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Thayer Vietnam's New Government an Evaluation

Thayer Vietnam's New Government an Evaluation

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Published by Carlyle Alan Thayer
Seven brief analyses of Vietnam's new Government and the Cabinet ministers appointed by Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung.
Seven brief analyses of Vietnam's new Government and the Cabinet ministers appointed by Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung.

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Categories:Types, Research, History
Published by: Carlyle Alan Thayer on Aug 15, 2011
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08/15/2011

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Background Briefing:Vietnam: New CabinetForecastCarlyle A. Thayer
July
 
20,
 
2011
 
[client
 
name
 
deleted]
 
1.
 
As
 
the
 
National
 
Assembly
 
is
 
going
 
to
 
rubber
 
stamp
 
the
 
new
 
leadership
 
next
 
week,
 
what
 
what
 
is
 
your
 
assessment
 
of 
 
such
 
appointments?
 
ANSWER:
 
At
 
the
 
eleventh
 
party
 
congress
 
seven
 
ministers,
 
who
 
were
 
members
 
of 
 
the
 
Central
 
Committee,
 
failed
 
to
 
gain
 
re
election
 
to
 
the
 
Central
 
Committee.
 
Since
 
Central
 
Committee
 
membership
 
is
 
a
 
prerequisite
 
for
 
appointment
 
at
 
ministerial
 
level
 
this
 
meant
 
that
 
these
 
ministers
 
would
 
have
 
to
 
step
 
down.
 
The
 
new
 
National
 
Assembly
 
will
 
have
 
the
 
opportunity
 
to
 
vet
 
and
 
approve
 
all
 
Cabinet
 
nominations
 
including
 
the
 
eight
 
ministries
 
who
 
lost
 
their
 
ministers:
 
Foreign
 
Affairs,
 
Home
 
Affairs,
 
Planning
 
and
 
Investment,
 
Construction,
 
Information
 
and
 
Communications,
 
Science
 
and
 
Technology,
 
Natural
 
Resources
 
and
 
Environment
 
and
 
Health.
 
Six
 
of 
 
the
 
new
 
ministers
 
are
 
former
 
deputy
 
ministers
 
in
 
the
 
same
 
department.
 
Their
 
election
 
will
 
represent
 
continuity
 
in
 
leaderships.
 
Two
 
ministries,
 
Information
 
and
 
Communication
 
and
 
Natural
 
Resources
 
and
 
Environment,
 
will
 
have
 
outsiders
 
appointed
 
as
 
ministers.
 
In
 
both
 
cases
 
the
 
new
 
ministers
 
will
 
be
 
moved
 
from
 
posts
 
within
 
the
 
party
 
apparatus.
 
Nguyen
 
Bac
 
Son,
 
the
 
deputy
 
head
 
of 
 
the
 
party’s
 
Ideology
 
and
 
Propaganda
 
Committee,
 
would
 
seem
 
best
 
equipped
 
to
 
take
 
up
 
the
 
post
 
of 
 
Minister
 
of 
 
Information
 
and
 
Communication.
 
Nguyen
 
Minh
 
Quang,
 
who
 
is
 
the
 
party
 
chief 
 
for
 
Central
 
Agencies,
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
face
 
a
 
major
 
challenge
 
in
 
his
 
new
 
portfolio
 
as
 
Minister
 
of 
 
Natural
 
Resources
 
and
 
Environment.
 
I
 
think
 
the
 
most
 
important
 
sign
 
will
 
be
 
the
 
number
 
of 
 
votes
 
each
 
prospective
 
minister
 
receives.
 
A
 
low
 
vote
 
will
 
indicate
 
a
 
lack
 
of 
 
confidence.
 
Overall,
 
the
 
National
 
Assembly
 
looks
 
set
 
to
 
approve
 
a
 
team
 
that
 
can
 
work
 
effectively
 
with
 
Prime
 
Minister
 
Nguyen
 
Tan
 
Dung.
 
The
 
Prime
 
Minister
 
has
 
also
 
selected
 
four
 
deputy
 
prime
 
ministers,
 
one
 
less
 
than
 
before.
 
This
 
should
 
be
 
a
 
more
 
cohesive
 
team
 
than
 
the
 
five
 
deputy
 
prime
 
ministers
 
in
 
the
 
last
 
term.
 
2.
 
Do
 
you
 
believe
 
that
 
the
 
National
 
Assembly
 
will
 
be
 
able
 
to
 
sustain
 
its
 
momentum
 
of 
 
opening
 
the
 
floor
 
for
 
heated
 
debates
 
and
 
grilling
 
cabinet
 
members,
 
given
 
that
 
a
 
cabinet
 
member,
 
Deputy
 
PM
 
Nguyen
 
Sinh
 
Hung,
 
is
 
being
 
installed
 
as
 
the
 
new
 
house
 
speaker?
 
Why
 
or
 
why
 
not?
 
ANSWER:
 
Ever
 
since
 
1992
 
when
 
the
 
new
 
Constitution
 
and
 
new
 
Electoral
 
Law
 
ws
 
adopted,
 
deputies
 
to
 
the
 
National
 
Assembly
 
have
 
played
 
an
 
increasingly
 
important
 
role
 
in
 
creating
 
a
 
law
 
governed
 
state.
 
The
 
new
 
deputies
 
will
 
inherit
 
the
 
legacy
 
of 
 
previous
 
legislatures.
 
Nguyen
 
Sinh
 
Hung
 
will
 
no
 
longer
 
occupy
 
the
 
post
 
of 
 
deputy
 
prime
 
minister
 
and
 
will
 
therefore
 
not
 
have
 
a
 
conflict
 
of 
 
interest
 
when
 
Cabinet
 
ministers
 
are
 
questions.
 
Sinh
 
will
 
soon
 
learn
 
that
 
his
 
role
 
is
 
one
 
of 
 
political
 
broker
 
and
 
consensus
 
seeker
 
The
 
quality
 
of 
 
the
 
new
 
deputies
 
will
 
ensure
 
that
 
they
 
take
 
on
 
their
 
responsibility
 
to
 
review
 
government
 
policy
 
and
 
the
 
performance
 
of 
 
individual
 
ministers.
 
In
 
sum,
 
the
 
new
 
legislature
 
will
 
build
 
on
 
the
 
legacy
 
of 
 
the
 
past
 
but
 
ina
 
gradual
 
manner.
 
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
 
2
 
3.
 
On
 
of 
 
the
 
most
 
significant
 
features
 
of 
 
the
 
outgoing
 
National
 
Assembly
 
in
 
the
 
lat
 
tenure
 
wad
 
the
 
absence
 
of 
 
a
 
watershed
 
policy
 
on
 
boosting
 
the
 
agriculture
 
sector.
 
Don’t
 
you
 
agree
 
with
 
this
 
and
 
do
 
you
 
see
 
grounds
 
for
 
hope
 
that
 
the
 
new
 
leadership
 
will
 
take
 
drastic
 
measures
 
to
 
address
 
this
 
shortcoming?
 
ANSWER:
 
Policy
 
is
 
set
 
by
 
the
 
Cabinet
 
and
 
by
 
ministers.
 
Vietnam’s
 
development
 
strategy
 
favours
 
the
 
urban
 
areas
 
and
 
are
 
skewed
 
towards
 
promoting
 
industrial
 
growth.
 
I
 
do
 
not
 
see
 
any
 
signs
 
that
 
these
 
priorities
 
will
 
be
 
altered
 
by
 
the
 
Government.
 
Since
 
deputies
 
cannot
 
initiate
 
legislation
 
the
 
initiative
 
for
 
reform
 
of 
 
the
 
agriculture
 
sector
 
must
 
come
 
from
 
the
 
Cao
 
Duc
 
Phat
 
who
 
is
 
being
 
re
nominated
 
as
 
Minister
 
of 
 
Agriculture
 
and
 
Development.
 
4.
 
What
 
should
 
Vietnam’s
 
new
 
leadership
 
do
 
to
 
address
 
the
 
rising
 
wealth
 
disparity
 
that
 
has
 
bogged
 
down
 
the
 
nation’s
 
development
 
over
 
the
 
past
 
decades?
 
How
 
will
 
the
 
rising
 
landlessness
 
of 
 
Vietnamese
 
farmers
 
exacerbate
 
the
 
problem?
 
ANSWER:
 
For
 
many
 
years
 
the
 
land
 
issue
 
has
 
been
 
the
 
cause
 
of 
 
numerous
 
public
 
protests
 
and
 
disturbances.
 
The
 
solution
 
is
 
not
 
to
 
discourage
 
individuals
 
from
 
becoming
 
wealthy,
 
but
 
to
 
ensure
 
that
 
the
 
law
 
is
 
applied
 
equally
 
to
 
all.
 
This
 
means
 
giving
 
priority
 
to
 
addressing
 
corruption
 
or
 
the
 
intervention
 
of 
 
wealth
 
in
 
politics.
 
The
 
Government
 
should
 
continue
 
to
 
develop
 
appropriate
 
social
 
welfare
 
measures
 
to
 
address
 
the
 
problems
 
of 
 
those
 
who
 
live
 
in
 
poverty.
 
 
 
Background Briefing:Vietnam: Evaluating the NewGovernmentCarlyle A. ThayerJuly 20, 2011
[client
 
name
 
deleted]
 
1.
 
How
 
do
 
you
 
evaluate
 
the
 
performance
 
of 
 
the
 
Government
 
over
 
the
 
past
five
 
years?
 
What
 
are
 
its
 
main
 
achievements
 
and
 
main
 
weaknesses?
 
Vietnam’s
 
Government
 
successfully
 
weathered
 
the
 
global
 
financial
 
crisis
 
through
 
a
 
stimulus
 
package
 
and
 
maintained
 
social
 
stability
 
at
 
the
 
same
 
time.
 
A
 
major
 
achievement
 
has
 
been
 
to
 
maintaining
 
comparatively
 
high
 
economic
 
growth
 
rates
 
during
 
this
 
difficult
 
period.
 
The
 
major
 
shortcoming
 
was
 
the
 
Cabinet’s
 
failure
 
to
 
maintain
 
effective
 
oversight
 
over
 
state
 
conglomerates
 
such
 
as
 
Vinashin
 
and
 
the
 
inability
 
of 
 
the
 
Anti
Corruption
 
Steering
 
Committee
 
to
 
effectively
 
deal
 
with
 
corruption.
 
2.
 
How
 
do
 
you
 
assess
 
Prime
 
Minister
 
Nguyen
 
Tan
 
Dung’s
 
role
 
in
 
economic
 
management
 
during
 
his
 
first
 
term
 
in
 
office?
 
The
 
Prime
 
Minister
 
is
 
a
 
nationalist
 
who
 
promotes
 
the
 
role
 
of 
 
large
scale
 
state
 
industries
 
to
 
protect
 
Vietnam
 
from
 
global
 
competition.
 
The
 
Prime
 
Minister
 
is
 
also
 
a
 
person
 
accustomed
 
to
 
getting
 
his
 
own
 
way.
 
The
 
Prime
 
Minister
 
now
 
needs
 
to
 
adopt
 
a
 
more
 
consultative
 
approach
 
to
 
decision
making.
 
He
 
should
 
win
 
the
 
confidence
 
of 
 
former
 
officials
 
many
 
of 
 
whom
 
feel
 
their
 
advice
 
and
 
counsel
 
is
 
treated
 
in
 
a
 
perfunctory
 
manner.
 
3.
 
Who
 
will
 
be
 
the
 
major
 
new
 
appointments
 
in
 
the
 
Government?.
 
The
 
re
election
 
of 
 
Nguyen
 
Tan
 
Dung
 
as
 
prime
 
minister
 
will
 
be
 
reassuring
 
to
 
the
 
international
 
community
 
as
 
there
 
was
 
some
 
uncertainly
 
over
 
what
 
leadership
 
role
 
he
 
might
 
assume
 
following
 
the
 
eleventh
 
party
 
congress.
 
Nguyen
 
Tan
 
Dung
 
is
 
a
 
leader
 
who
 
has
 
successfully
 
turned
 
the
 
role
 
of 
 
prime
 
minister
 
into
 
a
 
proactive
 
one.
 
In
 
2007
 
he
 
unsuccessfully
 
sought
 
to
 
decrease
 
the
 
number
 
of 
 
deputy
 
prime
 
ministers
 
and
 
add
 
some
 
new
 
blood.
 
This
 
time
 
the
 
numbers
 
of 
 
deputy
 
prime
 
ministers
 
will
 
be
 
reduced
 
from
 
five
 
to
 
four.
 
Two
 
deputy
 
prime
 
ministers
 
are
 
his
 
protégés
 
who
 
have
 
been
 
re
elected.
 
Nguyen
 
Thien
 
Nhan
 
will
 
have
 
to
 
prove
 
his
 
is
 
capable
 
in
 
this
 
office
 
after
 
his
 
experience
 
with
 
the
 
education
 
portfolio.
 
Hoang
 
Trung
 
Hai
 
has
 
proven
 
that
 
he
 
is
 
capable
 
in
 
stepping
 
up
 
as
 
permanent
 
deputy
 
prime
 
minister.
 
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

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