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Table Of Contents

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
List of Figures
List of Tables
List of Boxes
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
INTRODUCTION
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
HIGHLIGHTS
Government Policies and Measures
Population
Macroeconomic Factors
Energy Prices
Figure 1.2:Growth in Real GDP Per Capita by Region
Technological Developments
GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
Primary Energy Mix
Regional Trends
Sectoral Trends
Energy Production and Trade
Resources and Production Prospects
Investment in Energy Infrastructure
Energy-Related CO2Emissions
OIL MARKET OUTLOOK
Demand1
Supply
Resources and Reserves
Trade
Implications of Deferred Upstream Investment
GAS MARKET OUTLOOK
Demand
Production
COAL MARKET OUTLOOK
Reserves and Production
Inter-Regional Trade
Coal Supply Costs and Investment
POWER SECTOR OUTLOOK
Electricity Demand Outlook
Power Generation Outlook
Energy-Related CO2Emissions from Power Generation
The Economics of New Power Plants
Capacity Requirements and Investment Outlook
Power Generation Investment Trends in the OECD
Investment Trends in Developing Countries
MAPPING A NEW ENERGY FUTURE
Background
Why an Alternative Policy Scenario?1
Methodology
Policy Assumptions
Energy Prices and Macroeconomic Assumptions
Global Energy Trends
Primary and Final Energy Mix
Energy Intensity
Investment and Fuel Expenditures
Oil Markets
Energy Security in Importing Countries
Chapter 8-Assessing the Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Policies 193
ASSESSING THE COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF ALTERNATIVE POLICIES
Investment along the Electricity Chain
Demand-Side Investment
Supply-Side Investment
Implications for Energy Import Bills and Export Revenues
Implications for Consumers
Barriers to Investment in End-Use Energy Efficiency
DEEPENING THE ANALYSIS: RESULTS BY SECTOR
Power Generation
Summary of Results
Electricity Mix
Policy Assumptions and Effects
Transport
Road Transport
Aviation
in the Alternative Policy Scenario
Industry
Residential and Services Sectors
GETTING TO AND GOING BEYOND THE ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENARIO
Making the Alternative Policy Scenario a Reality
Identifying Policy Priorities
Beyond 2030: the Need for a Technology Shift
THE IMPACT OF HIGHER ENERGY PRICES
Introduction
Energy Price Trends and Relationships
International Prices
Final Prices to End Users
Quantifying Energy Subsidies
Impact of Higher Energy Prices on Demand
Energy Demand Trends since Prices Started Rising
Responsiveness of Energy Demand to Price Changes
Explaining Recent Trends in Energy Demand
Price Sensitivity Analysis
Macroeconomic Impact of Higher Energy Prices
How Higher Energy Prices Affect the Macroeconomy
Quantifying the Recent Shift in the Terms of Trade
Simulating the Macroeconomic Effects of Higher Energy Prices
Explaining Macroeconomic Resilience to Higher Energy Prices
Energy Policy Implications
CURRENT TRENDS IN OIL AND GAS INVESTMENT
Overview
Exploration and Development
Investment Trends
Impact of Cost Inflation on Upstream Investment
Implications for Oil and Gas Production Capacity
Oil Refining
Liquefied Natural Gas Facilities
Gas-to-Liquids Plants
Oil Sands and Extra-Heavy Oil
Investment Beyond the Current Decade
PROSPECTS FOR NUCLEAR POWER
Current Status of Nuclear Power
Renewed Interest in Nuclear Power
Nuclear Power Today
Historical Development
Policy Overview
Nuclear Power Generation
Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management
Proliferation and International Conventions
Outlook for Nuclear Power
Reference Scenario
Alternative Policy Scenario
Nuclear Power Economics in Competitive Markets
Generating Costs under Different Discount Rate Assumptions
Figure 13.8: Electricity Generating Costs in the High Discount Rate Case
Sensitivity Analysis of Nuclear Power Generating Costs
Financing Nuclear Power Plants
Nuclear Fuel Outlook
Demand for Uranium
Uranium Resources14
Uranium Production
Policy Issues
THE OUTLOOK FOR BIOFUELS
Current Status of Biofuels Production and Use
Market Overview
Ethanol
Biodiesel
The Environmental Impact of Biofuels
Prospects for Biofuels Production and Use
Summary of Projections to 2030
Key Drivers and Uncertainties
Technology and Production Costs
Biomass and Land Needs for Biofuels Production
International Trade in Biofuels
ENERGY FOR COOKING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Household Energy Use in Developing Countries
Harmful Effects of Current Cooking Fuels and Technologies
Health
Environment
The Burden of Fuel Collection
Outlook for Household Biomass Use in Developing Countries
Improving the Way Biomass is Used
Modern Cooking Fuels and Stoves
Policy Implications
Figure 15.10: Residential Biomass Consumption and LPG Retail Price in Brazil
FOCUS ON BRAZIL
The Political and Economic Outlook
The Political Scene
The National Economy
Recent Trends and Developments in the Energy Sector
Outlook for Energy Demand
Outlook for Supply
Figure 16.10:Brazil’s Crude Oil Production by Source in the Reference Scenario
Natural Gas
Coal
Biomass
Power and Heat
Environmental Issues
Alternative Policy Scenarios
Investment
ANNEXES
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weo2006

weo2006

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Published by: humbertorc on Aug 23, 2011
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