation CarlyleA.Thayer August3,2011

[clientnamedeleted] VietnamandtheUnitedStatesjustsignedastatementofintentregardingamilitary medical partnership. There is the possibility that the US could relocate its Naval MedicalResearchUnit2fromHawaiitoVietnam.Wewouldlikeyourassessmentof thefollowing: Q1. How significant a development is this, given the countries' historical relationship? ANSWER:TheagreementbyVietnamandtheUnitedStatesrepresentsaimportant evolutionintheirdefencerelations.Thisisthefirstsignedagreement.Bothparties areequalpartners. Vietnam has signed a number of Memoranda of Understanding covering medical cooperationwithothercountriesAustralia,France,GermanyandNewZealand,for example.Thisisasafeformofcooperationbecauseitoffersbenefitstobothsides and is not threatening to a third country. But military medical cooperation is probablytheleastcontroversialformofdefencecooperation. Q2. Would the relocation of a US military facility on Vietnamese soil represent a highpointintherelationshipsincediplomaticlinkswerereinstated? ANSWER: UptonowVietnameseofficialshave invariableunderscoredthatnoU.S. militarypersonnelarebasedinVietnam.Thisagreementonmedicalcooperationwill change that and thus represents a significant step forward potentially paving the wayforotherformsofdefencecooperation. IfUSmilitarymedicalpersonnelarepermittedtoweartheiruniformsinpublicthis wouldbeapotentsignaltoChina. Q43.HowdoyouthinkthisaffectsSinoVietnameserelations,particularlyinlightof recentdevelopmentsintheSouthChinaSea? ANSWER: Earlier this year China and Vietnam agreed to step up their defence cooperation. Publicly China is not in a position to criticize a normal activity by a sovereign state. Privately Chinese officials will read the worst into VietnameseUS cooperation. They will see this as the thin wedge in an expanding defence

2 relationship aimed at China. But USVietnam cooperation of this nature will not affectVietnamsbilateralrelationswithChina. Q4.Isthetimingoftheannouncementsignificant? This agreement comes just after the anniversary of normalization of diplomatic relations in July. The timing is significant because it follows the ASEAN related meetingsinJakartawherethestresswasputoncooperativerelations.Vietnamese UScooperationinmilitarymedicinedemonstratesthattheUShasaroletoplayin addressingnontraditionalsecurityissuesanditfurtherdemonstratesthattheUSis aresidentpowerinthePacific.