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The Book “The structure of global catastrophe. Risks of the huma...
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download doc file here:
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The Book “The structure of global catastrophe. Risks of the human extinction in the 21st Century” of A.V. Turchin is scientific research of the global risks, which threaten existence of humanity in this century. In the first part of the book different sources of global risks are examined.
In the first chapter are discussed general principles of the study and are given background of the question.
At the beginning the risks, connected with nuclear weapon, are examined. Nuclear winter and cobalt bomb is examined.
In the following chapter the risks, connected with the global chemical infection, are examined. Then are examined the risks, created by biological weapon. DNA sequansors in the future they will create the possibility of the appearance of bio hackers. The conclusion is that the simultaneous appearance many bio hackers in the future is very essential risk. Even if people survive, is possible the loss of the biosphere as a result of the application “green goo”.
Then is examined the possibility of appearance over the narcotic, which will turn off people from reality.
In the fourth chapter are examined the risks, created by strong artificial intellect AI.
Then shown analysis of the risks of nano-technologies. The appearance of military nano-robots is extremely dangerous. Furthermore, is possible the creation “gray goo” by hackers. The unlimited multiplication of replicators can lead to the extinction of people. The scenarios of the output of robots from under the control are examined.
In 8 chapter the methods of the provocation of natural catastrophes by technical equipment are investigated. The possibility of the man-made explosion of superes-volcano, deviation of asteroids and intentional destruction of ozone layer is studied.
In 9 chapter the risks, connected with the fundamentally new discoveries, are examined. This include risks, connected with the dangerous physical experiments, for example, on the large hadron collider LHC. Are examined scenarios of the appearance of microscopic black holes, strangelaets, magnetic monopoles, phase transitions of false vacuum. The risks of deep drilling and penetration into the mantle of the Earth in the spirit of Stevenson's probe are discussed.
In 10 chapters the risks, created by future space technologies, are examined. The mastery of space with the aid of the self-multiplying robots will make possible to free enormous destructive forces. Are considered kseno biological risks.
In 11 chapters are examined the risks, connected with the program SETI. Is extremely dangerous the rash load of the extraterrestrial messages, which can contain description and drawings of artificial intellect hostile to us.
In 12 chapters different natural catastrophes, which are powerful to lead to the loss of civilization, are examined. This and the loss of the universe as a result of new Big Bang, and the eruption of supervolcano, and global earthquakes, and a drop in the asteroids, and Gammaray bursts and solar flares, and supernovas.
In 13 chapters are examined extremely improbable scenarios of extinction.
In 14 chapters it is told about the influence of antropic principle and observant selection on frequency and probability of natural catastrophes.
15 chapter are dedicated to global warming, in the spirit of Lavlock and Karnaukhova which can result in nature of greenhouse catastrophe with an increase in the temperature higher than boiling point of water.
In 16 chapter are examined the anthropogenic threats, not connected with the new technologies - exhaustion of resources, weakening of fertility, overpopulation, displacement by another specie, social economic crisis.
17 chapter are dedicated to the methods of detecting the new scenarios of global catastrophes. Is examined the theory of the Doomsday machine.
Chapter 18 is dedicated to the multifactor scenarios of risk. Here is examined the tende
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