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LM PHT CAO M
Lm pht s tip tc l ni lo ca kinh t Vit Nam trong giai o na cui nm 2011. m s on Sau khi l lm pht t ra c xu th tng chm li trong hai thng 5 v thng 6, l i lm pht thng 7 tng 1,17% so vi thng 6, ph v xu th ci thin tnh hnh l n lm pht ny. Cn nh thy l ngay c trong hai thng 5 v thng 6, thc t th lm pht khng gim n m vn tng, ch l tng chm hn cc thng trc. So vi u nm, ch s gi thng 7 n ch u ch nm 2011 tng hn 14%. So vi cng k nm trc, con s ny cn ng lo ngi hn khi mc tng ch s gi ln n 22,16%. Tnh hnh hin t cho thy mc tiu lm c ch i pht d 17% trong nm nay l khng d t c. di
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Chic bnh CPI 6 thng nm c u
Hng n v d v n ung dch ung thuc l May m mc Nh , in nc Thit Thi b v dng gia nh Thuc Thu v dch v y t Giao thng Bu chnh vi thng vin Gio d dc Vn ha, gi tr gii Hng ha v d v khc dch
Ghi ch: th th hin phn ng gp ca tc tng gi tng nhm ngnh trong t ng tng mc tng CPI 20,82% c thng 6/2011 so vi thng 6 nm 2010. V d nhm hng lng c ca i d, thc th phm v dch v n ung tng gi 30,15% trong nm 2011 v c t trng l 39,9% c ng t trong r tnh CPI do ng gp mc tng 12% trong tng m tng 20,82%, chim t ng mc trng 58,5%. Ph ng gp ny c th hin qua phn bnh kh l ng Phn n ln ca nhm hng lng th thc phm v dch v n ung nh trn th. thc Ngu GSO, Rongviet securities n: Mc tng gi hng lng th thc phm hin ti ca Vit Nam khng ch b chi phi c thc t bi yu t ni ti m cn b dn dt bi cc yu t c phn mang tnh ton c nh s u t n cu gia tng c gi hng lng thc thc phm ton cu. Ch s gi lng thc ca T ca s chc Lng Nng Hi Quc (FAO) cho thy ch s ny t c Hip tng khong 40% so vi thng 6 nm ngoi v cha c d hiu cho thy xu th tng gi ny s sm o chiu. du s Mc tng nhanh c gi ng v ng cc (u tng trn 50% so v thng 6 nm c ca u vi ngoi, trong gi ng cc tng trn 70%) ng vai tr quan tr ng trng trong vic thc y ch s gi lng thc ton cu tng nhanh. Trong khi , trong thng 7/2011, l c nhiu thng tin cho th gi mt s mt hng li u thy lng th thc phm vn ang tip tc tng ln ti cc nc ang pht tri thc c trin. V d, ti Trung Qu gi tht heo tng 57% trong thng 6. V vy, trong vi thng t gi hng Quc, y, ti, lng th th gii vn cn c th tip tc gi mc cao v e d lm pht ti cc thc c da nc ang pht tri c trin. Nguyn nhn l v ti nhng nc ny, lng th thc phm c thc chim m t trng ln trong r tiu dng c nhn. Theo s li ca Rabobank, t trng m mt u lng th thc phm chim trong r hng ha tnh ch s gi tiu dng c th ln n thc th 45% v Phillipines v 30% Trung Quc. n
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Ch s gi hng lng thc ton cu: lin tc tng t sau khng hong ti chnh
260.0 240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0
1/2008 5/2008 9/2008 1/2009 5/2009 9/2009 1/2010 5/2010 9/2010 1/2011 5/2011
Ngun: FAO Xu th tng gi ca hng lng thc thc phm do nhiu nguyn nhn, trong c nguyn nhn kh quan trng l thi tit bt li dn n mt ma ti mt s khu vc sn xut chnh to ra p lc vi ngun cung. Mt khc, thm ha ti Nht v bt n ti khu vc Trung ng v Chu Phi cng gp phn khin gi mt s hng nng sn tng (bn cnh vic thc y gi du tng). Ngoi tr mt hng go, a s cc mt hng ng cc khc u gp vn ngun cung khng theo kp nhu cu tiu dng. i vi hng sn xut t sa v tht, vn n t pha chi ph sn xut tng cao (v d chi ph thc n cho gia sc) v s st gim ca n gia sc v gia cm ti mt s nc sn xut chnh do tc ng ca dch bnh. Trong khi , vi mc tng trng cao, nhu cu chi tiu tiu dng trong nhiu nn kinh t ang pht trin nh Trung Quc vn c duy tr mc cao bt chp lm pht ti nhng nn kinh t ny. Xu hng chi tiu cho n ung kh c th thay i trong mt thi gian ngn do bt chp lm pht, nhu cu tiu dng hng lng thc thc phm c d on vn tip tc duy tr mc cao hn hoc ngang bng vi nm ngoi cho nhiu mt hng. Phn tch trn cho thy vic kim sot lm pht ca Vit Nam khng hn s t mc tiu ch vi vic tht cht tin t. Cho d vi nhng iu chnh mnh tay vi chi tiu cng, khng c ngha l gi c hng tiu dng c th gim c ngay nu gi hng ha th v lng thc thc phm trn th gii c th c nhng din bin bt li. V vy, mc tiu kim sot lm pht mc di 17% trong nm nay ca chnh ph c th kh m t c. Tuy nhin, iu khng c ngha l Vit Nam c th b ri mc tiu khng ch lm pht m ngc li phi gia tng cc n lc km ch lm pht gim bt tc ng tiu cc i vi nn kinh t v km ch k vng lm pht ca ngi dn. iu cng ng ngha vi vic t c kh nng chnh ph s b qua quan im tip tc tht cht tin t trong cc thng cui nm. iu ny dn n th thch th hai ca nn kinh t: thiu vn.
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Tng trng tn dng theo thng giai on 2010-2011
4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% N ov-10 Jan-10 M ar-10 M ay-10 Jul-10 S ep-10 Jan-11 M ar-11 M ay-11
Ngun:SBV Vic thiu ht ngun tn dng trong nn kinh t to ra nguy c vi cc doanh nghip s dng n by ti chnh (vay n) cao. Vic tng chm v tn dng ni chung v vic n lc duy tr tn dng cho khu vc phi sn xut xung mc 16% tng d n vo cui nm s thc y mt hiu ng gim n by ti chnh t ngt. Khng t nh u t v doanh nghip v s phi bn ti sn u t ca mnh vi gi thp (in hnh nh tnh hung gii chp i vi lnh vc chng khon gn y). i vi nhng lnh vc kinh doanh c xu th s dng n by ln nh chng khon v bt ng sn, tc ng t ngt h n by ti chnh khng ch c th to ra hiu ng xu i vi gi ti sn nhng cng c th ng thi y cc ngn hng cho nhng nh u t trn nhng th trng ny vay vo tnh th i mt vi nguy c khng thu hi c khon cho vay. Ni cch khc, tnh hung nn kinh t t ngt gim nhanh vic s dng n by ti chnh c th y h thng ngn hng i mt vi nguy c n xu gia tng. Mt h ly kh trnh khi ca vic suy gim trn th trng chng khon v th trng bt ng sn trong thi gian qua l vic nhiu khon cho vay i vi chng khon v bt ng sn c th tr thnh n xu. S thiu minh bch v cht lng cc khon vay ca cc ngn hng thng mi s t cc t chc xp hng tn nhim nc ngoi trc ni nghi ng v an ton ca tng ngn hng Vit Nam v c th s tin hnh r sot li xp hng tn nhim. iu ny hon ton c th to ra nh hng tm l xu i vi nhm c phiu ngn hng, cho d l cc xp hng chnh xc hay lch lc. Bi hc ca khng hong n di chun cc nc pht trin cho thy khng th xem nh vai tr ca tc ng dy chuyn trn th trng bt ng sn v mi lin h ca n i vi tn tht ca ngn hng. V vy, trong nhng thng cui nm, thch thc phi va thc thi chnh sch tht cht tin t chng lm pht li va m bo cht lng n ca h thng ngn hng khng b xung cp do vic tht cht ngun tn dng, nht l tn dng phi sn xut, l mt thch thc khng nh.
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Xt v cc yu t c bn, nhu cu ngun ngoi t b p cho thm ht thng mi cc thng cui nm nay cng khng t p lc hn nm trc. n thng 6/2011, nhp siu ca Vit Nam duy tr mc trn 6 t USD, xp x nh mc cng k ca nm 2010. So vi cng k ca nm 2010, xut khu cho thy mt mc tng trng ng lc quan (gn 30%) trong bi cnh kinh t th gii vn cn hi phc chm chp. Xut khu tng trng nhanh hn nhp khu trong 6 thng u nm 2011 (nhp khu ch tng khong 25%) c th l mt tn hiu ng mng. Tuy nhin, iu ng quan ngi rng liu trong cc thng cn li ca nm, doanh nghip xut khu c th tip tc duy tr c xu th ny hay khng? Ngoi ra, nhp siu hin nay chu nh hng khng nh t bin ng gi hng nguyn liu trn th gii. Do , nu gi hng ha trn th gii c bin ng ln, mc nhp siu c th tng nhanh hn. Trong khi , trong 6 thng u nm, mt ngun vn quan trng b p cho thm ht thng mi l ngun vn FDI c du hiu st gim. Vn thc hin FDI t 5,3 t USD trong 6 thng u nm, gim 1,9% so vi cng k nm 2010. S vn FDI ng k mi gim 49,9% so vi cng k nm ngoi. iu ny khng c g kh hiu khi m d bo v tng trng ca Vit Nam v nhng kh khn bt ngun t lm pht v tht cht tin t c cc nh ch ti chnh quc t d bo t u nm. D sao, s st gim nh ca ngun vn gii ngn cng khng to ra sc p ln trong ngn hn. Tuy nhin v di hn, nu xu th gii ngn FDI tip tc st gim, y s l mt mi lo ln cho Vit Nam trong bi cnh thm ht thng mi khng d ci thin nhanh chng cn mc kiu hi gi v nc kh m c th tng thm nhiu c. T nhng phn tch trn cho thy thch thc i vi iu hnh t gi trong giai on na cui nm nay ca Vit Nam c th vn tip tc phc tp v xt trong di hn chnh ph Vit Nam ng trc mt thch thc l phi nhanh chng gim nhp siu vo nn kinh t trnh phi ph thuc ln vo ngun vn bn ngoi nhm ti tr cho cc thm ht vng lai ca mnh. Nu khng thnh cng, ngha l nhp siu vn ln m FDI st gim nhiu, kh trnh khi vic Vit Nam s phi tip tc i vay n quc t ti tr cho cn cn vng lai ca mnh, v y mc n cng ca Vit Nam khi mc an ton. Nhp siu ca Vit Nam t u 2010 n nay
1.6 1.4 1.2 t UD S 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 01 10 /20 03 10 /20 05 10 /20 07 10 /20 09 10 /20 11 10 /20 01 11 /20 03 11 /20 05 11 /20
Ngun: GSO
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Bn bo co ny c chun b cho mc ch duy nht l cung cp thng tin v khng nhm a ra bt k ngh hay hng dn mua bn chng khon c th no. Cc quan im v khuyn co c trnh by trong bn bo co ny khng tnh n s khc bit v mc tiu, nhu cu, chin lc v hon cnh c th ca tng nh u t. Ngoi ra, nh u t cng thc c th c cc xung t li ch nh hng n tnh khch quan ca bn bo co ny. Nh u t nn xem bo co ny nh mt ngun tham kho khi a ra quyt nh u t v phi chu ton b trch nhim i vi quyt nh u t ca chnh mnh. RONGVIET SECURITIES tuyt i khng chu trch nhim i vi ton b hay bt k thit hi no, hay s kin b coi l thit hi, i vi vic s dng ton b hoc tng phn thng tin hay kin no ca bn bo co ny. Ton b cc quan im th hin trong bo co ny u l quan im c nhn ca ngi phn tch. Khng c bt k mt phn thu nhp no ca ngi phn tch lin quan trc tip hoc gin tip n cc khuyn co hay quan im c th trong bn co co ny. Thng tin s dng trong bo co ny c RONGVIET SECURITIES thu thp t nhng ngun m chng ti cho l ng tin cy. Tuy nhin, chng ti khng m bo rng nhng thng tin ny l hon chnh hoc chnh xc. Cc quan im v c tnh trong nh gi ca chng ti c gi tr n ngy ra bo co v c th thay i m khng cn bo co trc. Bn bo co ny c gi bn quyn v l ti sn ca RONGVIET SECURITIES. Mi s sao chp, chuyn giao hoc sa i trong bt k trng hp no m khng c s ng ca RONGVIET SECURITIES u tri lut. Bn quyn thuc RONGVIET SECURITIES, 2011. Chi nhnh Si Gn Tng 4 Ta nh Estar 147 149 V Vn Tn Qun 3 TP.HCM Tel: (84 8) 6299 8599 Chi nhnh H Ni 74 B Triu Qun Hon Kim H Ni Tel: (84 4) 6288 2006 Fax: (84 4) 6288 2008
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