Street, S.E., Washington, D.C. 20003
August 22, 2011TO: Brad Sherman for CongressFR: Diane FeldmanRE: Recent Poll
________________________________________________________________________ Congressman Brad Sherman is the likely winner of the election in the new 30
congressional district. These are the results of a just completed survey in the newcongressional district from initial match-ups with no information given about eithercandidate:Sherman currently represents just over half the voters in the new 30
Sherman is strong in his current district (CD27)
, winning 52 percent support there in thethree way match-up with only 9 percent for Berman and 24 percent for Reed. In contrast,Berman barely ekes out a plurality in the less than a quarter of the district that he currentlyrepresents (CD28), leading Sherman by only 32 percent to 30 percent, while Reed draws21 percent support.Despite his prominence in Washington,
Berman has a far lower profile in his district than Sherman has in his
. Just 37 percent of voters are favorable toward Bermanin his own district (14 percent unfavorable) and only 27 percent are favorable to him in the
Survey of 600 likely general election voters in the new 30
CD in California conducted by professionalinterviewers August 14-18, including an oversample of likely primary voters down weighted to theirproportion in the electorate; margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points for the general electorateand plus or minus 5 percentage points for the primary.
Congressman Brad Sherman, Democrat 42%
Businessman Mark Reed, Republican 26%Congressman Howard Berman, Democrat 17%
Congressman Brad Sherman, Democrat 51%
Congressman Howard Berman, Democrat 24%
Under the new California election law, all voters aregiven the opportunity to choose among all candidates in the June primary. The top two candidates go on to the November ballot, even if they are both from the same party.